[Official] Bitching about prices. (Modern edition.)

[TheBasicIsland]

Time to Pay 2/10/2016

So the fans got what they wanted. Another modern Pro Tour. It was very entertaining to watch the pros do battle in the post Splinter Twin world. We saw your every day decks like Affinity and Infect. We saw the power of the new Eldrazi archetype. And we saw what appeared to be a draft deck with a Modern mana base win the whole thing courtesy of Jiachen Tao. But, perhaps most importantly, we saw the ever changing unstable Modern market explode as the weekend went on.

Before we get into the specifics, I'd like to share some information I got from some of the pros that played in the tour. I watched several streams on Twitch before the pro tour began and I asked each of the individuals their thoughts on having a Modern pro tour. All 3 of them stated they preferred Standard or Legacy over Modern in fear of what could happen to the market. Because let's face it, Modern is kind of WOTC's baby.

Now let's take a look at a few examples of what happened with the market over the weekend.

First there are the individual cards that, most notably, skyrocketed in value. Cards like Chalice of the Void and Eye of Ugin. Near $20 cards respectively before the tournament began. At one point during the tournament Chalice actually hit a high point of $50 and Eye of Ugin reached a high value of $48. Both now seem to be settling in the lower $40 range, nearly double what they were before the tour. Other cards increasing by $10 or more of note are Inkmoth Nexus and Noble Heirarch. Typically we see them in the range of $33-$34. Since the tour we can now get them at the bargain price of near $44 each. Other items of note here are the $1 rares that at one point in the weekend were actually over $10 such as Eldrazi Mimic and Reality Smasher. Both are respectively under $10 at this point, but you're getting to see the trend here. If that isn't enough here's two more insane examples. Painter's Servant is now all the way up to $33! Previously at a mere $5-$7. And our last example. Worship. A simple $1 card right? Wrong. You will now be picking them up for $18 at the mid range cost. We won't even talk about the high end of these cards.

There are even a few decks I want to point out in terms of the market and values. Just to show what the previous section equals out to in the big picture of deck building for the format.

Each of the following decks have a value in the weeks before the pro tour and after. (AVERAGE BASED ON TCG PLAYER)

Affinity: BEFORE- $900-$950 AFTER- $1100
Infect: BEFORE- $650-$700 AFTER- $900-$950
CoCo/Chord BEFORE- $1200 AFTER- $1700
Urza Tron BEFORE- $1000 AFTER- $1200

Now I know there will be those that argue that the prices will come back down over time. But how long will that take? Let's use Grove of the Burnwillows as an example. It was $50-$60 before the banning of Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom. Post banning we saw it jump up to $80 or so in expectance of it being THE deck in Modern. Well, it hasn't exactly been on fire since the bannings. In fact, Grove only was in a winning deck thanks to JUND not Tron. And with Tron on the decline in results (And possibly even popularity,) Grove is still a staggering $83.

With these insane spikes in Modern after PTOGW, the question remains, How much will you pay for another Modern Pro Tour???

[Dice_Box]

Title change. Mostly because I want this shit contained if it becomes a regular complaint.

On topic:
Welcome to Modern, the format with promise but badly handled.

[TheBasicIsland]

I for one honestly do not care about prices. I work for a living, I got my decks handled. Merely observations.

[Dice_Box]

That's fine. I just want price discussion in one place and this is as good as any.

I had a large Modern collection. (still do, letting it go now) I also enjoyed the format. I feel though it was badly miss managed. The idea that the format would be unsafe to speculation, that cards could be reprinted and would be, that you could move from Standard into Modern. All where great ideas but none have come to be. So I am sick of it. I am keeping Elves, since so much of it is also the Legacy deck and getting rid of the rest.

I will happily go back if they fix the formats issues.

[TheBasicIsland]

I agree 100%

The post was more to try and get people to realize how damaged the format is. I haven't played it in months. Nor standard really for that matter. I have been solely on legacy for the time being. Standard prices are chasing away the newer local players in my area. We used to get 20-40 people on Tuesdays for a SCG game night event. Now we are down to a high of 12, and an average of 9. Modern seems to keep popping, but I am very interested in what these new prices do to the communities.

[Timber]

Modern card prices will never get under control until WotC figures out a way to print large quantities of cards from pre-Scars blocks. Demand for MTG and Modern are at an all-time high, but supply of cards from the last decade are low.

Sower of Temptation isn't worth $22 because lots of people use it. It's selling at that price because there's probably only ~700,000 copies in the world.

Demand for cards in recently-successful decks will always be in demand. WotC can't control that aspect of the market. It can print more cards.

