The Warhol thing was pretty interesting. He basically stated that with enough money, you can decide the price of an item. If there was a very well-known shop or person paying $1000 for any and all Underground Seas and the word was out there in the market, no one would ever sell their Seas to anyone if they knew they could move them for $1000. This is what the Warhol dealer did, whether for the love of the artist or not. He just paid whatever he could get them at, and eventually, all the ones he bought up at $30,000 are now worth a whole ton more.Originally Posted by bruizar
Pimping is an entirely different ball game. Unhinged foil basics serve no more utility than free basic lands given away at your local store, but people want to pimp. It's why performance cars exist - it's not the destination (tapping for mana), but the journey and experience (tapping for mana while being lots of money).
Also, the big dual land pic is an old pic from a Bazaar of Moxen prize pool, if I recall. Everyone just uses that pic as a greed pic when it was for prize support, if I recall.
Realistically, I would like to see prices come down and supply increase, however that happens. Sure, if you bought in at $200 Underground Seas it might suck, but then you just don't sell your Seas ever and you're still good to go. Prices going up can be good to a point, but I know that if I were buying into Legacy now, even with the money to spend, I might not want to. Cockatrice and proxies could be an option if I just wanted to fool around. Realistically, reprinting Force of Will and Wasteland and the other cards that aren't on the Reserved List would be a good start.
-Matt
bruizar makes an interesting claim that Magic could be used for money laundering. I'm not sure the Magic market has the liquidity to do large scale laundering like art might, but I could definitely believe some sort of laundering is going on. That being said, it just seems like a bit of stretch to watch a youtube video claiming x is the cause for y then say x is also the cause for z.
Edit:
Also wanted to address the "priced out" argument. That's bullshit. Many people in my generation got exposed to the game as kids and now that they're settling into lucrative nerdy careers, they find themselves with a grand or more a month to spare. Of all the stupid shit to spend money on, something that historically has appreciated quite a bit doesn't seem like the worst. I wouldn't be surprised to find that the hikes are caused by real demand that's fairly cost-insensitive.
Languages and dates for every set. For all you true pimps.
I don't see the demographic change over the past years, if you get what I mean...
It's not like our weekly Legacies were full of children when duals were 600 crowns per piece, then it became more mature when they climbed to 1200 crowns and finally it happened to be a greybeard-only format when the lands went over two thousand.
At least our Legacy Thursdays were always the same speaking of demographic. Not to mention that being adult is not a sure way to not be a douche. I'd rather spend my time with a decent young gentleman, than with some of the Source users famous for their arrogance, conceit, haughtiness, showing of and scornfulness.
Yes. Sadly, not every pimping is pimping, and buying Revised duals for 160 euros is definitely not a pimping process. These cards are playable material and people would use even cheaper game pieces if they'd be available. Otoh, now when I think of it, a piece of cardboard for three thousand crowns says a lot about one's status, so even though most of the Legacy diehards sneer at Revised duals, there are others who drool over them.
Shame they weren't printed in Fourth Edition, not only that there would be many more of them, but they'd be available without the hiddeous "T:" symbol, not even speaking of the whole wording "You may turn this sideways on the table and then add one mana of the appropriate color into your mana pool, which in a case of this one particular land is either one green mana or one white mana. This card counts as both... zzz..." of the older versions.
As I already wrote, I can't imagine any hobbyist (no matter what's his hobby, be it fishing or bibliophilia or skateboard or Warhammer or whatever else) saying "wow, I'm so happy that my hobby is expensive, every time I need anything, I need to spend a basket of money." So it surprises me that in MtG it should be different. But to each his own, or how the phrase goes.
I just cannot understand why WotC did not decide to make money of the Eternal, but maybe they are afraid that the Standard scene may crumble, or they don't wanna dip into the many troubles of Eternal cardpool and interactions, moreover it's quite possible that they're secretly printing the old cards and throw them into circulation via proxy companies.
