[Discussion] Metagame Breakdown for GP Columbus

[SARCASTO]

So what are everyone’s thoughts on the Columbus metagame? Below are some random thoughts I had about the format. Feel free to disagree, but please tell me why you disagree instead of just, “you’re a noob who doesn’t know what he is talking about.”

Here are some points to analyze.


COMBO:

Decks:
Solidarity, TES, Simian belcher (not sure how good it is), Salvagers game, Iggy pop.

General Thoughts:
1. Out of these combo decks it seems like TES and solidarity are the best because they seem to be the most consistent and resilient to hate.
2. Combo has been on the rise lately as TES and solidarity have been making more noise than usual.

Good:
1. All the new loam decks running around are almost byes for you.
2. Pikula, probably the worst matchup is almost dead.
3. The goblins matchup is probably about 60/40 for most combo decks.
4. You will probably destroy any midrange deck like the rock or survival.
5. You will destroy any jank deck.
6. Unless you play against one of the decks listed in the bad section you should win game 1.
7. The storm decks are surprisingly resilient, unless facing multiple pieces of hate you will probably still win at least one of the next two games.

Bad:

1. Combo may not be the best deck for a large tournament because of their inherent ability to lose to themselves. I know people will disagree, but combo usually can’t recover from a bad draw nearly as well as the other archetypes because so many things in the deck are dead on their own.
2. For many of these combo decks it is difficult to play 16 rounds over two days while fighting through hate.
3. So many decks in this format have main deck cards that hate you. Faire stompy, stax, hannifish, pikula, and thresh all are bad matchups.
4. Unless you are very familiar with these decks they are generally pretty hard to play.



AGGRO:

Decks: Goblins, Affinity.

General Thoughts:

1. Goblins and affinity are the only real popular aggro decks in the format.
2. They are probably going to be the most played because they are very cheap compared to the other decks in legacy.

Good:

1. There is very little splash damage from each other; engineered plague and pyroclasm are not the tech against giant ravagers and enforcers.
2. These decks are usually the easiest to play when compared to the rest of Legacy.
3. There is no hate that effectively stops goblins dead, especially if they have disenchant effects.
4. There is very little hate for affinity in any sideboards, outside the wrecking ball of serenity in some hanni fish.
5. A lot of people delude themselves into thinking they have a better matchup than they do.


Bad:

1. People are gunning for goblins. You will play against very few decks that don’t have a specific plan against you.
2. Almost all of the loam decks ruin aggro.
3. Most combo has an equal or better clock against you game 1.



AGGRO CONTROL:

Decks: Thresh, Hanni Fish, Fairy Stompy, Pikula, Red death

Note: This part is pretty biased of fish type decks because I have not played Pikula, Fairy stompy, or Red death.

General Thoughts:

1. These decks

Good:

1. Aggro control decks are not really blown out by any particular archetype.
2. You can customize the decks to do better against certain archetypes fairly easily so if you notice a lot of combo or goblins or whatever you can adjust accordingly.
3. There is no real good hate against these decks. Thresh is the easiest to hate with graveyard removal, but even that, unless its recurring doesn’t really stop them.


Bad:

1. Since these decks are metagame decks you really need to know the matchups they face. This has many aspects to it, but in general you have to know what to counter/ name with Meddling mage/ brainstorm away. Since there is no way to gain card advantage with these decks failing to disrupt the other deck correctly usually means game over.
2. Goblins are a bad matchup game 1 unless you have tuned your deck to beat them. (really, red thresh is the only one I know that has done this.)
3. Unless you can protect a mage on LFTL



LOAM/Land Recursion:

Decks: 43 lands, eternal garden, terrageddon, aggro loam

General Thoughts:

1. These decks are fairly new to legacy, but the loam engine is totally ridiculous. These decks and variations have placed at competitive tournaments and seem like they could be tuned to be top competitors.

Good:

1. If the game goes long you have the best card draw engine.
2. Recurring wastelands will win you many games by itself.
3. Most of these totally crush aggro and aggro control.
4. Few legacy SB cards really dent the loam engine.


Bad:

1. You cannot beat combo game 1.
2. Combo game 2 and 3 you better have a damn good plan because these decks are not the quickest at winning.
3. If a deck has hate for LFTL the battle becomes much harder. Make sure if they chalice for 2 you don’t auto lose. (does not apply to eternal garden.)



OTHERS

Stax, Survival, Landstill


General Thoughts:

1. Unless I’m missing something, it seems like playing landstill is just a bad idea.
a. Landstill is not that good against storm combo.
b. Not that good against aggro control.
c. Bad against goblins.
d. Bad against loam.
2. Survival just keeps getting worse and worse.
a. Most survival builds are terrible if they don’t get survival.
b. Combo ruins survival about as much as it ruins loam.
c. Pithing needle is played main deck.
d. Goblins still ruins you most of the time unless you’re playing R/G.
3. I love stax. I played the deck for the longest time and it was good to me… sometimes.
a. You absolutely ruin combo.
b. Good against Aggro control.
c. Bad against goblins.
d. Maybe even with loam.
e. Much worse on the draw.
f. Will time out too many matches at a large tourney.
g. If you lose game 1 I can’t imagine being able to pull out games 2+3 in time.
h. The lock pieces and mana have to fall right into place or you probably lose.



I am getting tired of writing this. I’m sure I will add to it later, but for now tell me what you think.

[Happy Gilmore]

You forgot Enchantress, Boros, and the three color agro decks. Its a good start and certainly a good topic for discussion.

[Xero]

This is a good thread to have. I totally disagree about Survival, however.


2. Survival just keeps getting worse and worse.
a. Most survival builds are terrible if they don’t get survival.
b. Combo ruins survival about as much as it ruins loam.
c. Pithing needle is played main deck.
d. Goblins still ruins you most of the time unless you’re playing R/G.


Survival has done better recently, not worse. Needle isn't really in to many maindecks, and you should be running plenty of artifact killers anyways. Goblins and Combo are both winnable. I think RGBSA is the best of the Survival builds, and it should definitely be considered one of the top decks to watch out for at GP Columbus.

[URABAHN]

1. Unless I’m missing something, it seems like playing landstill is just a bad idea.
a. Landstill is not that good against storm combo.
b. Not that good against aggro control.
c. Bad against goblins.
d. Bad against loam.

I disagree that Landstill is bad against Storm combo, I think it's bad against Solidarity, but surprisingly solid against TES, IGGy Pop, and Golden Grahams. Counterspells + Stifle are a bit of a problem for decks that use Ill-Gotten Gains. Golden Grahams is susceptible to Instant speed creature removal and even Stifle. I cannot say with any degree of certainty how Landstill fares against Aluren.

I disagree that Landstill is bad against aggro control, I'm not exaggerating when I say that pure-control decks (especially board control) are heavily favored against aggro control decks like Fish, Gro, U/G Madness, and probably CounterSliver. Typical aggro-control deck are tempo-based decks running 10-14 efficient creatures and 8-10 counterspells. Landstill and other pure control decks run way more creature removal and sometimes way more counterspells which makes it difficult for aggro control with win with their critters.

Red Death and even Deadguy Ale (if you can call this aggro-control) may be exceptions because a fast, disruptive opening hand backed by efficient creatures can take control out the game before it even gets started. Landstill is still favored, but it's not by much.

Goblin decks are the reason Landstill fell out of favor. Landstill just sucks against Goblins. They'll run you out of removal, they'll run you out of Counterspells, and they'll chip, chip, chip away at your life total until a Siege-Gang Commander attacks and throws 1 or 2 Goblins at your head. Landstill has tinkered with answers to the Goblins problem by running Humility, but :2::w::w: isn't always easy to come by against a decks that runs Wasteland and Rishadan Port. Speaking of which, Black builds (Duck Hunt) have experimented with Decree of Pain and Tsabo's Decree, which essentially cost :5: and :6:.

If you're going to play Landstill at the GP, make sure you've a way to beat/avoid Goblins. The same goes for Loam-based decks.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

Goblin decks are the reason Landstill fell out of favor. Landstill just sucks against Goblins. They'll run you out of removal, they'll run you out of Counterspells, and they'll chip, chip, chip away at your life total until a Siege-Gang Commander attacks and throws 1 or 2 Goblins at your head. Landstill has tinkered with answers to the Goblins problem by running Humility, but :2::w::w: isn't always easy to come by against a decks that runs Wasteland and Rishadan Port. Speaking of which, Black builds (Duck Hunt) have experimented with Decree of Pain and Tsabo's Decree, which essentially cost :5: and :6:.

I disagree with this. The reason that Landstill fell out of favor was that after the Summer '05 metagame was defined as Goblins and Landstill, people began playing Solidarity and Rabid Wombat, as both had matchups against both decks that were overall amazingly positive (with Wombat having a somewhat stronger matchup against Goblins, but losing horrendously to Solidarity).

I never had much trouble beating Goblins with Blue/White Landstill, running maindeck Disenchant and DoJ. The matchup wasn't amazing, but a competent Landstill player was definitely favored. I remember Matt insisting that Port gave Goblins the matchup, and my beating him 6-0 to counter the point.

With mono-color Virginia decks named after bad cards on the decline in popularity, I think now is a great time to bring UW Landstill back.

[Di]

Aw man I gotta go to work so I can't give a long-winded rant like I want to, but I just want to mention how incredibly wrong you are on most of your points. The LMF is evidence of this. Solidarity going uphill? The deck hasn't made a top8 since 2006! Survival keeps getting worse, yet somehow it manages to top8 every single event? And also if you ever got around the looking at those lists, you'll realize how good their game without SotF on the table can be. Pithing Needle isn't that big of a deal if the pilot isn't a moron. You also basically assert Landstill as being bad against every single deck in the format, which is a blatant lie. The deck puts up results, and can compete against pretty much every deck.

Tonight I'll finish this rant, depending on how the other responses go.

[Machinus]

Hey Jack -

How about we play 100 games, Goblins vs. Landstill. Whoever loses gets banned forever. Deal?

I didn't think so.

[noobslayer]

With mono-color Virginia decks named after bad cards on the decline in popularity, I think now is a great time to bring UW Landstill back.

Enjoy losing your combo and loam-deck match ups.

[SpatulaOfTheAges]

Enjoy losing your combo and loam-deck match ups.

Landstill beats pretty much every combo deck that isn't Solidarity.


]Hey Jack -

How about we play 100 games, Goblins vs. Landstill. Whoever loses gets banned forever. Deal?

I didn't think so.

Seriously, dude, are you in 7th grade? Don't answer your own pretentious questions. Given Jack's blatant willingness to get himself banned from everything, I don't think you actually want to make that offer to him.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

Hey Jack -

How about we play 100 games, Goblins vs. Landstill. Whoever loses gets banned forever. Deal?

I didn't think so.

Okay. Tell me when you want to do this.



Enjoy losing your combo and loam-deck match ups.

I say this as someone who tried really hard to make Life from the Loam work:

Loam decks can't actually win games 2 and 3 if the opponent brings in any kind of graveyard hate. It doesn't matter how good game 1 is. At best they can try to go to time. This is why Life looks amazing in testing but tends not to do that well in actual tournaments.

[BreathWeapon]

Landstill is good against storm combo, it has a good game one against TES and game two it boards into Meddling Mage and Duress and has the advantage against High Tide if it can get off its ass and attack. It's unfavorable against Goblins and bad against Loam, but I've seen good pilots salvage the Goblins match up. If the metagame ever becomes Combo vs Aggro-Control, then Landstill will come back with a vengeance while Goblins flounder.

I agree with the assessment of Loam to an extent, but I think adding Duress and Cabal Therapy or Orim's Chant, Abeyance and Gilded Light to the MD and Leyline of the Void, Null Rod and Chalice of the Void to the SB do not make it as clear cut as it seems. I've seen Extended pros discuss Null Rod and Chalice of the Void MD in Aggro-Loam for the GP, so I think it's going to be one of the strongest contenders there, along with AfFOWnity which is also easy for Extended players to port. We could also see Extended people with Ichorid, but I'm not certain how well it would do.

Null Rod should be all over GP Columbus, it shuts down Aether Vial, it shuts down Tormod's Crypt, it shuts down Umezawa's Jitte, it shuts down Engineered Explosives, it shuts down Affinity and it's the best possible bomb in the SB for TES.

I also imagine High Tide will do well and Survival will do poorly despite their contradictory results so far.

I'll bet 2/1 that a rogue deck wins the whole thing.

[Zilla]

Moved to the LMF for what I hope are obvious reasons.

[CalebD]

COMBO:

Decks:
Solidarity, TES, Simian belcher (not sure how good it is), Salvagers game, Iggy pop.

General Thoughts:
1. Out of these combo decks it seems like TES and solidarity are the best because they seem to be the most consistent and resilient to hate.
2. Combo has been on the rise lately as TES and solidarity have been making more noise than usual.

Good:
2. Pikula, probably the worst matchup is almost dead.
3. The goblins matchup is probably about 60/40 for most combo decks.

Simian/Cret Belcher is solid. It's simpler to play than TES or Solidarity as it only has two main gameplans, and it executes those gameplans pretty well.

Stifles have started to see much more use since TES has taken off. TES can work around Stifles, of course, but they become very deadly in decks running FoW, Daze, counterspell and Meddling mage(only relevant if they see a turn two, but with the free countermagic it happens).

If I was going to play combo at the GP, it would be Solidarity. I really wanted to play belcherstorm, but it deals with the addition of stifles in the metagame much worse than TES does.

Pikula could a bad matchup for Solidarity, depending on the pilots, but TES and Belcher can cope with discard surprisingly well.

I think any combo player worth the cards he's using will be able to beat gobblins more than 60% of the time. If I was going to name a general statistic it would probably be 70-30 or even 80-20, depending on what hate the gobbo player is running.

[Silverdragon]

For me the question is what the pros think will be format defining and the metagame will evolve around that. There are 3 points you have to look at:
1. Day one will see a lot of aggro but day two will have a lot of control/aggro-control. Most pros like to outplay their opponent and will therefore not play aggro unless it is the best deck in the format and even then it is more likely that they will simply play decks with strong hate for the aggromatchup (see PT Yokohama right now).
2. Combo is really really good. Although many Stormcombo decks will ocassionally lose to themselves and random hate many pros will play them because they are simply the most powerful decks out there (see Dragonstorm at Worlds 2006).
3. Because of the huge presence of Combo and Control/Aggro-Control there will be almost no glasscannon decks to hate on aggro like Rifter however there will be some Disruptiondecks (Red Death and Deadguy) who will get lucky and get into day two.

[Nihil Credo]

I concur that Empty the Warrens will *definitely* make combo much more relevant in the format, and I believe Columbus will likely show it.

Back in the Stone Age when Solidarity was the only viable combination deck (since Belcher fizzled 50% of the time), in order to have game against combo you needed either 1) to consistently win by turn 4 or 2) to be able to cast at least 3 disruption spells within your first 5 turns while keeping decent pressure on board.

Now you need to be able to: answer 10 Goblin tokens on turn one *and* play disruption spells on turn 1-2 (or else die to Tendrils) *and* provide a good clock (or else die to a topdecked Infernal Tutor).

[BreathWeapon]

Bringing Goblins and Threshold seem like a big risk to me, assuming that TES is the most powerful deck in the format, the Pros are going to be using it, and that leaves Goblins with an auto loss, and while Threshold seem like a good idea with TES being the most powerful deck in the format, TES is designed to beat it, and people are going to react to TES with control and prison, which are bad for aggro-control.

I think Goblins and Aggro-Loam are going to be the "Glass Cannons" that deal with control, prison and aggro-control while avoiding TES as much as possible, and Aggro-Loam can prepare a MD and SB to have a chance against combo.

