All B/R update speculation.

[Star|Scream]

All Talpa argument's are personal arguments, theory that has to be proven (italy metagame data where are? prove wiht an aggregate data please) and his own percpetion so it's just moving the focus from the point.



At the moment the point is:

Is blue shell always in more than 50% of the top8? why? Blue is historically the best color in magic, and this is an eternal format. Why wouldn't you want to play the best cards? Also FOW gives you a fighting chance game 1 against almost any deck.
Is blue shell chosen by more player than other shells? why?Blue is historically the best color in magic, and this is an eternal format. Why wouldn't you want to play the best cards? Also FOW gives you a fighting chance game 1 against almost any deck.
Is the format wrapped around blue shell? why?Blue is historically the best color in magic, and this is an eternal format. Why wouldn't you want to play the best cards? Also FOW gives you a fighting chance game 1 against almost any deck.

[talpa]

All Talpa argument's are personal arguments, theory that has to be proven (italy metagame data where are?

LOL Again: just posted

just moving the focus from the point.

You are. If you had wrote "blue is good" I wouldn't have bothered responding. But you said "this and this are unplayable color pairs". That was wrong obviously. And I just refuted that (and easily so)

Trends in Magic are not hard to spot. Card Prices, deck retention, win percentages

If you want to share it could be interesting thanks.
But I still don't think those kind of trends indicate so easily what the "best" deck is.
I agree miracle was OP and deserved a ban. But for example our (from Italy) perception was completely different from what you just summarized. You were "late" from our POV on each phase of the deck life. First of all we had deck with terminus as soon as it was printed. We identified the 4ponder list as the best quite soon. We had a few among the greatest players winning everything with that deck and others developed early a personal and strong hate against the deck. We hoped for a ban two years before it happened; when they finally hit top we were actually no longer expecting and both metaga and opposing deck lists were adapted to confront miracle dominance and had been so for long time.

[Dice_Box]

If you want to share it could be interesting thanks.
But I still don't think those kind of trends indicate so easily what the "best" deck is.
I agree miracle was OP and deserved a ban. But for example our (from Italy) perception was completely different from what you just summarized. You were "late" from our POV on each phase of the deck life. First of all we had deck with terminus as soon as it was printed. We identified the 4ponder list as the best quite soon. We had a few among the greatest players and others developed early an hate against the deck. We hoped for a ban two years before it happened; when they finally hit top we were actually no longer expecting and both metaga and opposing deck lists were adapted to confront miracle dominance and had been so for long time.

I was not debating the best deck point, just that these trends are easy to see. Standard and price changes almost always show the way things are going. I can tell you what is likely to be the most popular deck in Standard just by looking at inflections in price data. Not that I can tell you what that deck would itself be doing. That would mean giving a shit about Standard and I don't.

As for late on the data points, likely yes. But I was using only one set of data, my DTB spreadsheet without looking at lists themselves, how they changed or other external factors that would be used to adjust ones understanding of the situation. Now imagine your a 22 year old kid playing Standard hopping to make it big, your going to be tuned into all these other data points. (That I doubt you or I personally give a shit about, because who's trying to go pro playing Legacy?) Hell just think about the amount of data teams pour over before a PT. Testing and looking at the lines. So much shit in such a small space.

Lastly, I am not talking about what needed a ban, just the data. I picked Miracles because it has a defined start and end point on my data that makes for the cleanest point of reference, not to make a statement on the deck itself.

Spread sheet link. Its all really basic and public info. There is nothing here that should be new to anyone but the data is all in one place. I do like this sheet.

[Lemnear]

If other colors had spells to the level of blues spells, then blue wouldn't be dominant, because the creatures are all about the same now, and are waaaay ahead of what they used to be.

Sorry to jump in here, but I don't think this is true. I would even claim otherwise and call the available, format-relevant blue creatures these days BETTER than most you find in other colors.

It's quite hard to find anything better than Delver, Snapcaster, TNN, Leovold, etc in their respective roles without blue mana symbol.

So to double-down on the matter: I think there is a base to argue that after DRS' ban, blue has the best cardselection tools, best permission AND the best creatures of the format.

