I think ideally I would be running 1 more pyrokinesis/thalias, but I never thought to run the 4th RiP. It's by far my favorite gy hate and gives rug and bg fits, sided it in against the junk deck with kotr. One thing to remember is you don't want to side in a ton of non-goblin cards and take out goblins. 34 goblin cards, my ringleaders were hot all night, which was huge. Won an underground sea, which is nice since my collection is pretty garbage when sitting across from an all foil, asian text deck.Originally Posted by goblinsplayer
Thanks, this is excellent.
Overall conclusions
1. 2 SGC looks like a better finishing package than a 1/1 split of SGC/Krenko. I will make this change to my list now.
2. Mono-coloured seems much more consistent than splashing, but that's possibly a factor of selection bia by the pilots (i.e. the people running the mono-coloured lists have been playing basically the same list for several years, giving them a significant experience advantage vs the field). More investigation needed.
3. Stingscourger should be in your MD as a 1-of. Chieftain, Sharpshooter and Prospector should be in your 75, but not necessarily MD. Data not presented for Tin Street Hooligan and Tuktuk Scrapper, but my gut feeling is that they fall into the second category rather than the first.
4. The right mix of two-drops is still undetermined out of PD, MWM, Thalia and Instigator (Gempalm and Tarfire seem to compete for these slots too...). Combined with #3 above makes me think that perhaps the right direction is to streamline the deck and cut the number of tutor targets right down, fitting in more 2-drop goblins?
Now for the play-by-play:
Total number of lands
Since 22 and 23 lands both outperformed the average, I think that the only conclusion we can reach is to not run other land counts :). Although there is a slight preference for 22 lands by 0.71%.
Lands: Rishadan Port, Fetchlands, Dual lands
You have 166 matches in total, and only 84 of them are accounted for here in the 3 and 4 port categories. That means that 82 matches must have been played in the 0, 1 and 2 Port decks. There can't be an insufficient number of games played (or the 3 port lists wouldn't have made it). So the only conclusion I can reach is that the 0 port lists have a high variance of results.
I think that a high Fetchland count is the flipside of running Rishadan Ports (i.e. running no Fetches is likely to be the same lists as the people running Ports). Is it possible to explore the 0 port data subset in more detail? It seems like there are three groups of decks: Mono-coloured, Multi-coloured with poor results, Multi-coloured with good results. This means that even when the bad multi-coloured lists are weeded out, an averaged list combining the mono-coloured and multi-coloured results will be inferior to either. As Malcolm Gladwell says, there is no perfect spaghetti sauce. There are only perfect spaghetti sauces.
Two Drops: Piledriver, Mogg War Marshal
"Piledriver Interpretation of results: Playing either 3 or 4 Piledrivers does not have any notable impact on the win-%."
Actually, because the win pct is so low for 3-4 PD, running 0-1-2 must not have a significant impact on winning either. This makes me think that running FEWER Piledrivers is an unexplored space for goblins in search of alternatives which will provide increased win %. There are several cards competing at the 2 drop: PD, MWM, Thalia, Instigator. And we only really have about 8-9 slots to devote to them, since they compete for deck space with each other on the curve.
"MWM Interpretation of results: Results are hard to interpret since most of the 20 records with 4 MWMs came from the same player. "
Good point. And 3MWM had a negative pct relative to the average. So MAYBE 4 MWM is correct, or maybe it's not a good card...
Tutor Targets: Stingscourger, Chieftain, Sharpshooter, Skirk Prospector
- Yep, 1 Stingscourger is the way to go.
- despite the lack of data I do think that this shows that Chieftain is best as a one-of tutor target, and isn't even necessary MD.
- Again, Sharpshooter is a fringe MD tutor target. This is good info to know.
- And Prospector too
What about other tutor targets like Tin Street Hooligan and Tuktuk Scrapper? They are more complicated since they are basically the same card (in different builds) so they will have fewer results, but it's nice to have an indicative win %.
Finishers: Krenko, Siege-Gang Commander
Like the 2 drops, Krenko needs to be interpreted in the context of SGC, since they compete for space with each other. And the results are that 2 SGC is better than a 1/1 split of SGC and Krenko. Good to know. I had been thinking this already, but it's nice to have data backing it up.
I played Rw Gobbos (Thalia SB) at a tourny, it was horrible. -_-
Finished with a score of 1-2-1...
