[Article] Modern Twelvepost: Not Even Once (PT Phily's boogeyman?)

[metamet]

Modern Twelvepost: Not Even Once (http://www.quietspeculation.com/2011/09/modern-twelvepost-not-even-once/)

"Josh Rayden has enjoyed mild success on the SCG Open series, with Top 8 and 9th place Legacy finishes. He has played Magic since Ice Age and worked for Pastimes, Inc., the Premier Tournament Organizer out of Chicago for three years. A dedicated Eternal fan, Josh recently finished 10th at the 2011 Vintage Championships.

This week he brings us a slew of videos and a Twelvepost brew for this weekend’s Modern Pro Tour in Philadelphia. Convinced of the deck’s nimble brute strength, he believes it’s the deck to beat."

From the videos (and writeup) posted, it seems that this deck can do some absolutely absurd things unchecked, especially with the inclusion of Amulet of Vigor. From the article:

"The things that Amulet of Vigor allows you to do are certainly the most impressive.

Turn four double Primeval Titan? Sure, no problem.

Turn five double Primeval Titan and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn? Easy.

How about casting Scapeshift on turn four off of four Forests and then casting Primeval Titan and Tooth and Nail with entwine on that very same turn? Not only is it possible, you can do with with 6 mana left over!"

Thoughts on this? This deck seems pretty resilient and quick... what're people doing as a plan against this deck? What just crushes it?

[SpikeyMikey]

12Post is definitely the DtB going into Philly. It's definitely not the deck to be playing, but it will be a presence and it's a good bet against aggro since it has access to goodies like Batterskull, Wurmcoil Engine and Glimmerpost to buy itself time against red zone decks.

It remains to be seen what the best build of GreenPost will be, but at least the consensus has settled on Green as the best primary color for the deck (*cough* called this long time ago *cough*). I do expect it to make T8, but I will be pretty shocked if it wins the whole thing.

Personal opinion and 30 second judgement call: redundancy is the key for 12Post decks. Running cutesy stuff like Amulet of Vigor gives you more explosiveness but let's be honest, a deck that's dropping turn 5 Eldrazi is fairly explosive anyway. You don't really need to be able to cast 2 of them on turn 5. One is more than enough. I'm calling it Danger of Cool Things. Run things that increase your redundancy and decrease your vulnerability to countermagic. The big advantage of 12post is that it smacks both control and aggro around. Board heavily for combo, because you're not beating the T4 combo decks main, especially if you're not running 4xBeast Within.

[Gui]

There's a forum for modern articles and format discussion.

[Zilla]

Moved to Modern forum, since it's a Modern article.

[dontbiteitholmes]

Wow Mikey, I can't believe you don't think 12post will top 8 at the PT. I think it will top 8 multiple times just on complete format saturation. I mean even if it's not the best deck in the format it's still very explosive and even if it's the most hated on deck I still think at least one or two if not more will slip into top 8 just because post will probably be around 15-20% of the meta and all the hate except LD loses to Beast Within anyways.

[Phoenix Ignition]

Wow Mikey, I can't believe you don't think 12post will top 8 at the PT. I think it will top 8 multiple times just on complete format saturation. I mean even if it's not the best deck in the format it's still very explosive and even if it's the most hated on deck I still think at least one or two if not more will slip into top 8 just because post will probably be around 15-20% of the meta and all the hate except LD loses to Beast Within anyways.

Bribery with ANY other disruption flat out beats 12 post. Thanks for the emrakul! Any blue player would be absolutely nuts to not run 2-4 in their sideboard this weekend.

[Koby]

Most lists run Karn to deal with control against Bribery. I think that them getting to 5 mana isn't as big of a deal, since 12post will probably be way far ahead, or already be disrupting the mana base with Plow Under, Reap & Sow, or Beast Within.

I've also cut Kozilek, since drawing 4 cards for a 12/12 pathable creature is not the best. I'd rather use Ulamog to deal with unsightly threats.

[SpikeyMikey]

Wow Mikey, I can't believe you don't think 12post will top 8 at the PT. I think it will top 8 multiple times just on complete format saturation. I mean even if it's not the best deck in the format it's still very explosive and even if it's the most hated on deck I still think at least one or two if not more will slip into top 8 just because post will probably be around 15-20% of the meta and all the hate except LD loses to Beast Within anyways.

I do think it will make top 8. I just said I would be shocked if it takes 1st. By the time T8 rolls around, I think it will be 12Post and decks that beat 12Post that dodged all the Zoo and all the tier 2 BS in the early and middle rounds. But yes, 1-3 copies in the T8 sounds about right. It really is a strong deck. As Phoenix says, Bribery can be a problem. Of course, there aren't many blue decks that I would want to be running going into the PT. Splinter Twin is the only one that really comes to mind and that beats 12Post just by comboing out too fast for Post to react. Beast Within helps, but honestly between Spell Pierce and Spellskite and the fact that they can tap your Cloudposts down at will with Pestermites and Deceiver Exarchs means you're going to have a very hard time taking a match from Twin. I would expect Splinter Twin to be the top deck when the dust settles.

My expectations for T8:
1-3 GreenPost, with one of them being possibly a BrownPost instead.

1-2 Splinter Twin. This is the best deck for the metagame; as long as you don't run into too many Zoo decks.

1 Pod/Persist. I think my Persist listing is far stronger than the Pod deck from MTGO, but that has more recognition and is more likely to be played

1-2 Zoo or Jund

1 4-5 color control. Something with Cryptic Commands and Mulldrifter and a bunch of bad counters. I hate to say it, because control is a piss poor choice in Modern, but someone will play it well and get all the right matchups.

