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Thread: [Deck] Goblins

  1. #4761
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by Remy View Post
    You can also vial him in after declaring attackers and tap all their blockers lol. Seems too cute though, not sure it's a great plan to rely on.
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  2. #4762
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by zulander View Post
    You can also vial him in after declaring attackers and tap all their blockers lol. Seems too cute though, not sure it's a great plan to rely on.
    Might as well do it during their end step or when they enter combat.. but that's considering that you have Vial at two counter. Without Vial this card is VERY bad, because it's super conditional.

  3. #4763
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    Maniac and Shrieking Mogg are each a little too cute. Maniac is only good against Goyf and KotR. That's about it. The Shrieker only works with Vial @2 or *shudder* Goblin Wizard. I can envision far more scenarios where these cards suck than scenarios where they're on par with the power level of Legacy.

  4. #4764

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    I had one 'floating' spot in the MD that I decided to devote to the 2nd Chieftain.

    4 AEther Vial
    4 Goblin Lackey
    4 Gempalm Incinerator
    4 Goblin Warchief
    4 Goblin Matron
    4 Goblin Ringleader
    3 Goblin Piledriver
    3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
    2 Goblin Chieftain
    1 Skirk Prospector
    1 Stingscourger
    1 Tin Street Hooligan
    1 Goblin Sharpshooter
    1 Krenko, Mob Boss
    1 Siege-Gang Commander

    4 Wasteland
    4 Cavern of Souls
    4 Bloodstained Mire
    3 Scalding Tarn
    3 Mountain
    2 Plateau
    1 Taiga
    1 Karakas

    Sideboard:15
    3 Rest in Peace
    3 Pyrokinesis
    1 Krosan Grip
    2 Ancient Grudge
    3 Red Elemental Blast
    1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
    1 Boartusk Liege
    1 Umezawa's Jitte

    Round 1: vs monoR Goblins
    G1 my opponent started with Lackey, while all I had was Aether Vial. Down came SGC, but he missed his second land drop! I played Piledriver as a 1/2 wall, then managed to gempalm his SGC off when he missed his 2nd land drop again on the third turn. From there I eventually drew lands and I felt very lucky to get a win. I sb's out 3 Lackey, TSH and Sting for Jitte, Pyro and Liege on the grounds that this would be an attrition battle. In hindsight I should have taken out Thalias. He ported me to disrupt me for a while, but eventually I had sharpshooter, krenko and Jitte all in play.
    2-0

    Round 2: vs BG pox/loam
    Both games in this matchup came down to me having Haste-lords. G1 I blew him out with matron-stingscourger to bounce his Tombstalker. I SB'd in Thalia and Rest in Peace. G2 he came within a turn of stabilising, but haste let me swarm him in both games.
    2-0

    Round 3: vs 12lords merfolk
    Other people told me here that I wasn't favoured in this matchup, although I disagreed, on the grounds that I had removal and he didn't. G1 I blew him out. G2 and 3 I mulled to 6 and 5 respectively, then never saw a Cavern in either game and struggled to get to 3 mana, so I died horribly. This match REALLY made me wish that my 'floating' MD spot was the 23rd land. 22 land is fine with a 7 card hand, but when you mulligan down then you really want more land in there.
    1-2

    Round 4: vs Storm
    I lost the roll, and started with a Lackey after my opponent mainphased a brainstorm. Then I died on his second turn. I boarded in the 4th Thalia for SGC, feeling very vulnerable. On his first turn he Therapied me for Thalia, hitting one. Then he spent his second turn casting draw spells and killed me on his third turn.
    0-2

    Thoughts on the deck and matchups:
    1. I really wanted the 23rd land, principally to let me mulligan and still have a hand that will let me cast my spells.

    2. Thalia is *really* good vs a bunch of decks, particularly our worst matchups. She continues to displace Mogg War Marshall in my build.

    3. Red Elemental Blast was terrible. Plus, there's not enough hate for storm in my SB. These should have been Chalices.

    4. Karakas is randomly good with Thalia/Kreniko, but *really* hard to justify price wise for such an incremental deck improvement.

    5. My manabase was fine. I got wastelanded a bit, but more other decks want to operate off more land than we do, so usually they are hurting themselves.

