Anusien
07-04-2010, 05:40 PM
So, this isn't a long report; I really only played three rounds. But some content is better than no content, right? (It is pretty complex; I have the advantage of writing this while watching replays. I tried to give some detail on mistakes and thought processes to make it interesting.)
Some things to know about the Legacy Daily Events. Daily Events fire I guess one a day (maybe more), at a variety of times in a variety of formats. It's 4 rounds straight Swiss, with prize payouts at 3-1 or better. It's MTGO so you can't draw. The real oddity is that you can replay completed matches. So when you get paired against somebody in round 2, you can watch 2 or 3 minutes of their round 1 match and know what they're playing before you make any decisions.
So I was bored on the 3rd and had just lost a draft with a solid deck. I saw a Legacy Daily event start to fire, and I joined. Here's what I joined with:
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Bridge from Below
4 Narcomoeba
4 Ichorid
2 Dread Return
1 Terastodon
4 Breakthrough
4 Careful Study
4 Tireless Tribe
4 Putrid Imp
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
1 Darkblast
1 Golgari Thug
4 Gemstone Mine
4 City of Brass
4 Cephalid Coliseum
3 Tarnished Citadel
Sideboard:
4 Ravenous Trap
1 Ancestor's Chosen
2 Chain of Vapor
4 Ancient Grudge
4 Ray of Revelation
Pretty standard. The maindeck is mostly right. In paper I expect a lot more opposition to Dredge, and I have the 12th dredger instead of the 4th Careful Study. I'm not 100% on that change. The maindeck Terastodon is so that I'm not completely dead to something like a turn 1 Blood Moon or a Ghostly Prison or Elephant Grass. The sideboard is mostly right; 4 Grudge 4 Ray 1 Chosen is absolutely right. The Ravenous Traps are mostly there for the mirror since I don't have Leylines at the moment, and the Chain of Vapor are a catch-all because I didn't know what to expect. The thing about Dredge is that you can be a little loose in the sideboard because most of the sideboarded games aren't close, one way or another.
Round 1: The Bye!
I know, right? I spend some time looking over other decks in the tournament, but this is a bit of a mess because you can't see replays until somebody has finished their match. I notice LSV is playing Nightmare's Mosswort Bridge deck. There is something like one other Dredge player, two Mosswort Bridge players, and tons and tons and tons of Zoo players. Looking at the Dredge matchup and what's going on in the previous decklists, it seems like most people just have Faerie Macabre and Tormod's Crypt as hate. If people aren't also playing Relic, it might be time to dig back out the Pithing Needles.
1-0
Round 2: LSV (Nightmare's Mosswort Bridge deck)
...yeah. I'm intimidated as hell here, but I know what he's playing, and he doesn't know what I'm playing. I say hi, and ask him how he likes Worldly Tutor in the deck, and he says he's still testing. He's missed 3-1 in at least 2 Legacy Dailies in a row, all seemingly with the deck. LSV ends up getting his second loss in round 3 and being eliminated from the event.
Game 1: I lose the die roll and decide to make this sketchy keep. my hand is Gemstone Mine, 2 City of Brass, Putrid Imp, Tireless Tribe, Careful Study, Breakthrough. Against blue decks I've been experimenting with making keeps that count on them fighting for the first few turns over my outlets. The best thing that can happen here is for him to Daze my Tribe, Force my Imp and then me to blow him out because I have so much gas. It's a risk, and I know it, but I think it's justified since I know he's playing a blue deck with Force and Daze. Like a sack, it basically goes perfect for me. I draw Coliseum and he Dazes Tribe. I draw another Breakthrough after that, and he Forces Imp. Careful study doesn't find a Dredger, but the first Breakthrough (X=1) finds two. The second Breakthrough seals it, and when I Therapy him, he was short on gas.
I don't know what hate he has, and I don't know my sideboarding for sure. Conley Woods just had a Crypt and a few Faerie Macabre; I think I sideboarded -1 Terastodon, -1 Darkblast, +2 Chain of Vapor.
