All B/R update speculation.

Next week is when the DCI updates the Banned and Restrict lists, they usually never touch anything in legacy, but I find the speculation fun anyways! :laugh:

What changes will they do to Legacy and Vintage? Will they unban Earthcraft, or will Tarmogoyf bit the dust? What cheap blue cantrip will be banned in Vintage this time? Does anyone care about the random bannings in the online-only casual formats, which are the only ones updated on a daily basis?

Edit: Didn't have space for Ad Nauseam on that poll. Also Tendrils is missing.
Edit2: And wasteland.


Edit by Dice_Box:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pettdan

Aaron Forsythe (@mtgaaron) Tweeted:
"It's one of the "pillars of the format" that makes it unique and players tolerate/love. It's like Brainstorm in Legacy. Every saturation metric we could ever invent would point to it being banned, but people love it. Transgressive stuff needs a place to live."

https://twitter.com/mtgaaron/status/...188588544?s=17

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Tezz control has been much more silent in Vintage since Thirst hit the rail, so nothing else will get restricted.

Nothing should change in Legacy either, but I wouldn't be surprised if Goof or Top/CB found the exit either. Anything that Wizards says right now has no merit due to the stunts they've pulled in the last few months.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TheRock

Tezz control has been much more silent in Vintage since Thirst hit the rail, so nothing else will get restricted.

Nothing should change in Legacy either, but I wouldn't be surprised if Goof or Top/CB found the exit either. Anything that Wizards says right now has no merit due to the stunts they've pulled in the last few months.

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Goyf won't be banned, see the Wizards article introducing FTV: Exiled (someone help us out and link?).

Top/CB can be played around. Yes, it creates a pretty sick lock, but unless it suddenly starts dominating the format (which it's not), it won't be touched.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Morbid-

Goyf won't be banned, see the Wizards article introducing FTV: Exiled (someone help us out and link?).

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I understand exactly what you're saying, but this is the same Wizards that unrestricted Gush and said that M10 will be 50% new cards and the same Wizards that rigged a poll...

I wouldn't be surprised anymore. This game moves at a fast pace and changes just happen.

Nothing needs to change as far as banning anything, so I hope Wizards doesn't act stupidly.

I wouldn't mind shaking things up a bit and pulling some stuff off of the banned list. It's really kinda sad to look at it because it shows you exactly how much Wizards cares about Legacy. I suppose that it makes perfect sense though. It seems things are actually slowly getting better for eternal formats.

I am very pleased to see Brainstorm as the first candidate.

I was skeptical about banning it when 2 Eva Green top8ed GP: Chicago, however, the deck somehow failed to continue the impetus. Banning Brainstorm could balance the color pie, weaken combo and let more mid range decks shoring up.

Top is the only bannable card. The next closest is brainstorm, aside from those nothing in the format is bannable. the obvious candidates can still come off but will not (land tax, and co)

Vintage will be unchanged.

Standard unchanged.

Extended unchanged.

4,000,023 changes to irrelivant formats

Legacy Unchanged.

Thats my predictions.

I have a theory about that.

For every set, the members of R&D (former pro-tour players) at Wizards have a fixed number of points to distribute for each color. The absolutely best cards are worth 5 points and the worst ones are worth 0.5. For some dumb reason, they tend to polarize blue so that it gets absolute bombs of crazy power level at rare, and absolute junk that no one plays at common. Then, they call the set balanced.

That explains why blue rares always tend to cost so much compared with the rares in other colors.

WTF??? I mean, why didn't you put Nourishing Shoal on that list? It seriously needs to be banned. The whole Germany is begging for the banhammer! I mean, it is format warping, and certainly unhealthy. Why shouldn't it get the axe??? Also, both Lich/Nefarious Lich need to be banned. I'd rather witness nuclear winter than playing in a Lich-infested format.

P.S. C'mon, men, take that seriously. 3 months ago, nothing changed. In these 3 months, nothing broken has been released. Why should the Legacy ban-list be modified?