[iamajellydonut]

It's selling at that price because there's probably only ~700,000 copies in the world.

Which is a factor how if people aren't using it? There's an equal number of Ancient Amphitheaters floating around on the market that see about the same degree of play as Sower of Temptation, but for some reason the Amphitheaters are only $0.89 while the Sowers are $20.

There are stupid prices on cards for little actual reason.

[mini1337s]

My advice is to move Modern cards while prices are high, unless you consistently play with them. I think confidence Modern is waning, and people will quickly realize that their Modern junk can buy them into real Eternal formats. 4 Eye of Ugins buy you a blue dual, people will get their priorities straight.
If you enjoy playing modern and have a few decks + some slot-in tech, keep them, but if you are sitting on a lot and want to keep expanding your collection, I'd advise against it.

[Paul7926]

I took the current state of the Modern format and recent actions and decisions by WOTC as a good indication that I should just stop playing Magic. I've been out of standard for a while as the speed of rotation + card prices made it too expensive. I'm now out of Modern because I figured I could sell my deck and fund getting into another hobby without spending any additional money. I've kept my beloved Legacy Goblins deck just in case I want to play and can find an opponent but other than that. I'm out.

Forget all the comparisons with Hearthstone which I don't believe have much merit. Just compare the cost of Magic with other hobbies and it's simply too expensive. Demand is at an all time high now but at the grass roots I see people drifting away all the time. Local attendances are dropping and the most active magic group in my area has just disbanded. WOTC and the dealers can try and convince me that it's worth me having about $1000 tied up in 75 pieces of cardboard but I no longer believe that to be true.

[Ish]

My advice is to move Modern cards while prices are high, unless you consistently play with them. I think confidence Modern is waning, and people will quickly realize that their Modern junk can buy them into real Eternal formats. 4 Eye of Ugins buy you a blue dual, people will get their priorities straight.


This... Lol. And the fact that legacy is no longer friendly for grinding, the player base is full of legacy fans, and those who play for love of the game and format. I welcome all those disenfranchised modern players to the format!!!

Here's to legacy growing naturally, without need of support from SSG or WoTC.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Timber]

Which is a factor how if people aren't using it? There's an equal number of Ancient Amphitheaters floating around on the market that see about the same degree of play as Sower of Temptation, but for some reason the Amphitheaters are only $0.89 while the Sowers are $20.

There are stupid prices on cards for little actual reason.

Price memory's a helleva drug.

[iamajellydonut]

Price memory's a helleva drug.

2008 was a rough year.

[Spam]

The real point lies on the lack of reprints wizard is giving. Can't they see Modern Master is not enough and you need more supplies? I'm not saying we need chronicles part 2, but you have to be smarter on this.
Come on, whe didn't get inquisition and ancient stirrings in an Eldrazi themed set, what the hell!?

[Phoenix Ignition]

I'm all for bitching about prices but since when did we take the week after the pro tour to be a good measuring bar? Of course prices are high now while the "I top 8ed a PTQ once and am really good at the game" crowd scrambles to buy every card from every deck that was listed on any website. There are also the card hoarders who bought up every card that came on camera during the Pro Tour coverage to try to make a quick buck. Let's wait a few weeks at least before jumping on the complaint train.

Even though I'm really turned off to the current state of the format, I really don't think selling out is in your best interest. I just don't think the format is dying, even with the Eldrazi nightmare.

[Dice_Box]

I'm all for bitching about prices but since when did we take the week after the pro tour to be a good measuring bar? Of course prices are high now while the "I top 8ed a PTQ once and am really good at the game" crowd scrambles to buy every card from every deck that was listed on any website. There are also the card hoarders who bought up every card that came on camera during the Pro Tour coverage to try to make a quick buck. Let's wait a few weeks at least before jumping on the complaint train.

Even though I'm really turned off to the current state of the format, I really don't think selling out is in your best interest. I just don't think the format is dying, even with the Eldrazi nightmare.I would be with you on this if price spikes and buy outs where not a weekly thing. This is not just something to do with the PT, that just put a harsher spotlight on it. Its got to do with the format overall. Lest we have a look at what Grove, O Stone and Karn are at. None of them see as much play as the cost would suggest. O Stone is a card I found in a year and a half old "Budget EDH" list where the whole deck cost less than the current price of the card.

No, there is a real issue here and I do not need to wait a few weeks to see it, I have been watching it for over a year.

[Phoenix Ignition]

I don't disagree that prices are ridiculous, but no one expects the card prices to be set by their immediate post-tournament buyout prices. They spike and then settle down higher than what they used to be but lower than the spike price.

