UGR Thresh vs. UGW Thresh - Why did UGW fall off the map?

[SuckerPunch]

It seems like UGW Thresh lists are almost nonexistent. None of the recent tournaments list them anywhere in the top 32. But they're packed with UGR lists.

This doesn't make sense to me.

The two most popular decks right now are combo and Goyf based Aggro. Goblins has decreased in popularity. Back when goblins was popular, UGW lists were the most frequently seen. But now that combo and Goyf are on the increase, they disappear!?

StP kills Goyf, burn doesn't.

Meddling Mage trumps combo, burn doesn't.

Is there a reason why thresh players are opting for red over white in such large numbers?

[Barook]

StP kills Goyf, burn doesn't.

Meddling Mage trumps combo, burn doesn't.
Burn kills your opponents' Gofys as well after clashing with your own Gofys. Plus, it adds reach.

Red gives you Pyroclasm which happens to trump EtW tokens (one of the primary combo win options now) among other things.

I think these are some reasons why the red splash is prefered atm.

[SuckerPunch]

That only works if both of you have a Goyf in play. Which doesn't happen always as you only play 4.

And even when you do, StP has the definate advantage.

Because StP kills the Goyf before your opponent can attack or block with it. This means that your opponent can't burn your own Goyf as there was no Goyf to block it with in the first place.

If you were playing UGR vs. UGR, true you get to kill your opponents Goyf, but they get to kill your Goyf as well. Not so for the UGW lists.

The best most stable win condition for many combo decks is still Tendrils of Agony, which the UGR lists have no plan of action against. As for Warrens tokens, EE takes them out just as well, for the same mana cost, all while also taking out Chrome Moxes etc, and all while pumping your goyf.

Meddling Mage is also a lot more flexible than Pyroclasm. Against Ichorid, it can name Dread Return to prevent a giant Sutured Ghoul, against Landstill, it can name Standstill. Other than Warrens, Pyroclasm is only good against weenie rush strategies which seem to be falling out of favor.

To me, it's pretty clear that UGW is superior against both combo, and in the mirror match.

[DragoFireheart]

Red also gives you access to pyrostatic pillar, which is useful for slowing down combo decks.

Red also gives Red Elemental Blast / Pyroblast to fight other thres decks and also fight blue-heavy control decks.

Someone already mentioned pyroclasm. Pyroclasm is also great Vs goblins and EtW tokens.

[Volt]

White Thresh has the better maindeck. I've played both versions, and I much prefer Swords to Bolt. Red Thresh has better sideoard options. i.e. Pyroclasm and red blasts.

I prefer White Thresh with maindeck CounterTop, because Goblins are almost non-existent in my metagame.

[SuckerPunch]

I haven't ever tried Pyrostatic Pillar in UGR. But it doesn't seem like it would be very good.

Good Iggy Pop and TES players easily play around Pyrostatic Pillar (multiple tendrils etc).

It's you, the thresh player, who takes massive amount of damage from it because of your own cantrip engine. If anything, that should make it easier for the combo player to finish you off with even a small storm count.

[DragoFireheart]

White Thresh has the better maindeck. I've played both versions, and I much prefer Swords to Bolt. Red Thresh has better sideoard options. i.e. Pyroclasm and red blasts.

I prefer White Thresh with maindeck CounterTop, because Goblins are almost non-existent in my metagame.

Is swords the only reason to run UGW? There is also the meddling mage. Him alone makes it worth it.

Someone needs to get on MWS and have a couple of good Thresh players duel. One would use UGW and the other would use UGR and duel each other tourney style, sideboard and all.

[DragoFireheart]

I haven't ever tried Pyrostatic Pillar in UGR. But it doesn't seem like it would be very good.

Good Iggy Pop and TES players easily play around Pyrostatic Pillar (multiple tendrils etc).

It's you, the thresh player, who takes massive amount of damage from it because of your own cantrip engine. If anything, that should make it easier for the combo player to finish you off with even a small storm count.

Which is why you play your hand first and then play the pillar.

[SuckerPunch]

Yes, because combo winning on the third turn or earlier is sooo unheard of in legacy.

Yeah, wait around till you've played out your hand before playing your combo hate, that should work out real well. :wink:

As an aside, I would love to see some of the lists you guys will be using for UGW thresh once Think gets printed.

What pisses me off the most about UGW falling off the map, is that development of the deck seems to have ceased. So to see what new tech the good players are using would be sweet.

How many are running the Top Engine? EE maindeck? etc.

My personal tech, is a large threat base.

Most lists I see run 8-12 creatures max, which personally I've found to be way too low in a format as packed with removal as this one.

So I run...

4 Mongoose
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Meddling Mage
2 Werebear
2 Mystic Enforcer

This way, I rarely have to expend large resource to protect my threats, and can instead focus on messing up my opponents plan.

