Maybe something to deal with Plagues would...[/QUOTE]
Boartusk Liege, in an Instigator build with Chieftains. I often play through an e.plague and sometimes 2 with my Boartusk out of the SB.
Have you tried Dismember? The only way to consistently get a Winstigator thru' a blocker is to be able to remove a Tarmogoyf, I use to play Snuff Out in R/b Goblins for that very reason but considering you're playing Mono Red I don't see any other choice short of Man O' War Goblins.
To fit in 3 chieftain I cut:
-1 skirk prospector
- the 4th gempalm incinerator
- 1 sharpshooter
I am currently playing 7 2cc + 1 stingscourger
Besides making stupid combo with krenko, I think that chieftain makes the deck more consistent. When is it that a +1/+1 pump is not relevant? Combo/aggro/control it doesn t matter because haste/pump is always relevant. I am not saying that prospector/4th gempalm/sharpshooter are bad cards but there are several MUs where they are underwhelming while chieftain is always welcome, especially against combo. It turns MWM into a powerhouse and makes all goblin topdecks a bit better. Not to speak about how it messes up with combat math when you have a vial @4.
Another good reason for playing it is the printing of deathrite shaman, for 2 reasons:
-deathrite shaman means that it is a good idea to play black again, which means more E.plague. Chieftain virtually counteracts E.plague.
-chieftain makes any goblin kill shaman
the RR casting cost of chieftain is not that problematic. That s because you can afford to play it turn 4/5/6 and cast your other goblins meanwhile, it is not like Warren instigator that either you cast it immediatelly or is a dead card. Warchief is better the seener you play it but chieftain can stay in your hand a little bit it is not a big deal. And it is not like gempalm because R can come from a cavern of souls.
@Bichon_Blitz: I agree that Wear/Tear might be a better adittion than K.Grip. Costing just W to destroy a Plague is awesome, and they do side out counters.. Maybe my next list will be RW, just for it and RiP. 2 Lieges might do the trrick too as orcanmail suggested, and I've played them before, and they're quite good.
@Sockosensei
3 Wasteland
3 Rishadan Port
4 Cavern of Souls
10 Mountain
2 Chrome Mox
4 Aether Vial
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader
3 Goblin Warchief
3 Goblin Chieftain
3 Goblin Piledriver
3 Warren Instigator
2 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Kiki Jiki, Mirrorbreaker
2 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Stingscourger
1 Tarfire
3 Lightning Bolt
Side:
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Blood Moon
2 Kinesis
2 Thorn
2 CotV
1 Shooter
1 Scrapper
I can't really tell if Bolt is strictly better than Tarfire, but right now I like it more. Feel free to disagree, play neither, or play Dismember, as also suggested.
Super Bizarros Team. Beating everything with small green dudes and big waves.
Bolt and Dismember are both pretty good options. I'm liking pryrokinesis also. It allows you to connect with a Lackey t2 on the Draw through multiple blockers. I also like that its solid against aggro decks in the format which will always make up the largest percentage of the field. And being free to cast allows you to employ your ports and wastes while also controlling the board. And it's decent against Goyf. I see Kinesis as an early game player that bridges the gap until Gempalm takes over the late game.
Super Bizarros Team. Beating everything with small green dudes and big waves.
Fimo, thanks for the reply. I think that your post is very well thought out, and you make good points.
So, assuming 3 Incinerators plus those 8, you have 11 two drops. Have you read this? What did you think of the discussion about two-drops?
It's not that goblin chieftain is a bad card. It's not. It's that there is an opportunity cost to including them. I personally think that goblins that act as removal spells are really awesome, which is why I am hot on Sharpshooter, Incinerators, and SGC as well.
Actually, vs combo I think that Chieftain is far too slow, and vs aggro I'd rather have more removal..... (as you can see, there's a bunch of people that love goblins that run Tarfire, Lightning Bolt and Dismember as additional removal...)
Yes, I agree that Deathrite Shaman and Engineered Plague are both good reasons for it.
Fair enough. I find that there is a constant tension where I'm trying to wring as much from my manabase in terms of Wasteland/Port/Karakas as I can, which means I want to be right on the edge of 'enough' red sources. I personally only run 15 red sources, which feels like not quite enough for my Warchiefs and SGCs on occasion.
Let me start with saying that the 2 most problematic/fascinating decisions to make when designing a goblin list in my opinion are:
-what to do on turn 2
-how many removal should I run
these are the major point of controversy among goblins players. They are the most meta/playerstyle dependent part of the deck and I don t think there can be only 1 better way. I completly understand why you feel like having many removals I play many removals myself from time to time. Lately I just prefer to play more threats than removals because I feel it is more consistent but that might just be a matter of playstyle. I don t think there is a right or wrong here.