Affinity seems like the real wild card, that deck morphs between aggro, aggro-combo, aggro-control and aggro-prison depending on the build, and there's a lot of innovation to be done here.

[Awesomator]

Bringing Goblins and Threshold seem like a big risk to me, assuming that TES is the most powerful deck in the format, the Pros are going to be using it, and that leaves Goblins with an auto loss, and while Threshold seem like a good idea with TES being the most powerful deck in the format, TES is designed to beat it, and people are going to react to TES with control and prison, which are bad for aggro-control.

I think Goblins and Aggro-Loam are going to be the "Glass Cannons" that deal with control, prison and aggro-control while avoiding TES as much as possible, and Aggro-Loam can prepare a MD and SB to have a chance against combo.

I'm sorry WHAT?!?!? TES is a strong deck but not the best deck in the format. Pros will mostly be playing their own designed decks, and very few would be playing TES.

Goblins isn't a bye for TES. Game 1 goblins has to race a tendrils which is very unfavorable. Games 2 and 3 with chalices and pillars are very difficult to deal with.. Especially if Goblin players are aggressively mulliganing like they're supposed to.

TES has a bad matchup against NQG variants as well as most other aggro control decks.

In case you didn't know, TES is going to be an extremely small portion of the meta, and it isn't anywhere near unwinnable. It's not nearly enough to stop goblins from making the top 8. When i play Goblins, I'm more worried about solidarity with 4 BEB than TES.

[BreathWeapon]

Not the best deck, the most powerful deck, and I believe there are going to be a lot of the Vintage Long crowd and the Extended TEPS crowd that are going to be picking up the deck.

I have never lost a match against Goblins in a tournament with TES, and I'm about 40/60 with Threshold. If High Tide is more intimidating to Goblins then TES, that most be one awesome High Tide pilot and one terrible TES pilot.

[C.P.]

Not the best deck, the most powerful deck, and I believe there are going to be a lot of the Vintage Long crowd and the Extended TEPS crowd that are going to be picking up the deck.

I have never lost a match against Goblins in a tournament with TES, and I'm about 40/60 with Threshold. If High Tide is more intimidating to Goblins then TES, that most be one awesome High Tide pilot and one terrible TES pilot.

Goblins can beat TES, although it is not a favorable matchup. Yes, TES goes off on goblin's face on turn 2, and game one shouldn't be bad for TES, but That's about it. I've seen lots of Goblin players using Chalice and Pillar to their advantage to win the game. TES is a good deck, but it cannot keep goblins out of the picture just by itself. It is not the most powerful deck by any means.

I agree that vintage and extended players who are familar with the tendrils storm combo will pick the deck up, but that is not the major factor, because most of those players tend to be prey for the true legacy players who really knows their format.

[Bryant Cook]

Here's the problem, a good TES player can go off through Chalice or Pillar. However, if the Goblins player has both it becomes more difficult; which is why we play Hull Breach. Goblins has to have both to do anything effective and it has to happen two games in a row. I've never lost to goblins in an event and I don't plan on it.

How is it not the most powerful? It plays more broken cards than any other deck in the format.

Have you ever played Vintage? The difference in skill is unbelieveable and took me by surprise in my first major Vintage event. Vintage players can certainly out play the average Legacy player any day of the week.

[etrigan]

Not the best deck, the most powerful deck, and I believe there are going to be a lot of the Vintage Long crowd and the Extended TEPS crowd that are going to be picking up the deck.

Playing Extended TEPS is far, far different from playing TES. In TEPS, you have Mind's Desire. Mind's Desire into either another Mind's Desire, Sins of the Past, or Burning Wish + acceleration and then the deck pretty much plays itself.

The Vintage Long crowd, while strong, are relatively small in number. I dont know how many can be expected to show up. Those that do will probably do okay.

But the Extended TEPS guys will likely get rolled. The skill level required to pilot the two decks is miles apart. I'd be more concerned with Extended players with Goblins, or maybe even 'Tog, but not TES.

[BreathWeapon]

Playing Extended TEPS is far, far different from playing TES. In TEPS, you have Mind's Desire. Mind's Desire into either another Mind's Desire, Sins of the Past, or Burning Wish + acceleration and then the deck pretty much plays itself.

The Vintage Long crowd, while strong, are relatively small in number. I dont know how many can be expected to show up. Those that do will probably do okay.

But the Extended TEPS guys will likely get rolled. The skill level required to pilot the two decks is miles apart. I'd be more concerned with Extended players with Goblins, or maybe even 'Tog, but not TES.

People who use combo tend to use combo in all of the formats that interest, and while TEPS is not TES, it's the one deck TEPS pilot are going to be attracted to in the format.

Anybody who can put 3+ storm into an Empty the Warrens is a potential threat.

[Zach Tartell]

Anybody who can put 3+ storm into an Empty the Warrens is a potential threat.

edit: I had an extravagant response to this that was pretty close to a "your bad at magic" statement. Not worth it. If you think TES will ride to victory at colombus on the backs of eight Warrens tokens, you've got some testing to do.

[Awesomator]

You must be playing against bad goblin players if you havent lost a match. TES is a BAD matchup and far from unwinnable.. very far. It's not just.. ok I Bwish for hull breach and then I win. You have to be able to wish through a quick clock, and then cast it, which with double chalice/pillar or a mix is not easy to do. TES isn't the most powerful deck in the format because players have so many ways to disrupt your broken cards, many which are played in the format. The deck also relies on a few select cards and has fairly dead cards in each matchup. You have to be able to get through all of the hate to win it and go 6-1-1 or so to get to day 2 which is much easier for Goblins to do. Chalice for 0 is very hard to deal with T1 when you're also facing land disruption combined with a clock. A GOOD Goblin player will mull aggressively for these cards, or a hand that can race.

And for the record, TES is very difficult to play, and any player who decides to just pick it up and wing it won't make it very far at all. There will be between 0 and 1 Top 8s coming from TES, and probably between 0 and 1 day twos. The very few good players playing the deck will have to get through tough matchups that they will definitely face in the day, and the worse players don't have a snowball's chance in hell of day 2ing with it. Just because the deck plays the most broken cards, doesn't make it the best choice for the Grand Prix, at all.

[CalebD]

The point is, you can play around chalice, and you can play around pillar, but if the gobblin player has both you need to cast wish-breach. As Wasted said, rarely will a gobblins player get the right hate two games in a row, and if they do you still have outs.

I've lost two matches to gobblins playing COMBO IN GENERAL in this format. Those games were lost to horrendous mulling, not the actual gobblins deck itself.

For every hate card gobblins plays it slows them down. That's why I've been able to win through 3 pithing needles when playing belcher, or double chalice with TeS. If they don't have the hate, then you're faster than them. If they do have the hate, you can play around it, and you're still faster than them. It's that simple.

Gobblins suxorz. :wink:

[Awesomator]

I can't wait to see TES' W/L record for the tournament. The deck is not going to stand through 2 GP days through hate, clocked disruption, and counters. Will be fun to watch. I wouldn't go around saying it's going to be around a lot, because you're convincing people to put in more hate against it, and convincing more people to play thresh, which is good for me, BRILLIANT! There are a lot of decks out there that have good gob and thresh matchups (not that you have a good thresh matchup), they just need to have a VERY solid win record through a diverse field.

[Shriekmaw]

I just wanted to give a quick breakdown on what I think will show up in Columbus in the Legacy Grand Prix.

I think that Goblins will probably make up the biggest percentage of the field, somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-30%.

The next biggest played deck would be Combo Decks 20-25% (Iggy Pop, TES, and Solidarity). The biggest combo deck will be Iggy Pop by far.

Threshold variants will also be around 10-15% of the field.

I could be off on the percentages, but I believe that will be the order of most popular decks: Goblins, Combo, and Threshold.

[BreathWeapon]

I can't wait to see TES' W/L record for the tournament. The deck is not going to stand through 2 GP days through hate, clocked disruption, and counters. Will be fun to watch. I wouldn't go around saying it's going to be around a lot, because you're convincing people to put in more hate against it, and convincing more people to play thresh, which is good for me, BRILLIANT! There are a lot of decks out there that have good gob and thresh matchups (not that you have a good thresh matchup), they just need to have a VERY solid win record through a diverse field.

I'm above 50% against Threshold with TES right now, and I mean U/g/w Threshold with MD Stifles and Null Rod ala Birdshit; I just figured out how to get around a discarded Force of Will, in hand Stifle, on the board Meddling Mage and on the board Null Rod or Chalice of the Void at 0 with a single SB card. It takes some incredible intuition to do it, but with a note book and the formulas written out or pattern recognition skills the deck can just ignore the board state and combo out with one of the most broken cards ever printed for combo.

I think I fear Prison more than I do Control at this point, but feel free to bring Goblins or other aggro, I could use the byes to get something to eat.

[Xero]

I just wanted to give a quick breakdown on what I think will show up in Columbus in the Legacy Grand Prix.

I think that Goblins will probably make up the biggest percentage of the field, somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-30%.

The next biggest played deck would be Combo Decks 20-25% (Iggy Pop, TES, and Solidarity). The biggest combo deck will be Iggy Pop by far.

Iggy Pop is expensive and hard to play well. Why do people think Combo is going to be more popular at Columbus than it has been at other tournaments? Combo has never been 25% of the field, and I don't expect it to be anywhere near that high at the GP.

[Shriekmaw]

Iggy Pop is expensive and hard to play well. Why do people think Combo is going to be more popular at Columbus than it has been at other tournaments? Combo has never been 25% of the field, and I don't expect it to be anywhere near that high at the GP.



My reason behind combo being so popular is the location of the Grand Prix. This is very close to where the deck was created and a lot of pros are also going to show up. A lot of pros like combo decks, and this GP will be no exception to that.

I could be wrong, but I really believe combo will show up in force.

[Bryant Cook]

Combo decks will be at the higher tables, however, like every other large event will only be 5-10% of the metagme.

[Awesomator]

breathweapon.. Saying that you're over the 50% mark with TES against NQG means you've tested very little or with very shitty players. Looks like you've got it all figured out, I predict your record to be 1 and 2 with a bye, unless you decide to do some ACTUAL testing. If your deck was as good as you think it is, EVERYONE would play it, whther or not they can play it well.
"5. A lot of people delude themselves into thinking they have a better matchup than they do" Thats a good quote, you should probably pay attention to it. When the GP comes I hope you get to play against good goblins players, because it doesn't look like you've tested very much and I doubt you will even win the match.


The only time combo is ever really played a lot is when it completely breaks the shit out of the format, combo is good, but it won't be over 10%.. Period. Some better players will of course be attracted to combo and will do fine with it, although most won't.

Goblins won't be any more than 20% of the field, probably more like 15%.

The MOST played decks will be decks that hate on tier 1 decks. Engineered plagues will be around a lot, and players will assume they have a good goblin matchup.

Field Roughly IMO
15% Gobs
10% combo
5-8% Thresh
The rest will be a small amount of each other deck in the format, and then a whole lot of random decks that probably won't make it very far with the exception of the pros.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

breathweapon.. Saying that you're over the 50% mark with TES against NQG means you've tested very little or with very shitty players. Looks like you've got it all figured out, I predict your record to be 1 and 2 with a bye, unless you decide to do some ACTUAL testing. If your deck was as good as you think it is, EVERYONE would play it, whther or not they can play it well.

I just want to point out that this is a logical fallacy. That's like telling the guy that invented paper clips, "Look, if these things were so useful, everyone would already use them."

Time doesn't work that way. Someone has to invent and, even more, popularize something before it's widespread.

Now that said, I do agree that over 50% against Gro sounds unrealistic for TES. Over 50% on the play, maybe.

Stifle will, or should, overtake the P. Needle spot by Columbus, anyway. It's slightly worse against Goblins, but so much better against the field in general.

[Awesomator]

I'm not talking about players already playing it in tournaments, I'm talking about players on the source who test the deck and don't find it format breaking. If it was as powerful as people say, then combo wouldn't be predicted to be between 5 and 10% of the field as even wastedlife predicted.
The deck is strong and quick, but when it has to deal with hate it has to actually draw the burning wish, or pay life looking for it. If they have it, it will usually slow the clock down a turn or two, giving the opponent a chance to take over.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

Every new deck ever had to go through a period of bullshit before people thought it was good. Landstill, Vial-Goblins, Solidarity and Threshold all spent at least six months in obscurity, being mocked, before anyone took them seriously. Often it takes someone doing well with the deck at a major tournament or regularly beating people to get any recognition (TES is halfway through that phase now). The point still stands; "It's not played" doesn't mean "It's not good". You need actual arguments for that.

[Awesomator]

It has won one major tournament, then 0-2 dropped the next day TMLO2 Day 2. Like I said TES is very good, I play it second to Goblins, but it's very far from format breaking. Just because the deck plays broken cards, doesn't make it a broken deck. Don't forget that although the deck is consistant it does occasionally lose to itself through bad draws or bad D Returns. Broken decks get banned because they completely destroy the format, I don't think any cards in TES should be banned.

[MattH]

This will be an EXTREMELY interesting tournament, field-wise. I expect a lot of everything good: goblins, fast combo, aggro-control. Not so much Tide. Not so much control, though I can see certain control decks in contention for T8. Everything looks good.

Whenever I think of the GPs, I always think of the archery contest scene in Disney's Robin Hood. The Tide contingent, the TES freaks, the lone kook (Enchantress?), a sea of goblin players and people aping IBA's decks. I just love it.

[BreathWeapon]

breathweapon.. Saying that you're over the 50% mark with TES against NQG means you've tested very little or with very shitty players. Looks like you've got it all figured out, I predict your record to be 1 and 2 with a bye, unless you decide to do some ACTUAL testing. If your deck was as good as you think it is, EVERYONE would play it, whther or not they can play it well.
"5. A lot of people delude themselves into thinking they have a better matchup than they do" Thats a good quote, you should probably pay attention to it. When the GP comes I hope you get to play against good goblins players, because it doesn't look like you've tested very much and I doubt you will even win the match.


The only time combo is ever really played a lot is when it completely breaks the shit out of the format, combo is good, but it won't be over 10%.. Period. Some better players will of course be attracted to combo and will do fine with it, although most won't.

Goblins won't be any more than 20% of the field, probably more like 15%.

The MOST played decks will be decks that hate on tier 1 decks. Engineered plagues will be around a lot, and players will assume they have a good goblin matchup.

Field Roughly IMO
15% Gobs
10% combo
5-8% Thresh
The rest will be a small amount of each other deck in the format, and then a whole lot of random decks that probably won't make it very far with the exception of the pros.

Please, I have just as much experience with TES as Wastedlife and in a meta that consists of combo, aggro-control, prison and several decks in between. It doesn't matter how good an aggro pilot is, mulliganing into a Chalice of the Void just sets their clock back and makes those SB Shattering Sprees all the more worthwhile.

There's a lot aggro can do to make it's combo match up better than it is, but SBing Chalice of the Void isn't enough, and Pyrostatic Pillar is incredibly weak; take a look at Angel Stompy's MD and SB and you'll see how far an aggro deck has to go in order to have a fighting chance against combo.

Thinking you can win the match against Combo with Goblins is the definition of "A lot of people delude themselves into thinking they have a better matchup than they do"

Edit: I imagine a good percentage of the field is going to be Extended ports.

[Awesomator]

Pillar + Chalice are both diverse cards that help in several matchups not even necessarily combo. Angel Stompy needs so much hate because the deck doesn't win quick enough. Pillar is EXTREMELY far from weak in the matchup, You absolutely need burning wish and you need it fast. You take a minimum of 4 damage for every Pillar in play. That's if you already have burning wish in hand, it becomes a lot more dangerous if you don't, and kills a combo out that you abolutely need to dig for. Nevermind if it actually comes in multiples. Combo is a bad matchup once again, but still very very far from unwinnable, reading is tech, you should try it.