    So going forward I think my deck should be:
    - 1 Goblin Chieftain
    + 1 Mountain
    SB - 3 Red Elemental Blast
    SB + 3 Chalice of the Void

    4 AEther Vial
    4 Goblin Lackey
    4 Gempalm Incinerator
    4 Goblin Warchief
    4 Goblin Matron
    4 Goblin Ringleader
    3 Goblin Piledriver
    3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
    1 Skirk Prospector
    1 Stingscourger
    1 Tin Street Hooligan
    1 Goblin Chieftain
    1 Goblin Sharpshooter
    1 Krenko, Mob Boss
    1 Siege-Gang Commander

    4 Wasteland
    4 Cavern of Souls
    4 Bloodstained Mire
    3 Scalding Tarn
    4 Mountain
    2 Plateau
    1 Taiga
    1 Karakas

    Sideboard:15
    3 Rest in Peace
    3 Pyrokinesis
    1 Krosan Grip
    2 Ancient Grudge
    3 Chalice of the Void
    1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
    1 Boartusk Liege
    1 Umezawa's Jitte

  5. #4765

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    I think that we will play a 1x Legion Loyalist in the future:

    Cost: R
    Legion Loyalist
    Goblin Soldier
    Haste
    Battalion - Whenever Legion Loyalist and at least 2 other creatures attack, creatures you control gain first strike and trample and can't be blocked by tokens.
    1/1

    Nice Trick! Go go go Piledriver trample first strike! :)

    Source: http://www.wizards.com/magic/tcg/art...gatecrash/cig#

  6. #4766

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Minosse: welcome to 2 pages ago. From where I sit it might be a one of, and might make 4 Piledrivers correct. Other than that, not much has changed.
    Last edited by magicmerl; 01-20-2013 at 08:25 PM.

  7. #4767

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by jrw1985 View Post
    Some quick math. Some important implications!

    If you want to make a land drop each turn for the first 4 turns, you should be running 23 lands. I think making 4 land drops is a strategically significant number for us, considering our most important mid-game card is cc4 (Ringleader) and Wasteland means we are often shorting ourselves also. Making our land drops is very important.

    On the play, cards drawn thru turn 4 = 10
    On the draw, cards drawn thru turn 4 = 11
    I disagree. At least, I agree with your conclusion that 23 lands is the right number to run, but disagree with your mathematical reasoning to reach that conclusion.

    I think that what is critical is making the third land drop by turn 3 (for warchiefs, matrons etc). But let's continue with a breakdown of your maths, where we want the probability of having drawn at least 4 lands by the 4th turn:
    With 22 lands
    53.9% -- 22 lands in the deck, On the play (or on the draw, having mulled to 6)
    63.7% -- 22 lands in the deck, On the draw
    With 23 lands
    58.6% -- 23 lands in the deck, On the play (or on the draw, having mulled to 6)
    68.3% -- 23 lands in the deck, On the draw

    That maths you were doing was, well, irrelevant. The above percentages are what matters.

    To continue on, I think that what *really* matters is getting to 3 land on turn 3. The following probabilities all relate to that 3x3.
    With 22 lands
    62.3% -- 22 lands in the deck, On the play, mulled to 6 (or on the draw, having mulled to 5)
    71.9% -- 22 lands in the deck, On the play (or on the draw, having mulled to 6)
    79.6% -- 22 lands in the deck, On the draw
    With 23 lands
    66.2% -- 23 lands in the deck, On the play, mulled to 6 (or on the draw, having mulled to 5)
    75.5% -- 23 lands in the deck, On the play (or on the draw, having mulled to 6)
    82.8% -- 23 lands in the deck, On the draw
    And just for completeness, with 24 lands
    70.0% -- 24 lands in the deck, On the play, mulled to 6 (or on the draw, having mulled to 5)
    78.9% -- 24 lands in the deck, On the play (or on the draw, having mulled to 6)
    85.6% -- 24 lands in the deck, On the draw

    My personal threshold for percentages in these situations is 66%, which means that in a three game match your mana will show up in two of the games.

    So 22 lands is really not enough if you mulligan on the play.

    MORE IMPORTANTLY
    If you run 24 lands MD it is entirely mathematically reasonable to side OUT 2 lands when on the draw.
    If you run less than 24 Lands MD it is entirely reasonable to side IN lands when on the play, up to 24 lands.
    That balances your chances of being manascrewed, but greatly increases your chances of being mana flooded in the 24 land hands.

    I'm going to start brewing lists with 23 lands MD and 1 SB. The SB land I'm going to start testing is Smoldering Spires because it adds utility when on the play following up a T1 Lackey.
    The trouble with this approach is that there's no way the human brain can experientially detect a change from 62% to 66%. It's such a small number that it's experimentally indetectible even if you are playing over a thousand games, and even then there are other interfering variables (such as the cards your opponent played in those games). You are much more likely to use a logical fallacy such as confirmation bias to pretend your results give you the conclusion you wanted to believe all along.

