[Discussion] The State of Aggro in the Format

[SpikeyMikey]

There has been a trend in the last few months towards faster and faster aggro decks. To some, this may seem a natural and logical progression, but one of the major changes to the format that occured when 1.5 was split from T1 was the banning of Mana Drain. The reason that decks in the old 1.5 and in T1 before Mirrodin contained so many cheap creatures with good power/cc ration and a slight drawback was the presence of Drain. Drain allowed for such amazing swings in tempo, that even as a 4-of, it was worth playing around.

The problem with cheap fast aggro is that it loses to slightly slower, fatter aggro. Normally this progression from fast to slow is checked by counter-based control, but at present, there is nothing competitive that qualifies. Due to the lack of acceptable acceleration in the format, control heavy decks are simply not viable, as shown by the fall of Landstill. Aggro control, like Gro and a variety of midrange counterless decks, can give issues to beatz-style decks, if they aren't built correctly, but they too have issues with fat. As Jamie Wakefield once said, "It's the last fatty that kills you." This is not to suggest that Jamie Wakefield is a brilliant example of what a deck designer should be, but he does outline a fundamental point in the strategy of aggro decks. You only need one threat to stay on the board, and you can win. While this is true for any aggressive deck, it is more apparent in the fat beatz decks because the amount of time that threat has to stay unchecked is much smaller than it is for a deck with smaller creatures.

The premise of fast aggro is to kill your opponent before they can get their game plan online. The slower deck in any matchup has the onus of disrupting the assault long enough to win with it's superior cards. Unfortunately, if your deck has devoted slots to disrupting a blazing fast deck, it is vulnerable to decks geared towards disrupting slower strategies. This is why fat aggro works poorly in an environment with heavy counter control.

Now, however, the format consists almost entirely of fast aggro and aggro control decks, with a little disruption that can be effectively used to stall a faster strategy or buy enough time to beat a slower one. Combo sees very little play, control, even less. The way to beat the metagame, therefore, is not to play a faster deck than everyone else, which is the strategy you'd want to use in a heavy control format, or a disruption heavy deck, which would be ideal for a combo rich environment, but a slower, fatter deck, resilient to the style of disruption common in the format, with enough disruption to slow down the fast, cheap decks until you can get your superior creatures and other cards online, and overpower them. Such a deck would have to have a rich mana base, with some acceleration, since mana disruption is the primary form of disruption utilized by fast decks in the format, with cards such as Daze, Wasteland, and Rishadan Port. It would also have to be able to disrupt early creature build-ups, with cards like Pyroclasm and Tangle Wire or through the use of cheap, efficient blockers like Kird Ape or Watchwolf. It also has to have a fair density of creatures that will get at least a 2-1 in combat, things like Baloth or 'Derm. Finally, it would have to have the utility to shut down the powerful late game spells of these faster decks, primarily equipment like SoFI and Jitte, but also applying to things like Kiki and SGC.

If a deck could efficiently do these things, it would dominate the format as it now stands. In truth, if it can do even two of these three things, it would be a very viable deck. So why is it that people are still trending towards faster aggro?

[noobslayer]

The only problem is, combo still does see play in most of the format. Solidarity may be dwindling, but when played competently, it is a very resilient deck. TES on the other hand is not dwindling, and is in fact rising in popularity, and is fast and as stable as a lot of aggro decks. The fact that it also has a positive match-up against most of the field should mean that you can't not prepare for combo decks.

[SpatulaOfTheAges]

The second problem is the upswing in board control. Landstill and Enchantress especially. Survival also tends to have the edge over fat beats.

[Phantom]

As stated above, combo and control are probably on the rise, not the decline.

Want to know why most competitive aggro decks are fast? Here's my explanation:

We play in a format that is both combo and Goblin heavy. Both decks are fast, so if you want to race them, you have to be fast.

If you don't want to race them, then you have to disrupt their game plan, while not falling prey to their disruption. All of this while still sticking to your strategy. That may sound easy, but in practice it's hard as fucking shit. Combo and Goblins operate in completely different ways, and playing a hate card like pyroclasm or duress will leave you with dead slots against the other deck (Combo and Goblins respectively). That's why a card like Chalice of the Void is so freaking great. It is a decent to great card against all of tier one.

[georgjorge]

I agree with the posters above, but I also see your point - and therefore think that the various XXX Stompy versions (Faerie Stompy, Angel Stompy etc) are the best decks to play in the metagame right now, because they have enough fat to overpower fast aggro, while still having good game against combo (because of Chalice and Force / Believer respectively). Oh, and they do those things really quick.

On the other hand, if you want to stick to the original plan and play fat to overpower aggro, I would recommend Survival builds, especially WelderSurvival (Grw), since that deck can overpower aggro fairly easily, do that in time for it to still matter - but has a bad matchup against combo, but can at least side in Chants, Glowriders and Believers.