[BreathWeapon]

Pillar + Chalice are both diverse cards that help in several matchups not even necessarily combo. Angel Stompy needs so much hate because the deck doesn't win quick enough. Pillar is EXTREMELY far from weak in the matchup, You absolutely need burning wish and you need it fast. You take a minimum of 4 damage for every Pillar in play. That's if you already have burning wish in hand, it becomes a lot more dangerous if you don't, and kills a combo out that you abolutely need to dig for. Nevermind if it actually comes in multiples. Combo is a bad matchup once again, but still very very far from unwinnable, reading is tech, you should try it.

There's nothing to stop TES from just casting Tendrils or Warrens for 9, I've seen people mull their hands into a Pillar and just lose because damage is a soft lock and they're under the impression you have to answer it.

[Nihil Credo]

Breathweapon: I won't dispute your claim to your matchup percentages, because I'm a terrible combo player (except for Solidarity) and I've read on the TES thread how much you've metagamed against Threshold. However, I would like to remind you that if your plan is

with a note book and the formulas written out or pattern recognition skills the deck can just ignore the board state and combo out with one of the most broken cards ever printed for combo
then you'd better have some very good pattern recognition skills, because bringing a note book with your list of Doomsday* stacks is illegal and a good way to give out free game wins.

*It isn't a secret. Anyone who is interested in beating TES is just one click away from reading your posts on the deck thread.

[blackguard90]

hey, lets say that you run into one of those few black decks that run hate (red death, b/w confidant, pox, even hanni fish (Counterspells too) ), how good is TES then? I know the first game is a pretty fair 50/50, but what comes after that? When those decks board in hate like cabal therapy, stuff that kills your artifacts, even extirpate, their match-up gets a lot better. I can seriously say that if you meet one of these decks, your going to have a very difficult time, especially confidant and red death.

How does TES recover from a butt-load of disruption coming from extra draws in confidant, and a 5/5 turn 1 monster backed with disruption from red death?

Also, note that empty the warrens is only useful game one, as all of these decks run E. plague.

Also, whats this bullshit about TES favored over thresh? A lot of times the TES player's infernal tutor gets forced and the dumass burns himself and loses the game, also after SB, stifle will come in, and all kind of hate, so whats your percentage for game 2 and 3?

Stop fucking saying that TES owns every deck, I will laugh my ass off if I get to play you (breathweapon) at the GP, or if you get to play against any deck running heavy disruption.

[Awesomator]

You Rarely cast warrens against goblins!! LOL too many people run sharpshooter, would be very conditional. And for the record, with one pillar and no clock you can still tendrils for 20 obviously, thats with NO clock.

Blackguard90 is saying the same thing I've been trying to tell you breathweapon, clearly you've done no testing and you will most likely scrub out. The decks listed by blackguard90 are going to be the MOST POPULAR decks, because they run engineered plague which convinces players they have a good goblins matchup, and they have hand disruption or counter disruption. You are going to face a ton of unfavorable matchups in the day, and I doubt you've done the testing to squeeze out of the games to wins.

[Happy Gilmore]

This discussion has be derailed long enough. Although it might be a valid point, TES is not the center of this thread. The purpose is to discuss the metagame in general.

The fear of combo I think will be the driving force at the GP. TES is very resiliant, being able to go off both early and through counter magic. And contrary to popular belief, I feel that Solidarity will make its pressense known as well. I would be prepared to see both combo and agro control decks that can beat combo. I have no doubt that there will be a good number of Goblins, but I don't think it will be a good choice because many matchups present an auto loss game 1. Combo has too much of an advantage. However I think if the board for goblins is built correctly it can give them a chance to pick up the remaining two games.

Countersliver/ Thresh/ and even Red Death should be there in enough numbers to constitute testing againts them. AnwarA101 jokes with me about there being only like 3-4 people playing Red Death at the GP, but I don't believe him. It has recieved alot of coverage and people as far away as Brazil have picked it up. I would predict it to be 4-5% of the field, which might not seem like alot but with 400-700 people it amounts to a good number. Red Death also happens to be one of the cheeper decks to make in Legacy.

The wild card in my oppinion will be the Survival and Control decks. They both seem too slow to effectively do anything vs. combo but we shall see. There are lists spashing two colors for meddling mage but then I can see a stong possiblility of loosing to goblins. The benefits are that their are so, so many different varieties of survival that someone might create a setup that works. Control is even more of a ??? since it includes decks that run no blue cards. Legacy is a very pliable format and with pro players actually preparing for this one I am excited to see all the new and innovative ideas.

Damn, I wish we could get the decklists for the GPTs :rolleyes: .

[BreathWeapon]

You Rarely cast warrens against goblins!! LOL too many people run sharpshooter, would be very conditional. And for the record, with one pillar and no clock you can still tendrils for 20 obviously, thats with NO clock.

Blackguard90 is saying the same thing I've been trying to tell you breathweapon, clearly you've done no testing and you will most likely scrub out. The decks listed by blackguard90 are going to be the MOST POPULAR decks, because they run engineered plague which convinces players they have a good goblins matchup, and they have hand disruption or counter disruption. You are going to face a ton of unfavorable matchups in the day, and I doubt you've done the testing to squeeze out of the games to wins.


I cast Warrens against Goblins all the time, assuming there is a Goblinsharpshooter main, the opponent can't tutor for it and cast it in time. There's not a lot goblins can do against turn one Diminishing Returns followed by an Empty the Warrens for 10+ storm, you usually win this way if you want to win before Pyrostatic Pillar hits or if you want to win around a Tormod's Crypt.

Discard isn't that difficult, the deck just casts its artifact acceleration and lands and sand bags until it can hit a tutor and win off the top of the deck, unless the opponent brings in Null Rod the match tends to be in TES's favor, because game one Warrens is an unfair advantage and game two the opponent is SBing in hate for Warrens when he should be SBing in less specific hate in order to prevent the opponent from winning off the top deck, replacing Xantid Swarm with Dark Confidant also helps some what, and if TES wants to keep that specific match up in mind then Compost is an option.

Threshold can be beaten, I'm up against it post board all of the time with cards more threatening than most Threshold decks run MD or even SB, it comes down to turning Daze against them and using DDAY to get around their Meddling Mage, Null Rod, discarded Force of Will or Stifle.

No one is claiming that TES is invincible, in fact I have a miserable record against Faerie Stompy, AfFOWnity and Stax and an unfavorable record against Fish, but the match ups where people think TES is unfavorable aren't as bad as they make them out to be.

Getting back on track, I think HappyGilmore is bringing up an interesting point, combo is going to be one of the driving forces of the GP, because it is the cheapest archetype to assemble, and the player can choose between exploiting skill gaps with TES or disregarding skill gaps with Belcher, which is really alarming when you think about it.

[Zay]

@ Happy Gilmore

I found this site that has the GPT, Garden City, MI
http://www.professional-events.com/decks/WotC/GPTColumbus07/GPTColumbus-041507.htm

I'll be going to 3 of these trials.
I'll try to give a report on what i see there

-Zay

[blackguard90]

Countersliver/ Thresh/ and even Red Death should be there in enough numbers to constitute testing againts them. AnwarA101 jokes with me about there being only like 3-4 people playing Red Death at the GP, but I don't believe him. It has recieved alot of coverage and people as far away as Brazil have picked it up. I would predict it to be 4-5% of the field, which might not seem like alot but with 400-700 people it amounts to a good number. Red Death also happens to be one of the cheeper decks to make in Legacy.

Damn, I wish we could get the decklists for the GPTs :rolleyes: .

I am probably going to the GP with Red Death, as it is just so cool. But the question of rather or not my dad is going to Ohio next month determines if I am going or not.

Anyways, I expect quite a few pikulas and red death decks that show up just because the combo crowd is going to be bigger. And anyways, red death have a 45-50% match-up against goblins, while pikulas that main deck plague have a 60%. It seems to me that it is definately a good option to play aggro-control decks for the GP.

Also, on a sidenote: Red death is not cheap... It is a lot more expensive than goblins:

Lets consider the MINIMUM values for the cards:
4x UN Sinkhole 70
4x Wasteland 25
4x Bloodstained 32
3-4x delta 40-52
4x Shades 25
4x Gator 15
3x Chain lightning 15
3x rev badlands 45
4x hippies (4th edition AKA cheap hyppy) 12
4x duress 6
4x hymn 4
4x dark ritual 4
4x rotting giant 2
4x bolt 6

Total: 304-316 dollars... Also, reminding you that these cards are all the "lesser" sets (i.e. revised, 4th etc) and ALSO, these are ebay prices or even lower. So lets the deck is probably around 320-350 dollars, which is fricking almost as expensive as threshold. Pikula isn't cheap either.

[Happy Gilmore]

I am probably going to the GP with Red Death, as it is just so cool. But the question of rather or not my dad is going to Ohio next month determines if I am going or not.

Anyways, I expect quite a few pikulas and red death decks that show up just because the combo crowd is going to be bigger. And anyways, red death have a 45-50% match-up against goblins, while pikulas that main deck plague have a 60%. It seems to me that it is definately a good option to play aggro-control decks for the GP.

Also, on a sidenote: Red death is not cheap... It is a lot more expensive than goblins:

Lets consider the MINIMUM values for the cards:
4x UN Sinkhole 70
4x Wasteland 25
4x Bloodstained 32
3-4x delta 40-52
4x Shades 25
4x Gator 15
3x Chain lightning 15
3x rev badlands 45
4x hippies (4th edition AKA cheap hyppy) 12
4x duress 6
4x hymn 4
4x dark ritual 4
4x rotting giant 2
4x bolt 6

Total: 304-316 dollars... Also, reminding you that these cards are all the "lesser" sets (i.e. revised, 4th etc) and ALSO, these are ebay prices or even lower. So lets the deck is probably around 320-350 dollars, which is fricking almost as expensive as threshold. Pikula isn't cheap either.

hmm...maybe I am spoiled because I have been playing Legacy since the separation of the banning lists. As expensive as the deck may be, none of those cards with the exeption of Sinkhole are difficult to get. Individuals driving (or flying) long distances to the GP more than likely have fetchlands in their collections already. Red Death is not cheep but very doable. Building Thresh requires slightly more money and in demand cards yet the deck is everywhere. The best thing going for Red Death imo is the fact that it is so much fun to play.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

@ Happy Gilmore

I found this site that has the GPT, Garden City, MI
http://www.professional-events.com/decks/WotC/GPTColumbus07/GPTColumbus-041507.htm

I'll be going to 3 of these trials.
I'll try to give a report on what i see there

-Zay


Truffle Shuffle and two Landstill in the top 8? I want that metagame.

[Awesomator]

Turn 3 Warchief, turn four matron a hasted sharpshooter, more than 10 storm wins, a 9 storm like you said wont. I think 1 TES player will day two and a few solidarity players will too. Solidarity will be played more than people think, and it won't do too bad either. I think the top 8 will probably look something like 2x Goblin Decks, 1x Combo, 2x Thresh decks, then the rest will be pros playing decks we've never seen.

[Xero]

Truffle Shuffle and two Landstill in the top 8? I want that metagame.

Um, why? Unless you like 2 hour matches...

[Bryant Cook]

I'm tired of people bashing on my deck (TES) in this thread. I was going to stay dignified and stay out of the arguments; however, it's become very clear some people have no idea what they're talking about.

@Awesomator- I happen to have a very amazing goblin's match-up and have never lost a round. I don't see reason why I would lose to an aggro deck, Chalice of the Void isn't enough to hold back TES it is fairly resilient. Also, I've tested against very competent opponents and have won a large Legacy event; don't discredit things that you may not have knowledge of. TES losing to goblins is right out ridiculous it even goes back to fundamentals of the game Combo > Aggro, Aggro > Control, Control > Combo. It seems all of your defenses are bad players or bad pilots; I'm not trying to be rude when I say this so I apologize, but maybe it's neither. Maybe it's you or your testing partner's not having the skill to play the decks correctly.


@Blackguard- I think you lack basic knowledge of the format to be perfectly honest, did Solidarity instantly dissolve because of Pikula's rising? No, it fought through it as will TES with Red Death. Discard is not difficult to overcome it happens to be the easiest hate to deal with. The main plan is to play artifact mana and sit on it until you draw a Tutor/Brainstorm effect and go wild.

The discard and "Turn one monster" takes time, the more time you give TES the worst position you will be in. I could careless if you turn one into Negator, in fact, that's the least of my concerns. I also play Dark Confidant to refuel card disadvantage so it is a double edged sword in which I have Tendrils to my advantage.

Have you ever played or tested TES? Threshold isn't that hard of a match-up, especially if you play main deck protection. Which I happened to notice you avoided in your arguments. TES also has Empty the Warrens in which many high placing lists do not have an out to main deck. There are always other plans also such as B.Wish -> Duress or double Tendrils. I think you should do some testing and get results before posting.

Also, I understand that Breathweapon may not be the greatest advocate for TES. We have our differences and his wording my be wrong in this thread but most of the facts he posted are indeed true. People need to take a step back and review things before posting and getting overworked in here.

[Volt]

Here's what I've learned from this thread:
1. Goblins never loses.
2. TES never loses.

[blackguard90]

@Blackguard- I think you lack basic knowledge of the format to be perfectly honest, did Solidarity instantly dissolve because of Pikula's rising? No, it fought through it as will TES with Red Death. Discard is not difficult to overcome it happens to be the easiest hate to deal with. The main plan is to play artifact mana and sit on it until you draw a Tutor/Brainstorm effect and go wild.

The discard and "Turn one monster" takes time, the more time you give TES the worst position you will be in. I could careless if you turn one into Negator, in fact, that's the least of my concerns. I also play Dark Confidant to refuel card disadvantage so it is a double edged sword in which I have Tendrils to my advantage.

Have you ever played or tested TES? Threshold isn't that hard of a match-up, especially if you play main deck protection. Which I happened to notice you avoided in your arguments. TES also has Empty the Warrens in which many high placing lists do not have an out to main deck. There are always other plans also such as B.Wish -> Duress or double Tendrils. I think you should do some testing and get results before posting.

Also, I understand that Breathweapon may not be the greatest advocate for TES. We have our differences and his wording my be wrong in this thread but most of the facts he posted are indeed true. People need to take a step back and review things before posting and getting overworked in here.


OK, since you want to argue, lets argue.

1) I am 16 and attending college right now, so time is very hard to come by, but I will say right now that I play at a store with 15-25 people every saturday playing legacy, and the metagame is very diverse, with at least 5-10 real decks. So my knowledge of the main legacy decks is not little.
2) Solidarity did not dissolve because pikula never gained that much popularity. The deck saw some showings after pikula played at GP and placed well, but in what big tournament did we see even 5% of the field that is pikula? My friend plays solidarity every week with me playing red death, and I can honestly say that I have a 60-70% first game.
3) YOUR knowledge of aggro control seems to be very meager. I never said that I sit there throwing disruption at you and letting you go. There is very little chance for you to win when I have a turn 1 gator, backed by turn 2 hymn, turn 3 sinkhole or duress or whatever. Gator with disruption means your dead, because a 4-turn clock with disruption (not just something stupid like 1 duress) will kill you about almost all the time, you can't just sit there and take in 5 damage a turn while sculpting your hand because i sure as hell ain't going to let you. Also, why the hell would I let you have a dark confidant? When I am packing 7 pieces of burn, I'll send 2 to your face and 1 to your wussy. 1 lightning bolt at your face can make you lose on turn 3, as I am playing reach as well, not just bitch-slapping you with gators.

Now, pikula is a even worse match-up for you. In your infinite rant of stupidity, you forgot to think about vindicate, which kills your LED and there is no outs for that. Also, pikula draws into hate a lot more, and it packs more. No doubt that this is a bad match-up, not to mention the fabled turn one dark rit, duress hymn that can set you back for an indefinate amount of turns.