Rnd 1: Stoneblade 2-1
Rnd 2: Elves! 0-2
Rnd 3: Affinity 0-2
Rnd 4: Miracles 1-1-1
The other decks were:
Elves! (beat me 2-0, finished 2nd)
ANT (finished 1st)
Stoneblade
Miracles
(Me) Rw Gobbos
Rg Gobbos
Junk
Affinity
Burn/Sligh
''The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword.'' Lord Eddard Stark - A Game of Thrones
-Adsum
-ChrisMeister on MTGO
This is tricky, because while Thalia is awful vs Elves and Affinity, once you beat those decks you play a different class of deck.
Channel Fireball's rationale for bringing Wolf Run to the Pro Tour AFTER Wolf Run won worlds (and thus was a known target in the metagame) was that they wanted to win the event, and the slate of decks that they expected to rise to the top of the swiss and make the top 8 were all very beatable by Wolf-run. So they picked the deck that had a harder time in the swiss, to have a better time in the top8.
Are you bringing a deck that will let you top8, or are you bringing a deck that will let you win the top8? Where I play, the decks I want to beat in the top8 are Storm, Stoneforge and BGx.
I love Rw Gobbos, but I wasn't paired against the easiest matchups I could face, lol.
And I know I can Top8 with it, it's an amazing deck.
''The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword.'' Lord Eddard Stark - A Game of Thrones
-Adsum
-ChrisMeister on MTGO
It would be tier 1 (DTB) if it could consistently beat top 8 decks.
Alright Goblins gets an 11th place in DC http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...p?DeckID=54157
Primary legacy deck High Tide primer
Overall you have to keep in mind that when something is termed "average perfromance" than this actually means "above average", since most lists that I included in the re records were winning lists/Top8 lists! i.e. If I wrote that "Running 22 or 23 lands does not improve the performance" than I actually phrased that wrong. it must be "running 22 or 23 lands contributes to the above-average performance, but does not catapult the decklist into being eve better than "above-average".
This line of thinking applies to some points you made (and I can see that this is my fault - not yours, since I didn't make this point clear in the original report of the analysis):
Again: Please be hesitant to draw such extreme conclusions yet. I'll be keeping this kind of work up and present a new, updated analysis once I have some more records to make statements about things like "the correct number of piledrivers" or the "correct number of MWMs".
Now for the things that I liked most about your posting (in fact: I enjoyed reading the whole thing, but I want to highlight some interesting thoughts):
This mono-colored vs. splash thing is indeed an issue. Also, I didn't control for which splash turned out to be most successful (I didn't diferentiate between Rw and Rg and Rwg and Ru and Rb - all of which were among the lists I recorded). Looking forward to get my hands on more data.
About the cc2-dudes: maybe it would be interesting to see how averaged manacost of the respective decklists affect performance. Or rather (to make things easier) I could look at the number of cc2 spells, since that is essentially what you want to know right?
I could provide info about the 0-Port subset, but I havn't got enough records yet. So, being an impatient person myself I must ask you to be a little more patient and wait for the next update.
Well, your example of spaghetti sauces made me hungry (*nomnom*) but I honestly don't get what you mean. Could you try to explain this one with different words (or use a different example)? You can also PM me on that, since I think this is not the kind of topic we should be discussing in the Goblins thread anyway.
MountainCaverns, Lackey, Go.
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchanges our apples, we each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange our ideas, we each have two ideas.
Finally! Can't say I'm a big fan of the sb at all, but that's a solid md and its good to see a list with a few new cards ( loyalist ). And while I didn't like the sb in total, I do like that he sided utility goblins like mwm and chieftain. I still don't dig on REB, thorn or 2 surgicals as your only gy/combo hate.
You're right, although I think that my overall conclusion regarding two drops was 'more information needed', which isn't wildly different from yours.
Actually, I think maybe it's the total number of slots devoted to 2CC creatures that matters. How about win pct for the # for the following?
a: Thalia+Piledriver+MWM+Instigator
b: Thalia+Piledriver+MWM+Instigator+Gempalm+Tarfire(+Bolt+Dismember+Swords)
So in some lists, the total number of (Thalia+Piledriver+MWM+Instigator) would be 9, and you could provide the aggregate win % for decks in that category.
For sure. Do you have a link to your dataset? Just to help with my impatience... :)
Heh. Actually, it does pertain to goblins. Imagine if you will that there are two 'ideal' goblin decks, one a Rw Thalia based list, and one a monoR list. These two goblins achieve amazing numbers, let's say 70% and all other permutations of the deck do significantly worse. These two lists are played with equal frequency. An 'aggregate' approach would basically halve the white splash, and put things in like one Thalia, fetchlands and no plateau etc etc. Basically the composite deck would be significantly worse than either 'ideal' deck.