They won't do it but Brainstorm is the most broken card in the format. It's the only way to easily draw 3 cards and keep all of them at little or no cost with no conditionality attached to play. It's the linchpin of big blue - still the most dominant effect in the meta, without which most blue decks would have to rethink their early game plan.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FoolofaTook

They won't do it but Brainstorm is the most broken card in the format. It's the only way to easily draw 3 cards and keep all of them at little or no cost with no conditionality attached to play. It's the linchpin of big blue - still the most dominant effect in the meta, without which most blue decks would have to rethink their early game plan.

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That being said, solid and broken are two entirely different things. Brainstorm helps blue stay in the game, searching for answers to aggressive decks, but that is not to say that Brainstorm shifts the game (necessarily) in your favour like Ancestral Recall or Fact or Fiction do with their sheer card adavantage. Brainstorm is a solid workhorse, and therefore ubiquitous, but I'd never call it "broken".

The most bannable cards right now are Sensei's Divining Top and Lion's Eye Diamond:

Sensei's Divining Top is the crux combos with Counterbalance and fetchlands. Also, it is very time consuming and shows up in many decks. It is bordering on being a reusable Brainstorm that requires no colored mana. I would be a little surprised to actually see it banned, but it is probably the closest of any other cards.

Lion's Eye Diamond suffers from looking a lot like a card that is already banned - Black Lotus. It is also rather confusing from a rules perspective. Further, it makes every speedy combo deck a lot faster and frequently winds up operating like a regular Black Lotus for those decks. However, since it has been around for so long, I do not actually see it being banned now. If anything, combo has been on the downhill since Counterbalance showed up even with Ad Nauseum.

As for notable cards that I do not think are bannable...

Counterbalance would not be used without Sensei's Divining Top. Even with a ton of Brainstorms, there is no way to abuse Counterbalance to the point of it being banned. If anything in this combo gets the axe, it will be Sensei's Divining Top.

Tarmogoyf is a vanilla fatty. If anything, it functions to stifle other cards that are much more degenerate by putting a clock on the opponent. Besides, the real gem of the modern "new blue" deck is Counterbalance, not Tarmogoyf.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MMogg

That being said, solid and broken are two entirely different things. Brainstorm helps blue stay in the game, searching for answers to aggressive decks, but that is not to say that Brainstorm shifts the game (necessarily) in your favour like Ancestral Recall or Fact or Fiction do with their sheer card adavantage. Brainstorm is a solid workhorse, and therefore ubiquitous, but I'd never call it "broken".

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I have never resolved a Brainstorm in which I had much trouble deciding what to put back on top. There are always two weaker cards than everything else in your hand if you have a shuffle effect, and really you only have to have 1 card that is clearly weaker than the rest for many of Brainstorm's applications.

There are many times when I have resolved a Brainstorm and essentially won the game as a result, although sometimes it takes a few turns for that to play out. 3 cards for 1 mana at instant speed is broken no matter how you look at it, and for almost all intents and purposes that is what Brainstorm represents in most of the decks that play it.

I played with Ancestral Recall in almost every deck I played back in the single meta. Even as a one-of it was a back-breaking card when it showed up. Having 4 Brainstorm in a deck is much, much more powerful than having a singleton Ancestral Recall. It is a virtual guarantee that at some point during the game you will suddenly come upon the wealth of 3 fresh cards to refresh your hand as you shuffle away the trash that has built up there in the process.

In a blue deck that often keeps a small number of silver bullets that might or might not be appropriate against a given opponent it is even more powerful because it gives you the chance to swap a dead silver bullet in your hand for a replacement at just the point that that dead card might have begun to really hurt you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FoolofaTook

I have never resolved a Brainstorm in which I had much trouble deciding what to put back on top. There are always two weaker cards than everything else in your hand if you have a shuffle effect, and really you only have to have 1 card that is clearly weaker than the rest for many of Brainstorm's applications.

There are many times when I have resolved a Brainstorm and essentially won the game as a result, although sometimes it takes a few turns for that to play out. 3 cards for 1 mana at instant speed is broken no matter how you look at it, and for almost all intents and purposes that is what Brainstorm represents in most of the decks that play it.