I mulligan a hand that can't cast anything, and LSV does too. I keep a slow 6 with Putrid Imp, one land, 3 Stinkweed Imps and Ichorid. It's playable and I don't want to ship away a mediocre 6 in case I end up at 4. I draw another Putrid Imp, but the first one resolved so I'm okay. He EOT Worldly Tutors for Faerie Macabre and draws it, but he doesn't use it on my turn when I go to dredge. I think this was a mistake, but if I have another dredger he straight-up loses. He's probably hoping to hit creatures/Bridges to slow me down. Anyway, I get to dredge and play another creature. On his turn 3 he misses his third land drop and Thoughtseizes me; he basically whiffs since my hand is still 3x Dredger, Ichorid. I drop Ichorid into the graveyard and attack for 8. My draw step dredge flipped another Ichorid and a Therapy. I still don't have any Bridges so I don't use Therapy; he uses Macabre in my attack step to eat the Ichorid and the Therapy. I should have eaten a creature to Therapy him here; he rightly capitalized on the mistake. He draws, and concedes, being at 9 with a land and a fetchland, facing 8 damage.
2-0
Round 3: Lucindo (Survival Bant/r)
I scout lucindo during the break and see Force, Ponder, Goyf, War Monk, Volcanic Island in game1. I basically put him on Firespout Threshold of some sort. On a whim I check out game 2 from Lucindo and am instantly glad I did: Lucindo is actually playing Survival Bant of some sort. Despite the risk of Iona, I think this is better for me because Survival is so slow. Also, I almost win by default because Lucindo disconnects and lags and starts game 2 10 minutes down (out of 30). So clocking him out is a reasonable possibility.
Game 1: I lose the die roll and keep Tribe, 2 Dredger, Bridge, 3 land. Tribe resolves. I draw a brick and he lands a turn 2 Survival. My Dredges are pretty weak; in 10 cards I hit 2 Therapy as the only reasonable cards. I make a play for it, casting Thug on 2, Stinkweed on 3 and Therapying them away once I pitch a Bridge, but I don't have the clock I need to beat Iona. He actually has Retainers in play and I hit it with Therapy on the second pass, counting on him only running 1, but he has Quirion Ranger on the battlefield and Eternal Witness in hand. His turn 4 involves making some mana guys; I bring back a Troll that turns out to be just 5/5. If I had dredged Terastodon to kill Survival I could have stopped him from getting Iona, I could have been okay, but I don't and he makes Iona on turn 5 and kills me shortly after.
I saw Lucindo play against morgan_coke during round 2 and he brought in Crypts and had probably a singleton Faerie Macabre to Survival up.
-1 Terastodon, -1 Ichorid, -1 Careful Study, -1 Golgari Thug, +2 Ray of Revelation, +2 Chain of Vapor.
I could bring in all kinds of hate, but I don't actually need to shut him out completely, I just need to slow him down. The Chain of Vapors come in to not be dead to Iona, and the Rays to hopefully stop his Survival before he can get going. It's more of a threat than his Crypts.
Game 2: I'm on the play, and he's starting game 2 with just 10 minutes on the clock. My 7 has 4 lands, 2 Bridges and Ray, so I ship it back. Lucindo also mulls to 6. My 6 card hand has no lands, so I ship it back with a sense of despair. He also goes to 5, and I keep 2 Cephalid Coliseum, City of Brass, Narcomoeba, Darkblast. Darkblast is the best Dredger to see here, because I can cast it the moment he does anything and do double duty. I play Narcomeoba on turn 2 and another on turn 3, but I don't Darkblast them because I want to keep my clock. I do Darkblast his Goyf on turn 3 so I can start dredging. On my turn 4 I have a big enough graveyard to make Coliseum live (although I make a small mistake not leaving City of Brass up instead of Coliseum). I crack a Coliseum and end up Dread Returning a 7/7 Troll and an 8/8 Troll. He draws, makes a Rhox War Monk, and packs it up. The whole affair took like 2 minutes.
Game 3: He's on the play with 7:40. I'm on the draw with an awesome hand: 2 Tribe, 1 Imp, 2 land, Breakthrough, 1 dredger (Golgari Thug). There's basically only one way he can win here, and that's if he opens on either Crypt or turn 1 Noble Hierarch, turn 2 Survival fetching Macabre taking my only dredger, and I don't draw another one. He makes a Hierarch, I draw Coliseum, and he makes with the Survival + Macabre. I draw ANOTHER Breakthrough and fill the board with my outlets. My first Breakthrough finds me Chain of Vapor but he makes an Iona naming black and has Force of Will for my Chain of Vapor. I end the game not finding the second Dredger being 20 cards in, and he has 3:45 left on the clock.
2-1
Round 4: QuiGonJinn985 (New Horizons)
This match is basically the reason I wrote the report.
