All B/R update speculation.

[Mr. Safety]

You know it's 2018 and Modern is a different format right? Apples and oranges. Regardless, I'm sure if you tried that for 2012 for Legacy, you would probably be able to cobble together a starter deck for legacy.

Let's do it:

https://mtgtop8.com/topcards

I put in the filter of most played cards for all decks in 2012, for reference.

Card Name Decks Avg

Page 1 (Tier 1)

Brainstorm 61.5 % 4.0
Force of Will 57.3 % 3.8
Wasteland 54.1 % 3.6
Misty Rainforest 46.8 % 2.8
Ponder 42.1 % 3.4
Scalding Tarn 36.9 % 3.0
Polluted Delta 35.3 % 2.9
Swords to Plowshares 35.1 % 3.9
Volcanic Island 34.3 % 2.6
Flooded Strand 32.4 % 3.1
Karakas 32.2 % 1.2
Spell Pierce 32.2 % 2.7
Daze 30.3 % 3.4
Tropical Island 28.6 % 2.8
Jace, the Mind Sculptor 26.8 % 2.8
Snapcaster Mage 24.5 % 3.0
Umezawa's Jitte 24.5 % 1.3
Tarmogoyf 23.8 % 3.5
Underground Sea 22.9 % 2.7
Tundra 22.8 % 3.1

Page 2 (tier 2)

Stoneforge Mystic 21.7 % 3.4
Lightning Bolt 21.0 % 3.9
Vendilion Clique 20.8 % 1.9
Delver of Secrets 20.0 % 4.0
Sensei's Divining Top 18.8 % 2.8
Spell Snare 18.8 % 2.6
Scavenging Ooze 18.5 % 1.6
Batterskull 16.6 % 1.0
Green Sun's Zenith 16.6 % 3.6
Savannah 16.5 % 2.7
Windswept Heath 16.5 % 3.3
Counterspell 16.1 % 1.7
Verdant Catacombs 16.1 % 2.7
Wooded Foothills 15.2 % 2.3
Thoughtseize 14.9 % 2.4
Nimble Mongoose 14.8 % 3.8
Dryad Arbor 14.5 % 1.0
Knight of the Reliquary 12.9 % 3.9
Sylvan Library 12.7 % 1.3
Stifle 12.6 %


Have fun with Bant Stoneblade-ish deck. I'm sure it would be a fine starter deck.

Let's do it for Modern:

https://mtgtop8.com/topcards

Page 1 (tier 1)

Misty Rainforest 44.5 % 2.9
Scalding Tarn 35.7 % 3.5
Lightning Bolt 35.2 % 3.9
Stomping Ground 33.6 % 1.2
Steam Vents 29.6 % 2.0
Verdant Catacombs 29.4 % 3.8
Marsh Flats 28.8 % 2.3
Path to Exile 27.6 % 3.6
Overgrown Tomb 25.4 % 1.6
Arid Mesa 25.3 % 3.0
Tarmogoyf 24.7 % 3.9
Kitchen Finks 24.0 % 3.1
Serum Visions 23.8 % 3.8
Snapcaster Mage 23.0 % 3.6
Inquisition of Kozilek 22.6 % 3.2
Blood Crypt 21.0 % 1.4
Hallowed Fountain 19.6 % 1.7
Dark Confidant 19.0 % 3.9
Blackcleave Cliffs 18.7 % 3.9
Thoughtseize 18.1 % 2.4

Page 2 (tier 2)

Mana Leak 17.7 % 3.3
Breeding Pool 17.2 % 1.3
Temple Garden 16.7 % 1.3
Liliana of the Veil 16.4 % 3.2
Vendilion Clique 15.8 % 2.5
Bloodbraid Elf 15.7 % 4.0
Remand 15.7 % 3.4
Treetop Village 15.1 % 3.1
Cryptic Command 14.8 % 2.6
Inkmoth Nexus 14.1 % 3.7
Sacred Foundry 14.0 % 1.2
Spell Snare 13.9 % 2.9
Raging Ravine 13.4 % 2.3
Noble Hierarch 13.0 % 3.0
Spellskite 12.8 % 1.7
Terminate 12.7 % 2.0
Twilight Mire 12.5 % 1.9
Delver of Secrets 12.0 % 4.0
Grim Lavamancer 12.0 % 2.5
Birds of Paradise 12.0 % 3.7

Take your pick, Jund or some combination of mid-range good stuff. Would make a fine starter deck for modern. Look, even Bloodbraid Elf is legal again without Deathrite Shaman! It's actually a pretty spot-on call. I might do this...EDIT: This was sarcasm fyi...