[Pale Moon FTW]

I really think that the reach given by Lightning Bolt is overrated. It seems much more relevant ATM to be able to effeciently getting rid of Goyf and other fatties than to be able to throw a bolt at your opponent. Add to that the effect of Meddling Mages in the UGW sideboard. I think the reason UGR lists are still the most common is that they used to be regarded as superior before Goyf and players haven't made the switch yet (probably because UGR ***** still is a great deck as well, so most people are content with it). there's also been an amount of burn-reach-hype.
Pyrostatic Pillar is junk, even Arcane Laboratory is better then and both versions can play it anyway (not that they should) and as already mentioned EE can take care of EtW token better than Pyroclasm anyways.
I agree with SuckerPunch that most UGW lists lack creatures. I'm not currently playing ******** but here's what I'd run:
4 Goyf
4 Mongoose
3 Werebear
3-4 Enforcer
I'd keep mages in the board. I probably wouldn't play maindeck CounterTop either. The deck's mana curve doesn't seem to be able to exploit it very well.

Oh and BTW I prefer the UGW version of ***** :tongue:

[SuckerPunch]

Oh and BTW I prefer the UGW version of ***** :tongue:

Really!! :eek:

I didn't get that impression from your post at all.

I agree with you on all counts though and I would interested in seeing what your list will look like once Think gets printed, unless it has tech you wanted to keep a secret or something.

[Eldariel]

It's telling that straight UG won in the field of UGr at GenCon. Peter himself stated that he figured UG has the advantage in the mirror since all the removal is more or less dead there and thus he didn't have any dead cards and the added ability to occasionally cut his opponents off their tertiary colour entirely to neuter parts of their deck.

UGw definitely has the advantage over UGr, it isn't worth figuring out through games; as long as both are otherwise identical, StP>Bolt & Fire/Ice. Also, on the SB, Jotun Grunt is a valuable addition. EE handles the Warrens-tokens and you hardly need more answers than 4 EEs for that particular issue. So yea, UGw probably didn't place because Goblins are still around in numbers (just because they haven't Top 8d as much doesn't mean they aren't there) and because straight UG should have the advantage against UGw too in the mirror (at least according to Peter who claimed to never have lost a Threshold-mirror against either splash). Also, since Goblins have been expected in numbers, UGr has been favoured over UGw, so the lack of UGw in Top 8s probably can be accounted also to simply lower density of UGw decks on the field.

[SuckerPunch]

so the lack of UGw in Top 8s probably can be accounted also to simply lower density of UGw decks on the field.

I think it's pretty clear that this is the main factor. Its not just Worlds, all the recent tourneys barely had any UGw lists anywhere, not just the top 8.

And now with Goyf, UGw has a favorable matchup against goblins as well and goblins is declining in numbers across the board. That's what so odd about the lack of UGw's presence where as it used to be the more frequently seen build before Goyf.

And yes, if StP weren't enough reason to prefer UGw in the mirror match, Jotun Grunt from the board is a huge tempo boost as well.

Yeah, I don't particualarly like the Top + Counterbalance engine either, I don't know why it's getting so much hype.

[DragoFireheart]

Yeah, I don't particualarly like the Top + Counterbalance engine either, I don't know why it's getting so much hype.

Because it's a fun way to stall someone?

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

I think Meddling Mage is highly over-rated in the current environment. It's amazing at stopping slower combo, but not that good where combo goes off turns 1-2.

I think StP vs. Burn is a coin flip. Burn can remove players, which isn't to be underestimated.

But, I think more importantly, White gives you Armgeddon and Mystic Enforcer. Those cards are very strong. Armageddon especially takes out one of your hardest matchups (board control) more efficiently than Ruiniation or Mana Vortex can.

[Pale Moon FTW]

I agree with you on all counts though and I would interested in seeing what your list will look like once Think gets printed, unless it has tech you wanted to keep a secret or something.

Well it's not secret because I live in Europe anyways. As I said I'm not playing ******** ATM, but I'll probably buy the few cards I need (just Goyfs and some cantrips) to make it soon. This is the list I've been testing:

4 Flooded Strand
2 Island
4 Tropical Island
3 Tundra
4 Polluted Delta
4 Mystic Enforcer
4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Werebear
4 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Portent
4 Serum Visions
4 Predict
4 Counterspell
SB: 3 Blue Elemental Blast
SB: 3 Tormod's Crypt
SB: 4 Meddling Mage
SB: 2 Daze
SB: 3 Stifle

It's based off a list that Hanni posted in the UGw ******** thread some time ago. I kicked CounterTop out for more cantrips and counters. I use Counterspell over Daze because my meta still sees a lot of aggro. Serum Visions will might be replaced by Neo-Portent when Lorwyn comes, but it's nice to run a few sorceries for Goyf though. I used Mental Note through most of my testing, but I found myself shuffling them away with Brainstorm+Fetchland or use them as Predict-fodder far too often.