Game 1: I win the die roll and keep Land, Tribe, Darkblast, Therapy, Narcomeoba, two more Dredgers. He wastes my land and then a turn later he Swords my Tribe (I dump my hand in response). I start dredging the hard way, but I keep accumulating Trolls and Imps in my hand, meaning I can't use both Ichorids I dredge. I bring a Terastodon onto the battlefield, eating nothing, but I can't attack because he can double block and trade one guy for it and my bridges. He attacks me down to 3, but I can drop him to lethal and let my guys die to accumulate some Zombies. I screw up here by attacking with Terastodon and Ichorid despite him being at 15, and his double Plow seals the game up. (One Ichorid had to eat the other for food).
I figure he has Crypt.
-1 Terastodon, -1 Golgari Thug, -1 Ichorid, -1 Careful Study, +4 Ancient Grudge.
Game 2: My 7 has lands and Imp, but no Dredgers. I keep an awesome hand of Imp, Ichorid, land, Coliseum, Careful Study, Dredger. He Plows the Imp, and I drop the Troll and the Ichorid. Naturally he also has Crypt. He lets me Dredge, and I hit an Ancient Grudge. I use it right away. I Careful Study Troll into the graveyard, but he Wastelands my Coliseum. I dredge a few times and end up with 3 Grave-Trolls in hand (sometimes if you can, it's right to dredge an Imp so you can Dread Return Troll, but I didn't have that option). On his turn 4, I have 2 Narcomoebas and he plays an EE for 0 when I have one Bridge. I bring back an Ichorid and attack; he plays Clique to block (sending a Force to the bottom, apparently). At this point I've just dredged Darkblast to hand, and have two Bridges in the graveyard. My best path to victory is to bring back a giant Troll and kill him before he can recover. So I let him block a Narcomoeba and kill my own guy with Darkblast before damage. He's now tapped below EE mana. Darkblast gives me 2 Zombies, Therapy away Ichorid to clear my hand of Trolls gives me 2 more, and I bring back an 8/8 Troll. Now I kill Clique with Darkblast and smash him down to 1; he failed to find 2x Plow + Crypt in two draws plus cycling Horizon Canopy, and he scoops.
Game 3: My opening 7 has only Coliseum for mana and only Darkblast as a dredger. I ship it. My 6 is risky again: 2 land, Breakthrough, Careful Study, Ichorid, Ancient Grudge. I'm on the draw here too. I draw into Imp which is about perfect, although my bluff is revealed when he doesn't kill it and I have to draw off the top. He played a Windswept Heath turn 1 and misses his second land drop. I draw Therapy and figure since he can't have Crypt or he'd play it, he can't have Brainstorm/Ponder or he'd play it. I figure if he had Daze or Force he would have stopped the Imp. At this point, the only thing I fear is him finding a second land and raining Tarmogoyfs on me before I find a dredger, so I name Tarmogoyf. He responds by hitting Putrid Imp with StP. I don't ditch Ichorid because I might need the Careful Study food. I miss on Therapy, his hand is: Force of Will, 2 Stifle, Knight of the Reliquary, Terravore, Bojuka Bog. I don't understand him letting Putrid Imp resolve; maybe he drew the Force late. I play Careful Study and he Forces. Oh yeah, and he topdecks Crypt, which is actually fine for me. I draw Coliseum, which is lame because he still has Stifle, and kill the Crypt. As this point he still has Bog in hand, so I don't use Breakthrough for X=0; I need to play this slowly. He's found a second land, but he seems unwilling to play Bojuka Bog so he can make a Knight of the Reliquary on the next turn. On the next turn I make a Narcomoeba, and on the next turn I draw a Dredger, and cast Breakthrough X=2 (I'm at 11 now from self-inflicted damage!). Luckily I get to keep Breakthrough and a Tireless Tribe. I've had to bin Ichorid and Troll, so I'm okay. Basically I need to save Breakthrough until either I get to kill him by making a million Zombies or he uses Bog. He does pull the trigger on Bog, and I draw a third(!) Breakthrough. I cast the Tribe and the Breakthrough X=1. I do in fact bin a dredger, and at this point he basically can't win: I have Coliseum, Breakthrough, Imp with dredgers in the graveyard. I cast Breakthrough X=0, he Stifles a Narcomoeba, I coliseum down to 1 card in library (which was a mistake; I like to be more conservative than that), but he's at 13 and I have 8 Zombies and a 17/17 Troll so he can't win. Indeed, he calls me lucky and scoops.