[Ronald Deuce]

It's quite hard to find anything better than Delver, Snapcaster, TNN, Leovold, etc in their respective roles without blue mana symbol.

So to double-down on the matter: I think there is a base to argue that after DRS' ban, blue has the best cardselection tools, best permission AND the best creatures of the format.

This prompts me to ask a question of the denizens of this thread that's been at the back of my mind for a while now about the skull-rupturingly awesome elephant in the format: Is Brainstorm so widely played because it's the best card in the format, or are the decks that run Brainstorm all (or mostly) exceptionally well-built decks that would include the best cantrip simply as a matter of course?

I feel like in addition to the general confusion over (or the simple failure to acknowledge) the difference between card diversity and strategic diversity, there's a popular assumption that a card's presence in X% of the top decks is evidence that the card is busted, when it's at least as likely that the other 56 cards in those lists are already excellent without it.

And I'm totally not telling what I (a total pro, for super serial) think is the best card in Legacy, except to say that it isn't Brainstorm.

[Dice_Box]

This prompts me to ask a question of the denizens of this thread that's been at the back of my mind for a while now about the skull-rupturingly awesome elephant in the format: Is Brainstorm so widely played because it's the best card in the format, or are the decks that run Brainstorm all (or mostly) exceptionally well-built decks that would include the best cantrip simply as a matter of course?

It is the best card at what it does. Other cards would replace it but its a step down in power. Its like losing Swords and replacing it with Oust. Sure it fits in the slot, but the power level has changed in your decks.

[Ronald Deuce]

It is the best card at what it does. Other cards would replace it but its a step down in power. Its like losing Swords and replacing it with Oust. Sure it fits in the slot, but the power level has changed in your decks.

Thanks for the response!

I'm in total agreement, but I'm wondering how much of a difference it would actually make to replace Brainstorm with the next-best cantrip. I'm interested in discussing the degree to which the power level of "Brainstorm decks" (not necessarily your words; I'm just being expedient) would actually fall if Brainstorm were banned. At this point, I'm not sure it would really do that much, but I also tend to think in terms of the worst-case scenario.

[phonics]

This prompts me to ask a question of the denizens of this thread that's been at the back of my mind for a while now about the skull-rupturingly awesome elephant in the format: Is Brainstorm so widely played because it's the best card in the format, or are the decks that run Brainstorm all (or mostly) exceptionally well-built decks that would include the best cantrip simply as a matter of course?

I feel like in addition to the general confusion over (or the simple failure to acknowledge) the difference between card diversity and strategic diversity, there's a popular assumption that a card's presence in X% of the top decks is evidence that the card is busted, when it's at least as likely that the other 56 cards in those lists are already excellent without it.

And I'm totally not telling what I (a total pro, for super serial) think is the best card in Legacy, except to say that it isn't Brainstorm.

Its just that we have reached a convergence where Blue almost has direct access to the best of everything, and what it doesn't it can splash fairly easily and brainstorm is the best card in the format. Roughly a decade ago when blue decks weren't as prevalent, blue was played because it answered combo (force) and had the best consistency. With that, if played well, they could maneuver around other strategies that often had stronger cards but weaker consistency. At the time, brainstorm still was like 45-50% of the top table meta (compared tot he 70+% earlier this year, don't know what it is like now). Now that these other decks have lost favor since blue has gotten access to much better cards, majority of the format is just these blue decks splashing the best cards dancing around each other until one exhausts their resources or one top decks better after both have exhausted their resources.

[Dice_Box]

Thanks for the response!

I'm in total agreement, but I'm wondering how much of a difference it would actually make to replace Brainstorm with the next-best cantrip. I'm interested in discussing the degree to which the power level of "Brainstorm decks" (not necessarily your words; I'm just being expedient) would actually fall if Brainstorm were banned. At this point, I'm not sure it would really do that much, but I also tend to think in terms of the worst-case scenario.

Storm would likely be a goner and Miracles would take a gut punch. All the Control (Who dont need to set up top decks) and Tempo decks I feel would be fine. Not happy, but they would live.

[Lemnear]

This prompts me to ask a question of the denizens of this thread that's been at the back of my mind for a while now about the skull-rupturingly awesome elephant in the format: Is Brainstorm so widely played because it's the best card in the format, or are the decks that run Brainstorm all (or mostly) exceptionally well-built decks that would include the best cantrip simply as a matter of course?