[Amazingxkcd]

new deck building strategy: Just make adjusting piles completely based on popularity %s, update every month

[Zulabnar]

Good-stuff cards will always see more play than narrow cards, so when the top performing deck uses these cards, they are going to be everywhere. If the top performing deck were playing fewer all-purpose versatile cards (say Storm, D&T, Miracles, or whatever), its cards would not see as much play in other decks.

Infact what we are writing is that some cards power level is huge. It means that If You want to win You have to chose first of alla BRAINSTORM because the power level of this card is awesome compared to other cards.

This is a tautology. "If you take all the most played cards and put them into a list, then made a deck out of those cards, it would resemble the most played deck." The list is generated from the most played decks and the cards that populate those decks.

that's not true. There are card COMMON to the most played decks. Infact You find earlier Jace or Thoughtseize than Gurmag.

The reality is that some cards are too damn good (Overpowered) to play without if You want to win, otherwise You can play other decks. Combo. Aggro is not possible.

Brainstorm is the most powerfull and so most played card . Is good for control, tempo, aggro\control, combo etc. And ponder is following.

Brainstorm is overpowered because it let You draw 3 and keep all those 3 cards until You have other 2 to put on top of the deck

You clean your hand, removing the wood You draw in start 7.
You have 2 lands in hand ? play brainstorm and find jace fow and blue card? wow, from shit to stars.
You have an average hand with brainstorm, trasnform it and shiuffle with a fetch.
Oppo plays duress\tseize\cabal, let me cover my bomb with brainstorm
I have a land and a brainstorm in my starting 7? ok i keep

Without the interaction with fetchland brainstorm will not be so powerfull, but with this interaction given, (or ban all the fetchlands?) brainstorm is too overpowered. This is why a ban is the correct thing to do.

[Kap'n Cook]

You clean your hand, removing the wood You draw in start 7.
You have 2 lands in hand ? play brainstorm and find jace fow and blue card? wow, from shit to stars.
You have an average hand with brainstorm, trasnform it and shiuffle with a fetch.
Oppo plays duress\tseize\cabal, let me cover my bomb with brainstorm
I have a land and a brainstorm in my starting 7? ok i keep

What a brainstorm do? Draw card and activate on draw effects fix hand, removing woods.

new deck building strategy: Just make adjusting piles completely based on popularity %s, update every month

We are all witnesses to the next GP Champion right here.

[Amazingxkcd]

Now I just need a Legacy GP in the Chicagoland area

[Crimhead]

Infact what we are writing is that some cards power level is huge. It means that If You want to win You have to chose first of alla BRAINSTORM because the power level of this card is awesome compared to other cards.

Or one of the established tier decks that don't run Brainstorm.

[Zulabnar]

Or one of the established tier decks that don't run Brainstorm.

http://tcdecks.net/metagame.php?form...y&fecha=2018-3

sum the number and tell me if is more probable if i play brainsotrm or not to be in t8.

[Claymore]

The question was if the top 1/3rd of decks would share the same 48-52 cards. Still, this isn't looking at individual deck lists, but just overall card usage from a given data set. If you drilled down into the diverse spread 4c delver, Slower 4c Delver, BUG delver, Grixis Delver, and Miracles, then things might look different.

2018 Legacy:

Brainstorm 57.7 % 4.0
Ponder 54.2 % 3.8
Force of Will 51.9 % 3.9
Polluted Delta 49.9 % 3.2
Wasteland 44.6 % 3.7
Volcanic Island 42.1 % 2.2
Deathrite Shaman 40.1 % 3.9
Tropical Island 39.2 % 1.4
Underground Sea 38.9 % 2.5
Misty Rainforest 38.1 % 2.4
Scalding Tarn 34.4 % 2.8

Rounded up, 34/60

2012 Legacy:

Brainstorm 61.5 % 4.0
Force of Will 57.3 % 3.8
Wasteland 54.1 % 3.6
Misty Rainforest 46.8 % 2.8
Ponder 42.1 % 3.4
Scalding Tarn 36.9 % 3.0
Polluted Delta 35.3 % 2.9
Swords to Plowshares 35.1 % 3.9
Volcanic Island 34.3 % 2.6

31 cards

Modern:

Misty Rainforest 44.5 % 2.9
Scalding Tarn 35.7 % 3.5
Lightning Bolt 35.2 % 3.9
Stomping Ground 33.6 % 1.2

11 cards...Bolt being the only distinct card. Ban Lightning Bolt.