It is (could be) done in a same way as the restaurants that sell baked duck for 300 euros do it. It's not like anybody controls them if they really sold two hundred dinners daily. In MtG it's even more easy. You'll write that you bought one hundred Jaces for 25 euro and then you'll write that you sold them for 50 euro. No tax dude would ever understand what's going on, as long as you'll show him the decklists. "Yes, my dear, it sounds ludicrous, but people really buy our Jaces and baked ducks." There are thousands of liquid MtG pieces, contrary to art, they are indistinguishable, they're prices are more affected by temporal swings, etc., etc. It shouldn't be hard to laundry e.g. a million crowns per month, you onlyneed to "sell" what, fifty Jaces, fourty goyfs, thirty duals, twenty pimp stuff and nine power nine? Pretty inconspicuous in a world where MKM users have 10k sols items.
350 $ USeas? I guess I'll have to correct my forecast: Instead of the end of the year, USea is going to reach 450-500 $ around July and 750+$ at the end of the year.
Welcome to the death of Legacy, enjoy your stay!
Edit: As long as no external shock happens.
It's not just legacy though. Even modern costs a lot of money to play nowadays. When modern fetch is 60 euros each, I think it's a real problem. Not long ago, legacy fetch was 30 euros, so Modern is already becoming more expensive than legacy was only recently. This is all spiraling out of control. Let's just hope reprints for modern will occur sooner rather than later.
--
I think theft will be an ever increasing issue. Most people learn about magic at school. These kids are between 14 and 17, some even younger. Contrast the cost of a pimp deck at ~20.000 euros to the average allowance that kids get today (living in a financial crisis). If you're a kid from a family that is struggling to make ends meet, and you see all these incredibly expensive decks in a mass of people, it's understandable that the temptation might be too big for people not to do something they shouldn't. Every time the prices double, the risk of ownership increases. That risk includes theft at tournaments, silverfish running around in your cards (which are attracted to cardboard), breaking into your apartment, the constant fear of a price crash or the risk of your foils bending due to temperature change.
I, for one, welcome this event and don't fear it. Please, I'll do a rain dance if it would help lower the prices of staples.
-Matt
I only recall price crashes in mtg only occurring when something is banned (jtms), rotates out (goyf), is reprinted (thoughtseize) or is hyped up prior to the release of a set and is actually not good (countless mythics ect). Since most of these arent an issue in legacy, what would actually trigger a crash?
With prices where they are and Wizards' ignorance towards the issue, I think its only a matter of time before counterfeiting becomes an real issue.
This is a good point. I can imagine the following scenarios (some more likely than others):
1) Mostly the fear of reprints. Original foils are quiet resistant to reprints though. I think this effect is limited though.
2) Support for the prices evaporates, similar to how the Bitcoin lost its validity as a container of value.
3) Prices stay the same, but the liquidity of the market freezes entirely, since no one is willing to buy the cards for the asking price, but sellers aren't willing to take their loss and decide to stick with their cards. This leads to the slow demise of the community as more and more people get children, etc.
4) Transparency puts an end to the illusion of scarcity. Leaks of actual print runs appear. Articles about the number of staples in circulation contrasted against the number of players are written. The identification of the main card hoarders (Such as this alpha hoarder list attempt: http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/...ML/025627.html) or this graded alpha hoarder http://registry.beckett.com/set-deta...-hoard_2295948. And the market cornering practices of Scarcitygames are no longer tolerated. And IRS scrutiny against the main traders in the game happens.
5) Government regulation against unknowns in chance-games is implemented like it was in Japan (kompu gacha system): http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...nt-cracks-down
“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero.” (Voltaire, 1694-1778)
Standard has never interested me at all, so no, I'm not incinerating benjamins buying cards for that money pit of a format. The point I'm trying to make is that with Duals at 200+ there are plenty of long time players out there that have to choose between mortgage payments and fucking cardboard. Do I eat this week, or do I pick up a Force of Will (which is a perfectly reprintable card)? I'm happy to hear that your collection is deep enough that you don't have these concerns because you had a sick read on the legacy card market at the right time, but if things keep tending upward at the rate they are even you will be priced out someday.