3) I have played against TES, spanish whatever, belcher and all those decks. Threshold have a slight favor over you, as these decks are packing maindeck needles or stifiles, engineered exp, and overall a countershield. Some even play 3 md meddling mages just for you.

4) Breathweapon was being a arrogant a-hole saying that he can beat the crap out of aggro, aggro-control and all that. I never doubted the effectiveness of the deck, but since someone is saying that TES is the top dog, I had to disagree. Also, I never said anything about aggro-control having a HUGE favor over storm combo, just that it has a slight edge. No offense to you and your deck, just putting breathweapon back in his place.


Now back to topic: It seems like aggro-control would be a good choice for GP colombus because of the predicted percentages of combo. So which aggro control deck do you think would t-8? (don't say all of them are going to be thresh!)

[Bryant Cook]

First off calm down, I was clearly just making some points. Your hostility, attitude, and tone will only cause flamewars. Which doesn't belong in the LMF.

I could care less about how old you are or where you test, however, ypu seem to assume in your post you get the nut draw everygame. Who says I didn't just go turn one or two kill you? Turn one pass, you play Negator, my turn 2 combo off? You literally did nothing that turn which was my point. I have a vast knowledge of aggro control and how the game works, you seem to be lacking the basic concept of the average draw.

You don't seem to understand that Needle is a dead card vs. TES and Meddling Mage is shrugged off. We also play Swarm and Orim's chant to deal with counter magic.

[blackguard90]

First off calm down, I was clearly just making some points. Your hostility, attitude, and tone will only cause flamewars. Which doesn't belong in the LMF.

I could care less about how old you are or where you test, however, ypu seem to assume in your post you get the nut draw everygame. Who says I didn't just go turn one or two kill you? Turn one pass, you play Negator, my turn 2 combo off? You literally did nothing that turn which was my point. I have a vast knowledge of aggro control and how the game works, you seem to be lacking the basic concept of the average draw.

You don't seem to understand that Needle is a dead card vs. TES and Meddling Mage is shrugged off. We also play Swarm and Orim's chant to deal with counter magic.


I never said that I will always get nut draws and win, I just said I had a slight edge in the match-up, moreso with pikula. TES doesnt have a good turn 1 kill ratio either, while it is more optimal at turn 3, what real deck is going to let you do this all the time? The only deck that doesn't have any hate for you game 1 is goblins, and the deck still have a 35-40% first game.

Now on to needle, yep its useless.

Swarm, as your only creature, he will get swords pretty much all the time... Also, the threshplayer swording his own bear after you've played a tendrils for 20, your most likely out of gas. So nothing in thresh is a dead card (except needle, which is now being replaced by stifle). Now another note: How do you shrug off meddling mage? The only out you have is earthquake or rough//tumble. Hell, I even name tendrills or warrens aside from all the mana, infernal tutor etc. I have seen several games where the TES player's infernal tutor gets forced and he loses the game, as for chant thats SB. We are talking about game 1 and the percentages.

[Awesomator]

@Wastedlife First, if you haven't lost a match yet, then you haven't played against it enough. Second, nobody is talking poorly about your deck, like I said, I play it second to goblins and test with TES probably more than I do goblins. Third Control > Combo only gosd so far, the match is winnable for TES, just like it is winnable for goblins. I said TES is a poor matchup for Goblins, I've probably written it like 2,000 times in this thread, but I doubt anyone has tested the Goblin combo match more than I have, and from competent players. I'm annoyed with the fact that people call Goblins a bye when they play combo, good matchup, yes, but the fact that is the deck occasionally loses to itself, especially with a hate card or two in play, making it obviously impossible to be a bye. When i play TES, one of the last decks I worry about is goblins. Game one, pretty easy, and just because you should win one of the two next matches, doesn't mean you will.

@Volt, both decks lose, no matter what breathweapon tells you.

@Everyone The MOST played decks will be decks that players convince themselves has a good match against goblins, when almost every deck playing black has a bad matchup against goblins. Good gobbo players can deal with hate. goblins is definitely a viable grand prix choice. People also say that Combo kills it, well combo won't be more than 10% of the field.

[Happy Gilmore]

@Everyone The MOST played decks will be decks that players convince themselves has a good match against goblins, when almost every deck playing black has a bad matchup against goblins. Good gobbo players can deal with hate. goblins is definitely a viable grand prix choice. People also say that Combo kills it, well combo won't be more than 10% of the field.

Are you serious about that? Even Dead Guy has evolved to play MD Plagues which are not dead against non-goblin decks. I think you need to shoot your intelligence guy; he is giving you bad info. As for Red Death....playing against goblins seems so relaxed for me. I can generally tell from my opening hand if I am going to win or loose that game. It is 50-50 pre board at the very worst.

[Awesomator]

1. Red Death is a good matchup for Goblins Game 1 Not at all 50/50 much more close to a 3-2 favorite, Games 2 and 3 not quite as good. That's where the almost comes in there smart guy.
2. Deadguy is still a good matchup, everybody knows it, and it ran E Plagues since GP Philly.
3. You're a moron and you should read closely, because i was talking about ORIGINAL DECKS that people convince themselves are good against goblins, not thoroughly tested decks with posted results against goblins. You just jumped in the middle of a conversation not knowing what the hell is going on and start saying stupid shit.

[Pyrokinesis]

I would not expect Goblins to beat TES frequently, especially not game one, unless Goblins is on the play and can win on turn three. TES cannot be beaten via Combat Phase before it usually goes off. Even on a three turn clock TES could go off on its second turn. If TES' hand is shaky, Goblins could drop a well-placed Waseland and sink TES's ship. Goblins could also win if TES finishes its combo with Empty the Warrens rather than Tendrils, giving it the opportunity to counter with Goblin Pyromancer. If Warrens was played at just a mid-sized Storm count (Maybe five or six) Goblins could just trump the 1/1's in combat.

So that's three win conditions for Goblins:

a: Das Nuts plus TES being a little slow.
b: Wasting a land which TES needs.
c: Trumping a storm-fuelled weenie swarm.

None of these seem all that likely. B seems to be the most plausible.

In game two Goblins has Pyrostatic Pillar. However, presuming it loses game one and Pillar wins game two, TES will be on the play for game three, see turn two with no real hate in sight, and just melt face.

Even with Pillar down, Goblins could lose to double-Tendrils (unlikely) or the bit of assistance TES will get if Goblins takes any damge from Pyrostatic Pillar (also unlikely).




BTW: My custom title is not a valid counterargument, as true as it is.

[Awesomator]

You also forgot about 4 chalice in the board which can combine with pillar and/or LD.

[Happy Gilmore]

1. Red Death is a good matchup for Goblins Game 1 Not at all 50/50 much more close to a 3-2 favorite, Games 2 and 3 not quite as good. That's where the almost comes in there smart guy.


You need to retest or something, in no way is Goblins a 3-2 favorite. I was being conservative by saying it was 50-50 but in the last 6 times playing agianst Goblins in tournament with Red Death I have won all 6 (I may have been lucky but I am not claiming better than even). In many of those matches I won game one. People who have tested it much more than I have stated that it is aproximately 50-50, and most Red Death players in my meta would say it is even better for Death. If you testing has shown Red Death a 3-2 underdog I would ask what version of each deck you were running, who where the pilots, how many games were played, and what were the SBs.

[Awesomator]

3-2 game one, that comes from a ton of testing, my teammate loves red death. Like I said, games 2 and 3 not so much, and that is why I said Gobs has a good matchup against almost every deck with black in it. 6 Matches is next to no testing. When I test matchups, I test a lot, and play a lot of preboard and postboard matches. There is absolutely no way it is in your favor.

[FrostFirus]

Hello, maybe not the best place to drop a first post...
However, I am intrested in seeing this turn back into a productive conversation again. I have attempted, sometime futilely, to play a wide swath of decks and see what is intresting. I will be lucky enough to see the metagame in Cincinnati, OH the weekend before the actual GP. I hope to see a good representation.

That said, I find that the Aggro-Control decks seem to be the place where I have the most success against a larger quantity of decks. However, I have only one real person who I feel makes a strong opponant; and worse, we have not yet gotten around to making a Goblins deck, which is stupid.

To the meat of my post, what do people believe to be the the top 5 most popular decks by number? What should people expect to see in the first 5 or 6 rounds?

I am setting my goal on a lofty day 2. I know better than to expect top 8 in a format where my expirence is limited, and I am just looking for help in surviving the early rounds where I could maxamize my chances of good matchups. Any help?

[Happy Gilmore]

3-2 game one, that comes from a ton of testing, my teammate loves red death. Like I said, games 2 and 3 not so much, and that is why I said Gobs has a good matchup against almost every deck with black in it. 6 Matches is next to no testing. When I test matchups, I test a lot, and play a lot of preboard and postboard matches. There is absolutely no way it is in your favor.

What is a ton of testing? You have yet to tell me anything regarding the games you have played against your friend. Also, I stated that even though I won the last 6 matches vs. goblins I am not using it as a basis for representing win percentage. If I was, I would have said something like 70-30 game 1. I know this to be incorrect because testing has shown it to be much closer. Multiple testing session have been completed by myself and others for this match up and the conclusion is somewhere around even.

The testing we completed in no way invalidates yours, but I would like some specifics regarding how the games went, the decks, etc. For instance, a deck running 3-4x main deck pyrokinesis is going to show drastically different results than say Rg Goblins.

This brings me to another important point. When testing decks the group I test with alternate who goes first. Hands are kept based on quality and not the match up being played (if testing pre-board). And a ten game set is played. Deep6er got us using this method a while back and it seems to give the most balanced results.



Hello, maybe not the best place to drop a first post...
However, I am intrested in seeing this turn back into a productive conversation again. I have attempted, sometime futilely, to play a wide swath of decks and see what is intresting. I will be lucky enough to see the metagame in Cincinnati, OH the weekend before the actual GP. I hope to see a good representation.

That said, I find that the Aggro-Control decks seem to be the place where I have the most success against a larger quantity of decks. However, I have only one real person who I feel makes a strong opponant; and worse, we have not yet gotten around to making a Goblins deck, which is stupid.

To the meat of my post, what do people believe to be the the top 5 most popular decks by number? What should people expect to see in the first 5 or 6 rounds?

I am setting my goal on a lofty day 2. I know better than to expect top 8 in a format where my expirence is limited, and I am just looking for help in surviving the early rounds where I could maxamize my chances of good matchups. Any help?


Welcome to the source! And yes, once again we are off topic. You say you can't build goblins, but don't forget you can always proxy them for testing purposes.

by percentage (oppinion)

assuming a field of 500+ players

Goblins: 12-15%
Thresh: 5-9%
TES: 2-4%
Survival: 2-3%
Solidarity:3-5%
Countersliver: 2-3%
Loam based board control: 3-6%
Blue based control (MU, Tog, Landstill): 5%
White control (Wombat): 1-2%
Red Death: 2-4%
burn: 1-2%
Enchantress: 1-2%
The rock: 1-2%
Faerie Stompy: 3-5%
Angel Stompy: 3-6%
Dead Guy: 2-4%
other combo: 4-7%
Agro decks (borus, Elves, 3 color agro, etc): 4-6%
Loam agro-control (RG agro loam, Terra Geddon): 2-3%
Affinity: 2-4%

As you can see it is very difficult to predict, the only sure thing is that goblins will be there, past that there is such a diversity you would be lucky to hit two of the same decks. Furthurmore, even with Goblins reperesenting a large percentage of the field there is a chance you might not even face it untill day two if you make it that far. There are so many viable decks it is not even funny. Keep in mind that 3% of the field is 15 people, a number some of these decks have never reached in a major tournament. I was being conservative on the numbers but the percentage could easily be higher for some of them. This list does not take into account new creations being prepd for the GP or random Extended ports that may or may not be able to compete.

[Shriekmaw]

I'm tired of people bashing on my deck (TES) in this thread.

I happen to have a very amazing goblin's match-up and have never lost a round.



One of the main problems with combo decks in general is that they lose to themselves every once in awhile. I can't take a deck to a tournament and end up losing at least one match because the deck is combo and sometimes it just craps out on you.


You obviously haven't tested the Goblin matchup that well because its not as lopsided as you may believe. When goblins runs a full set of wastelands and ports, I think it becomes very difficult for TES to win after the first couple of turns in the game. Maybe you should revisit this matchup and play it against people that know how to play goblins.

[Awesomator]

Force of Will and I test matches a lot, we usually play about 100 games per matchup. I play more if we actually play the decks competitively. I play RG Goblins, and feel it is a mistake to maindeck any more than 1 pyrokinesis (I MD 0). The only real difference between other RG builds and mine is that I run 5 outs to plague (3 grip, 2 patron). We also alternate every game to see who goes first. In testing I won the majority of game ones 3-2 like I said. Game 2's were extremely close to even but I lost a small amount more than I won. I promise you that you aren't playing against talented goblin players, because I would absolutely NEVER lose 6/6 matches against Red Death under any condition. In reality, the matches would be more like 3.5 to 2.5. If you want me can play MWS and get some games going, play like say 25 no board and 25 board and then we can update and post results.

[dontbiteitholmes]

As far as Rogue decks I'd have to say...
AggroLoam
// Lands
1 [SH] Volrath's Stronghold
3 [b] Taiga
2 [ON] Tranquil Thicket
1 [b] Swamp (1)
4 [ON] Wooded Foothills
3 [ON] Bloodstained Mire
3 [ON] Forgotten Cave
2 [TE] Wasteland
1 [OD] Barbarian Ring
1 [US] Forest (2)
1 [US] Mountain (2)
1 [ON] Barren Moor
1 [b] Bayou
1 [b] Badlands

// Creatures
4 [OD] Terravore
2 [OD] Nimble Mongoose
4 [RAV] Dark Confidant
1 [FD] Eternal Witness

// Spells
4 [JU] Burning Wish
3 [EX] Seismic Assault
3 [RAV] Life from the Loam
3 [JU] Cabal Therapy
3 [TO] Devastating Dreams
4 [SH] Mox Diamond
4 [US] Duress

// Sideboard
SB: 1 [RAV] Life from the Loam
SB: 1 [JU] Cabal Therapy
SB: 1 [TO] Devastating Dreams
SB: 1 [PS] Hull Breach
SB: 1 [OD] Haunting Echoes
SB: 1 [CHK] Cranial Extraction
SB: 4 [EX] Sphere of Resistance
SB: 3 [SOK] Pithing Needle
SB: 1 [TO] Nostalgic Dreams
SB: 1 [IA] Pyroclasm

This is a deck I worked on a while back. It def. has some issues, but I feel as though a person worthy of piloting a deck such as this to the Top 8 of a major tourney could give it the tweaking needed to bump it from its current state into a deck to beat. If I was still in the Legacy game like that, this is the deck I would roll with (after tweaks).
http://mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4862

Another deck I feel is wildly underappreciated is Burn. I like this list.
Main--
20 Mountain
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Chain Lightning
4 Incinerate
4 Magma Jet
3 Lava Dart
4 Fireblast
4 Browbeat
4 Flamebreak
3 Price of Progress
2 Cursed Scroll
Side--
1 Price of Progress
4 Pyrostatic Pillar
1 Cursed Scroll
3 Shattering Spree
3 Ensnaring Bridge
3 Red Elemental Blast

Above all it owns Goblins, aggro, anything black, Loam, Control, and anything semi-janky. It can sometimes race combo G1, and plenty of the SB cards are bad news for Thresh/Slivers, Affinity, Solidarity, and such.
Also Enchantress is kinda lookin' good for a Top 8, just my opinion.