So you could say that the majority Legacy has been stagnant since 2012, only shifting really Swords for DRS (Not looking at lands). I'm actually surprised at that.

What's further interesting is I'd assume that shell was Delver, but Delver only goes from 20% in 2012 to 22% in 2018.

Hard to say really, since once you get data and start digging into it, there's all sorts of ways to interpret and sell your own view point.

[Crimhead]

http://tcdecks.net/metagame.php?form...y&fecha=2018-3

sum the number and tell me if is more probable if i play brainsotrm or not to be in t8.

• BS's success is spread over a lot more decks. eg, the fact that Miracles also plays BS does not make, eg, S&T somehow more likely to place.
• Top-8 lists without conversion rates do not provide a statistical bases for the likleyhood of an individual entrant placing with that deck.
• How many times has this been pointed out? Yawn.

[Lemnear]

What's further interesting is I'd assume that shell was Delver, but Delver only goes from 20% in 2012 to 22% in 2018.

Part if the reason is that many DRS decks skip the fragile Delver thanks to the pretty common (pseudo-)mirrors in the current meta and tend to different creatures like snapcaster, TNN, Pyromancer which Bolt & Co can't trade even with

[Crimhead]

http://tcdecks.net/metagame.php?form...y&fecha=2018-3

sum the number and tell me if is more probable if i play brainsotrm or not to be in t8.

I'd like to address this once more because it comes up a lot and it's among the most erroneous things I see in print (edited for civility).

Let's go back 5 or 6 years to the time that Jund was losing much of it's meta share to to Shardless. When that shift happened, BS started showing up a little more in the top8s, and GSZ a little less. Would you conclude that, eg, Elves had gotten worse because GSZ has become an objectively weaker card in every deck that runs it?

I sure hope not. BS went up and GSZ goes down precisely because Shardless is better than Jund. That shift does not mean that every other GSZ deck has become a bigger dog, and that other BS decks become more favoured. Decks will get better or worse because the meta changed and they see different pairings. But your deck never gets better or worse based on whether or not other good decks play similar cards.

Essentially, people talk about the probability of winning with a BS deck as the sum of the probabilities of winning with every BS deck.It doesn't work like that. You have to consider the probability of winning with each individual deck, because an individual deck is all you ever get to get to play. You can't play every BS deck simultaneously; and you don't get to absorb the chance of winning with a different deck and add it to your chance of winning with the deck you actually chose.

[Nielsie]

You know it's 2018 and Modern is a different format right? Apples and oranges. Regardless, I'm sure if you tried that for 2012 for Legacy, you would probably be able to cobble together a starter deck for legacy.

You were the one throwing around expensive words like tautology, so I tried it for different years and different formats. 2012's most played cards couldn't just be scooped up into 1 pile and be called a deck, unless you wanted to play some weird shit with plows, goyfs, delvers, jaces and some random karakas... So, no, I am not convinced. 2018's most played cards just show how badly homogonized legacy has become.

[BirdsOfParadise]

Agreed that it's not a tautology. If the four most played decks were 33% Goblins, 27% Merfolk, 20% Sneak & Show, and 20% BR Reanimator, the most played spells piled together would build a Vial Goblins deck that ran Force of Will (common in Merfolk and Sneak & Show) and Griselbrand (common in Sneak & Show and BR Reanimator), possibly with fringe Goblin slots being replaced by stock Merfolk slots. Obviously that deck would be awful. Whatever it means that 2018 Legacy's top cards pile is a plausible Delver deck, it's not a tautology given only that Delver is the most played deck.

