All B/R update speculation.

[Crimhead]

Not to be pedantic, but this is one event vs 4.

And which gives a better representation of a metagame - looking at 1 major event, or 4?

And even looking at the engines we see
Cantrip engine
GSZ
8 Tombs
Loam

Elves is GZS + Glimpse + NO
Storm is built on rituals and tutors as much as cantrip.
S&T is cantrip as well as 8Tomb.

If we reduce decks to their base enablers we don't see the whole picture. Look at how each deck approaches it's matches, and you'll see a wealth of diversity. Ignore this, and see what you want to see (to justify a call for a shake-up, perhaps)?

Edit - I get that some people want more viable cores (and more equilibrium between the viable cores). That's fair. But to say we don't have diversity is objectively wrong.

Also, referring to every threat and answers in a fair deck collectively as "win conditions" (as in the post I had quoted) is either totally disingenuous, or ignorant in the extreme. Grows very tired.

[Noctalor]

Question to the cantrip haters.

What deck would you like to see viable in legacy right now?

(Please, no shitty answers, im asking about precise decks)

[Dice_Box]

Looking at individual top-8s invites a lot of randomness. If we look at the last 4 major events, we see top-8s for:

- Crisis Tempo
- Elves
- Miracles
- Eldrazi Stompy
- Lands
- Dragon Stompy
- Storm
- Death blade
- Miracles
- S&T
- Leo-BUG
- Czech
- Maverick

Personally not interested in digging up the numbers myself, so take this as a disclaimer of how little of a shit I really give.

How many Maverick decks made it to the 32 possible lists? One? An outlier? I'm happy that it made it but an outlier in statistics is not something to pin your hopes too. How many Lands? How many Elves? That's a fine list as a short hand but I am sure if we graffed that data we would see some fairly obvious spikes and some rather basic trends.

Let's be honest, at a 4 round Fnm you can play Jund and do fine. Because lacking filtering doesn't matter in 4 rounds really. At a 15 round event you need it or you need to do something broken in some other form. Even then what your doing ends up forcing such constraints on you that you can be hated out often with a card.

Land's likes to play around Life from the Loam. Thus it's weak to mass land control. Elves is built around Glimpse, thus you need a lot of small cheep creatures. These fail to hold up against sweeping removal.

For every deck that is not playing Brainstorm they have to give up something to do so. Consistency, interaction, open new weaknesses. Often these decks will either share an identity or share nothing at all. Elves and Maverick share a similar plan, to a point. Elves and Lands share... a Forest and some fetches I guess.

I saw something about how birds are all made of the same core elements but are different. Sure. I get you point, here's mine. Elves is your Penguin, Lands is your Emu and the blue stew is your 280 odd different kind of Pidgin. So diverse, all of the fuckers just want my chips and they all try and get to them the same fucking way. Feels apt as a comparison actually. Good call.

Also I'll be fair, Blue has an enemy in Chalice. Good thing those decks have the consistency of bus on a public holiday so you don't really have to worry about them.

Question to the cantrip haters.

What deck would you like to see viable in legacy right now?

(Please, no shitty answers, im asking about precise decks)

Goblins, Maverick (An outlier is not a trend), Thresh (Can't believe I'm saying that) and Zoo. I know that's all not going to happen though, so hey, bigger fool me. I guess I just miss 2009.

[Zulabnar]

Looking at individual top-8s invites a lot of randomness. If we look at the last 4 major events, we see top-8s for:

- Crisis Tempo
- Elves
- Miracles
- Eldrazi Stompy
- Lands
- Dragon Stompy
- Storm
- Death blade
- Miracles
- S&T
- Leo-BUG
- Czech
- Maverick

If you don't see diversity there, you aren't looking.

You are mixing Maverick with 1x presence sometimes with 3x always deck like brainstorm control no sense.

There are no good cards as brainstorm in legacy, draw 3 clean your hand and shuffle the deck with ponder or fetch. Nothing as this power level, infact there are no blue deck without brainstorm, while there are green deck without goyf or black deck without drs.

Some combo deck like TES play blue only for ponder and brainstorm.