[Happy Gilmore]

Force of Will and I test matches a lot, we usually play about 100 games per matchup. I play more if we actually play the decks competitively. I play RG Goblins, and feel it is a mistake to maindeck any more than 1 pyrokinesis (I MD 0). The only real difference between other RG builds and mine is that I run 5 outs to plague (3 grip, 2 patron). We also alternate every game to see who goes first. In testing I won the majority of game ones 3-2 like I said. Game 2's were extremely close to even but I lost a small amount more than I won. I promise you that you aren't playing against talented goblin players, because I would absolutely NEVER lose 6/6 matches against Red Death under any condition. In reality, the matches would be more like 3.5 to 2.5. If you want me can play MWS and get some games going, play like say 25 no board and 25 board and then we can update and post results.

My metagame consists of some of the most consistent players in Legacy. Most of them have placed high (T8) in multiple major tornaments. I appriciate the added information and I will take it into account. All I can say is that our testing has shown it to be apoximately 50-50 pre board over multiple sets.

I gave up on MWS because it was too slow imo, I started using it when it came out but we test so much in our group I have not needed to use it. I would take you up on your offer if I was not so busy with school and testing my deck for the DLD and other GPTs coming up. At the very least I am glad to see that others use the same method and are preparing for the GP.

Edit:

Regarding the post above me:

Please refrain from posting decklists. This is a thread to discuss the GP metagame and not a specific deck.

[MattH]

I can see any of these decks T8ing:

TES
Iggy Pop

Hannifish
Threshold

Goblins
BW

On the margins I can see a Loam deck snaking its way through. And I'll allot one slot for "random deck only one person is playing" (think Tog or Enchantress, somerhing like that) and one for "crazy new concoction" to finish the T8.

I do not see Slivers, GBW, Affinity, or Tide T8ing, but I would not be surprised to see them T16.

I don't know what to make of Red Death. I could put it with Loam as an outside shot of T8ing or it could utterly fail, no idea.

I predict Survival will not T8 unless it is a radicially departure from anything seen, in which case it is covered under "crazy new concoction". RGSA, black splash or no, will not T8 - I just don't feel it has the chops to go nine rounds.

[emidln]

And I'll allot one slot for "random deck only one person is playing"

Hi. Thanks for the vote of confidence. See ya all there. I'll be the masochist playing R/G Prison.

[sammiel]

Hi. Thanks for the vote of confidence. See ya all there. I'll be the masochist playing R/G Prison.

I'll probably be playing W/G, but alot of the changes to my SB were inspired by the various R/G builds.

[Awesomator]

I can see any of these decks T8ing:

TES
Iggy Pop

Hannifish
Threshold

Goblins
BW

On the margins I can see a Loam deck snaking its way through. And I'll allot one slot for "random deck only one person is playing" (think Tog or Enchantress, somerhing like that) and one for "crazy new concoction" to finish the T8

I disagree, with 15% of the field most likely going to goblins, I think two will top 8. 2x combo decks I think solidarity will make it because it will be played a little more than everyone thinks. 2x Thresh decks. There will be a lot of randomness and these are the best decks against random decks. There will be 2x wild cards, yeah probably like loam and maybe enchantress if lonely baritone gets a little lucky. Definitely a couple pros playing some new stuff we haven't seen, or just better builds of decks we have already seen. I hope they break the format wide open.

[BreathWeapon]

Goblins is not good against randomness, it's good against control, aggro-control or other aggro decks, because there is a lot of randomness like; Rifter, Slide, B/g/w, Angel Stompy, Stax, Dragon Stompy etc. that are designed to defeat Goblins, and they're not deluding themselves over their Goblins match up.

If Goblins is 15% of the field, then there is a guarantee that a % of the field is just going to be decks that aim at Goblins.

[Shriekmaw]

Goblins is not good against randomness, it's good against control, aggro-control or other aggro decks, because there is a lot of randomness like; Rifter, Slide, B/g/w, Angel Stompy, Stax, Dragon Stompy etc. that are designed to defeat Goblins, and they're not deluding themselves over their Goblins match up.

If Goblins is 15% of the field, then there is a guarantee that a % of the field is just going to be decks that aim at Goblins.


Vial Goblins is an aggro deck, and it beats the crap out of randomness. Those decks that you have listed, the only true bad matchups for goblins is Rifter, Slide, and Angel Stompy. I don't fear any the other decks because they are not bad matchups at all.

[CalebD]

I hate talking percentages, but I have some predictions that I'm more or less certain of.

1-Counterslivers is gaining in momentum at an astonishing rate. I predict much day 2ness, and some T16 action.

2-Black creature/disruption decks will be around day 1, but there will be very few that make day 2, if any.

3-TES will do excellently day one, but Solidarity will do better than TES on day 2, as there will be less gobblin decks and much more thresh/countersliver. Still, there are always chances of lucky pairings and lucky matches, and thus TES has a better shot at T8 than most.

My loose prediction for T8 is as follows:

2-3 Aggro Control (this includes, but is not restricted to, Countersliver and Thresh)

1 dedicated control deck (probably landstill)

1 gobblin deck.

1-2 survival decks

1-2 Combo decks

[BreathWeapon]

Vial Goblins is an aggro deck, and it beats the crap out of randomness. Those decks that you have listed, the only true bad matchups for goblins is Rifter, Slide, and Angel Stompy. I don't fear any the other decks because they are not bad matchups at all.

Define randomness?

Prison and aggro-prison have positive results against Goblins, 8 Tabernacles and 4 Cataclysm, or Siege Gang Commanders, Empty the Warrens, Arc Sloggers and Quakes etc. tend to ruin them.

[Awesomator]

Angel stompy is no longer a bad matchup since the RG build came in. Killing equipment is the key to beating the deck. I use to play angel stompy frewquently and always crush goblins. Nobody had a way other than disenchant to get rid of jitte/sword. I have absolutely stomped every angel stompy deck I've played in matches. I have also tested the match thoroughly and it is actually a decent matchup.
Also I doubt any survival variants will make the top 8, one might squeeze in to top 16 but no way will one make it any fuirther, top 16 if they are very very lucky.

[Xero]

Prison and aggro-prison have positive results against Goblins
No they don't. Goblins is prisons worst match-up.



Angel stompy is no longer a bad matchup since the RG build came in

Yes it is. Killing a few pieces of equipment does not mean you can beat Angel Stompy, especially lists with Cataclysm. People need to be less wrong.

[Seraphim]

I'm not a huge fan of percentages since their ranges are so variable. In my experience in large tournaments, however, I find that card availability and cost actually does account for a significant portion of deciding factors on which deck to play. Something to note, however, is that fetch lands should not count towards the cost of the deck in most cases.

Its a lot easier to borrow dual lands from friends and locals for a tournament than it is to pick up higher end cards, too. Mox Diamonds will be a large inhibitor for people looking to play loam and stax variants. Availability of cards like sinkhole will probably shy a large number away from pikula and red death. I anticipate many pros playing decks that abuse the most powerful cards: Chalice of the Void, Lion's Eye Diamond, Goblin Lackey, Swords to Plowshares, Dark Ritual, and Force of Will.

The Tier 1 (most played) decks will likely be Goblins and Threshold. Goblins will be the most played archetype at the GP. Threshold will probably pull a somewhat distant 2nd.

Aggro-Control variants like fish, b/w deadguy, b/r sui, and counter slivers will probably fill in the tier 2 with the 3 major combo decks: TES, IGG, and Solidarity.

Tier 3 will be composed of so many random decks that it is probably too numerous to even count. I expect prison and board control strategies to have a strong showing (landstill, stax, truffle shuffle, trainwreck) with truffle shuffle and landstill probably having the most in sheer numbers (but not necessarily the best results).

One very important note: You need to play a deck that can beat both goblins and blue-based aggro-control. It is highly likely that of the 11-15 rounds of the swiss, you will face both of these archetypes at least 2 times each. Dropping 2 matches due to one horrible matchup will probably spell game-over if trying to top 16 / top 8 the tournament.

As far as the top 8 is concerned, my prediction is:

2 Goblins (1 R/g, 1 mono-R)
1 Threshold (4c)
1 Fish (u/b/w or u/w)
1 B/x (pikula or b/r sui)
2 Combo (2 TES or IGG)
1 Other...likely candidates include stax, landstill, fairy stompy, and loam control

[Volt]

Yes it is. Killing a few pieces of equipment does not mean you can beat Angel Stompy, especially lists with Cataclysm. People need to be less wrong.

No no no! Haven't you been paying attention? Goblins beats everything. Except TES, which beats everything.

[Bryant Cook]

No no no! Haven't you been paying attention? Goblins beats everything. Except TES, which beats everything.

Must you take everything out of context? TES goes even with Thresh variants and has a rough match-up with discard, I was just stating it wasn't a landslide victory like awesomator said.

[emidln]

No they don't. Goblins is prisons worst match-up.

No. My worst matchup is by far mono-red burn without fetchlands and with price of progress maindeck. Next on that list is other burn variants. Further up at even is Enchantress and then Survival. Goblins is an extremely good matchup for Prison when Prison is properly designed. While you can't design out bad mulligans, you can severely mitigate them with redundancy and other design techniques to give you a chance even when luck screws you.

As far as the top8, I imagine we'll see something like this:

1-2 Tendrils Combo
0-2 Stax/Confinement/Enchantress/metagame decks (i.e. things that prey on Goblins, Thresh, and Combo being most of the field)
1-3 Fast Aggro (Affinity, Goblins, Zoo)
1-3 Aggro Control (Thresh, Fish, Deadguy, Faerie Stompy, Aggro Loam)
0-2 Non-prison Control (Landstill, Truffle Shuffle, etc)

I don't think Solidarity will end up making it into top8, and I don't see survival making it into top8 as well. I think that decks like Tendrils, Affinity, Goblins, and Faerie Stompy will end up with more placings in the top32 day 2 than other decks due to fatigue and the auto-win factor where the decks simply go ballistic. With decks like Fish, Stax, Confinement, Landstill, and Deadguy, the longer games can give more opportunities for simple misplays which tend to fatally wound control decks.

[MattH]

I disagree, with 15% of the field most likely going to goblins, I think two will top 8.
I didn't say that is the specific T8 I expect, just the decks I can foresee making T8. You could rephrase this as, "The T8 will be a subset of this list."

I can see where I might have given a different impression though.

[Silverdragon]

I too think Solidarity will not make it into Top8 however I don't think that fatigue or some "auto-win factor" will help certain decks. After all it's a Grand Prix and we're talking about pro players, the kind of people that can win Pro Tours with Psychatog, Gifts Ungiven or most recently Mystical Teachings.

[emidln]

I too think Solidarity will not make it into Top8 however I don't think that fatigue or some "auto-win factor" will help certain decks. After all it's a Grand Prix and we're talking about pro players, the kind of people that can win Pro Tours with Psychatog, Gifts Ungiven or most recently Mystical Teachings.

When you're playing Goblins no amount of skill in the world will fix an opponent opening swamp, dark rit, grim tutor for a combo piece turn 1 into a turn 2 kill with infernal tutor and 2x led. That's what I mean by the auto-win factor. Some decks have hands that simply don't lose to particular archetypes.

[BreathWeapon]

I too think Solidarity will not make it into Top8 however I don't think that fatigue or some "auto-win factor" will help certain decks. After all it's a Grand Prix and we're talking about pro players, the kind of people that can win Pro Tours with Psychatog, Gifts Ungiven or most recently Mystical Teachings.

Even the best are fair game for exhaustion, using a deck such as Belcher is going to let people get their game, or perhaps match, over in short order and then allow him to relax in between rounds.

It doesn't matter how good you think you are, you will make mistakes when you are tired.

[Nihil Credo]

It doesn't matter how good you think you are, you will make mistakes when you are tired.
Frank Karsten just got 10th place at a Pro Tour while vomiting through all of Day 2. :wink:

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

There might be something to that. I know I'd be alarmed and worried (and probably a little nauseated) if my opponent was vomiting into a bucket in between plays.

[Happy Gilmore]

I went through the top 128 decks from lille last night to see if there were any new decks I might have missed.

Dear God.....Thres is somewhere around 35-45% of the field! I mean, even higher than goblins. Maybe my estimation of 7% for thresh is a little low. If there is even close to that number at Columbus we are going to see a very interesting set of decks for day two.

Train Wreck in T8 anyone?

[Awesomator]

I doubt any of our estimations are wrong. They have a completely different meta than us. Still that's a little ridiculous that the 35-45% of the field is Thresh. If that were the case i would go there and play gobbos or loam.

[Nightmare]

Don't forget that Lille was in the wake of Philly, where 2 thresh decks made top 8.

[Seraphim]

I think the numbers for Lillle were something to the effect of:
Thresh: 35%
Gobs: 30%
Other: 35%

not really much room for other decks after looking at those numbers :frown:

I anticipate that goblins will supplant thresh as the #1 deck, but thresh will still be a strong #2.

[Awesomator]

Don't forget that Lille was in the wake of Philly, where 2 thresh decks made top 8.

Good call, should have seen it coming, but definitely didn't expect anywhere near that percentage. Whoever was playing loam is going to have an excellent record.

[SpatulaOfTheAges]

Don't forget that Lille was in the wake of Philly, where 2 thresh decks made top 8.

3.

[emidln]

I hope I'm so lucky as to see Thresh and Goblins make up 65% of the field. Add in Fish, Counterslivers and maybe 10% combo and there won't be a whole lot of randomness left to randomly blow me out.

[Bane of the Living]

At Philly I went the full 8 rounds without playing against a single goblin or thresh deck. Your playing legacy dont bother trying to metagame, honestly.

[FrostFirus]

@Bane: If there is no use in trying to play the metagame; obviously, it is would be in ones best intrest to just play the best deck in the format. Do you think that there is a best deck? If so, would you please share your insight with us.

I would be happy to hear would others would have to say on the above as well.

[dontbiteitholmes]

I'm gonna go ahead and say Slivers seems like a better metagame deck then Thresh because of its stronger game 1 against Goblins and Thresh, its good game against combo, its resistance to hate, and its theoretical better day 2 since its worst matchup is Loam decks which may have a hard time fighting through all the combo day 1 (and Burn with MD Prices which will probably be a 1-3 of deck). On a related not I also think Loam Aggro will be a good deck for the meta since it also owns pretty much anything aggro or aggro-control which should be a good 70% of the field, also it has good game against "control". Of course I judge combo to be the weakest archeotype since it has to race Goblins and go off in spite of aggro-control, as well as race other combo.

[Clark Kant]

Slivers can get hit by goblins splash damage. Mainly Infest and Engineered Plague.

Plus it loses Meddling Mage, which was always a huge bomb versus combo.

[Volt]

Slivers can get hit by goblins splash damage. Mainly Infest and Engineered Plague.

Plus it loses Meddling Mage, which was always a huge bomb versus combo.


Dedicated black control decks are very bad for CounterSliver, but Infest and E-Plague on their own aren't a big deal. CounterSliver runs 12 pump slivers and countermagic. Harmonic Sliver out of the sideboard deals with Plagues. Meddling Mage comes in from the sideboard, as well. Most Thresh decks don't maindeck Mages, so there's really no difference there.

[kicks_422]

I second that. Plagues are worthless when they shrink Slivers into *only* 3/4's.

Sure, Mage is a huge bomb against combo. But so is 10-12 countermagic with a quicker clock than Thresh, with Mages out of the board.

[BreathWeapon]

No point in SBing Meddling Mages, just SB Null Rod, bring in a better card against combo and get an Affinity hoser to boot.

[xsockmonkeyx]

Slivers can get hit by goblins splash damage. Mainly Infest and Engineered Plague.

E. Plague is negated by 12 maindeck cards and trumped by 3 SB. Infest at 3 mana is slow enough to be in Counterspell range. Im not saying they do nothing Im just saying thy are not as effecting as they are against their intended target, goblins.


