[Free Article] Survival: The Experts, The Engine, and Legacy's Future

[Nessaja]

Nessaja:

I don't think that price has that big of an impact on the field. Perhaps if Imperial Painter was the de facto DtB you could make that claim, but a $160 playset really isn't that much to talk about when you consider most Legacy decks are easily $1500. A playset of vines will cost you more and yet you see a lot of those. No one is going to go to a tournament with a deck they don't think can win.

You will need to quote me on me claiming otherwise because I think you're reading things that aren't there.

If anything, the MT ban was detrimental to the format. One, it removed a pillar that could have been used to keep Vengevival in check without any major changes to the format but also because it actually made combo harder to beat.

And combo will still hold Vengevine in check as will Landstill variants. People just haven't picked it up yet.

I say this because post MT ban saw a lot of different combo decks crop up, from SnT to Shelldrazi to TES. It was much easier to hate AnT than to hate half a dozen different combo decks with different strategies. These decks were slightly subpar compared with AnT, but each requires different boarding and strategies.

And ANT had answers against every answer you could put up with a Mystical tutor for an answer. The state of combo right now is much more healthy then it was pre-ban.

[voltron00x]

Nessaja, where are you located?

[Nessaja]

The Netherlands sir. Yesterday I saw dozens of Survival-Vine decks get obliterated by Jacestill, TES and other combo decks (Enchantress worked too). It had by far the largest percentage of the tournament (Dutch Championship) but only 1 deck in the top 8. Most of the Survivines were at the low tables because everyone hated it out or just.. simply, played a deck better suited for the new meta.

Place 1 and 2 were ANT and TES, for reference.

[frogboy]

The odd thing is that your position re: Mystical is that the potential of the deck for format domination was too much so it should be banned (and that people were too incompetent to realize it), and yet re: Survival, you take the opinion that the deck is actually dominating because of people's incompetence and that it doesn't need to be banned. So when people don't dominate a format with a card you think is dominant, they're incompetent, but when they do dominate with a deck, they're incompetent. Your argument then is basically that everyone is incompetent at all times, so if that's the case, why manage the format at all? The end result regardless is still mass incompetence.

no hard feelings; this is basically true. Still, my position is that once people figured out what was up with Mystical that they'd be unstoppable (hyperbole etc etc) and that once people pull their heads out of their collective asses they'll stop losing to Survival. I think Mystical was driving towards an equilibrium where it was too good and that Survival isn't particularly good at equilibrium.

Basically, Survival is close enough to good and is easy enough to play that it's annihilating all of the decks that I hate from a theoretical standpoint (Zoo, Merfolk, etc) and because I think those decks are bad anyway I don't get real bent out of shape when they get blown out of the water. I think that it's damn strange that Survival is the combo deck du jour when Tendrils exists but I guess Survival is better against Counterbalance and the fact that Survival is weak to Tendrils is irrelevant because no one is playing Tendrils.

[BKclassic]

And you're right, there *IS* no justification, in the tournament results, for the ban on Mystical Tutor.

This is what is wrong with your post. There is evidence in the top 8s. Ironically, you said it in your own article, "Go look again at the StarCityGames.com Legacy Open where LSV lost in the quarterfinals; review how much hate was in that Top 8, Mystical or no Mystical to fight against it."

While I could be wrong with my theories about "the gentleman's agreement," if I am wrong, it only means that Mystical Tutor is more ban worthy because even with its small presence, it demanded an egregious amount of hate to keep it at bay. If Mystical Tutor decks weren't warping the metagame, why did people continue to pack so much hate? Before Survival came along, the main effects of the banning of Mystical Tutor were that Show and Tell replace Reanimator, TES replace Saito Ad Nauseam, Lands went away from the fore front, sideboard space opened up. Essentially, the combo decks became slower and more interactive and gave decks more breathing room. How was this not great for the format?

[voltron00x]

Right, the point is that Reanimator and ANT were hated right out of the top 16 at most American legacy tournament the month before the ban went into effect. When LSV isn't winning with what is supposed to be the best deck because people have relevant SB cards all of a sudden, a deck probably isn't ban-worthy.

[voltron00x]

The Netherlands sir. Yesterday I saw dozens of Survival-Vine decks get obliterated by Jacestill, TES and other combo decks (Enchantress worked too). It had by far the largest percentage of the tournament (Dutch Championship) but only 1 deck in the top 8. Most of the Survivines were at the low tables because everyone hated it out or just.. simply, played a deck better suited for the new meta.

Place 1 and 2 were ANT and TES, for reference.

