All B/R update speculation.

[Ingo]

When, please show me the Combo or Control deck which runs the full 20 cards listed. Where is your Counterbalance or Griselbrand deck with Treasure Cruise? Is it THAT hard to admit that you find these 20-card-shell ONLY in Aggro-Control variants?

I do admit that I consider TC / DTT as similar cards, which isn't entirely correct.
Evidently the deck that runs all 20 is jeskai ascendency and omnitell, in brainstorm/ponder/force/probe/DTT or TC (+ pre-ordain for omnitell and spell pierce for ascendency combo)
Also Sneakshow runs brainstorm/ponder/force/probe/+someDTT/+some spellPierce
Also High Tide runs brainstorm/ponder/force/probe/+sometimesDTT/+sometimes spellpierce

Other combodecks don't run TC or DTT but share other blueshell cards:
Reanimator: brainstorm/ponder/force/daze
Storm: brainstorm/ponder/preordian/probe

Whereas a temposhell would consist of:
brainstorm/ponder/force/probe/TC/daze/spellPierce

Sometimes its a 16 card overlap, sometimes a 24 card overlap, with some varying cards like daze, spellpierce, preordain, and differentiation between Treasure Cruise and Dig Through time

[Dice_Box]

Can someone please close this thread? There is no end to this pointless discussion.

That will not happen. I have spoken with a mod on this topic and without directly quoting a message sent in private, the answer was "Best to have all the talk in one place over playing wack a mole with it in other threads".

[Lemnear]

Other (non-blue) strategies would find themselves in a much better position to fight this cantrip engine and I think that's what this is all about.

And I spend a serious time and several post in the last weeks to explain why this isn't the case

[Nielsie]

And I spend a serious time and several post in the last weeks to explain why this isn't the case

Reason the more to ban Brainstorm + Ponder (or Treasure Cruise) because with this reasoning, blue already has fixed versions of Brainstorm and Ponder just like black has fixed versions of Demonic Tutor and green has fixed versions of Survival...

[Finn]

And I spend a serious time and several post in the last weeks to explain why this isn't the case

You can explain all you want. That does not make you right. This vision you have that all cantrips are created equal is so misguided that it does not even bare talking about. To believe that, one would have to not understand the very basics of the game and also not have experienced it first hand. I do not know whether to laugh or get upset about all that, but seriously I have to ask...have you ever played Legacy?

[LennonMarx]

I don't think he has ever said that all cantrips are created equal. Obviously, the "blue shell" is weaker if it is missing Brainstorm (and/or Ponder and/or Treasure Cruise). His point is this doesn't magically make anything else better. Jund/Maverick/Goblins/whatever gain some ground in that the "blue decks" become slightly less consistent, and likely merge into UWx Stoneblade. So, at the cost of consolidating all the blue decks in the room into roughly 1 shell and removing Miracles/Storm/SnT/A pile of fringe decks from the meta (and significantly weakening tempo decks), we get the benefit of making a bunch of tier 2-3 decks into tier 1.5-2.5 decks. From a tournament standpoint, I guess it might be preferable to only have 1-2 "blue" decks as it might make some sideboard decisions easier, but the cost of losing huge swaths of playable decks feels like too much.

[Lemnear]

You can explain all you want. That does not make you right. This vision you have that all cantrips are created equal is so misguided that it does not even bare talking about. To believe that, one would have to not understand the very basics of the game and also not have experienced it first hand. I do not know whether to laugh or get upset about all that, but seriously I have to ask...have you ever played Legacy?

Why not stop putting words in my mouth, but adressing my argument about the "Hydras head" and potential results instead?

But you think it's worth bitching about decks and cards which became less viable because of newer printings and claim those new cards need to be banned or neutralized so 6-year-old decks are playable again, all while claiming the Legacy metagame is sooooo stagnant? I'm sure you and your brothers in mind don't get the idiocy of those contradicting ideas.