The fact that Brainstorm is 53%, Ponder 51%, Polluted Delta, 47%, Scalding Tarn 35%, Misty Rainforst 31% and Flooded Strand 29%, pretty clearly shows that the format has no problem in form of Brainstorm but with a whole core.

Now that these other decks have lost favor since blue has gotten access to much better cards, majority of the format is just these blue decks splashing the best cards dancing around each other until one exhausts their resources or one top decks better after both have exhausted their resources.

The event horizon of the degenerstion of Legacy was the printing of Ponder. That literally doubled the amount of high quality card selection in decks as you no longer had only a ~41% chance to find a fixer for your draws in your starting grip. The moment it was legal tempo dropped mental note and control dropped stuff like Fact or Fiction. Everything melted into one core

[Dice_Box]

The fact that Brainstorm is 53%, Ponder 51%, Polluted Delta, 47%, Scalding Tarn 35%, Misty Rainforst 31% and Flooded Strand 29%, pretty clearly shows that the format has no problem in form of Brainstorm but with a whole core.

While this is true at some point you have to pick your battles. The you can't honestly want to take out all the cantrips just because they do work. You have to accept that's part of Legacy.

My issue is that Brainstorm itself I feel is too powerful, but I accept that the shell will remain. I feel removing Ponder or Preordain is stupid and I would argue against such actions. Not because I don't think these cards would not just slot in, I know they would, but because the power drop is enough. We don't need to kill Legacys identity.

[phonics]

The event horizon of the degenerstion of Legacy was the printing of Ponder. That literally doubled the amount of high quality card selection in decks as you no longer had only a ~41% chance to find a fixer for your draws in your starting grip. The moment it was legal tempo dropped mental note and control dropped stuff like Fact or Fiction. Everything melted into one core

I pretty much agree with that, but it also makes me wonder why portent was essentially unplayable (and largely still is outside of miracles), I assume part of it was that the value of consistency wasn't as high back then, and the card efficiency overall wasn't low enough to benefit from having that much consistency, and also that portent doesn't give you any card velocity, or the ability to chain multiple cantrips in a turn like ponder does.

[Lemnear]

While this is true at some point you have to pick your battles. The you can't honestly want to take out all the cantrips just because they do work. You have to accept that's part of Legacy.

My issue is that Brainstorm itself I feel is too powerful, but I accept that the shell will remain. I feel removing Ponder or Preordain is stupid and I would argue against such actions. Not because I don't think these cards would not just slot in, I know they would, but because the power drop is enough. We don't need to kill Legacys identity.

You know that I am not in favor of removing Brainstorm, Ponder, Preordain or however deep you wanna go to weed out the cantrips, because it's a deep, deep hole you have to dig to achieve a parity to other colors cardselection tools.

I would be very careful with the "identity of Legacy", as many users consider the cantrip shell as such, which ultimately means that nothing should be done and we all just accept that "cantrip shell + killoption of choice" is supposed to stomp everything else. It's not hard to see that pretty much a decade of stagnant Ponder/Brainstorm/Fetch dominance has already bored out far too many players and will hurt the format even more due to prices as an additional factor. "Boring and expensive" isnt a cool mix too keep a format thrieving

I pretty much agree with that, but it also makes me wonder why portent was essentially unplayable (and largely still is outside of miracles), I assume part of it was that the value of consistency wasn't as high back then, and the card efficiency overall wasn't low enough to benefit from having that much consistency, and also that portent doesn't give you any card velocity, or the ability to chain multiple cantrips in a turn like ponder does.

You had opt, serum visions, Mental note, Impulse and predict to fill the role. All got essentially replaced by Ponder and even the classic control draw a la Fact or Fiction or Standstill got pushed out because they were no longer good enough.

[Bithlord]

To be honest, I'd prefer that they raise the other colors up to parity, rather than ban blue down to parity. But, there is no way that will ever happen because how could you do it without jsut making the blue cards in other colors?

I think Force should get in other colors, because that's more or less the only way to stop turn 1 decks.

[Purple Blood]

Thanks for the response!