[MattH]

One other point is that any slower, fatter aggro deck is going to have no chance at all against combo. In older formats that saw combo/fat aggro matchups, there were at least some chances for the aggro deck to win - Pernicious Deed and mana untapped was an obstacle for Trix, burn spells could mess with Necropotence, and so on. Modern combo decks are all but untouchable by the kind of deck you're proposing. They're not just "bad matchups"; game one at least, they're unbeatable.

[Nihil Credo]

An observation regarding the "aggro-control" decks you mention: if you live in most of Europe, that means HanniFish and its variants. In this case your point stands, since those decks don't run fat and rely on Umezawa's Jitte and Mother of Runes to dominate the red zone. Kill Jitte and they won't be able to deal with an avalanche of fatties.

But if you're talking about the overseas metagame, then the aggro-control deck of choice is Threshold. And Threshold runs 3/3s, 4/4s, and huge fuckin' fliers. So overpowering that deck with "beatz" means we're talking about Fires-size creatures, because Kird Ape isn't exactly going to scare them.

About the combo matchup: I believe that a "fattie deck"'s best plan to handle combo is just to maindeck versatile hate cards. R/G Survival and mono-White Angel Stompy just concede Game 1 because the Survival/Equipment+Parallax Wave engines takes up all its non-creature, non land slots - but conceding Game 1 always gives you a bad matchup percentage, no matter your board hate. By contrast, Faerie Stompy can easily run Chalice of the Void (and Mages to fetch them) and Red Death can run discard without hampering their core engine of fast mana + threats. You can also take a look at Extended and see how the two Flores fattie decks (Haterator and Bests) deal with TEPS - maindeck Trinispheres, Chalices, and Chants are the answers.

[kicks_422]

I agree that Stompy variants (the ones with Chalices and Tombs) are close to what the opening post is describing. They have tools against every kind of deck in the metagame, but sometimes they lose to themselves.

I think aggro decks are just not being developed with the rise of Goblins as the premier aggro deck, so everyone's focusing on other deck types.

I still think that Dryad Sligh can win against any deck sans combo, which is helped by the SB. Aggro decks are required to be fast, not to outrace others, but to take advantage of when decks are at their weakest (Goblins with no creatures in play, for example.)

[AngryTroll]

R/G Survival and mono-White Angel Stompy just concede Game 1 because the Survival/Equipment+Parallax Wave engines takes up all its non-creature, non land slots - but conceding Game 1 always gives you a bad matchup percentage, no matter your board hate.

It's a small point, but I don't know anyone that plays just RGSA anymore. Running 7 pieces of hand disruption at least gives you a shot at the first games.

As someone else said, the problem with playing a midgame aggro deck is that creatures like BTS, that are great against Goblins, is not going to matter against TES or Solidarity. Cards like Duress do nothing to Goblins. Chalice is great, but even then, if you're on the draw, and they resolve Lackey or Vial, you have an uphill battle. I'd love to see a midrange aggro deck, but that is what Thresh ends up being in a lot of games. You aren't going to keep control forever...get to the midgame with control, then win before they do something stupid.

[Clark Kant]

You're asking for the deck to do a lot of things. Off the top of my head Zilla Stompy seems to come the closest to doing many of the things you're describing. And it serves to illustrate so well what many of the posters above are saying.

For reference, I still have the below build built and occasionally run it...

// Mana
7 Forest
4 Mountain
4 Taiga
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Elvish Spirit Guide

// Creatures
4 Kird Ape
4 Burning-Tree Shaman
4 Troll Ascetic
4 Iwamori of the Open Fist

// Spells
4 Keen Sense
4 Rancor
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Magma Jet
2 Umezawa's Jitte

Sideboard:
Disruption

The problem is, the deck still has it's share of bad matchups (storm based combo). In general, that seems to be the problem with any aggro deck that can't hope to race storm based combo decks even after siding in some disruption. Of course, if the deck were to also accomidate disruption maindeck, it will have to cut removal or creature slots from a build like the one above or cut the minimal accleration slots that make running such a high curve viable. Perhaps cutting a few acceleration slots for disruption is the right way to go for such a deck. But I'm not certain.

And I believe that's where your conclusion breaks down. It's simply not possible for one deck to do so many different things consistently. And failing that, it will always have one area of weakness, or will be too inconsistant to be considered stable.

[Cavius The Great]

The problem is, the deck still has it's share of bad matchups (storm based combo).

That's what Pyrostatic Pillar and Gaea's Blessing are for. And depending on the type of storm spell, Pyroclasm also.