3-1
Some things to know about the Legacy Daily Events. Daily Events fire I guess one a day (maybe more), at a variety of times in a variety of formats. It's 4 rounds straight Swiss, with prize payouts at 3-1 or better. It's MTGO so you can't draw. The real oddity is that you can replay completed matches. So when you get paired against somebody in round 2, you can watch 2 or 3 minutes of their round 1 match and know what they're playing before you make any decisions.
So I was bored on the 3rd and had just lost a draft with a solid deck. I saw a Legacy Daily event start to fire, and I joined. Here's what I joined with:
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Bridge from Below
4 Narcomoeba
4 Ichorid
2 Dread Return
1 Terastodon
4 Breakthrough
4 Careful Study
4 Tireless Tribe
4 Putrid Imp
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
1 Darkblast
1 Golgari Thug
4 Gemstone Mine
4 City of Brass
4 Cephalid Coliseum
3 Tarnished Citadel
Sideboard:
4 Ravenous Trap
1 Ancestor's Chosen
2 Chain of Vapor
4 Ancient Grudge
4 Ray of Revelation
Pretty standard. The maindeck is mostly right. In paper I expect a lot more opposition to Dredge, and I have the 12th dredger instead of the 4th Careful Study. I'm not 100% on that change. The maindeck Terastodon is so that I'm not completely dead to something like a turn 1 Blood Moon or a Ghostly Prison or Elephant Grass. The sideboard is mostly right; 4 Grudge 4 Ray 1 Chosen is absolutely right. The Ravenous Traps are mostly there for the mirror since I don't have Leylines at the moment, and the Chain of Vapor are a catch-all because I didn't know what to expect. The thing about Dredge is that you can be a little loose in the sideboard because most of the sideboarded games aren't close, one way or another.
Round 1: The Bye!
I know, right? I spend some time looking over other decks in the tournament, but this is a bit of a mess because you can't see replays until somebody has finished their match. I notice LSV is playing Nightmare's Mosswort Bridge deck. There is something like one other Dredge player, two Mosswort Bridge players, and tons and tons and tons of Zoo players. Looking at the Dredge matchup and what's going on in the previous decklists, it seems like most people just have Faerie Macabre and Tormod's Crypt as hate. If people aren't also playing Relic, it might be time to dig back out the Pithing Needles.
1-0
Round 2: LSV (Nightmare's Mosswort Bridge deck)
...yeah. I'm intimidated as hell here, but I know what he's playing, and he doesn't know what I'm playing. I say hi, and ask him how he likes Worldly Tutor in the deck, and he says he's still testing. He's missed 3-1 in at least 2 Legacy Dailies in a row, all seemingly with the deck. LSV ends up getting his second loss in round 3 and being eliminated from the event.
Game 1: I lose the die roll and decide to make this sketchy keep. my hand is Gemstone Mine, 2 City of Brass, Putrid Imp, Tireless Tribe, Careful Study, Breakthrough. Against blue decks I've been experimenting with making keeps that count on them fighting for the first few turns over my outlets. The best thing that can happen here is for him to Daze my Tribe, Force my Imp and then me to blow him out because I have so much gas. It's a risk, and I know it, but I think it's justified since I know he's playing a blue deck with Force and Daze. Like a sack, it basically goes perfect for me. I draw Coliseum and he Dazes Tribe. I draw another Breakthrough after that, and he Forces Imp. Careful study doesn't find a Dredger, but the first Breakthrough (X=1) finds two. The second Breakthrough seals it, and when I Therapy him, he was short on gas.
I don't know what hate he has, and I don't know my sideboarding for sure. Conley Woods just had a Crypt and a few Faerie Macabre; I think I sideboarded -1 Terastodon, -1 Darkblast, +2 Chain of Vapor.