So maybe the analysis needs to be open to the idea of there being multiple 'perfect' goblins decks. There is a best Ru deck, a best Rw deck, a best R deck etc.
Do you run sharpshooter in your 75? he works wonders against your first 3 opponents. I beat GWB Junk casting war marshall/stingscourger and not paying the echo, wiping out sfm, drs, and bobs. I did take him out MD for awhile, but I see elves growing in popularity, at least in my meta.
Yeah, I do. I love Sharpshooter, the deck just didn't want to work for me this week. :(
''The man who passes the sentence should swing the sword.'' Lord Eddard Stark - A Game of Thrones
-Adsum
-ChrisMeister on MTGO
I'll admit I had some pretty nutty draws, like lackey/vial on almost every turn one. All my ringleaders nabbed at least 2 more gobs. In a deck that doesn't run bs/ponder/top/cantrips we can get some pretty bad draws.
I have been facing my friend for quite a while who has a Legacy Soldier deck, so I have been thinking of using my SB against him but I don't know if you guys have this problem but, I just don't know what to switch in and out. If it is possible, can there be several examples where people show what they switch from their SB to their MD; for example, Storm, Combo, Delver, Zoo, Elf, etc. because I have a really hard time in knowing which cards to put against ANY opponent. I always believe my cards work awesome the way they are and if I remove one or two cards, I feel like my Goblins are going to go astray and lose the game.
If you guys can do this, it will be awesome!
If you show us your decklist and your sideboard, and say against which precise matchups you want help with, it would be easier.
in my list, for instance, against a Soldier deck, I'd bring in 1 Sharpshooter, 1 Tuktuk Scrapper and 2 Pyrokinesis for 3 Instigator and 1 Piledriver (on the draw) or 1 Kiki Jiki, 2 Piledriver, 1 Chieftain (on the play).
Super Bizarros Team. Beating everything with small green dudes and big waves.
Geeksire, it's usually pretty obvious when cards are bad.
Aether Vial - when the opponent is all in faster than you (Belcher, Storm, Dredge)
Goblin Lackey - when the opponent has lots of early blockers AND lots of removal (Zoo)
Goblin Piledriver - Same as lackey (but you cut PD first obv)
Mogg War Marshall - When the opponent is basically creature free
Thalia - When the opponent is mostly creatures
Goblin Warchief - Never cut
Goblin Chieftain - Never cut
Goblin Matron - A couple get shaved vs non-interactive combo decks
Gobling Ringleader - A couple get shaved vs non-interactive combo decks
Krenko - combo decks...
SGC - combo decks...
Tarfire/Bolt/Dismember/Swords - same as MWM
Prospector - vs control decks
Stingscourger - when the opponent doesn't have a big fatty wincon
Sharpshooter - when the opponent doesn't have lots of little dudes
TSH - when the opponent doesn't have the big artifact target
Thanks! This helps a lot in seeing what I need to sideboard since my friend gets his soldiers extremely fast and other decks like my other friends Elf deck.
I would think that in that matchup it's as easy as something like this:
- Stingscourger
- 2 Piledrivers
+ 3 Pyrokinesis
I have to disagree with these ones:
Warchief / Chieftain: Just because you said 'never', and that's not truth. There are lists that run a 3-3 or a 4-3 split, that trimming down a number of one of them is not the end of the world.
Matron: Take out all Ringleaders before doing this.
SGC: I want MORE SGC against combo. I want to kill them T3, and SGC allow me to do that by himself + Piledriver + Lackey. I'd rather not throw those T3 kill percentages away.
Shooter: He is way more versatile than that. Ensaring Bridge, Moat, Elephant Grass, Glacial Chasm... they all exist, and Shooter is a great way to play against those cards.
And to some extent: 'Aether Vial - when the opponent is all in faster than you (Belcher, Storm, Dredge)'
I agree against Belcher, and I trim them against Dredge, but again, depends on your deckist. If you are playing against TES or AnT, and you run 4 Wastes + 2-4 Ports, then Vial is quite good, since you can deprive them mana, while developing your board.
Super Bizarros Team. Beating everything with small green dudes and big waves.
For sure. I run 4+1, so I wouldn't cut them. If you started with more than 5, it can easily be right to cut some.
Good to know. I juts found the 1/1 body really underwhelming vs them. I will try that.
Yeah, you're right.
Sure. Against prison lists he's also good as a source of reach.
I don't run ports in my list.
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