PT Philly

[(nameless one)]

Alright guys,

Apparently Combo is running rampant. From 12-post to Hive Mind. Though Zoo is currently running the top tables.

Discuss.

[Phoenix Ignition]

The 3 groups of decks everyone knew would be played are being played.

That's not much to discuss.

[Wereodile]

Finkel Vs Chapin was an entertaining read, the metagame breakdown of PT Philly was pretty interesting with a lot of "1 off" rouge decks but as Phoenix mentioned not a huge surprise on the top 5 decks.

[Telperion]

The twitter discussion of the pros is quite entertaining. They are complaining that mental misstep isn't around to slow down combo and Tarmogoyf just "doesn't do enough". The format kind of reminds me of old extended when Intuition was legal. Tons of turn three or four, 3 card combos. I'm still hopefull visions and Jace come off the banned list, although the former might be too much of a boon for combo.

[keys]

Where are you guys reading coverage?

[Aggro_zombies]

Where are you guys reading coverage?
http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptphi11/welcome

[lordofthepit]

Where are you guys reading coverage?

http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptphi11/metagame1

I don't know what most of these decks are, but according to someone on MTGS, the metagame is about 30% U/R Cantrip Combo (aggregated from these data), 20% Cloudpost, and 16% Zoo.

[DrJones]

I never thought I would see "mana ramp" as a competitive strategy in an eternal format.

[mojoiskewl]

So should we just call it the "8 (or more) cantrips" format?

[SpikeyMikey]

So should we just call it the "8 (or more) cantrips" format?

I've been saying since the new banned list was announced that combo was going to run rampant. And I've also said that the only 3 true tier 1 decks are GreenPost, Splinter Twin and Persist. Zoo and Jund roll in at Tier 1.5 along with possibly All in Red depending on the metagame makeup.But we'll see how the T8 rolls out. I'm kind of surprised to see Zoo still doing well that late in Day 1. I would've expected that 12Post would've knocked them all out of the running, given that it makes up 20%(!!!) of the meta.

[RaNDoMxGeSTuReS]

I want Grapeshot.dec to take it all.

[KindGrind]

Lots of Zoo/Affinity on the second day or so it seems, higher % of these decks made day 2 than 12post variants.

I'm pretty surprised to see Affinity posting results.

[Jeff Kruchkow]

I've been saying since the new banned list was announced that combo was going to run rampant. And I've also said that the only 3 true tier 1 decks are GreenPost, Splinter Twin and Persist. Zoo and Jund roll in at Tier 1.5 along with possibly All in Red depending on the metagame makeup.But we'll see how the T8 rolls out. I'm kind of surprised to see Zoo still doing well that late in Day 1. I would've expected that 12Post would've knocked them all out of the running, given that it makes up 20%(!!!) of the meta.

Persist is not better than Pyromancer or SwathStorm. Hell, Twin probably isn't better than those two.

[SpikeyMikey]

Persist is not better than Pyromancer or SwathStorm. Hell, Twin probably isn't better than those two.

I'm going to have to disagree for 1 very simple reason. Ascension and swath both require you to have 1 copy of a 4-of. Persist is necessarily 3 card combo, however you can have redundancy for all 3 pieces as well as direct tutoring. Swath and Ascension have no redundancy and only cantrips for tutoring. The also have little room for protection, whereas my persist has 4 Thoughtseize and 3 Sculler to disrupt opposing combos and protect my own.

[Aggro_zombies]

I'm going to have to disagree for 1 very simple reason. Ascension and swath both require you to have 1 copy of a 4-of. Persist is necessarily 3 card combo, however you can have redundancy for all 3 pieces as well as direct tutoring. Swath and Ascension have no redundancy and only cantrips for tutoring. The also have little room for protection, whereas my persist has 4 Thoughtseize and 3 Sculler to disrupt opposing combos and protect my own.
Multiple Ascension decks made Top 8, no persist decks did.

UR Cantrips-Into-Combo seems like the deck archetype to beat.

[Ozymandias]

I guess Force of Will is still "The Glue."