I mulligan a hand that can't cast anything, and LSV does too. I keep a slow 6 with Putrid Imp, one land, 3 Stinkweed Imps and Ichorid. It's playable and I don't want to ship away a mediocre 6 in case I end up at 4. I draw another Putrid Imp, but the first one resolved so I'm okay. He EOT Worldly Tutors for Faerie Macabre and draws it, but he doesn't use it on my turn when I go to dredge. I think this was a mistake, but if I have another dredger he straight-up loses. He's probably hoping to hit creatures/Bridges to slow me down. Anyway, I get to dredge and play another creature. On his turn 3 he misses his third land drop and Thoughtseizes me; he basically whiffs since my hand is still 3x Dredger, Ichorid. I drop Ichorid into the graveyard and attack for 8. My draw step dredge flipped another Ichorid and a Therapy. I still don't have any Bridges so I don't use Therapy; he uses Macabre in my attack step to eat the Ichorid and the Therapy. I should have eaten a creature to Therapy him here; he rightly capitalized on the mistake. He draws, and concedes, being at 9 with a land and a fetchland, facing 8 damage.
2-0
Round 3: Lucindo (Survival Bant/r)
I scout lucindo during the break and see Force, Ponder, Goyf, War Monk, Volcanic Island in game1. I basically put him on Firespout Threshold of some sort. On a whim I check out game 2 from Lucindo and am instantly glad I did: Lucindo is actually playing Survival Bant of some sort. Despite the risk of Iona, I think this is better for me because Survival is so slow. Also, I almost win by default because Lucindo disconnects and lags and starts game 2 10 minutes down (out of 30). So clocking him out is a reasonable possibility.
Game 1: I lose the die roll and keep Tribe, 2 Dredger, Bridge, 3 land. Tribe resolves. I draw a brick and he lands a turn 2 Survival. My Dredges are pretty weak; in 10 cards I hit 2 Therapy as the only reasonable cards. I make a play for it, casting Thug on 2, Stinkweed on 3 and Therapying them away once I pitch a Bridge, but I don't have the clock I need to beat Iona. He actually has Retainers in play and I hit it with Therapy on the second pass, counting on him only running 1, but he has Quirion Ranger on the battlefield and Eternal Witness in hand. His turn 4 involves making some mana guys; I bring back a Troll that turns out to be just 5/5. If I had dredged Terastodon to kill Survival I could have stopped him from getting Iona, I could have been okay, but I don't and he makes Iona on turn 5 and kills me shortly after.
I saw Lucindo play against morgan_coke during round 2 and he brought in Crypts and had probably a singleton Faerie Macabre to Survival up.
-1 Terastodon, -1 Ichorid, -1 Careful Study, -1 Golgari Thug, +2 Ray of Revelation, +2 Chain of Vapor.
I could bring in all kinds of hate, but I don't actually need to shut him out completely, I just need to slow him down. The Chain of Vapors come in to not be dead to Iona, and the Rays to hopefully stop his Survival before he can get going. It's more of a threat than his Crypts.
Game 2: I'm on the play, and he's starting game 2 with just 10 minutes on the clock. My 7 has 4 lands, 2 Bridges and Ray, so I ship it back. Lucindo also mulls to 6. My 6 card hand has no lands, so I ship it back with a sense of despair. He also goes to 5, and I keep 2 Cephalid Coliseum, City of Brass, Narcomoeba, Darkblast. Darkblast is the best Dredger to see here, because I can cast it the moment he does anything and do double duty. I play Narcomeoba on turn 2 and another on turn 3, but I don't Darkblast them because I want to keep my clock. I do Darkblast his Goyf on turn 3 so I can start dredging. On my turn 4 I have a big enough graveyard to make Coliseum live (although I make a small mistake not leaving City of Brass up instead of Coliseum). I crack a Coliseum and end up Dread Returning a 7/7 Troll and an 8/8 Troll. He draws, makes a Rhox War Monk, and packs it up. The whole affair took like 2 minutes.
Game 3: He's on the play with 7:40. I'm on the draw with an awesome hand: 2 Tribe, 1 Imp, 2 land, Breakthrough, 1 dredger (Golgari Thug). There's basically only one way he can win here, and that's if he opens on either Crypt or turn 1 Noble Hierarch, turn 2 Survival fetching Macabre taking my only dredger, and I don't draw another one. He makes a Hierarch, I draw Coliseum, and he makes with the Survival + Macabre. I draw ANOTHER Breakthrough and fill the board with my outlets. My first Breakthrough finds me Chain of Vapor but he makes an Iona naming black and has Force of Will for my Chain of Vapor. I end the game not finding the second Dredger being 20 cards in, and he has 3:45 left on the clock.
2-1
Round 4: QuiGonJinn985 (New Horizons)
This match is basically the reason I wrote the report.
