[Advice] Going in Blind

[Hoojo]

There is a decent sized Legacy tournament (Cogcon if you've heard of it) coming up at the end of this month which gives me the chance to play with physical cards. I'm not sure what will be there, as its about 3 hours from where I live, but I think I can count on it being recent GP and Worlds influenced. The trouble I'm having is deciding between UGw and UGr Threshold.

I was leaning towards UGw because of Swords to Plowshares. I'm still on the fence with Wasteland and Stifle, but I am strongly considering Spell Snare. I would run Meddling Mage in the side with the Counterbalance and Sensei's Divining Top. I've considered Vedalken Shackles as well.

I look to UGr because of the reach Lightning Bolt and Fire/Ice provide. Sideboard options are very good with red as well, with Pyroclasm, Red Elemental Blasts, and Pyroblasts. Does Fledgling Dragon still need a maindeck spot or is Tarmogoyf strong enough? Also, Wasteland and Stifle seem better in UGr, but again I'm on the fence.

I could use some advice mostly because I'm really not sure what to expect. There is a $500 dollar Extended tournament the day before, so I may be facing a bunch of Extended ports. Suggestions?

[SpatulaOfTheAges]

If you expect a lot of Thresh and decks trying to feed on Thresh, Waste and Stifle seem good. They throw all the control decks off balance long enough for your dudes to smash face, and there aren't many match-ups where they're dead.

I dunno about r vs w though.

[emidln]

I was considering driving to this with some friends (and visiting a couple friends at Rolla while I'm there). I was going to play Sun Tower with Words of Wilding for what it's worth, but I'm probably not going to make it. I'd likely play Stax or Deadguy with Smallpox in this kind of environment though.

[zulander]

Yeah, there will be a ton of combo and thresh, and imo I think swords is going to be better than bolt because of all the goyfs running around. I'd play ugw thresh if the choices were between r/w thresh.

[DragoFireheart]

I'd go the White route, if only for the meddling mage.

I'd also like to add that while it is somewhat counter-productive, you could run Jotun Grunt and not use some of the Thresh creatures to kill the opponents goyf/thresh creatures in a mirror match.

[Zilla]

If you think you're going to see a ton of the mirror, white is probably the best way to go, because StP is a more solid answer to opposing Tarmogoyfs. Then again, it's really important to remember that in the mirror, you can also use burn to remove opposing Goyfs when they chump block your attacking one. I don't think UGw is hugely favored in the mirror, but slightly so.

There's a lot to be said for the red splash though; it can more easily shift between aggro and control roles, in my experience. It also, as you mentioned, has late game reach, which can be clutch in control matchups as well as others. The red splash is also much better against Goblins, which, despite its recent decline, is still fairly widely played.

Stifle is a solid plan no matter which build you run. It's a mini-Sinkhole on fetchlands, it adds answers to storm combo, it has countless uses against Goblins, and it's good at protecting your threats from permanent-based mass removal like Deed and Explosives.

Ultimately though, going completely blind into an unknown metagame, I think the correct call is to play the build you're most comfortable and have the most experience with. In a long tournament, reflexive knowledge of your deck and how it plays can be one of the most important factors in success.

[Hoojo]

I've whittled my decision down to two lists. I wasn't able to secure four Tarmogoyf's, which will play heavily into my final decision. With some insightful critique, I will be finalizing this week and start cardboard testing.

UGw Threshold w/o 3 Tarmogoyf's
//Land
4x Tundra
4x Tropical Island
4x Flooded Strand
1x Island
1x Plains
4x Wasteland

//Creatures
1x Tarmogoyf
3x Werebear
4x Nimble Mongoose
2x Mystic Enforcer

//Other Spells
4x Daze
4x Force of Will
4x Brainstorm
4x Portent
4x Predict
4x Stifle
4x Swords to Plowshares
1x Condemn
3x Engineered Explosives

//Sideboard
4x Counterbalance
3x Sensei's Divining Top
3x Krosan Grip
2x Pithing Needle
3x Meddling Mage

I preparing the maindeck for an aggro-heavy field, figuring Legacy is a format of creatures. I feel the sideboard will cover the rest of my bases. I want to test Submerge for the mirror in place of Pithing Needle, but would like to hear more first.