My patience to read bullshit like "back in the days, Legacy was a 5-color-rainbow-ponyland!" has come to an end. The metagame structure of Aggro-control/combo/control or the presence of Brainstorm/cantrip shells since 2006 has not changed much except that stupid turn-sideways-only doesn't cut it anymore.


Edit:

I don't think he has ever said that all cantrips are created equal. Obviously, the "blue shell" is weaker if it is missing Brainstorm (and/or Ponder and/or Treasure Cruise). His point is this doesn't magically make anything else better. Jund/Maverick/Goblins/whatever gain some ground in that the "blue decks" become slightly less consistent, and likely merge into UWx Stoneblade. So, at the cost of consolidating all the blue decks in the room into roughly 1 shell and removing Miracles/Storm/SnT/A pile of fringe decks from the meta (and significantly weakening tempo decks), we get the benefit of making a bunch of tier 2-3 decks into tier 1.5-2.5 decks. From a tournament standpoint, I guess it might be preferable to only have 1-2 "blue" decks as it might make some sideboard decisions easier, but the cost of losing huge swaths of playable decks feels like too much.

Praise the lord for everyone like you who at least comprehends my arguments. It's everyones choice to agree or disagree with my conclusion, but the constant "I did not read what you wrote, but I think you said [enter nonsense created from thin air], and this feeds my counterargument!" really drives me mad.

[FoolofaTook]

I don't think he has ever said that all cantrips are created equal. Obviously, the "blue shell" is weaker if it is missing Brainstorm (and/or Ponder and/or Treasure Cruise). His point is this doesn't magically make anything else better. Jund/Maverick/Goblins/whatever gain some ground in that the "blue decks" become slightly less consistent, and likely merge into UWx Stoneblade. So, at the cost of consolidating all the blue decks in the room into roughly 1 shell and removing Miracles/Storm/SnT/A pile of fringe decks from the meta (and significantly weakening tempo decks), we get the benefit of making a bunch of tier 2-3 decks into tier 1.5-2.5 decks. From a tournament standpoint, I guess it might be preferable to only have 1-2 "blue" decks as it might make some sideboard decisions easier, but the cost of losing huge swaths of playable decks feels like too much.

You get dozens of playable lists back if you significantly weaken the blue shell. The only list you lose is Miracles. The other lists are all still viable they're just not head and heels above the meta due to a broken shell that invalidates almost all non-blue lists.

We wouldn't be having this conversation right now if 70% of the lists in the meta were playing 12 or more of Lightning Bolt, Chain Lightning, Rift Bolt, Monastery Swiftspear, Young Pyromancer, Gutshot and Forked Bolt. The only question at that point would be what do you need to ban to bring the red shell back to the field so other lists can compete on a more even footing.

We wouldn't be having the conversation if that red shell meta had no blue lists at all in it because blue was too weak to do anything more than contribute a power card here and there to mainly red shell lists. People would be crying for the chance to play blue because without counter spells the meta was too predictable. That's where black is right now, btw. No black lists at all outside of the blue shell ANT and only ONE black creature that sees play in multiple lists in Deathrite Shaman, which is half-green.

[Lemnear]

You get dozens of playable lists back if you significantly weaken the blue shell.

And at the same time you guys want to reinstate 6+ year old decks, you complain about a stagnant metagame. Lawl

[FoolofaTook]

And at the same time you guys want to reinstate 6+ year old decks, you complain about a stagnant metagame. Lawl

It's a horribly stagnant metagame at the moment. The only "new" lists that have entered the meta in the last two years are blue shell or MUD - a list that has been kicking around for years and has finally found the meta where it's good.

The revelation in the last SCG just concluded was "guess what? Even Kird Apes are good in the blue shell!"

[Lemnear]

It's a horribly stagnant metagame at the moment. The only "new" lists that have entered the meta in the last two years are blue shell or MUD - a list that has been kicking around for years and has finally found the meta where it's good.

Because DRS, Containment Priest, Deluge, Decay, etc. had absolutely no impact...