[Volt]

But, I think more importantly, White gives you Armgeddon and Mystic Enforcer. Those cards are very strong. Armageddon especially takes out one of your hardest matchups (board control) more efficiently than Ruiniation or Mana Vortex can.

Price of Progress hurts most of those same decks against which Armageddon is good. It might even be better, frankly.


To answer SuckerPunch's request for a UGW decklist, here's the one I piloted to a T4 split last weekend (http://mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6784):

4 Tropical Island
3 Tundra
3 Windswept Heath
2 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
2 Island
1 Forest

4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Mystic Enforcer

4 Swords to Plowshares
3 Pithing Needle

4 Brainstorm
4 Serum Visions
4 Predict
3 Sensei's Divining Top

4 Force of Will
4 Daze
3 Counterbalance

SB:
3 Armageddon
3 Hydroblast
3 Spell Snare
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Hail Storm
2 Krosan Grip

I've actually been pretty damn happy with the CounterTop engine. One thing that should not be understimated is how much synergy both of those cards (Counterbalance and Divining Top) have with Predict, let alone each other. As IBA said, Meddling Mage is kind of overrated in the current environment.

[Machinus]

Price of Progress hurts most of those same decks against which Armageddon is good. It might even be better, frankly.


To answer SuckerPunch's request for a UGW decklist, here's the one I piloted to a T4 split last weekend (http://mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6784):

4 Tropical Island
3 Tundra
3 Windswept Heath
2 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
2 Island
1 Forest

4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Mystic Enforcer

4 Swords to Plowshares
3 Pithing Needle

4 Brainstorm
4 Serum Visions
4 Predict
3 Sensei's Divining Top

4 Force of Will
4 Daze
3 Counterbalance

SB:
3 Armageddon
3 Hydroblast
3 Spell Snare
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Hail Storm
2 Krosan Grip

I've actually been pretty damn happy with the CounterTop engine. One thing that should not be understimated is how much synergy both of those cards (Counterbalance and Divining Top) have with Predict, let alone each other. As IBA said, Meddling Mage is kind of overrated in the current environment.

Interesting decklist. Were you influenced by my Annandale list?

[SuckerPunch]

Congrats on the win. How many people were at the tourney?

The list looks solid.

The only thing I would change would be to cut some Pithing Needles for more threats. 2 Werebears atleast. Did you ever find yourself threat light in the face of removal?

The thing with PoP is it does a ton of damage to you as well though I guess that shouldn't matter if your threats have been dealing damage.

[Volt]

Interesting decklist. Were you influenced by my Annandale list?

I did look at your list when I was building the deck, yes. I also looked very closely at the Hatfields' Red Thresh list.


EDIT: Just 17 people at the tournament, btw, so I'm not claiming my T4 finish proves anything.

[SuckerPunch]

IMO, people started to realize that UGR was better before Goyf was printed and people started switching over.

They just haven't switched back yet IMO. But UGw def seems to be better.

Of course, this could all change if Planeswalkers become playable in Legacy.

Red has a huge advantage over the other colors when it comes to dealing with Planeswalkers.

Burn gets rid of them, removal doesn't.

Do you think this will have an impact?

[Volt]

The only thing I would change would be to cut some Pithing Needles for more threats. 2 Werebears atleast. Did you ever find yourself threat light in the face of removal?

Actually, no, I did not find the deck to be too light on threats. Also, the CounterTop engine protects your guy(s) from removal. Or you just go find another one.

The Pithing Needles are relevant in almost every single match I play. I'm not cutting any of those babies.


The thing with PoP is it does a ton of damage to you as well though I guess that shouldn't matter if your threats have been dealing damage.

Since you know PoP is coming, you can fetch your basics, which you probably want to do against Landstill anyway. You might take 2-4 damage from the PoP, but your opponent will be taking 8 or more.

[Zilla]

I don't think either list is strictly superior in the current metagame.

By and large, I think UGw is favored in the mirror against Ugr because of StP.

In my experience, both lists are strongly favored against combo. Meddling Mage isn't really necessary to beat it. It certainly helps, but in most cases, Stifle does the same job, and red lists tend to be more aggressive, which means they can afford to be slightly less controlling. In this regard, they tend to balance out.

Both lists are about the same against dedicated control like Landstill. UGw has Armageddon, UGr has Price of Progress. Each has their advantages and disadvantages, but in my testing experience they tend to break about even with each other against control, and neither is favored.

UGr also gets REBs, which is a real boon against control. It also has more lategame reach thanks to burn, which is beneficial against control.

UGr is much, much better against Goblins. It's favored preboard, and heavily favored with Pyroclasm postboard. In my experience, white still has a tough time with Goblins, even with the addition of Tarmogoyf.