[2Rach]

I guess Force of Will is still "The Glue."
No way, the combo decks aren't even close to what's in Legacy. I think discard can handle this just fine, although Misstep would go a long way to helping against combo and boosting control imo.

[Phoenix Ignition]

I guess Force of Will is still "The Glue."

Meh, I'm excited it isn't Hive Mind vs some sort of cheat Emrakul into play deck vs some cheat Progenitus into play build. These types of combo are easy enough to hate with somewhat decent cards.

[SpikeyMikey]

Persist isn't really a known quantity. There's a mediocre version floating around on MTGO. But it wasn't as heavily represented at the PT and I doubt most of the builds had any disruption. Pyromancer's Ascension and Splinter Twin are both T2 decks that the pros would have some experience with. Project 420 hasn't been in T2 for quite some time. I would've expected one to sneak into the T8 anyway, but apparently not.

[DrJones]

I don't think this is a combo format. It's just that control can't be build unless there's a clear view of the meta, and this is the very first big tournament using Modern.

Also, I think Sensei's Divining Top would make control better without punishing aggro the way Mental Misstep does.

[Zunam]

I don't think this is a combo format. It's just that control can't be build unless there's a clear view of the meta, and this is the very first big tournament using Modern.

Also, I think Sensei's Divining Top would make control better without punishing aggro the way Mental Misstep does.

I tend to disagree. All decks (see archetype breakdown) were known before the tournament and all the arch-types in the top 8 did show up with good results on MTGO the weeks before. There were no surprises at all.
If control would have been possible the Pros would have played it.

[DrJones]

Looking at the interviews on the WotC site, they chose not to play control because they couldn't find a control deck that was able to consistently beat everything. So they were looking for a deck that doesn't and shouldn't exist, and surprisingly they didn't found any.

They didn't play control because they had to chose between beating combo+aggro, or beating combo+mana ramp, and they wanted to do both. So it's not that control doesn't exist, it's that it's a fair archtype and Pros stay away from fair decks.

You know what? There's not even one single black deck in the Top 8, even the infect deck is monoblue, and I haven't seen a single Pro worrying about it, but about them being unable to play Mental Misstep, Jace, and FoW.

[Zunam]

That's exactly what I was saying:

They figured out that in the given Meta control was no option.
There is both ramp and combo in the top 8.

I doubt this will change after the Pro-Tour if they are not unbanning/banning something.
If they don't control will continue to be no option.

In my opinion this has nothing to do with the Pros not having a clear view of the meta.

[SpikeyMikey]

That's exactly what I was saying:

They figured out that in the given Meta control was no option.
There is both ramp and combo in the top 8.

I doubt this will change after the Pro-Tour if they are not unbanning/banning something.
If they don't control will continue to be no option.

In my opinion this has nothing to do with the Pros not having a clear view of the meta.

Honestly, even with MM and Jace and Stoneforge prior to the new banned list, control wasn't viable. People tried to play it, but tapping out on turn 2 for SFM and play Bskull on turn 3 is just not going to cut it. Granted, if they took those off the banned list, Hyper and Elves wouldn't be the factor they were before the banned list. But to let you all in on a little secret, Hypergenesis wasn't actually good. Yes, it would go off turn 2-3 consistently every game, but it was like Belcher. It was a glass cannon. Chalice of the Void for 0 was a serious problem, as it had to draw into Oblivion Ring or Beast Within to deal with it. Ethersworn Cannonist was the same thing. And god forbid the opponent ran Eldrazi, because comboing off successfully and then watching your opponent get to swing first with something large with annihilator was pretty frustrating. What was really holding control back was 12Post. If anything, unbanning control cards would just make 12Post that much better, as it would help keep down the combo decks that 12Post fears.

[RaNDoMxGeSTuReS]

Aaron Forsythe reportedly shaking his head as he walks away from the viewing area after that Twin win. #MWPhi

[Gheizen64]

LOL

Go for a stupid large-ass banned list, see combo swipe the format.

Priceless.

[trivial_matters]

Go go CounterCat!

[DrJones]

Countercat has it rough to win, he needs to beat splinter twin thrice in a row.