[Crimhead]

Agreed that it's not a tautology. If the four most played decks were 33% Goblins, 27% Merfolk, 20% Sneak & Show, and 20% BR Reanimator, the most played spells piled together would build a Vial Goblins deck that ran Force of Will (common in Merfolk and Sneak & Show) and Griselbrand (common in Sneak & Show and BR Reanimator), possibly with fringe Goblin slots being replaced by stock Merfolk slots. Obviously that deck would be awful. Whatever it means that 2018 Legacy's top cards pile is a plausible Delver deck, it's not a tautology given only that Delver is the most played deck.

I got one. What if the meta were:
33% Goblins
27% S&T
20% Team America
20% Miracles

The most played cards are something like 67% FOW, BS, Ponder.

Obviously in that meta you are better off playing BS. 67% of all winning lists play it! If you don't play blue, you are handicapping yourself.


See what happens when you suck at math? See how math =/= just arithmetic?

Edit:
Switch that up so that Gobos are 27% and S&T is 33%. In this meta it is true that you are better off playing BS/FOW*, but only if you are playing them in one specific shell. The idea that other FoW/BS decks are worse that goblins is false; and the idea that rogue decks or brews with BS > rogue decks or brews w/o BS is pure conjecture.

*assuming top-8 penetration is proportional to conversion rates (which in practise it surely never is).

[Watersaw]

I got one. What if the meta were:
33% Goblins
27% S&T
20% Team America
20% Miracles

The most played cards are something like 67% FOW, BS, Ponder.

Obviously in that meta you are better off playing BS. 67% of all winning lists play it! If you don't play blue, you are handicapping yourself.


See what happens when you suck at math? See how math =/= just arithmetic?

Edit:
Switch that up so that Gobos are 27% and S&T is 33%. In this meta it is true that you are better off playing BS/FOW*, but only if you are playing them in one specific shell. The idea that other FoW/BS decks are worse that goblins is false; and the idea that rogue decks or brews with BS > rogue decks or brews w/o BS is pure conjecture.

*assuming top-8 penetration is proportional to conversion rates (which in practise it surely never is).

Let's not deal in hypothetical thought-experiments. These prove nothing and frankly a lot of people WOULD be happy if goblins stood a decent chance against 67% of the field.

The best deck as of now is Grixis Delver. The cards in Grixis Delver are individually powerful enough that they are among the most played in the format.

[Mr. Safety]

You were the one throwing around expensive words like tautology, so I tried it for different years and different formats. 2012's most played cards couldn't just be scooped up into 1 pile and be called a deck, unless you wanted to play some weird shit with plows, goyfs, delvers, jaces and some random karakas... So, no, I am not convinced. 2018's most played cards just show how badly homogonized legacy has become.

I think we are actually agreeing on this...but with just a different perspective. I'm not saying the format isn't homogenized (it is.) Grixis Delver and Czech Pile share a lot of the same cards, regardless of strategic difference. I guess the point I'm arguing is: so what? So the format is homogenized, this isn't breaking news. Hasn't it been said like a million times that 'there will always be a best deck, best cards, yadda yadda, because competitive format, etc.'. The deeper the format, the more homogenization you'll get (see: Vintage.)

[Hanni]

I guess I just don't get all of the butthurt about certain cards seeing a higher % than other cards. This will always happen. An eternal format is always going to revolve around the most powerful and efficient cards ever printed. No amount of bannings will change this; all bannings do is change which ones become the highest %.

There will always be a best deck. There will always be cards that see more play than everything else.

Are people really that disatisfied with games of Legacy? I feel like we are in a sweet spot where games tend to be very interactive and enjoyable. I'd much rather have our current state of affairs than a rock-paper-scissors format, or a format with mostly linear decks where matchups are decided based on what you sideboarded for.

There are tons of unique decks and strategies that you can't find anywhere else but Legacy. Tons of decks and strategies are competitive and viable, despite not being flavor of the month. Even if it is much more difficult to do these day, there is still plenty of room for innovation and brewing.

Why are people so upset with the state of the format right now? Because blue is better than the other colors? Welcome to eternal formats.

[Mr. Safety]

I guess I just don't get all of the butthurt about certain cards seeing a higher % than other cards. This will always happen. An eternal format is always going to revolve around the most powerful and efficient cards ever printed. No amount of bannings will change this; all bannings do is change which ones become the highest %.