Game 1: I win the die roll and keep Land, Tribe, Darkblast, Therapy, Narcomeoba, two more Dredgers. He wastes my land and then a turn later he Swords my Tribe (I dump my hand in response). I start dredging the hard way, but I keep accumulating Trolls and Imps in my hand, meaning I can't use both Ichorids I dredge. I bring a Terastodon onto the battlefield, eating nothing, but I can't attack because he can double block and trade one guy for it and my bridges. He attacks me down to 3, but I can drop him to lethal and let my guys die to accumulate some Zombies. I screw up here by attacking with Terastodon and Ichorid despite him being at 15, and his double Plow seals the game up. (One Ichorid had to eat the other for food).
I figure he has Crypt.
-1 Terastodon, -1 Golgari Thug, -1 Ichorid, -1 Careful Study, +4 Ancient Grudge.
Game 2: My 7 has lands and Imp, but no Dredgers. I keep an awesome hand of Imp, Ichorid, land, Coliseum, Careful Study, Dredger. He Plows the Imp, and I drop the Troll and the Ichorid. Naturally he also has Crypt. He lets me Dredge, and I hit an Ancient Grudge. I use it right away. I Careful Study Troll into the graveyard, but he Wastelands my Coliseum. I dredge a few times and end up with 3 Grave-Trolls in hand (sometimes if you can, it's right to dredge an Imp so you can Dread Return Troll, but I didn't have that option). On his turn 4, I have 2 Narcomoebas and he plays an EE for 0 when I have one Bridge. I bring back an Ichorid and attack; he plays Clique to block (sending a Force to the bottom, apparently). At this point I've just dredged Darkblast to hand, and have two Bridges in the graveyard. My best path to victory is to bring back a giant Troll and kill him before he can recover. So I let him block a Narcomoeba and kill my own guy with Darkblast before damage. He's now tapped below EE mana. Darkblast gives me 2 Zombies, Therapy away Ichorid to clear my hand of Trolls gives me 2 more, and I bring back an 8/8 Troll. Now I kill Clique with Darkblast and smash him down to 1; he failed to find 2x Plow + Crypt in two draws plus cycling Horizon Canopy, and he scoops.
Game 3: My opening 7 has only Coliseum for mana and only Darkblast as a dredger. I ship it. My 6 is risky again: 2 land, Breakthrough, Careful Study, Ichorid, Ancient Grudge. I'm on the draw here too. I draw into Imp which is about perfect, although my bluff is revealed when he doesn't kill it and I have to draw off the top. He played a Windswept Heath turn 1 and misses his second land drop. I draw Therapy and figure since he can't have Crypt or he'd play it, he can't have Brainstorm/Ponder or he'd play it. I figure if he had Daze or Force he would have stopped the Imp. At this point, the only thing I fear is him finding a second land and raining Tarmogoyfs on me before I find a dredger, so I name Tarmogoyf. He responds by hitting Putrid Imp with StP. I don't ditch Ichorid because I might need the Careful Study food. I miss on Therapy, his hand is: Force of Will, 2 Stifle, Knight of the Reliquary, Terravore, Bojuka Bog. I don't understand him letting Putrid Imp resolve; maybe he drew the Force late. I play Careful Study and he Forces. Oh yeah, and he topdecks Crypt, which is actually fine for me. I draw Coliseum, which is lame because he still has Stifle, and kill the Crypt. As this point he still has Bog in hand, so I don't use Breakthrough for X=0; I need to play this slowly. He's found a second land, but he seems unwilling to play Bojuka Bog so he can make a Knight of the Reliquary on the next turn. On the next turn I make a Narcomoeba, and on the next turn I draw a Dredger, and cast Breakthrough X=2 (I'm at 11 now from self-inflicted damage!). Luckily I get to keep Breakthrough and a Tireless Tribe. I've had to bin Ichorid and Troll, so I'm okay. Basically I need to save Breakthrough until either I get to kill him by making a million Zombies or he uses Bog. He does pull the trigger on Bog, and I draw a third(!) Breakthrough. I cast the Tribe and the Breakthrough X=1. I do in fact bin a dredger, and at this point he basically can't win: I have Coliseum, Breakthrough, Imp with dredgers in the graveyard. I cast Breakthrough X=0, he Stifles a Narcomoeba, I coliseum down to 1 card in library (which was a mistake; I like to be more conservative than that), but he's at 13 and I have 8 Zombies and a 17/17 Troll so he can't win. Indeed, he calls me lucky and scoops.
3-1