Alright,
As a budget player, I am always about getting the most out of my buck when it comes to Magic.
Is it worth getting Vengevines now or should I wait after its rotation (or Fauna Shaman's rotation)? Would its price go up or go down after rotation/in a long run?
Is Vengevine be the new Tarmogoyf or the next Psychatog?
Unless you're playing the deck, I'd wait.
If you're a 'budget' player, why are you even considering buying a $40 creature that's good in one deck? 0_o
Vengevine is definitely the real deal, but it's price is currently pretty inflated from Type 2. I'm not saying it won't go higher, but now is not the time to buy in for a long term investment.
Worth the investment? If you don't have other staples yet, no. If you do, then go for it. They will be good in Standard as long as they are legal, and they will probably be amazing in Extended for the next four years if you're into that kind of thing. There may come a time when they drop to about $25, but I doubt it will go below that, and they will probably begin to rise steadily after that unless some other Survival shenanigans outclass it in the future.
They actually appear to be cheaper now than they were when the set came out - they are readily had for ~$35 all over eBay.
This would be the best route unless you already have the cards mentioned above. Survival is far from budget though due to the cards that are typically used (Duals, Blue based has FoW, White generally has Retainers). Plus as mentioned, Vengevine is only used in the one deck currently and the others would have much more uses.
Also, I don't think Standard is very budget friendly these days.
tl;dr: As the others said, wait unless you're playing the deck.
Like the esteemed posters above have mentioned, Vengevines are played in one deck. The standard influence is still pretty heavy so I'd probably wait until it rotates (that'll take some time though), unless you want to play it straight away in UG madness survival or WG survival. Also, it is unlikely to ever become a "staple", because its not like goyf where you can splash for it/slap it into any deck. It needs to be in a specific deck to be good. I don't think I've ever seen it in any deck other than survival. I'd rather put the money into the other staples first.
QFT, this made me smile. 2 thumbs up for what I believe is a very sensible post. I mean seriously, turn 1 basking rootwalla? That happens way too often for my liking, even more often than Survival -> venges, alpha strike finish.It was $30 when RGB Survival was decent, then anywhere from $12-20 when Zoo and Merfolk exploded, now $40 with the temporary success of Legacy's most gimmicky deck. When Madness settles into tier 1.5 (when the format adjusts) or 2 (when a nonblack hoser is printed), Survival will be back down to $25-30 and then a stronger buy.
I'm refraining from buying Survival because 1) I think it's very likely to be banned as a cheap (recurrable) tutor that also serves as an engine, even if it only digs for creatures and 2) it isn't a tier 1 deck without Vengevine or Loyal Retainers, two cards I believe to be overpriced right now. But on its own merits, Survival is a powerful card that isn't horribly overpriced (at least not anymore than Entomb was 6 months ago).
I think it's more likely to retain its value than Vengevine; even though the latter is a strong card, it isn't on the level of Survival. Moreover, a card that has been cracked open many times in a recent set--even as a mythic rare--is much more readily available than one that was printed 12 years ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall considerably after rotation. Consider that Noble Hierarch and Knight of the Reliquary see significantly more play in non-Standard formats than Vengevine, with the Hierarch seeing considerable play in even Vintage, and that they are generally found in multiple archetypes, unlike Vengevine. They are also found in the third set of their respect blocks, which is noticeable for draft purposes, and I believe that the Alara block was drafted less than the Zendikar block. Yet both cards are at barely half their peak value less than 1 week into the rotation.
Granted, Vengevine is a mythic rare, but that shouldn't affect how much the relative price changes (as a percentage of its value). And it may start seeing play in other archetypes, which I find doubtful, as it's a more narrow card than either the Hierarch or Knight. But even allowing that, I don't see what conditions woiuld make Vengevine a good investment to either increase or even retain value in the long term.
I guess if Primeval Titans doesn't get banned in T2, Vengevines will drop in price. Titan decks eat Vengevine decks raw and in one chunk.
Just wait a bit.
This looks like a job for me.
Most of my posts will be written from my phone, so please excuse the eventual lack of proper typing.
We don't know the metagame yet, but I'm reasonably sure it won't be just vengevine decks losing to titan decks.
My guess is it won't drop significantly in price before it rotates out of standard. I'd say it's safe to buy them, and then sell shortly afterwards if you get bored to the survideck.
You can't get bored of SotF-decks.
If Dave Price can get bored of Survival decks, anyone can.
“It's possible. But it involves... {checks archives} Nature's Revolt, Opalescence, two Unstable Shapeshifters (one of which started as a Doppelganger), a Tide, an animated land, a creature with Fading, a Silver Wyvern, some way to get a creature into play in response to stuff, some way to get a land into play in response to stuff (a different land from the animated land), and one heck of a Rube Goldberg timing diagram.”
-David DeLaney
It's true that it lost some support, but it also gained some support in Trinket Mage -> Memnite. I think some kind of UGx (Red for Sparkmage probably since you can grab Collar with TM) Fauna deck may be pretty hot. It also gets access to two different on-color fetches, so the manabase would be pretty solid.
I wouldn't invest, UG madness is just a deck on a hype that will be absorbed in 2 months, and then disappear as quickly.
Staples are the way to go if you're willing to toss money into cards.
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