UGr has a more efficient answer to EtW tokens in Pyroclasm, but in most cases, Engineered Explosives is enough for UGw to get the job done also, and both lists are favored against Storm combo.

It's not super relevant at the moment, but UGr has Sudden Shock as an SB option against Cephalid Breakfast, and it can be useful in other matchups where lategame reach is needced as well.


The upshot, overall, is that UGr is the better call in a metagame likely to see a lot of Goblins, and UGw is the better call in a metagame likely to see a lot of the Thresh mirror. I think UGr is slightly better against blue-based control, but neither is favored. The trend right now is definitely towards Thresh and away from Goblins, so UGw is likely going to start gaining more and more popularity again. Overall, they're both perfectly viable, and there may come a time when the metagame shifts back towards favorable conditions for UGr.

[Volt]

For what it's worth, maindeck CounterTop and Pithing Needles help a LOT against Landstill. They bring that matchup pretty close to 50/50. You might even be slightly favored after sideboarding.

[AnwarA101]

I just wanted to point out that UGWR is doing quite well in Germany. I'm not sure how that really helps in determining the difference between the two since that version has both colors in it, but white hasn't completely lost favor with people in Germany. As for the US, it does seem that UGR is making more T8s than UGW.

[Zilla]

IAs for the US, it does seem that UGR is making more T8s than UGW.
As SuckerPunch suggested, I think this is more a product of what people are playing than what's actually better, although I could be wrong. UGr seems to be doing well because people are choosing to play it over UGw, as far as I can tell. This may be due to the almost reflexive assumption that Goblins will be a major metagame obstacle. As people start realizing that this is less and less the case, they'll likely switch back to UGw.

[Nihil Credo]

I'd also guess that many people try out UGW with maindeck Mage, realize Mage is pretty mediocre, and then just switch to UGR instead of trying out Mageless UGW.

On a different note, I'm a little surprised so little work has been done on UGB. Black's removal options are clearly inferior*, but Dark Confidant is insane and the colour offers some very tempting sideboard options (from Duress to Extirpate to Engineered Plague).


* Proving once again Legacy's colour pie was cooked by a lunatic.

[Zilla]

On a different note, I'm a little surprised so little work has been done on UGB. Black's removal options are clearly inferior*, but Dark Confidant is insane and the colour offers some very tempting sideboard options (from Duress to Extirpate to Engineered Plague).


* Proving once again Legacy's colour pie was cooked by a lunatic.
I tested UGB a bit and found it wanting, personally. Confidant is nice and all, but it really helps you lose the damage race in the mirror, and it makes Fire/Ice and Mogg Fanatic relly good against you. Smother is a decent removal option, but as you've noted, it's simply worse than StP.* Duress is a great card, but it doesn't really give you anything you need. You're already favored against combo, and the mirror has Brainstorm to blunt its effectiveness. Engineered Plague is nice, but in most cases it seems strictly inferior to Pyroclasm.

Basically I feel like the only reason to run black right now is Confidant, and that's probably not enough, given the inherent strengths of the other colors. Plus, black doesn't have the large trump card like Enforcer or Dragon that the other two splashes have, and while that's not a huge deal, it can be relevant, particularly in the mirror.

*The color pie cook may be on crack, but if he didn't bake it that way there'd be no reason at all to play white, so I guess it is what it is.

[Nihil Credo]

A couple of minor notes: black does have its cheap fat flier (Tombstalker), and Ghastly Demise is probably the better removal right now, since Tarmogoyf has driven most black beaters out of the format; personally I run a mix of 3 Demises/2 Edicts, plus maindeck Explosives - yeah, I'm a controllish player.

Confidant actually shines in the mirror: the lifeloss is practically nonexistent with the cantrips and/or Top, and if it eats a removal spell after drawing even a single card I'm happy about it (if it's an StP, I'm happy even if it didn't draw a card). It only really sucks bollocks against aggro.

Though if I had to splash Black for a single card, it would be Extirpate. The main reason I like UGb despite its shortcomings is that it has the potential to turn difficult matchups like IBA decks, Loam or Ichorid into winnable ones, and Extirpate gets 80% of the praise for that.

[AngryTroll]

I play a lot of UGW Thresh, but right now there are several different versions of the deck that all seem viable, and I don't know which to run.

Bardo Thresh (Mages, 2 Needles, 2 Explosives, 4 Mental Note)
Counter Top (main or board or not at all?)
Mage in the main, side, or not at all
Werebear in the Mage slots (4 Goose, 4 Goyf, 4 Werebear, 2 Enforcer, 4 Mental Note)
Predict or Mental Note
And now, which cantrip configuration to run? Brainstorm, Portent, Think, Predict? Brainstorm, Think, Mental Note?