Maybe 1 other combo deck, Hive Mind, Pyromancer's Ascension or Dragonstorm.

Maybe 1 Affinity. I just don't have much testing against Affinity to say where it rates so I'm going to hedge my bets and say it might just make T8.

[daugarten]

My expectations for T8:

I agree, and this is why I'm playing Death & Taxes. I will say that I have to yet to come across a Splinter Twin deck in Modern but I know I've got answers for it MB and SB.

[Phoenix Ignition]

Most lists run Karn to deal with control against Bribery. I think that them getting to 5 mana isn't as big of a deal, since 12post will probably be way far ahead, or already be disrupting the mana base with Plow Under, Reap & Sow, or Beast Within.

I've also cut Kozilek, since drawing 4 cards for a 12/12 pathable creature is not the best. I'd rather use Ulamog to deal with unsightly threats.

Most lists run Karn to deal with Bribery? I mean, fine, you can say you have a card in your deck that handles with Bribery, but the fact that you have exactly 1 turn to find/play it after bribery hits is kind of stupid. Aggro decks have sideboards against combo, but you don't see them being the favored matchup. If emrakul gets 1 swing off you're most likely boned.

[Koby]

Most lists run Karn to deal with Bribery? I mean, fine, you can say you have a card in your deck that handles with Bribery, but the fact that you have exactly 1 turn to find/play it after bribery hits is kind of stupid. Aggro decks have sideboards against combo, but you don't see them being the favored matchup. If emrakul gets 1 swing off you're most likely boned.

Err, no I misspoke. Most lists run Karn against control. Those control decks also bring in Bribery, so it's an answer that would already be brought in.

[SpikeyMikey]

I do think it will make top 8. I just said I would be shocked if it takes 1st. By the time T8 rolls around, I think it will be 12Post and decks that beat 12Post that dodged all the Zoo and all the tier 2 BS in the early and middle rounds. But yes, 1-3 copies in the T8 sounds about right. It really is a strong deck. As Phoenix says, Bribery can be a problem. Of course, there aren't many blue decks that I would want to be running going into the PT. Splinter Twin is the only one that really comes to mind and that beats 12Post just by comboing out too fast for Post to react. Beast Within helps, but honestly between Spell Pierce and Spellskite and the fact that they can tap your Cloudposts down at will with Pestermites and Deceiver Exarchs means you're going to have a very hard time taking a match from Twin. I would expect Splinter Twin to be the top deck when the dust settles.

My expectations for T8:
1-3 GreenPost, with one of them being possibly a BrownPost instead.

1-2 Splinter Twin. This is the best deck for the metagame; as long as you don't run into too many Zoo decks.

1 Pod/Persist. I think my Persist listing is far stronger than the Pod deck from MTGO, but that has more recognition and is more likely to be played

1-2 Zoo or Jund

1 4-5 color control. Something with Cryptic Commands and Mulldrifter and a bunch of bad counters. I hate to say it, because control is a piss poor choice in Modern, but someone will play it well and get all the right matchups.

Maybe 1 other combo deck, Hive Mind, Pyromancer's Ascension or Dragonstorm.

Maybe 1 Affinity. I just don't have much testing against Affinity to say where it rates so I'm going to hedge my bets and say it might just make T8.

Actual T8

2 Pyromancer's Ascension
2 Splinter Twin
1 GreenPost (w/ Breach)
1 Zoo
1 Affinity
1 Infect

I didn't predict that Ascension would be able to put two copies in the T8 or Infect at all. Otherwise, I did a fairly good job. Note that both of the Splinter Twin decks that made T8 were heavily meta'd against Zoo, the one was maining Firespout. I'm a little surprised that the lone GreenPost was splashing red instead of white. I feel like ST is as good or better than TtB and having access to Angel's Grace and Suppression Field post board against combo makes me feel a lot more fuzzy than just hoping they have a slow hand. Unless that Greenpost gets paired up against Zoo or Affinity, he's going to have a very difficult time advancing to the semi-finals.

Also, Zoo is the closest thing to a control deck in that T8. Does anyone else feel that Zoo as the premier control deck in a format is kind of ironic? Wild Nacatl is the new Morphling. :P

[DrJones]

Also, Zoo is the closest thing to a control deck in that T8. Does anyone else feel that Zoo as the premier control deck in a format is kind of ironic? Wild Nacatl is the new Morphling. :PWrong, the monoblue Infect deck (lol) runs a whole lot of counterspells and card draw, therefore it automatically becomes aggro-control.

[Maveric78f]

Wrong, the monoblue Infect deck (lol) runs a whole lot of counterspells and card draw, therefore it automatically becomes aggro-control.
I call this control-combo as for myself.


I feel like ST is as good or better than TtB
TtB is Through the Breach, I get it, but what is ST? (ok I got it , it's summoning trap, I thought you were talking about a white card)

Contrarily to you, I love the TtB strategy (which I did not expect). It provides 4 lands with Titan, removes 4/6 permanents with an Eldrazi and it's also quite good with Terastodon. There are some adjustments I would like to put on his list, but otherwise I like it a lot. I would play less Emrakul though and more Ancient Stirring. The gruul signet seems really unimpressive too. I'd play 1 birds to be able to fetch a R provider with GSZ (damn if only tinder wall was legal...). And/or maybe some expedition map to ensure I get the green too.

Also, congrats SpikeyMikey for your prediction. As for myself, I predicted that Splinter Twin was the best deck. And I think it still is. I also think that the decks that top8ed are not brilliant at all, so that there is margin for improvement.

The infect deck is brilliant though ^^.