Deal with it this is a format that is a brainstorm tirranny, the only way to change it is to ban brainstorm.

Even If WOTC \ Hasbro print good aggro green red white cards, they will be mixed with brainstorm shell, just giving power to the same deck. Also in wiz are so stupid to print blue creature more powerfull than green like delver or TNN.

[Watersaw]

And which gives a better representation of a metagame - looking at 1 major event, or 4?


Elves is GZS + Glimpse + NO
Storm is built on rituals and tutors as much as cantrip.
S&T is cantrip as well as 8Tomb.

If we reduce decks to their base enablers we don't see the whole picture. Look at how each deck approaches it's matches, and you'll see a wealth of diversity. Ignore this, and see what you want to see (to justify a call for a shake-up, perhaps)?

The point was that the two data sets shouldn't even be compared, as one is a single set of 13 while the other is 4 sets of 8. Even then the Modern list is more complete as it tells us the exact quantity of each of the 8 deck archetypes to go x-0. We also know the event, so we have context for time and place. The Legacy list just tells us that out of 32 decks across 4 different events there was at least one instance of each of those 13.

At any rate the argument is about the enablers, so if course we reduce the deck to them. That is what actually matters here, there is a clear correct choice as to what is the best shell across the board.

[Crimhead]

Land's likes to play around Life from the Loam. Thus it's weak to mass land control. Elves is built around Glimpse, thus you need a lot of small cheep creatures. These fail to hold up against sweeping removal.

For every deck that is not playing Brainstorm they have to give up something to do so.

Good-stuff blue piles give up resilience to waste-lock + removal. Every deck in Legacy has it's vulnerabilities

We don't need every cantrip deck to have a single vulnerability, because - news flash for some - they are not a single deck.

Also I'll be fair, Blue has an enemy in Chalice. Good thing those decks have the consistency of bus on a public holiday so you don't really have to worry about them.

Eldrazi has been DTB for 5 straight months, and Dragon Stompy has top--8ed twice in the last 4 major events (including a 1st place). Definitely a relevant presence in the meta.

The point was that the two data sets shouldn't even be compared...

Absolutely right! For a more accurate comparison, we should look at multiple Modern events as well.

Lots of scrutiny over the data from the last 4 major legacy events, but we ate shown a single Modern event and expected to accept it as representative of the format's diversity. Yeah.

That isolated datum from Modern should not have been admissible as evidence at all.

[Crimhead]

You are mixing Maverick with 1x presence sometimes with 3x always deck like brainstorm control no sense.

I am simply listing decks that made top-8 in a recent major event. Not saying maverick is on equal footing with Czech, or even that it's tier-1.

That said, I'd love to see the conversion rates for Maverick!

[Noctalor]

Goblins, Maverick (An outlier is not a trend), Thresh (Can't believe I'm saying that) and Zoo. I know that's all not going to happen though, so hey, bigger fool me. I guess I just miss 2009.

Goblin got power creeped, is not really about brainstorm, goblin is hopeless as long as it doesn't get some new prints, and arguably cantrip decks are the best goblin can face currently
Maverik is honestly quite good right now, I think it will get played more and more as time passes, right now maverik is possibly just straight up better than D&T, or at least on the same power level, still, in legacy it take ages for people to adapt.
Sadly, thresh will underperform, by definition the deck was the pile of the most efficient tempo plays + the most efficient threats, DRS has to leave for it to be relevant, also, cantrips need to stay for it to be a deck
Zoo pretty much got power creeped by black, big zoo basicly turned into Jund (which is arguably not that good still, i agree) and aggro zoo is in fact just dead, still, no cantrips would not really help zoo that much, both maverik and jund are better options.


I personally miss Goblin aswell, hey even Spiral which was my bread and butter since the goblin vs solidarity meta, but as it happens in every card game, power creep exists, and out of the 4 decks you mentioned, pretty much all of them just got power creeped out of the format.
The only real loser here is zoo, which just got obsolete, mostly because GRW are pretty much the worst 3 colors of the game, there is basicly not a single card good enough to carry that color combination

I would prefer new, interesting prints, rather than bans, cantrips are not gonna matter unless a mass ban happens,

[Crimhead]

Maverik is honestly quite good right now, I think it will get played more and more as time passes, right now maverik is possibly just straight up better than D&T, or at least on the same power level, still, in legacy it take ages for people to adapt.