The cards you listed are all cross-format as well. Grove is a great card in Legacy for Punishing Fire, both in Lands and the aggro-loam variant (though it's nothing like what old aggro loams looked like), and the other two are in every EDH deck ever. EDH is such a huge driver of card prices it's actually just insane. If any EDH card sees play in a real format the price skyrockets.

Oh, we shouldn't forget about Cube either. All good colorless cards end up in cube. Karn and Ostone are both great cards in pretty much any situation there.

[mini1337s]

I don't disagree that prices are ridiculous, but no one expects the card prices to be set by their immediate post-tournament buyout prices. They spike and then settle down higher than what they used to be but lower than the spike price.

The cards you listed are all cross-format as well. Grove is a great card in Legacy for Punishing Fire, both in Lands and the aggro-loam variant (though it's nothing like what old aggro loams looked like), and the other two are in every EDH deck ever. EDH is such a huge driver of card prices it's actually just insane. If any EDH card sees play in a real format the price skyrockets.

Oh, we shouldn't forget about Cube either. All good colorless cards end up in cube. Karn and Ostone are both great cards in pretty much any situation there.
I agree to an extent, but the fact that Cube and EDH are singleton means they don't influence cards prices as significantly as a tournament driven format. Obviously, there are exceptions (Mana Reflection for example), but I would argue that Modern has 4x as much influence on Karn or OStone that EDH or Cube.

Want to influence cards prices? Start making 8th Edition + redeemable on MTGO. That and you solve a lot of counterfeiting issues as you can reprint with holos. Granted, short term, this will drive prices up on MTGO, but it will also incentivize people to play on MTGO and aggressively draft flashback drafts. WotC gets to double-dip with this too, by charging virtual prices and making their redemption fee (which is surely much less than the cost of printing).

[Phoenix Ignition]

I agree to an extent, but the fact that Cube and EDH are singleton means they don't influence cards prices as significantly as a tournament driven format. Obviously, there are exceptions (Mana Reflection for example), but I would argue that Modern has 4x as much influence on Karn or OStone that EDH or Cube.

I'm curious to see the stats on this but I don't think you're right, especially for colorless cards. O Stone and Karn belong in at least 90% of EDH decks if you are serious about winning, which means that anyone who wants to keep a good EDH deck would own 1. Those cards in Modern are only for people who either want to own all the decks/staples (relatively small number of people since it's so expensive to keep up on cards that only see 1 deck's play) or people who actively want to play them in something like Tron. There really isn't a lot of room for Karn/O Stone in any other deck in the format.

EDH players span every format and have a very solid playerbase in the non-tournament goers as well. Many competitive players also own their own cubes. I'd be really surprised if Modern players are the majority shareholders of things like Karn and O Stone.

[Lord Seth]

The real point lies on the lack of reprints wizard is giving. Can't they see Modern Master is not enough and you need more supplies? I'm not saying we need chronicles part 2, but you have to be smarter on this.
Come on, whe didn't get inquisition and ancient stirrings in an Eldrazi themed set, what the hell!?Ancient Stirrings would have been just plain broken in this Standard due to devoid.

I will readily agree that Inquisition of Kozilek not being reprinted is a big disappointment, however.

[mini1337s]

I'm curious to see the stats on this but I don't think you're right, especially for colorless cards. O Stone and Karn belong in at least 90% of EDH decks if you are serious about winning, which means that anyone who wants to keep a good EDH deck would own 1. Those cards in Modern are only for people who either want to own all the decks/staples (relatively small number of people since it's so expensive to keep up on cards that only see 1 deck's play) or people who actively want to play them in something like Tron. There really isn't a lot of room for Karn/O Stone in any other deck in the format. EDH players span every format and have a very solid playerbase in the non-tournament goers as well. Many competitive players also own their own cubes. I'd be really surprised if Modern players are the majority shareholders of things like Karn and O Stone.
Tron has a pretty heavy representation in the modern Metagame:
http://www.tcdecks.net/archetype.php?archetype=Green%20Tron&format=Modern
http://www.tcdecks.net/archetype.php?archetype=Tron&format=Modern
Those are just Top 8 results.
As for EDH, not as many people are cutthroat about the format as you may expect. Someone might want a Karn or O-Stone effect for their deck, but even with it increasing their win percentage, a lot will just pass for more cool cards to play with. Obviously, that's not everyone, but I would wager a lot of people are of that mindset, though it's impossible to ever quantify.

[sjmcc13]

Which is a factor how if people aren't using it? There's an equal number of Ancient Amphitheaters floating around on the market that see about the same degree of play as Sower of Temptation, but for some reason the Amphitheaters are only $0.89 while the Sowers are $20.