[Finn]

Why not stop putting words in my mouth, but adressing my argument about the "Hydras head" and potential results instead?

Sure. I was hoping to avoid fundamentals, but I can do that. You are wrong. Your hydra analogy is wrong.

Try this exercise about the results of banning a card:
-------------------------
When you ban the best card, another may fill its place. But that card will not be as good, and the decks it enables will not be quite as good. result: positive
When you ban the best card, no other card can fill its place because the banned card was just that much better than everything else. result: positive
When you ban a card another card fills its place just as well and the decks it enables continue to dominate because the card you banned was not actually any better than similar cards. result: negative
-------------------------

Which one of these is absolutely stupid because it presumes that Brainstorm is no better than Serum Vision?

I don't care about old decks. No deck has a right to exist. I only want you to acknowledge what should be obvious: A card that is consistently present in 70% of top decks and dominates deck construction confines is a problem for the format.

[LennonMarx]

You get dozens of playable lists back if you significantly weaken the blue shell. The only list you lose is Miracles. The other lists are all still viable they're just not head and heels above the meta due to a broken shell that invalidates almost all non-blue lists.

We wouldn't be having this conversation right now if 70% of the lists in the meta were playing 12 or more of Lightning Bolt, Chain Lightning, Rift Bolt, Monastery Swiftspear, Young Pyromancer, Gutshot and Forked Bolt. The only question at that point would be what do you need to ban to bring the red shell back to the field so other lists can compete on a more even footing.

I am legitimately curious what decks we get back that aren't still a mile worse than a stoneblade deck that fixes its already consistent draws with Preordain and Serum Visions instead of BS and Ponder. Now, granted, there are ripple effects. Aggro gains some ground by not getting terminused, obviously, but those decks still seem poorly positioned against a format that glomps onto Esperblade. "Those other lists" are hardly head and shoulders better than anything, though certainly some of them are tier 1.

[CabalTherapy]

This thread has become a ridiculous discussion about colours as if they were in a way important for Legacy. I would advise you, Lemnear, to backtrack and stop throwing arguments in a burning bucket.

[AznSeal]

You get dozens of playable lists back if you significantly weaken the blue shell. The only list you lose is Miracles. The other lists are all still viable they're just not head and heels above the meta due to a broken shell that invalidates almost all non-blue lists.

We wouldn't be having this conversation right now if 70% of the lists in the meta were playing 12 or more of Lightning Bolt, Chain Lightning, Rift Bolt, Monastery Swiftspear, Young Pyromancer, Gutshot and Forked Bolt. The only question at that point would be what do you need to ban to bring the red shell back to the field so other lists can compete on a more even footing.

We wouldn't be having the conversation if that red shell meta had no blue lists at all in it because blue was too weak to do anything more than contribute a power card here and there to mainly red shell lists. People would be crying for the chance to play blue because without counter spells the meta was too predictable. That's where black is right now, btw. No black lists at all outside of the blue shell ANT and only ONE black creature that sees play in multiple lists in Deathrite Shaman, which is half-green.

I don't think you understand so i'll post this in steps.

1) Right now, blue shell is stronger than random tier 2 nonblue decks by a value of X
2) As a result, people play the blue shell
3) After bannings, blue shell becomes stronger than random tier 2 nonblue decks by a value of Y, but Y is less than X
4) People who want to win will still play the blue shell, because it's still slightly better

It doesn't matter if tier 2 jank loses 8/10 times now versus 7/10 times in the future, people still won't play it.

The blue shell isn't even that much stronger, given the fact that it performed relative to its representation.

I'd even argue that random tier 2 jank decks need brainstorm to remain as competitive as they are. Why should decks like Food Chain, Hightide, and Landstill be casualties of war and give up their space for other tier 2 decks like Pox, Zoo, and Goblins just because people hate the fact that they use brainstorm?

[Lemnear]

Sure. I was hoping to avoid fundamentals, but I can do that. You are wrong. Your hydra analogy is wrong.