Magic cards are quickly becoming a luxury item, and I'm not sure that's a good thing for those of us that want to play with them.
I haven't posted in a long time really.
I just figured I'd chime in and see how things were going. It's interesting to read the exact same arguments on "the sky is falling" vs "omg these prices keep going up" after several years.
Somehow I think your investments are safe.
I have been cashing out over the course of those years, mainly just because I'm 42 now and it just feels weird being the oldest in the room not counting the store owner. All of my friends have long moved on to other endeavors and even I am considering retiring soon. I love this game and have a lot of good memories with it. I hope all of you continue to do the same and enjoy the eternal formats for a long time to come. It seems to me after years of being "one of those speculators" who played quite regularly, the format is extremely stable. Maybe you'll run into me in a local store playing just for the heck of it. I kept Imperial Painter for laughs because I love making the guy who went Fetch, Trop, Delver just cringe when I pyroblast it game 1.
Cheers all : )
Once the bubble bursts (which is only a matter of time), most Legacy-only cards are going down as well, except for staples like Duals etc which are going to stay high. E.g. you can play the format without owning S&T, but try to play Legacy without a manabase (well, aside from Manaless Dredge).
@bruizar: I don't think the government would ever give a damn about Magic unless it's somehow involved in money laundring or whatever, which in itself is rather unlikely.
The two most likely cases how the bubble bursts are:
a) SCG dropping Legacy from the Open in some way to make more room for Modern or
b) the Chinese step up their game and flood the market with high-quality fakes.
a) is probably going to happen at some point in the future. b) is way harder to predict, but considering how prices rise across the board, it's going to attract more and more scum until people go professional with it.
I'm sorry but if you have to choose between paying a mortgage/ eating and buying cards then you probably shouldn't have any hobbies, let alone Magic.
When staples cost as much as fine art, you'd be forced to choose too, unless you were born rich or have some sick $15k / month job. In case nobody noticed yet, the price of cardboard has increased by an absurd percentage DESPITE the fact that we're in the worst economic downturn ever.
Quite true, but this is also because the people who make lots of money tend to do well whenever. Economic downturns don't REALLY matter in a lot of industries. People still need open heart surgery, legal defense, dental implants, etc. Certain investments also have been doing really well, sector dependent of course.
-Matt
I'm unsure of the point you are trying to make with the fine art reference. My point was that if you honestly had to choose between eating and paying rent and other real life needs or buying Magic cards, whatever the price, you need to take a look at yourself and get your priorities straight.
My point is that magic has reached a point where adults with decent jobs and decent incomes are forced to ask themselves exactly that question you proposed.
This is pretty thorough! I only have two things to add.
I am interested in your second point: "Support for the prices evaporates". I wonder what the upper ceiling is. As in, when will people say, 'I'm not paying that, the price is wrong'? Can you think of other instances where this happened on the hobby market?
As for your fourth point, "Transparency puts an end to the illusion of scarcity": if it didn't work for the Marxists, it won't work for MTG. That is to say, even if scarcity is 'revealed' to be an illusion (which I think everyone knows it is), we still ideologically buy into the game.
DDD / Death & Taxes
I think its interesting that people speculate that if it costs X amount of Money, they hobby, game or sport (or a combination) as MtG could be classified, will die.
Why hasnt horseback riding died? its way more expensive. Or powerboating? (or cocaine and Hookers?)
This may be the transition of the a part of the game from being a relatively cheap hobby, like soccer, to a more expensive one.
All the middleschoolers can still play standard.
Wizards is far from ignorant about the price of Legacy staples. IMO they want Legacy prices to be absurd. It gives people the idea that MtG can be seen as an investment, and encourages people to buy lots of cards now, since someday they'll be worth big money.
Legacy: Miracles
Most of the arguments the doomsday prophets are throwing out there mean modern is going down also. Goyf will be north of $200 and Dark Confidant will be $100 and Liliana will be $110. You could argue WotC is more incentivized to re-print modern staples but the effect will trickle into making legacy more affordable if that happens.
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