I played with Ancestral Recall in almost every deck I played back in the single meta. Even as a one-of it was a back-breaking card when it showed up. Having 4 Brainstorm in a deck is much, much more powerful than having a singleton Ancestral Recall. It is a virtual guarantee that at some point during the game you will suddenly come upon the wealth of 3 fresh cards to refresh your hand as you shuffle away the trash that has built up there in the process.

In a blue deck that often keeps a small number of silver bullets that might or might not be appropriate against a given opponent it is even more powerful because it gives you the chance to swap a dead silver bullet in your hand for a replacement at just the point that that dead card might have begun to really hurt you.

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What you described sounds like a solid card more than a broken card. You know how many games counterspell won me? But does that necessarily mean it's a broken card? A broken card is Ancestral Recall, and you even confirmed what I'm saying: broken cards are back-breaking, game shifting cards. Hence, Ancestral Recall must be restricted in Vintage and banned in Legacy, by the sheer nature of its brokenness. It's not debatable because anyone who has played it knows its power. Now, you cannot say the same thing at all about Brainstorm. It doesn't even give you card advantage! :eek: In order to maximize what you are saying about Brainstorm (that is, get rid of the chaff), you need to run fetchlands (something decks like MUC would and should not do). I remember pre-fetchland Brainstorm being an ok choice, but I also remember drawing chaff for the next two turns. :laugh:

Sorry, I'm still unconvinced that Brainstorm is anything more than a really good and efficient – hell, maybe even great – card, but certainly not broken.

Speaking of broken . . . I remember playing against a casual player who didn't believe in the banned and restricted rules, so he played with 4 Demonic Tutor. Upon learning this, I proceeded to play a deck with multiple Library of Alexandria! :laugh: Holy brokenness! Sorry, just had to share that moment of brokenness. Good times.

Card must not be broken to be banned. Like The Dragon or Goblin Recruiter.

The problem with Brainstorm (my vote) is that it is IMHO just the card that makes blue too powerfull compared to other colors thus making the format too gay :tongue:.
Also there are lots of other cantrips like Opt or Serum Visions that are unplayable because of Brainstorm (reminds Goyf story).

Second candidate is Top because it's boring to watch people spinning it and because it works with Counterbalance making blue stronger, but unlike Brainstorm, Top is available to all colors and that makes it more balanced than Brainstorm.

Well, I for one would like to see some cards come off the banned list,
like:

Land Tax (parfait FTW)

Worldgorger Dragon (seriouslym G4 is the only reason to not unban it, and when something is so bad you have to go to G4 and 5 I don't think it will win or warp the format much)

Metal Worker (seriously, even welder is more powerful for stax and hardly see's play)

Some other irrelevant outdated stuff.

For banning I would like to see CB banned (top can go in anny deck and give's midrange a good amount of consistancy) but cince CB+SDT keeps combo in check I think And nauseam and/or LED would need to get hit by he banhammer since they would go out of controll otherzise

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eq.firemind

Cards may not be broken to be banned. Like The Dragon or Goblin Recruiter.

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Fixed and QFT.

Speaking of brokenness, Sensei's Diving Top, Force of Will and Goblin Lackey rank higher than Brainstorm. Hammering Top would not contribute to the color balance while banning Lackey would strengthen blue. Loads of combo pieces would be banned without FoW.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DrJones

Mark Rosewater also said that they wouldn't make random discard anymore, just before the reprint of Hypnotic Specter.

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Quote him. I dare you.

I'm 99.999(...)99 % sure he used the same and only reasonable way to say something like that, ie among the lines of : "we're now much more cautious about doing things that way. Of course [for the people that never get what you say if you don't point it out explicitly at least three times] i'm not saying it will never happen again, just that you can expect it to be quite rare".

Also, he even probably said this "about making new cards", not about fan-favorites and all-time classics like Hypnotic Specter, although I'm not as sure of this final point.

I see Top banned, for reason stated before.

Then i see:
Tax
Worker

Off the list. And maybe also Druid. Worker suck, Tax also, and Druid is too slow and vulnerable for the current format. Also, if it were viable i wouldn't mind to see a new combo in the format. Note that also Druid would be so easily hateable that it wouldn't never pose a threat to the format.