My other list is a drastic change for Threshold. In fact, it's Cephalid Breakfast:

Cephalid Breakfast w/ Kiki-Hussar Kill and 1x Tarmogoyf
//Land
3x Tundra
3x Underground Sea
2x Tropical Island
1x Island
4x Polluted Delta
4x Flooded Strand

//Creatures
3x Narcomoeba
4x Cephalid Illusionist
4x Nomads en-Kor
1x Shaman en-Kor
1x Karmic Guide
1x Sky Hussar
1x Kiki-Jiki, Mirror-Breaker
1x Tarmogoyf

//Other Spells
4x AEther Vial
4x Cabal Therapy
4x Force of Will
2x Abeyance
4x Brainstorm
3x Lim-Dul's Vault
4x Portent
1x Dread Return
1x Echoing Truth

//Sideboard
3x Duress
1x Crippling Fatigue
1x Ray of Revelation
2x Krosan Grip
2x Pithing Needle
3x Pernicious Deed
3x Stifle

I don't have the stuff to run even a semi-optimal Sutured Ghoul list, which is why I went Kiki-Hussar. Also, a handful of testing resulted in wins specifically because my opponents expected Sutured Ghoul. I didn't want to cut green completely because I like the sideboard options better, but I never needed Worldly Tutor. Portent served great as a pitch card to Force of Will AND finding what I needed, and I'm convinced Lim-Dul's Vault is great if not broken. Two slots I'm struggling with are the fourth Cabal Therapy or the fourth Narcomoeba, since both have their strengths and weaknesses. Any help will be appreciated.

[FoolofaTook]

I would probably go with Cephalid Breakfast if you can't get 4 Goyfs. Threshold is becoming a Goyf-based deck and you'll have trouble in the mirror if you're using Werebears against the other decks Goyfs.

[T is for TOOL]

I would go with the 4th Narcomoeba over the Therapy. Aside from pitching to Force, having more in the deck becomes huge when you are comboing and need to make sure you have enough creatures in play. The Therapies will find themselves in your yard anyway, so including more Narcomoebas will help protect the combo against removal (before and during the combo), and also potentially enable you to cast more therapies anyway. More importantly, why are you running a single Gofy?

[Cabal-kun]

More importantly, why are you running a single Gofy?


I wasn't able to secure four Tarmogoyf's, which will play heavily into my final decision.

[Hoojo]

I would go with the 4th Narcomoeba over the Therapy. Aside from pitching to Force, having more in the deck becomes huge when you are comboing and need to make sure you have enough creatures in play. The Therapies will find themselves in your yard anyway, so including more Narcomoebas will help protect the combo against removal (before and during the combo), and also potentially enable you to cast more therapies anyway. More importantly, why are you running a single Gofy?

The single Tarmogoyf was actually left over when I was tweaking the deck on MWS. He never got in the way, and if he showed up, he created a lot of havoc on the board. One player even killed him, then extirpated him, thinking I needed it for the Sutured Ghoul kill. Obviously, I can't rely on this in a tournament, but I wanted to post the list with him in there to see if he garnered any criticism. I decided if no one noticed, I would run him, if someone picked it out, I would cut for the fourth Narcomoeba.

[kirdape3]

Why isn't four-color Threshold (everything but black) a consideration? Sure, Wasteland is nice, but you get the sideboard options of both colors and you can make a manabase work that isn't going to immediately die to the first Wasteland.

[Nihil Credo]

you can make a manabase work that isn't going to immediately die to the first Wasteland.
Can you show me one? The one from GP: Lille (or was it Philly?) sure did. I've never found a satisfying 4c manabase, myself.

Random-idea-that-comes-while-writing-slightly-related-post: Tundras in the main for StP and Volcanics in the side for 'Clasm. Stabler manabase, both SB options, and against Goblins' mana disruption (the only matchup where you want both removal spells) you get to go up to 19-20 lands. After all, didn't DicemanX say he only ever needed to SB in the CounterTop combo?

3 Volcanic Island
4 Pyroclasm
3 Counterbalance
1 Sensei's Divining Top (plus 1-2 MD)
2 Armageddon
2 ???