Plus it loses Meddling Mage, which was always a huge bomb versus combo.

There are 4 in the sideboard.


No point in SBing Meddling Mages....

I strongly disagree.

[CalebD]

No point in SBing Meddling Mages, just SB Null Rod, bring in a better card against combo and get an Affinity hoser to boot.

Because Null Rod > Solidarity.

[dontbiteitholmes]

Dedicated black control decks are very bad for CounterSliver, but Infest and E-Plague on their own aren't a big deal. CounterSliver runs 12 pump slivers and countermagic. Harmonic Sliver out of the sideboard deals with Plagues. Meddling Mage comes in from the sideboard, as well. Most Thresh decks don't maindeck Mages, so there's really no difference there.

E-Plague is so useless against Slivers I don't even think I would bring them in unless I had a full playset and planned on getting atleast 2 out. Unless you have 2 the only thing you are killing is a lone Winged Sliver.

[Maverick676]

It used to be that 2 plagues on the board with no slivers out was GG for slivers, but now with harmonic we have an out to even that, and a single plague does virtualy nothing.

Also meddling mage is so much better than null rod against combo, I find it comical that anyone would even suggest otherwise (when was the last time solidarity, IGG or TES scooped to null rod?)

[Zach Tartell]

I'm honestly concerned with countersliver. Well, to be fair, worried about decks with fliers. Like faerie stompy. I dropped a moat for a ghostly prison in my enchantress build. We'll see hwo it goes.

[BreathWeapon]

Because Null Rod > Solidarity.

First, High Tide isn't combo it's combo control, no deck that can't win before turn four should be considered combo, and second, you can't just beat that deck with Force of Will, Daze, Stifle and a hoard of creatures?

If that's the case just use Chalice of the Void instead. Meddling Mage is a terrible SB card to bring in against combo over the alternatives available.

[Awesomator]

the deck can win before turn 4, just not consistantly. Null rod is better against TES, Mage is better vs solidarity, Mage vs belcher. With all of the combo decks out including the ones not mentioned, overall I would definitely go with Mage over Null Rod easy choice. For some combo decks, getting rid of a creature is much harder than getting rid of an artifact. Mage is also better against a higher range of decks.

[BreathWeapon]

the deck can win before turn 4, just not consistantly. Null rod is better against TES, Mage is better vs solidarity, Mage vs belcher. With all of the combo decks out including the ones not mentioned, overall I would definitely go with Mage over Null Rod easy choice. For some combo decks, getting rid of a creature is much harder than getting rid of an artifact. Mage is also better against a higher range of decks.

Meddling Mage is not better than Null Rod or Chalice of the Void against Belcher, most decks don't even see turn 2 against Belcher let alone name the right win condition against it.

Meddling Mage is a bad SB card against combo with artifact acceleration, Chalice of the Void covers High Tide and most other combo decks I can think of that aren't awful, and Null Rod and Chalice of the Void both get the advantage of being GG against Affinity or Threshold respectively.

Trust me, I know combo from both sides of the board well enough to distinguish between what hate cards work and what hate cards aren't as good as people think they are. Besides, it's simple cost benefit analysis, Null Rod and Chalice of the Void are more powerful than Meddling Mage against combo and affect non-Combo match ups, just look at the Venn Diagram and judge for yourself.

Removing it isn't an issue, TES and Belcher have to decid between Swarms and Sprees since aggro-control still uses the stack, so splitting their answers is doing you a favor.

[Awesomator]

whoa nobody mentioned chalice, the argument was Null Rod or Mage. Mage is better than Null Rod because it helps unfavorable matchups as well. Null Rod is GG against affinity, Affinity isn't going to be a big % of the field. You have to keep your good matchups good and make your bad matchups better. Chalice is obv good against combo, but no one was talking about Chalice. Every draw spell in meathooks and plateds are 1cc. Meathooks already has a decent combo match. Chalice isn't necessary, Mage is.

[BreathWeapon]

whoa nobody mentioned chalice, the argument was Null Rod or Mage. Mage is better than Null Rod because it helps unfavorable matchups as well. Null Rod is GG against affinity, Affinity isn't going to be a big % of the field. You have to keep your good matchups good and make your bad matchups better. Chalice is obv good against combo, but no one was talking about Chalice. Every draw spell in meathooks and plateds are 1cc. Meathooks already has a decent combo match. Chalice isn't necessary, Mage is.

Re-read the response to CalebD,

None of that made sense, if Slivers has a good combo match up, then what's the reason to use Meddling Mage in the first place, and if Meddling Mage is the reason that Slivers has a good match up, then replacing it with Chalice of the Void is going to do the same, or more, to that match up and just crush other random decks.

There's going to be a lot of Aggro-Loam, Affinity and Scepter at the GPT, you really need to stop and consider what the Extended players are going to be porting, because they're going to be a big influence there.

[Awesomator]

LOL READ READ READ. That's your problem you never read. Meddling Mage is much better against other decks in general. You want a versatile sideboard. There is going to be no scepter chant.. are you insane? Affinity will barely be around. Aggro-Loam is going to be around even less than affinity. That's like me saying play Mage because enchantress and aluren are going to be everywhere. They're going to be played, but they will be an extremely small part of the field, and that's no reason to board it.

[BreathWeapon]

I read it,

Name one match up where Meddling Mage is better than Chalice of the Void where the deck would bother to SB in either one of them; Chalice of the Void is about as good against the field as it gets.

Extended people are coming to the GP, and Extended people are bringing what's familiar with them, it's as simple as that. Scepter isn't even that ridiculous, it's the non-Landstill option for Control, and it doesn't have a terrible match up in the format for the most part.

[xsockmonkeyx]

whoa nobody mentioned chalice, the argument was Null Rod or Mage.

Im mentioning it now. Play Chalice in the sideboard.

[Awesomator]

No Chalice isn't, you cant chalice for one with the deck against non combo decks! You lose stp, all of your card draw, and plated sliver. Scepter chant is terrible and will 0-2 drop. I would board mage in where I wouldn't board chalice against: any kind of heavy control, FS, Aluren, enchantress, survival, loam based decks, landstill, even your precious scepter chant deck, well you would kick the shit out of yourself with chalice against solidarity but you would still have to play it, Pox decks, Deadguy, and Wombat just to name a few. Why don't you chalice for 1 genious and cut off 16 cards, or maybe you chalice for 2 and cut off the rest of your deck, why not? Mayyyybe you should just stick with Mage.

[xsockmonkeyx]

No Chalice isn't, you cant chalice for one with the deck against non combo decks! You lose stp, all of your card draw, and plated sliver. Scepter chant is terrible and will 0-2 drop. I would board mage in where I wouldn't board chalice against: any kind of heavy control, FS, Aluren, enchantress, survival, loam based decks, landstill, even your precious scepter chant deck, well you would kick the shit out of yourself with chalice against solidarity but you would still have to play it, Pox decks, Deadguy, and Wombat just to name a few. Why don't you chalice for 1 genious and cut off 16 cards, or maybe you chalice for 2 and cut off the rest of your deck, why not? Mayyyybe you should just stick with Mage.

I disagree. And you can play both.

[Volt]

Ah, progress! This thread has developed from Awesomator arguing with people about Goblins and TES into Awesomator arguing with people about CounterSliver.

To be honest, I have often been severely tempted to play Null Rods, simply because they tend to put the whammy on certain decks, whereas Meddling Mage is often just a half-measure. Mage does come in handy in more situations, though.

To clarify things a bit, CounterSliver has a so-so matchup against storm combo decks before sideboarding. It's about 50/50, or 45/55, or something like that. It needs help from the sideboard to make the matchup good.

I've been experimenting with Spell Snare as a sideboard option lately. Not so much because I think Spell Snare is the nutz against combo, but because it's very useful in some of the other matchups, such as Thresh, Deadguy, and the mirror match (!). It's not horrible against combo, though. It hits all of TES's tutors, as well as Reset, Remand, Impulse in Solidarity.

Anyway, I think we're getting off topic here. This conversation probably belongs in the MeatHooks thread.

[Awesomator]

ok please explain then.

[xsockmonkeyx]

This sums up how I feel about the matter. Plus I dont have to write a lengthy post. :smile:


From Todays Article (http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/article/14074.html)


If you are going to the Grand Prix, run Chalice of the Void.

The reason is simple; it is a colorless way to shut down entire decks. Legacy has several decks that bottleneck at relatively low mana costs. Threshold and High Tide both convulse to Chalice at 1, and decks based on Life From The Loam run into real problems when it hits at 2. Not to mention, Chalice stops Storm combo pretty easily for zero mana.

The problem comes up that Chalice is symmetrical. However, I don't think this is a serious issue; one does not need to rebuild their deck to fit it in pre- or post-board. Unless you are running one of those decks that does die to Chalice at 0 or 1, Chalice will be your best friend. In Vintage, Stax ran, and still runs, Chalice, even though it often has conflicting cards with what the deck aims to set Chalices at. For example, it still runs Moxes, even though Stax often sets Chalice for 0. Cards on the board that seriously shut down an opposing strategy are always going to be more valuable than the theoretical screw from drawing a card that might conflict with the played Chalice. In short, even if you have to 6-for-1 yourself, you're probably 22-for-1-ing your opponent. Not bad.

[Awesomator]

That definitely doesn't apply to Meathooks. You can't drop for two against loam because you will most likely lose, Chalice for one hurts you badly, obviously not quite as badly as it hurts them, solidarity you kick the shit out of your deck but you still would have to play it. Running BOTH would be fine, but running Chalice over Mage, which was the argument, is stupid, because the deck hurts itself badly with chalice.

I play goblins and run chalice and have no problem chalicing for 1, I lose vial, lackey, and fanatic which I want to play turn 1 anyway. You lose more important cards playing meathooks. It is still ok to run chalice, but it just isn't as good as mage overall.

[Happy Gilmore]

Chalice at 1 does not stop the majority of CounterSliver's creatures or ANY of its Counterspells. Your best bet against them is resolving a Chalice at two, then they probably lose. The matchup between Countersliver and Goblins is no joke. The fact that Countersliver has a strong match against Goblins, is 50-50 with Thresh, and about the same against storm combo makes it a solid contender in the metagame. Lol, just pray to God your opponent does not resolve a Dystopia. :cry:

[xsockmonkeyx]

Chalice at 1 does not stop the majority of CounterSliver's creatures or ANY of its Counterspells. Your best bet against them is resolving a Chalice at two, then they probably lose.

Probably. However Harmonic Sliver conveniently costs 3.

[Happy Gilmore]

Probably. However Harmonic Sliver conveniently costs 3.

Yep, and he is good against Aether Vial as well. :wink:

[CalebD]

First, High Tide isn't combo it's combo control, no deck that can't win before turn four should be considered combo,.

Solidarity can win on turn 3. It's just that it only goes for it when it really has to, as then it has a higher chance of fizzling.

Solidarity isn't trying to control the board (notice the COMPLETE LACK OF REMOVAL), it's trying to stall the opponent and protect its combo. That's not a control game, that's a combo game. Just because a deck runs 4x Remand and 4x FoW doesn't mean you can slap control on the end of its title.


and second, you can't just beat that deck with Force of Will, Daze, Stifle and a hoard of creatures?

If that's the case just use Chalice of the Void instead. Meddling Mage is a terrible SB card to bring in against combo over the alternatives available.

Permission is the reason to run Solidarity over other combo decks. No aggro control deck should rely on permission alone to deal with solidarity.

Some Solidarity lists have added red to their manabase for the sole purpose of having uncounterable methods of getting rid of Meddling Mage. That's a pretty good indicator of how good Mage is. Also, Mage isn't even relegated to anti-combo use. It's also good against engine decks like Survival and can name control elements (humility/disk/wrath/solitary confinement) against the more dedicated control decks.

Chalice of the Void is a solid SB choice for most decks (GOBBLINS, cough cough) But in Thresh/Slivers you just shut down too much of your deck for too weak of a lock.

[kicks_422]

Probably the best reason to run Mages in the SB over Chalice is that Mage can name sweepers, which is arguably the best way to win against MeatHooks. Even if Chalice is a better tool against combo than Mage, the versatility of Mage just shines in the bad match-ups (board control decks), whereas Chalice helps most against 50/50 match-ups (combo).

And not just in MeatHooks. For any deck that can run Chalices AND Mages in the SB, Mage is most of the time a better choice. At the GP, nobody could predict what will be there and what won't, so versatility = tech.

[Seraphim]

This thread should not have devolved into whats good in sliver's sideboard...I'm probably going to get slapped by the mods for this message, but I really think that critical thought can and should be applied to the metagame for the GP.

No matter what deck you plan on playing at the GP, knowing what to expect to face is very critical to sideboarding (at the least).

The past few GPs have had a very high turnout of the 2-3 decks to beat. I think it is fairly obvious what the purpose behind this is, I am just unsure as to whether or not the trend will continue. Threshold is not a strong enough deck so that it can withstand boat-loads of hate. There has been no deck that outright takes threshold's place in the decks-to-beat section, though. Threshold, Fish, and Counter-Slivers are all sort of filling the aggro-control category together, with threshold still being the most popular for various reasons.

I think that goblins will still come out in force as the deck to beat at the GP. Combo is never a huge part of the metagame, but I think that there will be a reasonably large amount of combo running around the top tables and making day 2 if for no other reason than they will feast upon the large number of goblins decks.

If people have evidence to support why some decks will show in higher numbers than others, I (and hopefully the rest of the community here) would appreciate it.

[BreathWeapon]

Faerie Stompy and now AfFOWnity are about as close to replacing Threshold in the aggro-control slot as it gets.

[Seraphim]

Not only is that laughable, its flat out wrong.

It would be a much better argument that threshold is being supplanted by the rise of tier 2 decks, aka - b/w deadguy, red death, fish, affinity, zoo, slivers, etc...

Fairy Stompy will not show in very large numbers due to the restrictive nature of Sea Drakes coupled with its inability to get consistent hands. Affinity may very well show, but I highly doubt that more than 2 will make day 2.

[Happy Gilmore]

This thread should not have devolved into whats good in sliver's sideboard...I'm probably going to get slapped by the mods for this message, but I really think that critical thought can and should be applied to the metagame for the GP.

No matter what deck you plan on playing at the GP, knowing what to expect to face is very critical to sideboarding (at the least).

The past few GPs have had a very high turnout of the 2-3 decks to beat. I think it is fairly obvious what the purpose behind this is, I am just unsure as to whether or not the trend will continue. Threshold is not a strong enough deck so that it can withstand boat-loads of hate. There has been no deck that outright takes threshold's place in the decks-to-beat section, though. Threshold, Fish, and Counter-Slivers are all sort of filling the aggro-control category together, with threshold still being the most popular for various reasons.

I think that goblins will still come out in force as the deck to beat at the GP. Combo is never a huge part of the metagame, but I think that there will be a reasonably large amount of combo running around the top tables and making day 2 if for no other reason than they will feast upon the large number of goblins decks.

If people have evidence to support why some decks will show in higher numbers than others, I (and hopefully the rest of the community here) would appreciate it.

Very well said.

It is also important to note that at GP: Philly and Lille there were fewer well developed decks available to play.

TES
CounterSliver
Red Death
Deadguy
Iggy Pop
Faerie Stompy
Solidarity (to some extent)
Terra Geddon (loam agro decks in general)

are all competitive decks that were not mainstream enough at the time to be well represented. I think that Columbus will see a much much more diverse day two than the previous two legacy GPs.

[BreathWeapon]

Not only is that laughable, its flat out wrong.

It would be a much better argument that threshold is being supplanted by the rise of tier 2 decks, aka - b/w deadguy, red death, fish, affinity, zoo, slivers, etc...