This thread used to be 3 pages long; however, I just deleted all useless posts, one-line posts, two-line posts, posts that could have been PMs, and generally terri-bad posts.

Now the thread is just a page. Hmmm.

I can remember him speaking about random discard, too.
I have no quote right now, but he spoke about how "unfun" it is to play against random discard, and therefore they don't want to do it in the future, because Magic is a game about fun.
And yes, it was before 9th edition Hyppie reprint.

Surely he said something about the lines like yours... that it would only be rare case blabla...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gheizen64

I see Top banned, for reason stated before.

Then i see:
Tax
Worker

Off the list. And maybe also Druid. Worker suck, Tax also, and Druid is too slow and vulnerable for the current format. Also, if it were viable i wouldn't mind to see a new combo in the format. Note that also Druid would be so easily hateable that it wouldn't never pose a threat to the format.

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Ad dragon to that list, there's no reason to keep that card on the list (there are like 99999999999999999999 ways to deal with it)

Worker would be a sweet toy for my stax list (like welder if it would live to see my next turn), and the druid might just make cephalid breakfast Tier 2, same for land tax and Quin/Wombat....

Nothing to frightning if you ask me.


Seriously, CB+Top are the things that keep combo in check, who the hell would be stupid enoug to ban SDT (or CB) without banning some part of a combo engine like LED and Nauseam.

2nd Top by itself is not a problem, I remember picking up my SDT's for half a buck each because they sayd "it costed mana every turn" and it only became populair with CB. At least you could run top in decks that don't use CB.

To conclude this: if you hate CB+SDt ban the CB, since other then the time issue SDT isn't dangerous by itself.

Quote:

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To conclude this: if you hate CB+SDt ban the CB, since other then the time issue SDT isn't dangerous by itself.

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This is just plain wrong, saying deal with CB is pretty ignorant of how strong top is. Theres a reason in the tempo vs CT/Balance matchups the card force isnt balance but top. Top turns fetchlands into near brainstorms turns counter balance into a lock and replaces itself when someone trys to kill it(barring grip) Top is the strongest card (aside from force/goyf and maby brainstorm) in the average counterbalance deck not balance.

Also the card that stops combo is definately not Countertop its force daze and goyf alongside the other hosers (3sphear discard and chalice)

While my predictions will probably pretty accurate (see page 1 important formats unchanged, irrelivant casual formats infinate +24 changes) I wouldnt mind tax comming off the list simply because while it would be very good it would not be better than say counter/top although it may create problems with the actual top card I doubt it would be a major issue.

In any event I dont see anything on or off the list as problematic because they arent THAT stupid they at least try to make things balanced and they are pretty good at it now a days.

I think I can speak for the majority of Storm combo players that CB+Top is really the only thing keeping Storm in check right now. Personally, I feel confident going into a match-up against anything with blue but without CounterTop. If CounterTop is taken off the map (by either banning CB or Top), and with Silence being recently printed, Storm combo would RULE.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by overseer1234

Seriously, CB+Top are the things that keep combo in check, who the hell would be stupid enoug to ban SDT (or CB) without banning some part of a combo engine like LED and Nauseam.

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Then please tell us, which cards kept combo in check before the printing and rise of CB? Yes, AN gave a boost to some combo decks after CB's printing, but not each combo deck plays AN. FoW/Discard/Chant/Chalice/Trinisphere/... should be enough, shouldn't it?
Two+ years ago, it worked, too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by overseer1234

To conclude this: if you hate CB+SDt ban the CB, since other then the time issue SDT isn't dangerous by itself.

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Well it's still a Ponder every turn (with fetchies).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by undone

This is just plain wrong, saying deal with CB is pretty ignorant of how strong top is. Theres a reason in the tempo vs CT/Balance matchups the card force isnt balance but top. Top turns fetchlands into near brainstorms turns counter balance into a lock and replaces itself when someone trys to kill it(barring grip) Top is the strongest card (aside from force/goyf and maby brainstorm) in the average counterbalance deck not balance.