I assumed you were from Europe but didn't want to stereotype.

Legacy is an odd bird. In Europe, Tendrils decks have always out-performed compared to America; the Mystical ban has far more support there than in the US. B/c more people are playing Tendrils and have always played it, I think Survival is going to be less relevant. That is going to suppress the performance of Survival. Both Max and I believe TES, and other Tendrils decks, have very good match-ups against Survival.

(side note, the same trends are true in Vintage, where Fish and Tendrils have done better the past two years than in the states, and in some areas, where Workshops have done far better than in the states)

[Smmenen]

Matt: good work in this article.

In the final paragraph of the article you linked which I wrote, I said:

Why does the banning of Mystical Tutor matter? What’s the harm?

One of the things I really liked about Legacy is that every deck had a bad matchup. This feature of the format promotes balance. Zoo was weak to ANT, but strong against Merfolk. Merfolk was good against Reanimator and CounterTop, but weak to Goblins. And so on. Whenever you take out a card like Mystical Tutor, which supports spell-based combination decks, you take out a potential metagame answer. Every metagame player has a role, including Burn. These decks keep other decks honest. While I don’t think that Legacy is going to become an imbalanced format as a result of this banning, it’s not healthy to take out answers that can help the format adjust if something were to go wrong. It’s like taking away from of the format’s natural antibodies if a virus were to sweep through the format. Diversity is a natural strength, and reducing format wide diversity with this banning has the potential to harm the format in the long-run. This kind of decision also sets a bad precedent in this regard. The DCI should be humble both in its ability to correctly manage the Banned and Restricted List and in recognition that such management can have unintended consequences to be concerned about. That’s why the DCI should only ban cards if there is strong evidence to support it.

I think my warning has proved prescient.

I just hope the DCI realizes that if it continues to ban, it may require MORE bannings, not less down the road. I would vote to unban Mystical Tutor.

[kusumoto]

I think it's surprising that so few people want a mystical tutor unbanning. Nobody was complaining before it was banned and now everyone is terrified of it coming off the list.

[Dia_Bot]

i think it's surprising that so few people want a mystical tutor unbanning. Nobody was complaining before it was banned and now everyone is terrified of it coming off the list.

qft!

[SpikeyMikey]

I think it's surprising that so few people want a mystical tutor unbanning. Nobody was complaining before it was banned and now everyone is terrified of it coming off the list.

I think a lot of people have convinced themselves that it deserved a ban. When it was announced, it was a major shock. There was no discussion about its brokenness on the forums. Personally, I wish they'd run this format the way they do standard. You didn't see them banning cards out of Jund. Psychatog never got the hammer. It took a deck as thoroughly dominating as affinity to get a response out of the DCI.

[JosephBono]

This is what is wrong with your post. There is evidence in the top 8s. Ironically, you said it in your own article, "Go look again at the StarCityGames.com Legacy Open where LSV lost in the quarterfinals; review how much hate was in that Top 8, Mystical or no Mystical to fight against it."

While I could be wrong with my theories about "the gentleman's agreement," if I am wrong, it only means that Mystical Tutor is more ban worthy because even with its small presence, it demanded an egregious amount of hate to keep it at bay. If Mystical Tutor decks weren't warping the metagame, why did people continue to pack so much hate? Before Survival came along, the main effects of the banning of Mystical Tutor were that Show and Tell replace Reanimator, TES replace Saito Ad Nauseam, Lands went away from the fore front, sideboard space opened up. Essentially, the combo decks became slower and more interactive and gave decks more breathing room. How was this not great for the format?

Mystical Tutor decks didn't comprise a "small presence" at the SCG Seattle open. Reanimator was the most popular archetype with 13.23% of the field and ANT was tied for third most popular archetype with 7.94% of the field (after Merfolk, tied with Zoo). If you lump Mystical Tutor decks together you would expect an "average" performance for them to put 2 decks in the top 8, with a dominating performance being 4 or more decks in the top 8. Instead we see just one deck in the top 8 (and piloted by, argubally the best player in the room). Seems like the deck choices made by the rest of the field (both in deck selection, optimization, and sideboard hate) were able to successfully handle the Mystical Tutor menace.

Reference: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/l...n_Seattle.html

My personal opinion is that Mystical Tutor decks did not have tournament results that were dominant enough to demand a banning, and that the metagame was able and willing to successfully adapt to the presence of MT decks without significantly shrinking the set of viable decks. Right now Survival decks are putting up dominant results, and so far the metagame hasn't self corrected. I think Wizards can afford to wait a few more months to see if the metagame self-corrects, but if we're still in a state where Survival decks are still putting up these kinds of numbers in February or so Wizards will need to take action of some sort.