Fairy Stompy will not show in very large numbers due to the restrictive nature of Sea Drakes coupled with its inability to get consistent hands. Affinity may very well show, but I highly doubt that more than 2 will make day 2.

Under what premise is it laughable and wrong?

Regardless of the numbers, Faerie Stompy and AfFOWnity are favorable in the aggro-control mirror, favorable in the combo match up, just as unfavorable against the Goblins match up, just as unfavorable against the Control match up, more favorable in the non-Goblins aggro match up and neither of them lose to Chalice of the Void at one or 8 Moons, which is going to be a basic rule of thumb for considering decks in the future.

I agree that Threshold is going to be a large portion of the field at the GP because Future Sight isn't legal and Magus of the Moon isn't going to be in all decks with Red, but while Faerie Stompy is expensive, AfFOWnity is cheap, and neither fold to the same cards as Threshold.

If you think about, it really does make sense.

[emidln]

Under what premise is it laughable and wrong?

Regardless of the numbers, Faerie Stompy and AfFOWnity are favorable in the aggro-control mirror, favorable in the combo match up, just as unfavorable against the Goblins match up, just as unfavorable against the Control match up, more favorable in the non-Goblins aggro match up and neither of them lose to Chalice of the Void at one or 8 Moons, which is going to be a basic rule of thumb for considering decks in the future.

I agree that Threshold is going to be a large portion of the field at the GP because Future Sight isn't legal and Magus of the Moon isn't going to be in all decks with Red, but while Faerie Stompy is expensive, AfFOWnity is cheap, and neither fold to the same cards as Threshold.

You mean like Trinisphere, Wasteland, Crucible of the Void, Boil, Ensnaring Bridge, Goblin Welder and Smokestack? From the point of view of Stax, nothing changes, except Faerie Stompy and AfFOWnity can't really get in the game because they can't defend themselves with appropriate amounts of countermagic. Threshold folds to threat-heavy decks like Truffle Shuffle (lots of removal as threats) and Stax (lots of Removal and a third of the deck that wins if it resolves). It seems that Faerie Stompy and AfFOWnity still don't fix the problem against Stax and board control.

What's worse is that Faerie Stompy and AfFOWnity are actually more vulnerable to Rg Goblins, which is going to be highly played. Packing three to four 2/1s that nuke things when they hit play with tutors and fact or fictions to find them seems really good against decks that require artifacts to win. Threshold doesn't suffer from this problem, they just have to deal with the horde and mana disruption, not the horde, mana disruption, and permanent disruption (they only way AfFOWnity or Faerie Stompy beats goblins is with equipment, which Rg can easily deny to them). Moreover, Threshold isn't nearly as prone to the mulligans that seem to plague Faerie Stompy pilots.

[Seraphim]

Not to toot my own horn or anything, but you made my point for me Breathweapon. The entire goal of this thread is to determine what will show up and in how large of numbers. Affinity and Fairy Stompy will not be there in near the same amount (even if you put the two together) as Threshold. While I believe Thresh will fall in popularity, nothing is going to totally uproot it as the #1 or #2 deck to beat. Unless I have a total misunderstanding of professional events, Goblins will be #1; Thresh will still be #2, but a much more distant #2 than it was in the previous GPs.

And in an attempt to drive my point home, I DON'T CARE if deck X, Y, and Z beat threshold if they will not be at the tournament in large numbers because the odds are more likely that either the source of information has provided bad information or that the deck will not gain enough popularity for the people reading this forum to care becuase they won't play against it!


So my question still remains...what will show up (aka what should be prepared for) at the GP other than the 1.5 Decks-to-Beat in large enough numbers to warrent maindeck / sideboard hate.

Blue / x aggro-control could probably be lumped together in the next highest categories of decks after goblins. Fish and counter-slivers both play the same roles as Threshold in almost all of the same matches, but with slightly different vulnerabilities and strengths. But will those decks be as prevalent as Threshold? I doubt it.

Anyways, just my 2 cents.

[CalebD]

You mean like Trinisphere, Wasteland, Crucible of the Void, Boil, Ensnaring Bridge, Goblin Welder and Smokestack?.

Ok, from the FS side of things you've listed very few relevant cards here. Trinisphere (nearly everything costs 3!), Wasteland (Trinket mage will be fetching additional mana against stax, be it seats or moxen), Welder doesn't do much, especially if FS gets to equip ONE of it's 7 equipment to ANY of it's creatures and swings, which stax can have some trouble preventing. Crucible/Smokestack are nice, but again if FS has a threat they don't matter that much, as trinket mage gives them extra permanents, and TFK gives them reach and card advantage to stay alive a very long time under smokestack. Boil, most of the time, is a 4cc LD spell that might get 2-3 lands if you're lucky.

Ensnaring Bridge is red stax's only hope, and even then FS has a few outs. I've started boarding 2 Rushing River for this card and the mirror/affinity, where it plays a role as a combat trick (bouncing equipment mid-combat is tech).

Stax Rapes Affownity though... that's why I'm not playing Affownity...



What's worse is that Faerie Stompy and AfFOWnity are actually more vulnerable to Rg Goblins, which is going to be highly played. Packing three to four 2/1s that nuke things when they hit play with tutors and fact or fictions to find them seems really good against decks that require artifacts to win. Threshold doesn't suffer from this problem, they just have to deal with the horde and mana disruption, not the horde, mana disruption, and permanent disruption (they only way AfFOWnity or Faerie Stompy beats goblins is with equipment, which Rg can easily deny to them). Moreover, Threshold isn't nearly as prone to the mulligans that seem to plague Faerie Stompy pilots.

Well put, although Thresh does suffer its own hate, so it's really what you fear/prefer most.

FS beats the crap out of combo much better than thresh does, and with all the hype about combo it will probably show up in some numbers.



Regardless of the numbers, Faerie Stompy and AfFOWnity are favorable in the aggro-control mirror, favorable in the combo match up, just as unfavorable against the Goblins match up, just as unfavorable against the Control match up.

No, no, god no. Don't lump the two decks together for any of those matchups.

FS has 4 trinket mages, meaning an entire 4 extra chalices. That means it's better against aggro-control and better against combo.

Next, FS has a decent game one against gobblins. Turn one fatty/pro red creature, turn two equipment-equip-swing is hard to come back from, even if they do manage to tutor up an artifact removal. You've still got a fatty, you've still gotten a use out of the equipment, and there's nothing saying you wont draw one of the other equipment in the deck and keep going to town. I'm not saying FS's gobblins matchup is amazing or anything, but it isn't nearly as bad as Affownity's.

And against control, FS doesn't have to over-commit during the first few turns of the game to apply pressure. FS needs 1-2 creatures with one peice of equipment to put the opponent on a very quick clock. The affinity mechanic almost necessitates over-committing, which will run into deed/disk/wrath/etc.

That being said Affownity isn't a bad deck, but to me it seems much worse than FS for the reasons listed above.


EDIT:
Seraphim: it makes sense to lump the U/x aggro control decks together for metagame considerations with deckchoices, but not when it comes to the SB. Thresh, Slivers, and Fish all run different mana curves with very different weaknesses. This means that while gobblins could board in chalice/crypt against thresh, they should board in neither of those things against slivers. To properly sb people are going to have to do a lot more testing than they would think. When it comes to close calls like what card is better against fish/sliver/thresh they're going to have to test the crap out of their matchups with those decks, and sb accordingly.

[BreathWeapon]

@CalebD

No one is arguing that FS and AfFOWnity are identical, and I agree that FS has a stronger game against Goblins, but FS isn't that much stronger, or isn't stronger against Aggro-Control, Control and Combo, because AfFOWnity is faster, more threat dense, less reliant on equipment and can board in Sphere of Resistance.

@Emidln

As I said, the decks are about the same against control or board control, and I can't view the metagame thru' other people's rogue decks.

@Seraphim

I wasn't disagreeing to begin with, rather, I was stating that both of these decks are going to show up, AfFOWnity in greater numbers because it's cheaper and it ports Affinity for Extended players, and along with all of the other Tomb and City based decks, it represents a distinct set of decks to consider SB options against.

As far as the non-Tier 1 decks to be concerned with, I'd spend a lot of time considering what Extended people are going to port, Raffinity, Aggro-Loam, No Stick and Boros are all relatively dangerous.

[Seraphim]

While I do agree that the "hosers" for those decks are not usually one and the same, their mana curves are in fact almost identical.

All 3 of the u/x aggro-control decks have between 16-20 spells at 1cc, 12-16 spells at 2cc, and <15 spells over 2. To say that their mana curves are vastly different is not only a mistake, it could be fatal when trying to address the decks.

All 3 decks use 8 cantrips (or more). All 3 use 4 swords to plowshares (or lightning bolt if red thresh). All 3 have 4 one-drop creatuers.

All 3 have atleast 8 creatures at 2-drop (fish and slivers have even more, though). All 3 run daze as a 3-4 of and often 1-2 counterspells / equipment.

The biggest difference between the 3 decks is just 1 weakness for each one: Slivers requires multiple creatures out to be effecient. Fish has small reliance on either the graveyard or jitte. Threshold requires 7 cards in the graveyard to be effecient / effective. It is almost a safe bet to assume that to prepare for one deck is to prepare for all 3 decks as long as you aren't targetting that one weakness.

(note - all 3 decks have effecient ways to handle spot removal: Fish - Mother of Runes, Thresh - Nimble Mongoose, Slivers - Crystalin Sliver).

All 3 decks share 2 weaknesses (though the potency of exploiting these is different with every deck), though: multi-color blue based land base and a vulnerability to mass removal.

[Silverdragon]

For any deck that can run Chalices AND Mages in the SB, Mage is most of the time a better choice. At the GP, nobody could predict what will be there and what won't, so versatility = tech.

How about raw power = tech at an event where "nobody could predict what will be there"? Suppose your opponent just played an Island/Fetchland into Brainstorm go, what to name with Mage? Chalice for 1 on turn 1/2 is almost always gamewarping whereas without good scouting you a) have to wait with your Mage until you are sure what your opponent is playing or b) might totally miss (naming Tide when he plays Threshold etc). Without a way to see your opponents hands it is also possible that you miss with Mage even if you know the archetype (naming Swords when he doesn't draw one the whole game).
I agree with hi-val, run Chalice of the Void.

[Whit3 Ghost]

Ok, from the FS side of things you've listed very few relevant cards here. Trinisphere (nearly everything costs 3!), Wasteland (Trinket mage will be fetching additional mana against stax, be it seats or moxen), Welder doesn't do much, especially if FS gets to equip ONE of it's 7 equipment to ANY of it's creatures and swings, which stax can have some trouble preventing. Crucible/Smokestack are nice, but again if FS has a threat they don't matter that much, as trinket mage gives them extra permanents, and TFK gives them reach and card advantage to stay alive a very long time under smokestack. Boil, most of the time, is a 4cc LD spell that might get 2-3 lands if you're lucky.

Ensnaring Bridge is red stax's only hope, and even then FS has a few outs. I've started boarding 2 Rushing River for this card and the mirror/affinity, where it plays a role as a combat trick (bouncing equipment mid-combat is tech).

No, if you discard a lesser equipment/Chalice to Thirst and I have a Welder in play, you are in trouble.

Red stax runs 2-4(depending on how many quakes you own) sweepers that can kill everything on your board. If it's old school Towah, then you also have to deal with postboard Razormane Masticores and/or Krosan Grips.

AEther Flash can be a pain in the ass with active Bring on the board.

Boil kills your Blue mana, which you need to cast the threats in your deck.

Trinisphere shuts down FOW, which is incredibly important when a stax player is about to resolve Bridge.

Also, It's not that hard to Chalice @ 3 to shut down your larger threats in the lategame.

[BreathWeapon]

While I do agree that the "hosers" for those decks are not usually one and the same, their mana curves are in fact almost identical.

All 3 of the u/x aggro-control decks have between 16-20 spells at 1cc, 12-16 spells at 2cc, and <15 spells over 2. To say that their mana curves are vastly different is not only a mistake, it could be fatal when trying to address the decks.

All 3 decks use 8 cantrips (or more). All 3 use 4 swords to plowshares (or lightning bolt if red thresh). All 3 have 4 one-drop creatuers.

All 3 have atleast 8 creatures at 2-drop (fish and slivers have even more, though). All 3 run daze as a 3-4 of and often 1-2 counterspells / equipment.

The biggest difference between the 3 decks is just 1 weakness for each one: Slivers requires multiple creatures out to be effecient. Fish has small reliance on either the graveyard or jitte. Threshold requires 7 cards in the graveyard to be effecient / effective. It is almost a safe bet to assume that to prepare for one deck is to prepare for all 3 decks as long as you aren't targetting that one weakness.

(note - all 3 decks have effecient ways to handle spot removal: Fish - Mother of Runes, Thresh - Nimble Mongoose, Slivers - Crystalin Sliver).

All 3 decks share 2 weaknesses (though the potency of exploiting these is different with every deck), though: multi-color blue based land base and a vulnerability to mass removal.

I meant all of the Tomb/City based builds use a specific set of cards, Trinisphere, Chalice of the Void, Chrome Mox, Sphere of Resistance, Sword of Fire and Ice, Umezawa's Jitte, Cranial Plating etc. along with other artifacts that make cards like Shattering Spree, Ancient Grudge, Null Rod and Serenity sound choices in the SB.

[kicks_422]

How about raw power = tech at an event where "nobody could predict what will be there"? Suppose your opponent just played an Island/Fetchland into Brainstorm go, what to name with Mage? Chalice for 1 on turn 1/2 is almost always gamewarping whereas without good scouting you a) have to wait with your Mage until you are sure what your opponent is playing or b) might totally miss (naming Tide when he plays Threshold etc). Without a way to see your opponents hands it is also possible that you miss with Mage even if you know the archetype (naming Swords when he doesn't draw one the whole game).
I agree with hi-val, run Chalice of the Void.

I believe I mentioned Chalice or Mage coming in from the SB. If these two cards were competing for a spot in the MD, I prefer Chalice over Mage because of the randomness that one would face.

[frogboy]

How about raw power = tech at an event where "nobody could predict what will be there"? Suppose your opponent just played an Island/Fetchland into Brainstorm go, what to name with Mage? Chalice for 1 on turn 1/2 is almost always gamewarping whereas without good scouting you a) have to wait with your Mage until you are sure what your opponent is playing or b) might totally miss (naming Tide when he plays Threshold etc). Without a way to see your opponents hands it is also possible that you miss with Mage even if you know the archetype (naming Swords when he doesn't draw one the whole game).
I agree with hi-val, run Chalice of the Void.

You know you don't have to play Meddling Mage on turn two, right? And that by the time your opponent has played two lands you should probably be aware of what they're playing? And that the discussion is concerning what is better in the sideboard anyway?

As far as I know, Mage and Chalice 1 are both pretty significant obstacles for combo decks. Mage beats, so it's probably better in any sort of aggressive decks. Besides, the Countersliver decks are playing like eighteen land (or they were a while ago) and will never be able to actually cast Chalice 2.

[MattH]

Solidarity isn't trying to control the board (notice the COMPLETE LACK OF REMOVAL), it's trying to stall the opponent and protect its combo. That's not a control game, that's a combo game.
What, in your opinion, WOULD a "combo-control game" look like, if not this?

Tide plays the control role against any deck faster than it (Belcher, TES, some other Tendrils decks, the occasional goblin draw). It switches fairly effortlessly between stopping the opponent from winning to winning itself. I am not sure what you think a combo-control deck looks like if Tide is not one.

Combo decks do not typically use the "stall the opponent" half of your gameplan. They force their combo through as early as they think they can. Tide does not do this. When facing counterspells, combo decks force their combo through via brute force methods such as Xantid or the Storm mechanic, flatly declaring "you can't counter my spells", where Tide plays a much more elegant game - what some people call "stack control."