There will always be a best deck. There will always be cards that see more play than everything else.

Are people really that disatisfied with games of Legacy? I feel like we are in a sweet spot where games tend to be very interactive and enjoyable. I'd much rather have our current state of affairs than a rock-paper-scissors format, or a format with mostly linear decks where matchups are decided based on what you sideboarded for.

There are tons of unique decks and strategies that you can't find anywhere else but Legacy. Tons of decks and strategies are competitive and viable, despite not being flavor of the month. Even if it much more difficult to do these day, there is still plenty of room for innovation and brewing.

Why are people so upset with the state of the format right now? Because blue is better than the other colors? Welcome to eternal formats.

Thank you for this, even though it's been said many times before. I love the format, interaction, how games play out.

Seriously, will you be my friend?

Yes []
No []

[Claymore]

The problem is that the format is the same 48-52 card shell, for over half of the matches you'll play. Interactive, yes. But you know how every single game is played out. And play it out the exact same way every round. Fun, sure. But eventually you get tired of the redundancy every single game, fighting against T1 DRS, opponent (or yourself) resolving Brainstorm/Ponder/Preordain several times a turn, discard into removal into countermagic into who can top deck and keep a Delver/Deathrite/True Name on the battlefield long enough to close out.

Then week after week of over half the matches playing out the same way, eventually you've seen everything that this solved format has to offer and you move on.

Coverage of Legacy events (SCG, GPs) get a ton of criticism for always showing a Deathrite Delver match/mirror, but that's just what Legacy is now.

[taconaut]

I guess I just don't get all of the butthurt about certain cards seeing a higher % than other cards. This will always happen. An eternal format is always going to revolve around the most powerful and efficient cards ever printed. No amount of bannings will change this; all bannings do is change which ones become the highest %.

There will always be a best deck. There will always be cards that see more play than everything else.

Are people really that disatisfied with games of Legacy? I feel like we are in a sweet spot where games tend to be very interactive and enjoyable. I'd much rather have our current state of affairs than a rock-paper-scissors format, or a format with mostly linear decks where matchups are decided based on what you sideboarded for.

There are tons of unique decks and strategies that you can't find anywhere else but Legacy. Tons of decks and strategies are competitive and viable, despite not being flavor of the month. Even if it is much more difficult to do these day, there is still plenty of room for innovation and brewing.

Why are people so upset with the state of the format right now? Because blue is better than the other colors? Welcome to eternal formats.

I also want to agree with all of this, and add: "I'd much rather have our current state of affairs than a rock-paper-scissors format, or a format with mostly linear decks where matchups are decided based on what you sideboarded for and variance."

Cantrips make it more likely that people get to play Magic.

The problem is that the format is the same 48-52 card shell, for over half of the matches you'll play. Interactive, yes. But you know how every single game is played out. And play it out the exact same way every round. Fun, sure. But eventually you get tired of the redundancy every single game, fighting against T1 DRS, opponent (or yourself) resolving Brainstorm/Ponder/Preordain several times a turn, discard into removal into countermagic into who can top deck and keep a Delver/Deathrite/True Name on the battlefield long enough to close out.

Then week after week of over half the matches playing out the same way, eventually you've seen everything that this solved format has to offer and you move on.

Coverage of Legacy events (SCG, GPs) get a ton of criticism for always showing a Deathrite Delver match/mirror, but that's just what Legacy is now.

I think this is overstated - plenty of people I play against aren't on Czech or Grixis. Sure, many of them are, but not certainly not over half. You never play against DNT/Lands/Storm/ANT/Miracles/Eldrazi/SNT/Elves/Maverick/Aluren/Food Chain? I would not be embarrassed to bring any of those decks to a Legacy event, and certainly you could too.

Also, I think the coverage issue is actually distinct from the diversity issue - whoever is providing coverage chooses what to show, so it's not always representative of the format in the way a random sampling would be. At some level, casters may choose to put more Delver mirrors up because that's what's popular; especially for WOTC, they may want to highlight the fair decks Legacy has to offer, because it might encourage people to buy in/watch that only usually play Modern or Standard, where creature battles rule the day. It's kinda like how they do the 5-0 league reports now - you only get to see the ones they choose to show.