If Maverick becomes tier-1 again (and supplants D&T) I predict a lot less noise in these forums.

Obviously Maverick adds a lot more diversity than D&T.

[Lemnear]

It's comical that some try to split up the DRS + Blue Shell decks based on if they ran Leovold, TNN or Pyromancer and call that diversity

[Crimhead]

It's comical that some try to split up the DRS + Blue Shell decks based on if they ran Leovold, TNN or Pyromancer and call that diversity

I would distinguish Czech vs Grixis Tempo as one being an (albeit grindy) tempo deck, while the other leans to control and is more firmly a midrange deck. From the Who's The Beat down perspective, Grixis is hoping to play beat down, while Czech hopes to play control.

But I agree that these decks are not that different. These decks are only slightly more different than BUG is to Jund , or High Tide is Solidarity, or TES is to ANT.

Personally I think diversity is driven by the enormous share of the meta that is collectively occupied by Lands, Elves, Eldrazi, D&T, ANT, S&T, Miracles, Depths, Prowess, and other relevant but less prominent decks. Sadly these aren't the decks people seem to want to see, so they don't count as providing diversity.

[Watersaw]

Good-stuff blue piles give up resilience to waste-lock + removal. Every deck in Legacy has it's vulnerabilities

We don't need every cantrip deck to have a single vulnerability, because - news flash for some - they are not a single deck.

Lots of scrutiny over the data from the last 4 major legacy events, but we ate shown a single Modern event and expected to accept it as representative of the format's diversity. Yeah.

Fine, I'll take the bait.
In this day and age "good-stuff blue piles" is largely synonymous with "Blue + DRS." These lists are notorious for running 3+ colors alongside their own Wasteland. The card is really not great against them.

As for the perfectly justifiable scrutiny, you presented an incomplete data set as gospel in response to a snapshot of one event. Here, I'm assuming these are the events you took from.

GP Seattle http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=18985&f=LE
1664 players - 07/04/18
1 Grixis Delver - Daniel Duterte2 BUG Leovold - Jeremy Dezani
3 Lands - Sam Black
4 Miracles - Keaton Wood
5 Grixis Delver - Noah Walker
6 4c Control - Steve Rubin
7 Miracles - Luke Purcell
8 Maverick - Miranda Keith

SCG Team Open Cincinnati http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=18846&f=LE
341 players - 24/03/18
1 Grixis Delver - Joe Bernal
2 Grixis Delver - Erik Rose
3/4 Lands - Matthew Dilks
3/4 Miracles - James Baker
5/8 Dragon Stompy - Edward Drew
5/8 Grixis Delver - Tannon Grace
5/8 Miracles - Bernie Wen
5/8 Show and Tell - Dylan Kirkpatrick

Grand Prix Madrid Team Constructed http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=18737&f=LE
354 players - 11/03/18
1 Eldrazi Aggro - Charles Eliatamby
2 4c Control - Thomas Enevoldsen
3/4 Dragon Stompy - Alessandro Lippi
3/4 Dragon Stompy - Per Nyström
5/8 BUG Threshold - Javier Dominguez
5/8 Dark Depths- Vladimir Arneuve
5/8 Stoneblade - Jasper Grimmer
5/8 UR Delver -Alessandro Manzini


SCG Classic Worcester* http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=18670&f=LE
206 players - 04/03/18
1 Dragon Stompy - Zac Turgeon
2 Storm - Ethan Formichella
3/4 Grixis Delver - Dylan Gellis
3/4 Lands - Kevin King
5/8 4c Stoneblade - William Moore
5/8 Grixis Delver - Patrick Foote
5/8 Lands - Ross Mcgee
5/8 Storm - Chad Uzzell