[trivial_matters]

Splinter Twin takes it 3-1.

[Kage]

And so, the bitching about combo in general has officially begun. I dunno what happened lately, but 9 years ago, when I started playing, no one was bothered by combo, it was rather cool.

[hotbeefcakes]

Welcome to the most un-interactive format ever.

[Phoenix Ignition]

The only people who are bitching seem to be the people who just want the format to fail. The top 8 isn't scary to me, the winning deck is by no means bulletproof and doesn't win before turn 4 ever. It's a creature based 2 card combo, yes it was just proven to be a very strong deck, but the removal people pack normally stops the combo.

The red storming decks didn't end up placing all that well, and neither did 12 post. Seems to me like the format is still pretty open to whatever deck type you like to play, except perhaps for an extreme control blue deck, but that's what Wizards was going for anyway.

[Sims]

Welcome to the most un-interactive format ever.

Isn't it fun, Mr. 1 post alt/spam account?

[Zunam]

The only people who are bitching seem to be the people who just want the format to fail. The top 8 isn't scary to me, the winning deck is by no means bulletproof and doesn't win before turn 4 ever. It's a creature based 2 card combo, yes it was just proven to be a very strong deck, but the removal people pack normally stops the combo.

The red storming decks didn't end up placing all that well, and neither did 12 post. Seems to me like the format is still pretty open to whatever deck type you like to play, except perhaps for an extreme control blue deck, but that's what Wizards was going for anyway.

I am not saying that I think the format is bad but how well do you need stormy decks and 12 post to place?
They were in the freakin' top 8. How is this not "placing all that well"?
And the winning deck did manage to fight a deck full of creature removal 3-1 so it seems to be well equipped fighting those decks.

Don't get me wrong. This is not a personal attack or trolling. I am just not getting what you are trying to say.

The format is definitely combo dominated in my opinion. If this a good or a bad thing depends on everyones own preferences.
I personally would like to have it changed because my feeling is that currently the hate available is not enough or to specialized.

[Aggro_zombies]

I am not saying that I think the format is bad but how well do you need stormy decks and 12 post to place?
They were in the freakin' top 8. How is this not "placing all that well"?
And the winning deck did manage to fight a deck full of creature removal 3-1 so it seems to be well equipped fighting those decks.

Don't get me wrong. This is not a personal attack or trolling. I am just not getting what you are trying to say.

The format is definitely combo dominated in my opinion. If this a good or a bad thing depends on everyones own preferences.
I personally would like to have it changed because my feeling is that currently the hate available is not enough or to specialized.
I don't know about the storm decks, but given that 12Post was a large share of the meta, you'd expect more than one to place. Looking at the "18 points or better" decks, it's a little bit more represented, but it seems like the heavy amounts of Blood Moon and quick clocks/combo kills hated it out a bit.

Through the Breach is a nice answer to a Moon effect, though. Tap a bunch of your MountainPosts, make an Emrakul anyway.

[Phoenix Ignition]

I'm saying everyone is being reactionary and not just fucking looking at the numbers before trying to bash the format.

Day 1 deck entry percentage/ Day 2 deck entry percentage / top 8 percentage:

Twelvepost: 19.66%/ 11.92%/ 12.5%
Splinter Twin: 16.79%/ 18.54%/ 25%
Zoo: 15.59%/ 19.87%/ 12.5%
Affinity: 7.57%/ 11.26%/ 12.5%
Pyromancer Ascension: 6.47%/ 7.28%/ 25%
Infect Combo: 4.8%/ 4.64%/ 12.5%

Small sample sizes in the top 8 will naturally cause some fluctuations, so going from the day2 results to the top 8 results, one should bare this in mind.

So looking at this we see Twelvepost in general didn't do as well as expected, Splinter twin did Slightly better, zoo did about average, affinity did slightly better, ascension did much better, and infect combo did somewhat better as well.

But what should we really get out of this?

Combo decks are inherently harder to play than normal decks, and we just saw a tournament with literally the most experienced and best players anywhere. And Ascension didn't even top 4! So storm combo did better than average and 2 got into top 8, but is this because of the deck itself or the players playing the deck not fizzling like your average FNM player probably would.