[SpikeyMikey]

Sorry Nessaja, I was thinking of BKClassics post. Doing this on my phone so it's tough to review the thread while posting.

[SurFitOfTheVine]

What does MT unbanning have to do with the subject of the poll? How will the results determine what people think about Survival/Vengevine if the poll gives them the option to vote for MT unban? That poll is stupid.

[majikal]

What does MT unbanning have to do with the subject of the poll? How will the results determine what people think about Survival/Vengevine if the poll gives them the option to vote for MT unban? That poll is stupid.

Did you even read the article? Some people believe that unbanning Mystical Tutor will correct the imbalance in the current format and return it to the paper-rock-scissors dynamic that existed before Survival took over. Combo beats Survival (which isn't always the case currently, without MT), Survival beats Countertop, Countertop beats Combo.

[Tacosnape]

Did you even read the article? Some people believe that unbanning Mystical Tutor will correct the imbalance in the current format and return it to the paper-rock-scissors dynamic that existed before Survival took over. Combo beats Survival (which isn't always the case currently, without MT), Survival beats Countertop, Countertop beats Combo.

Except Countertop really doesn't beat combo with Mystical Tutor in the format.

I, frankly, hated the era of every deck being combo. I play in a metagame that's literally 80% combo decks in the post MT age, and will probably be closer to 95% if Mystical were to be unbanned (Because, at this point, I'd go back to playing Reanimator instantly.)

Unbanning Mystical isn't necessary for either Storm Combo or Reanimator to function just fine. Storm Combo still strikes once or twice in top 16's on a regular basis, and the new Welder Reanimator list (Which is pretty amazing) and my Mono Black one can both handle over half of the format.

Mystical Tutor was banned (Or should stay banned, rather) because it took Black out of the format as a viable way to keep combo decks in check. Thoughtseize was a terrible, unplayable card when Mystical Tutor existed, except for IN the combo decks themselves. I personally like the format when Thoughtseize is good.

EDIT: Also, how exactly did the balance exist before Survival took over? Before Survival took over there was only one deck in the format - Reanimator. You played it or you played something that beat it (Like me, and I got punished in SCG Atlanta for it.) Same's kind of true of Survival now. Balance hasn't existed in the format for awhile.

[SurFitOfTheVine]

Did you even read the article? Some people believe that unbanning Mystical Tutor will correct the imbalance in the current format and return it to the paper-rock-scissors dynamic that existed before Survival took over. Combo beats Survival (which isn't always the case currently, without MT), Survival beats Countertop, Countertop beats Combo.

I still don't think it belongs in the poll. MT unbanning would also bring Reanimator back. Most that will vote couldn't care less about Survival/Vengevine. They just want their decks back.

[majikal]

Never said I agreed with the sentiment that bringing MT back would fix things, just that some people believe that. I think we should wait a few months and see what happens, myself.

[voltron00x]

I'm not really interested in rehashing metagame numbers that disprove what you say about reanimator, as the articles I linked to do that for me (thanks, Steve Menendian!). Suffice it to say that I don't believe what you think you saw, is what actually happened, outside of a small handful of tournaments. Was Reanimator popular? Yes. Did I watch my exact 75 from the SCG Open in Philly win a GPT that was 40% Reanimator without dropping a match? Sure did.

Then again, as I said, there is hardly enough data to be conclusive either way. Much is up to our own interpretation and bias.

For instance, where I may see a washed up, overweight, basket case masquerading as an elite athlete, the Redskins see a $78 Million QB of the future.

[SpikeyMikey]

I'm not really interested in rehashing metagame numbers that disprove what you say about reanimator, as the articles I linked to do that for me (thanks, Steve Menendian!). Suffice it to say that I don't believe what you think you saw, is what actually happened, outside of a small handful of tournaments. Was Reanimator popular? Yes. Did I watch my exact 75 from the SCG Open in Philly win a GTP that was 40% Reanimator without dropping a match? Sure did.

Then again, as I said, there is hardly enough data to be conclusive either way. Much is up to our own interpretation and bias.

For instance, where I may see a washed up, overweight, basket case masquerading as an elite athlete, the Redskins see a $78 Million QB of the future.

And even they recognized that he can't run a 2 minute drill. But at least you aren't stuck with Cutler or Favre. Green Bay is probably going to take the division and it won't be because we're on top of our game, it'll be because we don't turn the ball over 4 to 5 times a game.