Final count (deck - top8/top4)
Grixis Delver - 7/4
Lands - 4/3
Miracles - 4/2
Dragon Stompy - 4/3
4c Control - 2/1
Storm - 2/1
BUG Leovold - 1/1
Eldrazi Aggro - 1/1
Maverick - 1/0
Show and Tell - 1/0
BUG Threshold - 1/0
Dark Depths - 1/0
Stoneblade -1/0
UR Delver - 1/0
4c Stoneblade - 1/0


*BONUS - SCG Legacy Open Worcester http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=18668&f=LE
719 players - 03/03/18 (one day prior to the previous event, more than 3 times as many players)
1 Grixis Delver - Drake Sasser
2 Elves - Ben Feingersh
3/4 Grixis Delver - Jeffrey White
3/4 Miracles - Jim Davis
5/8 Eldrazi Aggro - Dylan Hand
5/8 Grixis Delver - Jonathan Sukenik
5/8 Grixis Delver - Noah Walker
5/8 Lands - Adam Falls

Adding this, our data is
Final count (deck - top8/top4)
Grixis Delver -11/5
Miracles - 5/3
Lands - 4/4
Dragon Stompy - 4/3
4c Control - 2/1
Storm - 2/1
Eldrazi Aggro - 2/1
BUG Leovold - 1/1
Elves - 1/1
Maverick - 1/0
Show and Tell - 1/0
BUG Threshold - 1/0
Dark Depths - 1/0
Stoneblade -1/0
UR Delver - 1/0
4c Stoneblade - 1/0


Four of the five events have predominantly cantrip-based decks in the top 8. Count follows as
GP Seattle - 6
SCG Team Open Cincinnati - 6
Grand Prix Madrid Team Constructed - 4
SCG Classic Worcester - 5
SCG Legacy Open Worcester - 5
26/40 or 65%, less then I actually expected.
For top 4 the numbers are 12/24. 50% even. EDIT: I can't count. 12/20, 60%.

Eldrazi Aggro has placed twice of the 40 listed entries, at those numbers it's even with 4c Control and Storm. Dragon Stompy's presence is a surprise to me, if there are any caveats they are that (1) it is only represented in events with less than 500 players and (2) the one event is did win was a much smaller event the same weekend as an Open.

[Crimhead]

Thanks for making this post!

As for the perfectly justifiable scrutiny, you presented an incomplete data set as gospel in response to a snapshot of one event. Here, I'm assuming these are the events you took from.

I omitted the team event. Not sure where this gospel stuff comes from. I just figured looking recent (major) top-8s would provide some insight into the meta and what is viable. Not saying those 4 lists define the meta.

My point was that we don't need a wide range of decks to all do well in a single event. If multiple decks are succeeding over a few separate events, that's just as good.

Four of the five events have predominantly cantrip-based decks in the top 8.

I have an issue with categorising decks based on the presence of cantrip. This is an arbitrary division in that +/- cantrip doesn't give any information what the deck actually does, which matches it likes, etc. eg, Miracles and ANT are close to as different as 2 decks can be (way more different than, eg, Maverick vs Czech).

To me this is (almost) akin to complaining that too many decks have the exact same land count. That simply doesn't define a deck at all.

In this day and age "good-stuff blue piles" is largely synonymous with "Blue + DRS." These lists are notorious for running 3+ colors alongside their own Wasteland. The card is really not great against them.

I am willing to consider these decks collectively. As you say, these are good-stuff aggro control decks that only differ in the degree of aggression and the specific (similarly functioning) threats and answers.

Looking at paper data from MTG top8, these decks make up about 1/3 of the meta. That is pretty high, but:

1. These decks are not 100% the same. eg, we are including Stoneblade.
2. This is a lot higher than it has been lately (I've been checking regularly) We can't assume the past 2 months are a trend that will stick.

If good-stuff blue+DRS sustains this meta-share, I could be open to supporting a ban (but not insisting on a ban). If it comes to it, my vote would be to lose DRS and keep BS. Reasons being:

• DRS feeds good-stuff decks almost exclusively (BS supports other strategies).
• Banning DRS will have a more drastic effect, as the gap between DRS and the next best replacement is probably more significant.

