Geeez, I'm considering to get rid of my altered LED's with the current boom. Not sure if I really want to have 2 sets here
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The prices are getting pretty ridiculous at this point--but I feel like the modern prices have been far more volatile than the legacy ones. There have definitely been a legacy staples that have spiked like crazy, but a lot of them are heavily played staples that have been trending upwards for a while. That said, the legacy prices are definitely getting out of hand. Even as someone who has pretty much all of the legacy staples, these skyrocketing prices have driven at least a couple of the legacy diehards I know to sell out. I suppose that the rising prices mean that there is supposed a larger pool of legacy players, but if you look at the increases of the player base, demand has definitely not doubled or tripled.
I'm unsure about the future of the format to be honest. It has survived for quite a while, but prices have never been this ridiculous. The market itself reminds me of an article I recently read -- http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26680993. Either way though--all signs point to a crash at some point. Whether through internal speculation (continued hoarding) or external shock (counterfeits form china), I think prices will come down at some point. The if isn't a question in my mind, just the when.
As I see it, things are probably going like this:
Hoarders/speculators keep rising the prices of cards until the supply with sky-high prices far exceed the demand. Since significantly less people are interested in paying for such overpriced cards, SCG can only move their stuff very slowly/at a low profit margin, thus leading the abandonment of the Legacy Open in its current form (the external shock). Then some people are going to cash out since they have no reason to keep a huge collection, prices are getting lower, speculators are panicking and it all goes to hell from there.
Currently, there are still people who are willing to pay the ridiculous card prices, but how many would actually buy e.g. a single Revised Underground Sea for 500$?
A safe is a good idea. I stayed away from double-sleeving for a long time because it was a pain in the ass. However, I recommend two things: first, switch to sleeves that easily fit the perfect fits (I use Legion Mat Black, these fit much better than KMC). Second, keep all your staples in perfect fits at all times, that way when you want to put a deck together you only have to sleeve it once (with the normal sleeves). It takes a while initially to get all your stuff in the perfect fits, but it's easy from then on, just keep extra perfect fits around for when you pick up new cards.
[QUOTE=somethingdotdotdot;801810]It has survived for quite a while, but prices have never been this ridiculous.[QUOTE]
What I'll say will probably sound silly but I think prices have always been this way becaue at any given point in time they've always been worse than before. I remember people sort of freaking out around the time when Modern was announced and the fear was that it was going to kill Legacy and crash the price bubble. It hasn't happened, yet. But I agree with the rest of your post. I think the question is not if but when. I think it's fairly obvious that this is not a sustainable model and I'm curious to see what the crashing point will be. If $250 Undergroung Sea is still not bursting the bubble, it's frigging hilarious to observe how things will pan out.
Legacy: Rituals
Vintage: Drains
Arbiter is from the Modern Hate Bears style deck. It's GW.
Whenever I see a kid in a wheelchair it makes me a little sad. Because I always think, "Gee, they could have used those same wheels to make a bike for a regular kid. What a waste."
True, but that doesn't explain the big increase in price, especially because the one thing I can think of that might rise it--that deck getting 2nd place at ChannelFireball's $5K Modern event--took place after the jump.
Then again, the "jump" was from like 10¢ to 70¢. Which is high percentage wise, but in absolute terms means a playset costs just $2 more.
This. I got about one thousand cards, and I got all I need. It took me no time to perfect fit them.
On topic: I'm continuing in cashing out. I'll keep the RUG, though, and one or two fun decks. I hope that the excess cards will be enough to pay the RUG. What bothers me is how slowly the cards move, but then again I don't want to sell them too cheap
I wonder how SCG dropping Legacy as a Format would affect Europe.
Crises tend to spread. If US legacy scene collapses, it may affect Europe. SCG won't be the main factor (in fact it needn't to be any factor). The USD 500 duals are what matters. That, and the possible flood of solid forgeries.
In fact I don't think it happens. The format is resilient, and it may simply return back to the state of 2006 or so, with small number of dedicated players. After all, you don't need 2500 other players for your weekly Thursday Legacy Evening. It'll be a bit more stagnant format (as the players won't have additional funds for additional decks; also something power creep something top performing decks something blue stranglehold) and it'll be even more of a community driven format than WotC's one.
Well if scg drops legacy as a format, I'm sure that the US market will be flooded with extra staples. European consumers will likely start buying up american cards at discounted prices. European prices will drop to meet the American prices. In today's global market, arbitrage is quite difficult to maintain.
My thought is that if legacy "dies" prices will drop. People will sell out and more people will buy right back in. This isnt like Vintage where power is pretty scarce. DUals, Forces, Wastes, and fetches and such are all much more common than power.
EDH seems fine for that, but competitive formats won't let that slide; there will be differences in wear from one sleeve to the next, even if they're all the same color/brand. This can cause situations where the judge deems your cards to be marked.
Black Lotus at $3000 on SCG.
mtgpimp
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