[coolmagics]

You know you don't have to play Meddling Mage on turn two, right? And that by the time your opponent has played two lands you should probably be aware of what they're playing? And that the discussion is concerning what is better in the sideboard anyway?

As far as I know, Mage and Chalice 1 are both pretty significant obstacles for combo decks. Mage beats, so it's probably better in any sort of aggressive decks. Besides, the Countersliver decks are playing like eighteen land (or they were a while ago) and will never be able to actually cast Chalice 2.

If they're playing IGGYPoP or another quick combo deck, you definately want to play MM turn two. Also, if you're going first, your opponent won't have two lands in play. His point of saying that he doesn't always know what to name with MM on turn two is one of the reasons to leave it in the sideboard.

[Awesomator]

Chalice at 1 does not stop the majority of CounterSliver's creatures or ANY of its Counterspells. Your best bet against them is resolving a Chalice at two, then they probably lose. The matchup between Countersliver and Goblins is no joke. The fact that Countersliver has a strong match against Goblins, is 50-50 with Thresh, and about the same against storm combo makes it a solid contender in the metagame. Lol, just pray to God your opponent does not resolve a Dystopia. :cry:

LOL I wasn't talking aboiut for when I play against meathooks.... I was talking about in general. How chalice for 1 cuts 12 cards in the deck and yet i still play it.

[CalebD]

their mana curves are in fact almost identical.

All 3 of the u/x aggro-control decks have between 16-20 spells at 1cc, 12-16 spells at 2cc, and <15 spells over 2. To say that their mana curves are vastly different is not only a mistake, it could be fatal when trying to address the decks.

You're right, I didn't say what I meant exactly. Chalice at 1 crushes thresh almost by itself, so against thresh I'm happy to keep a slow hand with chalice that has fow backup whether I'm playing affownity or FS. Thresh just can't deal without its cantrips, cutting those off cuts off its reliability to get land, creatures, and permission/removal.

Against slivers, though, you can't afford to do this. Chalice isn't nearly as good, as they run higher-costing threats, a (seemingly) more stable manabase, sometimes aether vial, and let us not forget harmonic sliver.

I assumed that since Chalice was so much worse for me against slivers it would be even worse for other decks, like gobblins, and so not a very good sb. choice. I do believe that gobblins could board in chalice against thresh, though.




What, in your opinion, WOULD a "combo-control game" look like, if not this?

Tide plays the control role against any deck faster than it (Belcher, TES, some other Tendrils decks, the occasional goblin draw). It switches fairly effortlessly between stopping the opponent from winning to winning itself. I am not sure what you think a combo-control deck looks like if Tide is not one.."

The reason it switches so effortlessly is because the "control" elements of the deck are all cards it can use as protection while going off. Also, the deck has no method of victory outside of the combo. Here are a few examples of what I think of as combo-control decks:

No-stick decks. Scepter decks can win just off its combo, its combo and creature beats, or simply creatures. These win conditions are all backed up with dedicated-board control elements (WoG) as well as dedicated permission (Counterspell).

Tooth and Nail has generally run board sweepers/stall elements, and has the ability to win without its combo. Even its combo can play control roles, with things like platinum angel and trike-vampire.



Combo decks do not typically use the "stall the opponent" half of your gameplan. They force their combo through as early as they think they can. Tide does not do this."

This is only because Tide goes off at instant speed, thus being able to choose when to go off. Tendrils decks want to win ASAP because they don't know if they'll get a chance to untap or not, of if the opponent will drop a chalice/trinisphere or something.

The more cards a storm deck has, the better their odds of not fizzling. Since Solidarity can go off at instant speed, and is more and more reliable with every land drop, there's no reason to rush things.

You'll notice that Spring Tide doesn't have the title of "combo-control," does that mean the addition of resets and remands adds the title of "control" onto a deck?



When facing counterspells, combo decks force their combo through via brute force methods such as Xantid or the Storm mechanic, flatly declaring "you can't counter my spells", where Tide plays a much more elegant game - what some people call "stack control."

Tide doesn't take advantage of the storm mechanic when playing against permission? Or do "brute" things like forcing through key spells? I think you're wrong.

Being able to go off at instant speed just gives the deck manuverability, allowing it to out-manuver the control decks. Manuverability alone does not a control deck make.


Edit: sorry, I didn't see this post.


No, if you discard a lesser equipment/Chalice to Thirst and I have a Welder in play, you are in trouble.

That's assuming the welder survives, and assuming the FS player doesn't know how Goblin Welder works.



Red stax runs 2-4(depending on how many quakes you own) sweepers that can kill everything on your board..

Unless they're equipped, or have protection from red...


Boil kills your Blue mana, which you need to cast the threats in your deck.

Unless we have a chrome mox/seat of the synod, both of which are tutorable via trinket mage, and WILL be tutored up by a good FS player against stax.


Trinisphere shuts down FOW, which is incredibly important when a stax player is about to resolve Bridge.

Yes, stax has trinisphere which MIGHT shut down one card in our deck IF we draw it, and IF we can't pay the 3 mana, which is basically the entirety of FS's curve, and then you MIGHT have the one relevant spell in your deck that it MIGHT protect. See where I'm going here?


Also, It's not that hard to Chalice @ 3 to shut down your larger threats in the lategame.

Yes, if it goes to the lategame then you probably will win. However, FS is a fast deck, and red stax's stall methods are particularily bad against it.

Anyway, sorry for getting off topic yet again.

[Volt]

Assuming the Hulk/Flash combo stays legal, how drastically will this affect the metagame? Some specific questions:

1) Will Hulk Flash be the most common combo deck at the tournament?

2) Will Hulk Flash be the most common deck period at the tournament?

3) Will the presence of Goblins be greatly diminished? Or will they simply adjust by adding maindeck Leylines and/or Chalices?

[SARCASTO]

Void, I'm pretty sure that future sight isn't legal until the second day so you cannot play with the pacts.


So this thread is kind of devolving into arguments about my deck beats your deck. So I will try and get it back on track by posing some questions for people to answer.

1. What would you bring to Ohio if you go?

2. What do you perceive as your good matchups? Why?

3. What do you perceive as your bad matchups? Why?

4. What is your sideboard and why?

4. Why would you choose this deck?

[Volt]

Volt, I'm pretty sure that future sight isn't legal until the second day so you cannot play with the pacts.

I'm aware of that. The pacts can be replaced with Worldly Tutor and Daze, and it's still a highly, highly effective deck.

Before Hulk Flash came along, I was planning on bringing CounterSliver because it beats Goblins, Solidarity, TES/Iggy, and goes 50/50 with Thresh/Fish. It has a tough time with decks that run heavy board control, such as Truffle Shuffle, Wombat, etc.

I think I'm probably still going to bring CounterSliver, although it will have to be tweaked to deal with Hulk Flash.

[Hummingbird TG]

Volt:

1) Yes.

2) Maybe. it's powerful, but not that powerful, pre FS. Though it has a very good chance of being so, as it has a bye against the current most popular deck.

3)Yes. Mystical->Bounce solves Leyline and Chalice. Chalice can, too, be countered.

[realmlord]

Because of the expected shift in the metagame for Columbus, I will be playing Angel Stax.

It has good matchups against any pure aggro (Goblins, Boros) that chooses to show up. It also has the ability to beat the Fish decks that will be out to combat Hulk Flash.

50-50 matchups: Hulk-Flash in our testing here has shown this to be a 50% matchup. However, HF still gets the silly turn 0-1 wins sometimes that Stax cannot beat because of no access to FoW/Daze etc. Most Threshold decks are even matchups with Stax.

Bad Matchups: Red Death and Solidarity are hell for White Stax pre-board. There are ways to make the matchup better post-board, but so far these are difficult matches.

I have chosen to run 3 Defense Grids, 2 Glowriders, 2 Sphere of Resistance, 2 Wrath of God, 1 Hanna's Custody, 2 Rule of Law and 3 Humility in the sideboard. These help in the weaker matchups like Solidarity. Sphere, Humility and Glowrider come in against Hulk Flash even though Humility may never make it into play, they are better than Armageddon in the matchup and come in for the Ghostly prisons in the Disciple HF matchup.

I chose to play Angel Stax because it can trudge through nearly any meta with a winning record. Also, I have played the deck for quite a while and am familiar with playing it against all of the relevant decks.

[emidln]

1. AT1. I have more experience with Stax than any other deck, and it seems silly to throw away a very large advantage that I can gain over others by knowing my deck very well.

2. Preboard, I think Goblins, Threshold, Affinity, Loam variants, Ichorid, and Fish are all very good matchups preboard. Properly boarding leaves blue-based control variants, Solidarity, Iggy Pop, TES, Kiki-Jiki Flash, and Deadguy as very favorable.

3. Burn/decks with Price of Progress main. These are extremely rough and difficult for my stax build to beat consistently. We can randomly blow them out, but we randomly lose more often.

4. My sideboard looks like this:

4 Goblin Welder
4 Pithing Needle
4 Jester's Cap
3 Boil

Welder is brought in against permissions, discard, artifact hate, and when I have nothing better to board (he does broken things). He's really good.

Pithing Needle is utility against pretty much everything. It's not maindeck because I don't want to make it dead too often with Chalice @ 1. Notably, it wrecks U-based combo's manabase, aether vial, and pernicious deed.

Jester's Cap is a recent meta call geared towards combo and control. Ripping out 3 combo pieces or 3 cards I don't want to see seems like it's pretty good. Combined with Welder it can do some silly stuff to any deck.

Boil beats decks with Islands. Many of the top decks today play Islands. One-sided instant-speed Armageddons seem really good.

6. I have a lot of faith in my deck due to extensive testing. I know how to play out of many particularly bad situations, as well as how to beat anything in the format. With solid matchups against a good portion of the field, it seems to me that it would be bad for me to play another deck.

[Tacosnape]

Assuming the Hulk/Flash combo stays legal, how drastically will this affect the metagame? Some specific questions:

1) Will Hulk Flash be the most common combo deck at the tournament?

2) Will Hulk Flash be the most common deck period at the tournament?

3) Will the presence of Goblins be greatly diminished? Or will they simply adjust by adding maindeck Leylines and/or Chalices?

1. Yes. Iggy Pop will be close though.
2. No. But GP Columbus will be the absolute last major tournament where this is the case until Flash gets banned.
3. Diminisho Baggins.

[APriestOfGix]

Every deck should be running at LEAST 4 Leyline in the board to try and stop Hulk Flash (or something else if it dosn't fit your colors).


Every deck needs to have at leats 4 main deck answers to Hulk Flash that are relevent turn 1.


Simply nobody will top 8 that can't do something to stop/slow Hulk Flash turn 1-2, excluding not seeing Hulk all day, or the Hulk player mulling to 2 all three games (yes the Hulk player won one of those games he mulled to 2...)

[lavafrogg]

I predict sexy rector top eight

Imagine Flash>hulk
response Flash>rector>ivory mask gg
or
Flash>rector>humility gg

If flash is really the most broken card in the format right now then the person who breaks it in the best possible way will win the GP. Turn 2 flash rector is better than most legacy decks.

Also the deck has the ability to play and sacrifice rector the normal way.
Im off to post my decklist.

[Shriekmaw]

I predict sexy rector top eight

Imagine Flash>hulk
response Flash>rector>ivory mask gg
or
Flash>rector>humility gg

If flash is really the most broken card in the format right now then the person who breaks it in the best possible way will win the GP. Turn 2 flash rector is better than most legacy decks.

Also the deck has the ability to play and sacrifice rector the normal way.
Im off to post my decklist.

You have to be kidding me if your response to Flash-Hulk, is Flash-Rector. I can think of a lot better ways to stop Hulk Flash then is piece of garbage. Plus, Hulk Flash does run bounce spells so with Humility into play it isn't good game at all.

I believe the three most played decks at the GP will be Hulk Flash, Threshold, and Fish variants. The other two will be played b/c they are a very good matchup at beating Hulk Flash that you will see all over the place.

[Gekoratel]

You have to be kidding me if your response to Flash-Hulk, is Flash-Rector. I can think of a lot better ways to stop Hulk Flash then is piece of garbage.

Winning the game is a decent alternative as well if your resolving Flash.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

I predict sexy rector top eight

Imagine Flash>hulk
response Flash>rector>ivory mask gg
or
Flash>rector>humility gg

If flash is really the most broken card in the format right now then the person who breaks it in the best possible way will win the GP. Turn 2 flash rector is better than most legacy decks.

Also the deck has the ability to play and sacrifice rector the normal way.
Im off to post my decklist.

I want you to imagine that there are the following two cards;

Rock
B
Instant
Rock deals 20 damage to target creature or player.

Paper
G
Instant
Gain 20 life, or prevent the next 20 damage that would be dealt to target creature or player this turn.


On the surface, it seems that Paper counters Rock, as it negates the effect of Rock entirely. However, in reality, the deck with 4 Rocks will always be drastically favored. How is Paper going to beat Rock? If the Rock player is able to play a Rock and the Paper player doesn't have Paper active, the Paper player loses. However, the Paper player doesn't actually win if they resolve their card first- all they've done is neuter one Rock. If Rock then draws it's second Rock before the second Paper is drawn, then Rock wins again. You're engaged in a game of coin flips where you lose to heads, and tails merely creates another coin flip.

[Zach Tartell]

On the surface, it seems that Paper counters Rock, as it negates the effect of Rock entirely. However, in reality, the deck with 4 Rocks will always be drastically favored. How is Paper going to beat Rock? If the Rock player is able to play a Rock and the Paper player doesn't have Paper active, the Paper player loses. However, the Paper player doesn't actually win if they resolve their card first- all they've done is neuter one Rock. If Rock then draws it's second Rock before the second Paper is drawn, then Rock wins again. You're engaged in a game of coin flips where you lose to heads, and tails merely creates another coin flip.

Simple answer: Just print Sicors:

Sicssors
W
Instant

Search your library for a creature with the type "Flagbearer" and put it into play; reshuffle.

[Arrowni]

Gah, I just saw how a guy was playing white weenie and lost against Flash. Against massacre. How many times did I say not to play Plains in WW? As in, playing painlands, karakas, etc. I'm just bitching about it of course, no way of knowing if he even read comments in here.

[iOWN]

Gah, I just saw how a guy was playing white weenie and lost against Flash. Against massacre. How many times did I say not to play Plains in WW? As in, playing painlands, karakas, etc. I'm just bitching about it of course, no way of knowing if he even read comments in here.

That's stupid. Flash can just hardcast Massacre. Why would you want to sacrifice your Goblins matchup, which still makes up a good percentage of the field, to still lose against Flash? The answer is to not play WW.

[Arrowni]

Flash can rarely hardcast massacre fast enough to race beatings, its possible, but so it is to have weenie beat them without hate. About the choice of not playing white weenie, thats a metagame call, if you will choose to play it in a flash flooded meta is your choice, I just point out that if you are going to choose the hard way you have to be ready to do the extra work.

Besides the point: Fish dies to Goblins. Why playing fish if it will fail against a good percentage of the meta? Because sometimes to do that its the right call, plain and simple.

[iOWN]

Flash can rarely hardcast massacre fast enough to race beatings, its possible, but so it is to have weenie beat them without hate. About the choice of not playing white weenie, thats a metagame call, if you will choose to play it in a flash flooded meta is your choice, I just point out that if you are going to choose the hard way you have to be ready to do the extra work.

Besides the point: Fish dies to Goblins. Why playing fish if it will fail against a good percentage of the meta? Because sometimes to do that its the right call, plain and simple.

WW is pretty much only a meta choice when you are expecting lots of Goblins: playing a build of WW that loses to Goblins is always an awful call.

[Bill Stark]

I created a new thread (http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?p=134485#post134485) for Bill's report.