Try this exercise about the results of banning a card:
-------------------------
When you ban the best card, another may fill its place. But that card will not be as good, and the decks it enables will not be quite as good. result: positive
When you ban the best card, no other card can fill its place because the banned card was just that much better than everything else. result: positive
When you ban a card another card fills its place just as well and the decks it enables continue to dominate because the card you banned was not actually any better than similar cards. result: negative
-------------------------

Which one of these is absolutely stupid because it presumes that Brainstorm is no better than Serum Vision?

If you would have read ANY of my previous posts on the topic, you knew I talked about the bolded only, but you obviously did not. That's why I said you should fucking stop to put words in my mouth, smartass.

I also said that the gap between Brainstorm + Ponder and Ponder + Preordain (with Brainstorm banned) is much smaller than the one between Ponder + Preordain and running no cantrips at all, which resulted into my prediction that running without cantrips (read: the blue cantrip shell) does not get more attractive in terms of consistancy and card selection. Ergo, there is no reason that the number of non-blue decks should automatically increase and the effect of the banning of a single cantrip vanishes, not to talk about the side effects on decks like Miracles and the streamlining of (aggro-)control shells and combo decks.

Edit: AznSeal already wrote down a step-by-step guide for comprehending. ;)

[LennonMarx]

I don't think you understand so i'll post this in steps.

1) Right now, blue shell is stronger than random tier 2 nonblue decks by a value of X
2) As a result, people play the blue shell
3) After bannings, blue shell becomes stronger than random tier 2 nonblue decks by a value of Y, but Y is less than X
4) People who want to win will still play the blue shell, because it's still slightly better

It doesn't matter if tier 2 jank loses 8/10 times now versus 7/10 times in the future, people still won't plat it.

The blue shell isn't even that much stronger, given the fact that it performed relative to its representation

Thank you for being much more eloquent than I. This is exactly what I was trying and failing to get at.

[Quasim0ff]

Can someone please close this thread? There is no end to this pointless discussion.

Please no. This is hillarious to read. So many flawed arguments, and wrongfully taken lines of argumentation.

[Barook]

Isn't this a slippery slope to take for every colors competitive shell? White decks from D&T to Blade to Maverick start with 4 SFM and 4 Plows (even in some Miracles we see the SFM!). No one complains about that. Green/Black decks start with 4 DRS and 4 GSZ. I still hear no one complaining. I could also point to most red decks and Lightning Bolt. No competitive deck starts from the scratch with 60 undefined cards. Period.

4 cards that go into virtually EVERY deck (which, according the Mental Misstep numbers before its ban for abundancy, is somewhere around 70-75%). Nonblue cards don't go into 70+% of all decks, unlike Brainstorm.

I could use tcdecks, but their formating is dumb.

The first nonblue spell in the format is Lightning Bolt at ~ 30%, or 32.4% for StP in Paper. That's why nobody is complaining, because they don't go into every goddamn deck, as it should be.

[Nielsie]

1) Right now, blue shell is stronger than random tier 2 nonblue decks by a value of X
2) As a result, people play the blue shell
3) After bannings, blue shell becomes stronger than random tier 2 nonblue decks by a value of Y, but Y is less than X
4) People who want to win will still play the blue shell, because it's still slightly better

How do you know that value Y is positive and not negative? I am not convinced, especially if we are talking about banning Brainstorm and Ponder (or TC). Moreover, if value Y is positive this would mean we urgently need to ban Brainstorm and Ponder (or TC) because blue already has 'overpowered' cantrips, it would mean it needs Brainstorm and Ponder as much as Black needs Demonic Tutor.

And at the same time you guys want to reinstate 6+ year old decks, you complain about a stagnant metagame. Lawl

I much prefer the current meta + 6 year old decks than only the current meta. I think that's obvious. The more valid decks, the better the meta-game, the more fun I have in Legacy. Offcourse that is subjective, I like a wider and more open meta-game. I can understand other people prefer a small restricted meta-game, but just admit it then!