    Another thing I was thinking about what the number of Cheat cards we need to run. The Cheat cards that matter are Lackey, Vial, and Instigator. I generally always mulligan to a Cheat card because they are what drives the Goblin engine. Without them you are just stuck with wayyy too many expensive cards in hand. So I want 1 Cheat in my opening 7. So, 1/7th of my deck must be Cheat cards.
    Again, a flawed probability system. Here's the real probabilities:
    52.4% -- Having at least one Lackey/Vial in an opening hand of 5 cards
    59.3% -- Having at least one Lackey/Vial in an opening hand of 6 cards (80.1% if prepared to mull to 5 for it)
    65.4% -- Having at least one Lackey/Vial in an opening hand of 7 cards (93.3% if prepared to mull to 5 for it)
    Vs with the 9th 'cheat' card
    57.0% -- Having at least one Lackey/Vial/Instigator in an opening hand of 5 cards
    64.0% -- Having at least one Lackey/Vial/Instigator in an opening hand of 6 cards (84.5% if prepared to mull to 5 for it)
    70.0% -- Having at least one Lackey/Vial/Instigator in an opening hand of 7 cards (95.4% if prepared to mull to 5 for it)

    So if you are prepared to mulligan aggressively to 5 for a 'cheat' card, adding in a Warren Instigator reduces your 'failures' from 6.7% down to 4.6%. But you have to run Warren Instigator.

  8. #4768
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Skinbrand Goblin 1R 2/1
    Creature - Goblin Warrior
    Bloodrush R , Discard Skinbrand Goblin: Target attacking creature gets +2/+1 until end of turn.

    A pump spell that that only be cast on attacking creatures, is uncounterable and can be played as 2/1 goblin creature. Good enough to see play? Looks strong on an Instigator and allows Lackey to kill a shaman.

  9. #4769
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by Avatara View Post
    Skinbrand Goblin 1R 2/1
    Creature - Goblin Warrior
    Bloodrush R , Discard Skinbrand Goblin: Target attacking creature gets +2/+1 until end of turn.

    A pump spell that that only be cast on attacking creatures, is uncounterable and can be played as 2/1 goblin creature. Good enough to see play? Looks strong on an Instigator and allows Lackey to kill a shaman.
    That pretty much sums up ALL of its applications. Too narrow for me...
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  10. #4770
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by Avatara View Post
    Skinbrand Goblin 1R 2/1
    Creature - Goblin Warrior
    Bloodrush R , Discard Skinbrand Goblin: Target attacking creature gets +2/+1 until end of turn.

    A pump spell that that only be cast on attacking creatures, is uncounterable and can be played as 2/1 goblin creature. Good enough to see play? Looks strong on an Instigator and allows Lackey to kill a shaman.
    at least 90% of the time this is just Goblin Piker.

  11. #4771
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    or a worse giant growth.

    This set is disappointing for goblin players. All we get is a loyalist that *might* see a 1x in some builds.

    To think they got our hopes up by spoiling a card with "tin street" in its name really early on.

  12. #4772
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by GoboLord View Post
    That pretty much sums up ALL of its applications. Too narrow for me...
    My thoughts exactly.
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  13. #4773
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    hello, im new to the source and this is my goblins list. Suggestions are very welcome

    4 lackey
    4 matron
    4 ringleader
    4 warchief
    3 mwm
    2 piledriver
    2 sgc
    3 incenerator
    3 weirding
    1 sharpshooter
    1 chieftain
    1 stingscourger
    1 scrapper
    4 vial

    4 wasteland
    3 port
    4 badlands
    5 mountain
    3 cavern
    4 assorted red fetches

    sb
    3 cabal
    3 chalice
    3 relic
    2 perish
    2 REB
    1 virtue's ruin
    1 piledriver

  14. #4774
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    you're missing krenko buddy.

  15. #4775

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    been away for a while, so sorry if this discussion was already left behind...

    @Ancient Tomb: I've being trying out a single one on playtesting for a while. Just one because I have only one, and also because I have only two ports :P. It does set you up for some nice starters, but it won't help at all if our current problem is connecting lackey (as in post shaman metagame).

    I see the point of shaman ruining our mana denial plan, but maybe the answer would be to remove shaman faster, not to drop the plan at all.

  16. #4776
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by Cleston View Post
    @Ancient Tomb: I've being trying out a single one on playtesting for a while. Just one because I have only one, and also because I have only two ports :P. It does set you up for some nice starters, but it won't help at all if our current problem is connecting lackey (as in post shaman metagame).
    The problem that I have with Ancient Tomb is that goblins is often a mid-late game deck with some early game options. By the time that you reach this phase Ancient Tomb will have cost you a lot of life. Warchief + Ancient Tomb isn't the most synergistic combination either.

  17. #4777

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by movingtonewao View Post
    you're missing krenko buddy.
    And the 4th Cavern. But other than that, the only questionable card is black, largely because it's an underplayed colour.

  18. #4778
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    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by magicmerl View Post
    And the 4th Cavern. But other than that, the only questionable card is black, largely because it's an underplayed colour.
    i can switch to the green version whenever i want. How do you think about running white goblins?

  19. #4779

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    Quote Originally Posted by goblinsplayer View Post
    i can switch to the green version whenever i want. How do you think about running white goblins?
    I'm in favour of it. The decks which are just flat out faster than us can be interacted with by white cards like Thalia and Rest in Peace.

  20. #4780

    Re: [Deck] Goblins

    And do not forget Swords to Plowshares.

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