Affinity, a non combo deck, seems well placed in the format right now, just being a fast, consistent killer.

Splinter Twin did slightly better than you would expect if every deck was 50% against the metagame. Is this noise? Is this a definite "this deck is better than every other deck"? I hardly think so, but I'm just using the day1 -> day2 results and not emotion to blindly guide my opinions.

So just looking at which decks did well from day 1 to day 2, and forgetting about our top 8 we see that no combo deck did much better than you'd expect by just rolling a die to see who wins. The top 8 itself could be some indicator of which deck is supremely better, but I'm not going to draw any "sky is falling" conclusions about combo ruling the format when the numbers just don't prove it here either.

[dahcmai]

People just haven't started running the hate they need to yet. Simple enough. The format will fill itself out. I doubt anyone said when building a deck for this thought, "you know what I need? Spellskites and Dismembers."

If anything, black will eventually jump in since discard looks really, really good with this type of meta.

[SpikeyMikey]

I'm saying everyone is being reactionary and not just fucking looking at the numbers before trying to bash the format.

Day 1 deck entry percentage/ Day 2 deck entry percentage / top 8 percentage:

Twelvepost: 19.66%/ 11.92%/ 12.5%
Splinter Twin: 16.79%/ 18.54%/ 25%
Zoo: 15.59%/ 19.87%/ 12.5%
Affinity: 7.57%/ 11.26%/ 12.5%
Pyromancer Ascension: 6.47%/ 7.28%/ 25%
Infect Combo: 4.8%/ 4.64%/ 12.5%

Small sample sizes in the top 8 will naturally cause some fluctuations, so going from the day2 results to the top 8 results, one should bare this in mind.

So looking at this we see Twelvepost in general didn't do as well as expected, Splinter twin did Slightly better, zoo did about average, affinity did slightly better, ascension did much better, and infect combo did somewhat better as well.

But what should we really get out of this?

Combo decks are inherently harder to play than normal decks, and we just saw a tournament with literally the most experienced and best players anywhere. And Ascension didn't even top 4! So storm combo did better than average and 2 got into top 8, but is this because of the deck itself or the players playing the deck not fizzling like your average FNM player probably would.

Affinity, a non combo deck, seems well placed in the format right now, just being a fast, consistent killer.

Splinter Twin did slightly better than you would expect if every deck was 50% against the metagame. Is this noise? Is this a definite "this deck is better than every other deck"? I hardly think so, but I'm just using the day1 -> day2 results and not emotion to blindly guide my opinions.

So just looking at which decks did well from day 1 to day 2, and forgetting about our top 8 we see that no combo deck did much better than you'd expect by just rolling a die to see who wins. The top 8 itself could be some indicator of which deck is supremely better, but I'm not going to draw any "sky is falling" conclusions about combo ruling the format when the numbers just don't prove it here either.

Don't forget that what made day 2 was also contingent on how the players did in the draft. You needed to go 6-3 on the day to make day two but only 5 of those rounds were Modern, the last 4 were draft. So what made day 2 or even what made T8 isn't necessarily representative of what was the best stuff out there. You could 5-0 the Modern portion day 1 and still not make day 2 if you shit all over the draft format.

[Phoenix Ignition]

Don't forget that what made day 2 was also contingent on how the players did in the draft. You needed to go 6-3 on the day to make day two but only 5 of those rounds were Modern, the last 4 were draft. So what made day 2 or even what made T8 isn't necessarily representative of what was the best stuff out there. You could 5-0 the Modern portion day 1 and still not make day 2 if you shit all over the draft format.

This as well, I suppose I could compile a list of all of the decks that had 18 points or more after 10 rounds (link here: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/eventcoverage/ptphi11/topmoderndecks ) but I really don't think it's necessary. The format isn't all combo decks by any means, and I think that these results are going to be a great starting point for those of us who actually like designing decks. Hate for these decks will definitely pop up now that people know what to sideboard. Anyone who has played a modern format before the pro tour knows how hard it is to actually come up with a sideboard for any deck, and now there should be at least a somewhat defined list of decks out there.