Also the card that stops combo is definately not Countertop its force daze and goyf alongside the other hosers (3sphear discard and chalice).

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Then please explain me why it took more then 2 years for top to see this much competitive play in legacy and was considered to slow for a long time.

Then coldsnap was released and CB+Top saw play in extended, and a while after that it saw play in legacy.

Seriously the card is not that broken, it give's good draw selection in almost the same matter that brainstorm does, bit it can be used in anny collor.

Together with CB on the other hand it act's as a one sided chalice of the void that who's counters can be changed at wil going from 0 to 5 in some cases....

Tell me why SDT is the problem here since it really wasn't this populair before Cb was printed... if it was as broken as you say then EVERY deck in legacy would run 4 + fetch, this clearly isn't the case ATM.

The ban wouldn't be because Top is broken but because of the amount of time it takes up.

Top keeps combo in check. Therefor it cannot be banned without alot of other cards that will need a ban. Tarmogoyf is the most bannable because banning Tarmogoyf would have the least effect on meta diversity: a meta with Tarmogoyf is diverse, a meta without Tarmogoyf is diverse.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by overseer1234

Then please explain me why it took more then 2 years for top to see this much competitive play in legacy and was considered to slow for a long time.

Then coldsnap was released and CB+Top saw play in extended, and a while after that it saw play in legacy.

Seriously the card is not that broken, it give's good draw selection in almost the same matter that brainstorm does, bit it can be used in anny collor.

Together with CB on the other hand it act's as a one sided chalice of the void that who's counters can be changed at wil going from 0 to 5 in some cases....

Tell me why SDT is the problem here since it really wasn't this populair before Cb was printed... if it was as broken as you say then EVERY deck in legacy would run 4 + fetch, this clearly isn't the case ATM.

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Some cards just pass belong the radar and it's only after a time that someone discovers their true potential. This happens even with combinations that have been available like forever. Without entering in debates about the bannability of the divining top, I think you need a better argument to defend your line of thinking.

Also, a rethoric question... there are tons of cards that keep storm combo in check, but what keeps aggro-control in check when it becomes too powerful?

To ban Top is my choice also. Gets card quality every turn, no card disadvantadge for a more than acceptable cost (uncoloured mana), undestructible except for kgrip, and can slow games ad infinitum to get the draw. Also, combining it with fetchlands and/or shuffle effect makes it overpowered definetely

What I would do:

Unban Dream Halls
Unban Earthcraft
Unban Entomb
Unban Frantic Search
Unban Goblin Recruiter
Unban Grim Monolith
Unban Gush
Unban Hermit Druid
Unban Illusionary Mask
Unban Land Tax
Unban Metalworker
Unban Mind Twist
Unban Time Spiral
Unban Worldgorger Dragon

What will happen:

No changes.

I honestly only think that SDT would be banned, and for the same reasons it was in Extended: it takes up too much time and drags out the match with constant card adjustments.

I might see Lion's Eye Diamond getting banned due to the relative power it could wield in future combo decks.

Otherwise, nothing really.


As for what will likely happen? Nothing, really.

I could kind of agree with SDT's banning for time. Doubt it happens though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Skeggi

Tarmogoyf is the most bannable because banning Tarmogoyf would have the least effect on meta diversity: a meta with Tarmogoyf is diverse, a meta without Tarmogoyf is diverse.

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This is also true of Hill Giant.

You know the really NEED to ban top, since their reason for banning it in Extended was time reasons, it's the exact same in Legacy. I still think Wizards used "time restrictions" as a lame excuse to ban Counter Top in Extended, as can be seen by it's existence in Vintage and Legacy.

Other than that, there are some things that could come off the list, and i think we might see 1-2 cards come off. But nothing is getting banned.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kuma

What I would do:


Unban Goblin Recruiter

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Are you serious? Do you really want a tribal-saturated meta to become even more so? Or do you just want to play Food Chain Goblins again...