There are stupid prices on cards for little actual reason.

actually there are more Amphitheatres since it was re-printed in the last commander set.
As to use, sower does see some Modern play, as well as EDH, while Amphitheatre is pretty much just a EDH tribal giant card.

[DLifshitz]

Now let's take a look at a few examples of what happened with the market over the weekend.

Ironically, Modern is currently dominated by blisteringly fast aggro decks, at least one of which (Eldrazi) is likely to be hit by a banning come April. I even suspect that things won't end there becuase WotC are so trigger-happy. You're probably better off buying a Standard deck and modifying it as needed over a year or so. You'll spend $500 at most and your deck may actually be legal for a longer period of time. Standard isn't perfect, but to me at least, it seems healthier and more interesting than the present state of Modern.

[Dice_Box]

One of my mates wants to play the deck at GP Melbourne. I am going to have him sell it when he is down there. If this thing stays unbanned I am going to be shocked. I am 8 for 11 in sanctioned games, one of them I lost to a Tron player having the exact triple runner he needed (Even he admitted that) and another to not knowing how to properly play against Affinity the first time I faced it. This is a deck I had never played before Wednesday. It's nuts. I would love to keep playing it, it feels like Shops Lite, but thats not likely so... Yea.

[Kathal]

The colourless Eldrazi deck is basically Modern MUD, which is disgusting imo.

However, when I observed something from wizard over the last couple of years, if the deck does not crush the 3x GP weekend (which I imo doubt atm), it won't see a banning in April but rather 3 months later.

Greetings,
Kathal

[Tylert]

The colourless Eldrazi deck is basically Modern MUD, which is disgusting imo.

However, when I observed something from wizard over the last couple of years, if the deck does not crush the 3x GP weekend (which I imo doubt atm), it won't see a banning in April but rather 3 months later.

Greetings,
Kathal

whatever, wizards wants to sell boosters... expect a ban in 6 month only minimum.

[Lemnear]

whatever, wizards wants to sell boosters... expect a ban in 6 month only minimum.

I second this expected pattern for the only eternal format WotC can still control on both ends (printing and banning). They are not going to ban anything as long as the deck is selling them
packs

[Dice_Box]

I am not as cynical. I would be willing to make a wager than if the deck continues to put up the numbers it is now, it will eat a ban. Example: Treasure Cruise.

Anyone want a wager on this? Because this deck is getting Banned if nothing changes.

[Bed Decks Palyer]

Example: Treasure Cruise.

I doubt that sub-uncommon cards sell post-Legends packs.

[Dice_Box]

Willing to take a wager on it. If it keeps putting up these numbers, it goes away.

[gemeye]

All I'm gonna say is I bought Scalding Tarns at $50 USD, and since Cliques have lost $40 from the last time I saw em, and my final Snapcaster I need for a playset is as low as $60 USD! (:/)

It's a less painful time to be a blue mage's wallet.

[Ricardio]

All I'm gonna say is I bought Scalding Tarns at $50 USD, and since Cliques have lost $40 from the last time I saw em, and my final Snapcaster I need for a playset is as low as $60 USD! (:/)

It's a less painful time to be a blue mage's wallet.

Blue is the worst color in modern and arguably standard.

[Kathal]

Blue is the worst color in modern and arguably standard.

That is why a Ux deck won another Pro Tour :tongue:

Greetings,
Kathal

[Lord Seth]

Blue and Red are the worst colors in Standard because they don't cast Siege Rhino.

[Timber]

whatever, wizards wants to sell boosters... expect a ban in 6 month only minimum.

Could you explain this to me? How does the dominance of Eldrazi decks in Modern sell boosters?

[Ace/Homebrew]

Could you explain this to me? How does the dominance of Eldrazi decks in Modern sell boosters?

Currently the format is beat them or join them, with about 50% joining them.
A majority of the cards from the deck are from the most recent (in print) block.
The 50% of the meta playing Eldrazi compiled their decks because boosters are being opened to find the pieces (either by players, or vendors to sell to players).

[sjmcc13]

Currently the format is beat them or join them, with about 50% joining them.
A majority of the cards from the deck are from the most recent (in print) block.
The 50% of the meta playing Eldrazi compiled their decks because boosters are being opened to find the pieces (either by players, or vendors to sell to players). If the core of the deck was not mostly from the most recent set, I doubt it would have hit 50% nearly this fast. It take time to build a new deck with cards that have not been printed in a while, as they get lost in collections. But the amount of the eldrazi decks that have been printed in the last year is a bit disturbing, For the UR lists I think Cavern of souls and Steam Vents are the only main deck cards not printed at some point in the last year (ignoring the Steam Vents expedition)