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Thread: Draws skewing Win% results?

  1. #1

    Draws skewing Win% results?

    When we examine the statistics for tournaments, we are approaching the match result of “draw” in a wrong way. The current system is allowing slower designs to show deceptively good results by showing a draw as half a win.

    First, intentional draw or actual draw? That information is probably not provided for Jared Sylva, Stephen Menendian, or the rest of us. No matter. If someone is X – going into the last round, or X-0 going into the last two round of a tournament with more than 6 rounds , it should be assumed that it is an intentional draw and match results should be ignored.

    Second, a drawn match is worth only 1 point and a win is worth 3. Therefore, if a drawn match is ‘played’, using the criteria above, should result in 33% of a win. If it is left out of the win%, then stats are not reflecting how well the deck performs at a tournament. In a tournament, a draw is much closer to a loss than a win, especially when you are more likely to play down against an opponent with a worse record once you have a draw.

    Third, if draws count as less than 50% win, then most decks for a tournament will show less than 50% win percentage – which is just fine as long as you know why: most deck win less than half the time due to draws.

    % of matches that were draws from Jared Sylva’s SCG breakdown
    Countertop 10.3%
    Zoo 6.1
    Merfolk 1.4
    Reanimator 3.4
    Ad Nauseum 3.4
    New Horizons 4.2
    Goblins 5.2
    Blue Lands 15.4
    Charbelcher 1.8 ( how the hell did charbelcher draw if there weren’t any in the T8?)
    Stax 8.8
    Dredge 6.1
    Faeries 10
    Landstill 6.9

    Burn 0 ( now that’s what it should be!)
    Elves 0
    Eva Green 5
    G/W/B Rock 0
    Mono Blue Cntrl. 10

    I think that any deck that any deck with more than 4 or 5% of the matches as draws, has artificially inflated “Win % no mirrors.”

    I suspect that some of the Zoo and Goblin draws are due to Price of Progresses to avoid losses instead of time restrictions.

    I appreciate all the time put in by Jared, Steve, and others for battling the fierce amount of numbers. We all owe you for your work.

  2. #2
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    Re: Draws skewing Win% results?

    Perhaps the problem is that if you only get one draw, it's nearly as good as a win in terms of points and relative points. But, if you get two draws, then you're only slightly better off than someone with two losses. Overall, I think that it makes sense to care about how many points a deck can get, because in the long-run average of a tournament or season, that is what matters the most.

  3. #3

    Re: Draws skewing Win% results?

    Quote Originally Posted by Laertes View Post
    I suspect that some of the Zoo and Goblin draws are due to Price of Progresses to avoid losses instead of time restrictions.

    I appreciate all the time put in by Jared, Steve, and others for battling the fierce amount of numbers. We all owe you for your work.
    I don't know how often matches get PoPed out. Winning 1-0-2 (2 draws) is still a match win.
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    Owner, Tales of Adventure Comics and Games, Coopersburg, PA

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