[Nihil Credo]

That's what Pyrostatic Pillar and Gaea's Blessing are for. And depending on the type of storm spell, Pyroclasm also.
As I mentioned earlier, sideboard hate is not enough to make a matchup favorable or even. If you autolose Game 1, you need to win both games 2 and 3 to win the match. Hence, in order to have a 50% matchup, you need a sqrt(0.5)=70% postboard win percentage. That's not something you can achieve with less than 10-12 pure hate cards.

[Cavius The Great]

My point being, you can pretty much dedicate your SB to battle combo. Maybe something in the lines of this.

4 Red Elemental Blast
4 Pyroblast
4 Pyrostatic Pillar
2 Pyroclasm
1 Gaea's Blessing

That pretty much will beat Solidarity post-board and give other combo decks a hard time resolving their spells. I assume with a SB like that, you should have your next two games significantly in your favor. You also might actually win the first game, out of luck, if you can race your opponent fast enough. Not like that will happen often but it's always a possibility.

[Nihil Credo]

My point being, you can pretty much dedicate your SB to battle combo.
Sure, as I said, 10+ hate cards in the SB can give you a fighting chance. But that's assuming that you don't need other cards for *any* other matchup. And even with the best metagame foresight, Legacy is far too broad to afford that. For example:

- Life from the Loam decks, when put together, make up a decent portion of the meta, and generally handle aggro very well. You need sideboard tools to deal with them.
- There is no single popular control deck at the moment, but when you put together Duck Hunt, Truffle Shuffle, Train Wreck, and whatever Rabid Wombat evolution IBA has been concocting, you end up with a not-so-insignificat chance of running into mass removal. I hear big creatures don't like Damnations and Deeds.
- Creature-based decks of all kind, from Goblins to Fish to Angel Stompy, will bring in Forks of Doom to combat your fatties. Those, too, need answering.
- Combo decks other than the one you expected. For example, your sideboard can probably beat on Solidarity, but if you face Iggy-Pop, you can only bring in Pyrostatic Pillar. And that's *far* from effective hate, since the pilot just needs to use an extra Tendrils of Agony to shore up his early life total.
- Ichorid. Stax. Burn. Countersliver. Just going to auto-lose to them as well?

[Watcher487]

This is where I think, D3Deuce actually shines. It has all of the aggro effects that Gobbos and Thresh hates to see, is spread out among it's colors so a single wasteland doesn't destroy what is going on. And to top things off, you have access to a ton of useful options Post-board to help in bad match-ups (most types of combo).

Current Sideboard:
4 Extripate (Salvagers, Loam, Ichorid, Anything Graveyard Dependant, etc.)
3 Orim's Chant (General Combo)
4 Jagged Poppet (Control, Solidarity, etc.)
4 Engineered Plague (Gobbos, Aggro, etc.)

While it still does have a problem with TES post-board (it's a poor match-up in the first place, since it's fast storm as opposed to IGGy and Solidarity which is a set-up storm combo.) it holds a positive match-up against 'almost' everything else post-board. D3Deuce has the ability to literally cheat mana (Chrome Mox), gain Card Advantage (Dark Confidant, Stonecloaker, Broken Forks) and play threats (Silver Knight, Kird Ape, BTS), just like most mid-ranged aggro decks can do already, but it also has Creature Elim (StP, Helix, Bolt) to clear the way or reach for the win.

[frogboy]

I have no idea what D3Deuce is.

[Watcher487]

I have no idea what D3Deuce is.

http://mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5221

Here ya go.

[Cavius The Great]

Combo decks other than the one you expected. For example, your sideboard can probably beat on Solidarity, but if you face Iggy-Pop, you can only bring in Pyrostatic Pillar.

I have to disagree. You can also board in REB's and Pyroblast against Iggy Pop. You can usually stall them a bit by casting Blasts on their Intuitions, Brainstorms and blue draw spells. I'm not saying you can absolutely beat them with this strategy, I'm saying that you can maybe stall them long enough to push yourself in for that narrow win.

[Nihil Credo]

I have to disagree. You can also board in REB's and Pyroblast against Iggy Pop. You can usually stall them a bit by casting Blasts on their Intuitions, Brainstorms and blue draw spells. I'm not saying you can absolutely beat them with this strategy, I'm saying that you can maybe stall them long enough to push yourself in for that narrow win.
Agreed. Pull off that narrow win twice and you've won a match vs. Iggy Pop.

I take it to mean the rest of my point stands? :tongue:

[Phantom]

I think the point still stands that you can't devote your whole sideboard to one matchup, since no deck only has one bad matchup. Also, you're going to be behind in all those coinflip, 60/40 matchups because they are going to be boarding 4-6 cards while you twiddle your thumbs. I'm pretty sure this was one of the reasons Angel Stompy fell out of the top tier. It couldn't devote it's whole board to fighting combo without letting the Thresh and even Goblins matchup slide.