I'm in total agreement, but I'm wondering how much of a difference it would actually make to replace Brainstorm with the next-best cantrip. I'm interested in discussing the degree to which the power level of "Brainstorm decks" (not necessarily your words; I'm just being expedient) would actually fall if Brainstorm were banned. At this point, I'm not sure it would really do that much, but I also tend to think in terms of the worst-case scenario.

The ceiling on Brainstorm is so much higher than any of the other cantrips. We shouldn't even really be calling Brainstorm a cantrip; its a whole different beast because it let's you shuffle away bad cards.

The fact that Brainstorm is 53%, Ponder 51%, Polluted Delta, 47%, Scalding Tarn 35%, Misty Rainforst 31% and Flooded Strand 29%, pretty clearly shows that the format has no problem in form of Brainstorm but with a whole core.

Right. But the idea wouldn't be to eliminate that whole core. The point would be to remove the best part of the core so that other sets of cards could compete with it.

[hermit_druid]

Just checking everyone is aware that the only thing that has been discussed in the last 5 millennia in here is Brainstorm/Ponder, and that WotC have explicitly said they won't ban Brainstorm. Maybe it'd be more interesting/useful to discuss other cards?

[Lemnear]

But the idea wouldn't be to eliminate that whole core. The point would be to remove the best part of the core so that other sets of cards could compete with it.

This is a pointless and jaring discussion as countless posts in this thread have outlined a hundred times, that this approach results into you having to ban 5-12 cards and even more over time.

[Megadeus]

The ceiling on Brainstorm is so much higher than any of the other cantrips. We shouldn't even really be calling Brainstorm a cantrip; its a whole different beast because it let's you shuffle away bad cards.



Right. But the idea wouldn't be to eliminate that whole core. The point would be to remove the best part of the core so that other sets of cards could compete with it.

This seems to be something many don't seem to get. Brainstorm is far and away much better than ponder. Those of us that think brainstorm should be banned don't think ponder and preordain should also go, just the one that is clearly busted.

[kinda]

This seems to be something many don't seem to get. Brainstorm is far and away much better than ponder. Those of us that think brainstorm should be banned don't think ponder and preordain should also go, just the one that is clearly busted.

I think it's because we call brainstorm/ponder/serum visions etc. all cantrips. Brainstorm isn't a cantrip, it's a 1 mana edh style partial mulligan you can take at any stage of the game. It's very different than all the spells like ponder/green Sun's Zenith/portent which charge a 1 mana premium in exchange for you getting to choose what you want the card to be.

@Hermit_druid: There is no way you finished reading the nourishing lich thread already...stop slacking. There will be a quiz tomorrow.

[Zombie]

I used to be of the opinion that Ponder/Preordain would be fine, just axe Brainstorm and we'll be fine, we have Library and Loam and GSZ and Bob as competition and it should be fine. Over time, I've come to think it won't be enough. These are, as best as I can tell, facts of life:

Observation 1: Every card game ever printed with custom decks has "see a lot of cards" as the best strategy, or a fundamental pillar of the best strategy. Whether it's a MTG, whether it's Netrunner, whether it's a deckbuilder. Doesn't matter.
Observation 2: Cantrips "underread": That is, cantrips that look really bad can actually still be very competitive with cards with other functions that read a lot better. Consistency isn't exciting, but it is insanely powerful.
Observation 3: Brainstorm is by far and away the best card in its class, and articles have been written for ages about how it's the best thing to be doing in Legacy, before Innistrad was even released and changed the format forever.

Now, what that means:
Corollary: Cantrips are of a proper power level when they look like they suck.
Corollary 2: If you are excited about reading a card selection spell or a draw spell (and it's not a CA-neutral card that costs at least 2), it's probably busted.
Corollary 3: That said, if there is a problem, it has to be with cantrips as a class because of the above. Every other engine just falls short, and by Observation 1, will define the best strategies and leave us where we are.


I like Ponder, I like Preordain. They're fun cards. They're also completely bonkers, and the format overall would probably be better off with them being axed in addition to their big brother. This should ideally not be done in one fell swoop - I'd like a competitive cantrip shell. But it probably has to read like a boring pile of jank to be appropriate.