Hate to say it, but the only real reason we can all agree that SDT would be banned is for time reason, when we all really know we simply hate losing to Counterbalance/Top blowout. In fact, Top isn't nearly as bad in decks that don't try to stop you from casting anything as they are the CB decks. It definitly doesn't take up as much time in those decks either.

I still assert my previously deleted post: Top gives so many opportunities to cheat when the consequences are so trivial since the new M10 rules regarding game rules violations.

Just think how many times a "Top" deck goes on autopilot and assumes SDT is in play and looks at the three cards. I'm willing to wager that it happens more than enough to make it a concern for judges.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kuma

What I would do:

Unban Dream Halls
Unban Earthcraft
Unban Entomb
Unban Frantic Search
Unban Goblin Recruiter
Unban Grim Monolith
Unban Gush
Unban Hermit Druid
Unban Illusionary Mask
Unban Land Tax
Unban Metalworker
Unban Mind Twist
Unban Time Spiral
Unban Worldgorger Dragon

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You clearly have no clue about how these cards work. The safer choices would be Dream Halls, Entomb, Grim Monolith, Illusionary Mask, Mind Twist, and argueably Land Tax.

The rest are highly and consistently abuseable. Many of the rest of the cards provide an effect for zero, or positive net mana simply on their own.

To wit:
Earthcraft - Turn 1 Nettle Sentinel, Turn 2 Earthcraft, go off. 1 card combo.
Frantic Search - makes Spring Tide a true contender (adds mana + card filtering), secondary uses in reanimator decks
Goblin Recruiter - see GP San Diego 2003. Goblin Combo FTW!
Hermit Druid - 1 card combo
Metalworker - ok, this one is weak without Tinker, but it has potential for abuse
Time Spiral - like TEPS needs more enablers
Worldgorger Dragon - obv.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rukcus

Hate to say it, but the only real reason we can all agree that SDT would be banned is for time reason, when we all really know we simply hate losing to Counterbalance/Top blowout. In fact, Top isn't nearly as bad in decks that don't try to stop you from casting anything as they are the CB decks. It definitly doesn't take up as much time in those decks either.

I still assert my previously deleted post: Top gives so many opportunities to cheat when the consequences are so trivial since the new M10 rules regarding game rules violations.

Just think how many times a "Top" deck goes on autopilot and assumes SDT is in play and looks at the three cards. I'm willing to wager that it happens more than enough to make it a concern for judges.

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I've to agree that I've got my share of "Top" players on MWS shuffling their libraries "by mistake", or trying to activate it without having mana to do so. It gets tiresome. :frown:

Edit: I'd love to play Metalworker + Myr Incubator in legacy. :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DrJones

Some cards just pass belong the radar and it's only after a time that someone discovers their true potential. This happens even with combinations that have been available like forever. Without entering in debates about the bannability of the divining top, I think you need a better argument to defend your line of thinking.

Also, a rethoric question... there are tons of cards that keep storm combo in check, but what keeps aggro-control in check when it becomes too powerful?

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Ichorid.

Sorry i know it was rethorical but I couldnt resist.

Top is overwhelmingly too good with fetch lands, it is HIGHLY weakened by the lack of them.

I dont think it will be banned. I think no changes will occur (MABY something will come off) but with a new set comming around the bend we should get 1/2 playables for the format so I am not worried.

It won't happen, but I'd love to see Grim Monolith and Metalworker unbanned, so we could have a viable prison deck in the format.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rukcus

Earthcraft - Turn 1 Nettle Sentinel, Turn 2 Earthcraft, go off. 1 card combo.
Frantic Search - makes Spring Tide a true contender (adds mana + card filtering), secondary uses in reanimator decks
Goblin Recruiter - see GP San Diego 2003. Goblin Combo FTW!
Hermit Druid - 1 card combo
Metalworker - ok, this one is weak without Tinker, but it has potential for abuse
Time Spiral - like TEPS needs more enablers
Worldgorger Dragon - obv.

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Okay, I'll bite: how is Earthcraft a one card combo (considering that you've already established it to be anything but?) And how is WGD obvious without the enablers to which it was accustomed? Actually, most of your complaints about those cards are either off the mark on their real strength or sky-is-falling concerns.