@Watcher487: Is there some reason D3Deuce doesn't have a thread? I'm not sure how great it is (especially with combo on the rise) but I'd at least like a place to talk about it, since I'm such a fan of aggro.

[Clark Kant]

I don't know about D3D. The manabase scares me outright. Is four colors really neccesary. And I much prefer Zilla Stompy's trampling 5/5s and untargetable regenerators to small vulnerable creatures with interesting abilities.

[Watcher487]

I don't know about D3D. The manabase scares me outright. Is four colors really neccesary. And I much prefer Zilla Stompy's trampling 5/5s and untargetable regenerators to small vulnerable creatures with interesting abilities.

The manabase is nothing to outright fear. it's alot better than one might think. Besides the obvious, I think 4 colors is neccesary. What would rather take out? White is for Gobbo (Silver Knight) and BETTER critter removal (StP, Helix), Red gives you the more effecient critters (Kird Ape, BTS), Black gives you Card Advantage (Dark Confidant, Cabal Therapy).

While yeah you can retool the manabase a little, but it wouldn't be worth it to drop Threats to add mana. The deck comes out of the gates running fast and most decks need to deal with your Threats before they deal with your manabase.

D3Deuce is made more like a speed aggro deck as Spikey described in his first paragraph. But it is built to also stay in for the long haul and deal with decks like Gro and Thresh and plow through for the final points of damage.

[Zilla]

I think the point still stands that you can't devote your whole sideboard to one matchup, since no deck only has one bad matchup. Also, you're going to be behind in all those coinflip, 60/40 matchups because they are going to be boarding 4-6 cards while you twiddle your thumbs. I'm pretty sure this was one of the reasons Angel Stompy fell out of the top tier. It couldn't devote it's whole board to fighting combo without letting the Thresh and even Goblins matchup slide.
It fell out of top tier because combo was on the rise, no one bothered to further develop the list to answer this trend, and so people started playing it less. The current maindeck smashes Goblins uttrerly, and goes a bit better than even against Thresh, so its main concerns are combo and control. The beauty about building a sideboard for Thresh is that the cards that are good against it are also useful against combo. What's good against combo? Chalice of the Void, for starters. How does Thresh feel about Chalice? Not so great. Secondarily, Tormod's Crypt is a decent roadblock in the IGG matchup, and Thresh doesn't feel so hot about that one either.

Essentially what I'm saying is that a deck can afford to dedicate most or all of its board to one matchup as long as those cards have secondary uses. The board I use for Angel Stompy now looks like so:

2 Tormod's Crypt (IGG, Thresh)
4 Chalice of the Void (Combo, Thresh)
4 Glowrider (Combo, Thresh)
2 Armageddon (Solidarity, Control)*
3 Open

* These are backed by 4 maindecked Cataclysm, so you're effectively running 6 'geddon effects.

The Open slot is typically something which answers a wide array of possible decks, such as Pithing Needle or Disenchant. In a very combo-heavy meta it could also be True Believer, which is solid against B/x Disruption and Combo.

[SpikeyMikey]

I'm glad to see I could spark an interesting discussion. I spend a great deal of time playing WoW, not so much playing Magic, especially living in a 1.5 dead zone, the closeset tournies being 3-4 hours away. So what I see is what's on MWS, not the best picture, I know, but it's what I have to go on. I see very little combo on MWS, but I see a lot of Goblins and quite a few people running teched Gro variants, as well as the occasional obligatory 60-cards-of-suck.dec. My thought with the original post was about Fires size/range creatures, like Baloth, 'Derm, et al. Mostly the 4 mana green set, god knows there's a lot of scary 4 and 5 mana green or partially green creatures out there, and I also know there's a lot of cheap mana producers to help you ramp up to them.

I cannot really comment on storm-based combo in 1.5, other than Solidarity, but based on what I know from T1, fast storm decks tend to be relatively self-defeating, they can be nuts, when they work as advertised, but all too often, they fizzle or roll over to the slightest disruption. One reason I liked Solidarity was it's heavy resilience, but I'm having a hard time with the idea that it's currently a contender. The one thing that Solidarity hated more than anything else was a disruptive or controlling deck with a fast clock. It could deal with fast decks, and it could deal with control decks, but it couldn't deal with a fast deck with any sort of denial.

Still, there are so many directions you can go with a slower, fat aggro style, whether you want to play something like A Stompy or you want to build a Rock varient, and one thing that has always fascinated me about Magic is how a change of 6-10 cards can often completely reverse the percentages of a matchup. If you're creative, and you understand what makes decks tick, you can usually find some cards that hose the deck you're looking to beat while still being at least somewhat solid in other matchups.