Basically DRS is a midrange value engine that promotes good-stuff decks. If too many good-stuff aggro/control decks is the issue, that is the obvious solution IMO.
Honestly I wouldn't miss either card much (unless of course the meta goes to complete shit).

Eldrazi Aggro has placed twice of the 40 listed entries, at those numbers it's even with 4c Control and Storm. Dragon Stompy's presence is a surprise to me, if there are any caveats they are that (1) it is only represented in events with less than 500 players and (2) the one event is did win was a much smaller event the same weekend as an Open.

Eldrazi seems to be on a downswing after 5 months of DTB status (and holding 2nd place overall for a while according to MTG top8 paper data). But it is normal for Legacy to ebb and flow a bit. Don't count it out.

re Dragon Stompy, also worth considering that we can assume a relatively tiny player base. That makes those numbers extremely impressive IMO.

[kinda]

Interesting stat, according to mtgtop8 the top two most played nonland modern cards are lighting bolt at 37% and fatal push at 19%. What this tells me is modern has one established tier 1 card in bolt. Legacy has 4 cards played in over 40% of decks. Plus 7 tier 2 cards in the 20-39% range. I still prefer legacy over modern but think this could be improved.

[Lemnear]

So from watersaws paper result crunch we have DRS goodstuff at 60% within the top 8s and with a 33% metashare according to crimhead.

That sounds like it's overperforming more than Miracles did at it's time

[Julian23]

I guess I just miss 2009.

Same here. The period from 2009 to 2011 was by far the most enjoyable Legacy has ever felt to me. Then we started doing this whole Griselbrand, Delver thing and archetypes changed quite a lot and the whole format did speed up a lot.

[Lemnear]

I guess we all just miss when tempo and aggro-control had to choose between it's colors and tools accordingly to not get fucked over in the mirror, Painter & Co.

The whole thing went to shit then people ran run Shardless Agent, Hymn to Tourach and Meddling Mage in the same deck. Everything we see today is just natural development

[Zulabnar]

Thanks for making this post!





I have an issue with categorising decks based on the presence of cantrip. This is an arbitrary division in that +/- cantrip doesn't give any information what the deck actually does, which matches it likes, etc. eg, Miracles and ANT are close to as different as 2 decks can be (way more different than, eg, Maverick vs Czech).

That's your problem. Those deck are categorised by common cards. Because we talk about cards not about decks.

Power level of those cards is high, infact Tempo decks, Combo decks, and control decks use the same shell (brain + Ponder).
It means those cards are just too good for any strategy to not choose to put in.

This is why Brainstorm and Ponder are to good. While DRS no. Infact combo decks not use DRS, and also MIracle does not use DRS.

You can finde decks playin DRS + Brainstorm + Ponder, or deck playing Brainstorm+ Ponder.

Deck that plays DRS without Brainstorm + Ponder are not tier 1 , it's just an accident? i don't think so.

http://tcdecks.net/metagame.php Loof top 3 decks are just control with brain + ponder shell.

[Crimhead]

So from watersaws paper result crunch we have DRS goodstuff at 60% within the top 8s and with a 33% metashare according to crimhead.

That sounds like it's overperforming more than Miracles did at it's time

The difference is one month vs a long time.

Worth noting watetsaws was counting all cantrip decks, not just DRS/cantrip decks. Miracles, Tempo, Storm, S&T, etc. I believe during SDT's heyday cantrip decks were over 70% (hovered between 60%-75%)

[maharis]

Question to the cantrip haters.

What deck would you like to see viable in legacy right now?

(Please, no shitty answers, im asking about precise decks)

I wouldn’t really consider myself a cantrip hater, but I do tire of starting every deck the same way.

I would like to see more decks that operate on different engines. Fair/Grindy applications of Faithless Looting, for example, like the old Zombardment deck or modern’s BRw pyromancer deck.

I’d like to see Dark Confidant come back as a good card, or for Smuggler’s Copter to get a chance to break out.

And before someone links me to some rando list that uses some of these cards... I mean in the way that there would actually be a meaningful decision to make about what deck you would select. Everyone knows that a Brainstorm and buddies deck is the way to go.


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