GoboLord did a great job with that post. However, on the 2cc part he says: "No, there is no linear relation between the number of cmc2 spells and performance". Actually if I can give you an advice GoboLord I would consider the numbers a bit differently, maybe we get some correlations. You consider the 2cc spells to be: "a sum of: Piledriver, WInstigator, MWM, Gempalm Incinerator, Stingscourger, Tin Street Hooligan" and my guess is that you put thalia into this list right?
Instead of considering the 2cc as you defined them it might be more meaningful to split this analysis to one of these (or both):
- actual 2 drops (Piledriver, WInstigator, MWM, thalia)
- actual 2 drops + ALL removals that can be cast as early as turn 2 + manadenial/manaacelerants (Piledriver, WInstigator, MWM, Gempalm Incinerator, Stingscourger, Tin Street Hooligan, thalia, rishadan port, wasteland, tarfire, lightning bolt, dismember, chrome mox, skirk prospector). I would not count lackey and vial because it is the same in every list. As Goblins have high mana curve this number is much lower than other archetypes. However, we all know how important it is turn 2 in legacy so this number would reflect your potential to interact with the game by this turn. It would be very interesting for me to know whether it is the number of things that can be done by turn 2 that matters or which one they are.
I agree.
No, his point is that there's a correlation with winning, but it's not LINEAR.
The 'Winstigator' lists are optimised with a high win rate around 10 two drops. The conventional lists are optimised for winning at around 13-14 two drops. The 11-12 two drop decks perform significantly worse, for whatever reason. Your list is conventional (in that it doesn't run Warren Instigator and Chrome Mox), yet it runs 11 two drops. I'm suggesting that two of those Goblin Chieftains might seem like they are 'free' to include, but they really aren't.
Yep.
This is good, although I wouldn't count Prospector unless you're including it solely as a 'things that can be done on the 2nd turn' kind of thing.
The trouble is, the more discrete categories you break things down into, the smaller each individual sample size gets, until you end up with only Max Tietze's list.
Well, I would also include TSH in the 'actual two drops' list since I am fine with just curving out with him. But can he be counted as 'removal' as well? It gets tricky.
Let's set aside the Winstigator build for the moment, and combine the two good 'conventional' lists together (thalia or not).
Gobolord listed an example Thalia build as
8 'actual' two drops (3 Thalia, 2 PD, 3 MWM) and
6 'removals' (4 Gempalm, 1 Sting, 1 TSH). Plus
6 'stuff' (4 Waste, 1 Prospector, 1 Karakas). For a total of
20 things that are in addition to the mandatory 8 Vials/Lackeys.
His example 'classic' build has
7 'actual' two drops (4 PD, 3 MWM) and
6 'removals' (4 Gempalm, 1 Sting, 1 TSH). Plus
8 'stuff' (4 Waste, 1 Prospector, 3 Port). For a total of
22 things that are in addition to the mandatory 8 Vials/Lackeys.
His 'awful' list was too all over the place (since they were), with about the only point to be made that every single Chieftain you include will require you to cut something else that will be easier to cast and have more impact on winning.
P.s. Here's his original comments on Chieftain (with 64% being the avg win pct of lists analysed, so >64% is good, and <64% is bad):
Given the importance of early game interaction, how do you feel about cutting 2 things to do on turn 2 for 2 Chieftains?
-Prospector, Sharpshooter, Gempalm
+3 Chieftain
I don't know if I'd say Chieftain is "good against combo" being 3cc... but it's certainly better against combo than those cards (because they're almost dead cards). So in that sense it speeds up your combo goldfish by having more business and less chaff game 1.
But if your meta is all combo you shouldn't be playing Goblins anyway. What about your non-combo matchups? In all of those, Chieftain costs more and potentially slows down your deck and removes interactivity. Are you adding Chieftain because you think it optimizes that specific build, or because you think Chieftain in general will help matchups? If you just want Chieftain, might it be better to cut other expensive less-interactive slots like Krenkos or Warchiefs? GoboLord's analysis suggests conventional builds that tried to cram in more expensive slots (e.g. more Chieftains) tended to perform worse. This meshes with my experience, with most losses from having too many expensive cards stuck in hand in suboptimal builds.
Or if you think Chieftain would help, what about switching to the WInstigator build? Chrome Mox and WInstigator make it easier to support more 3-4 drops.
Ok I see what you mean, good point. However, I think that to get to that conclusion we should be a bit more careful: we remove lists that run WI from this analysis. At this point we don t have the 10 2drop bias of WI lists. We check this new sample for a correlation between the number of two drops and the win%. At this point we may be able to see a linear reletionship between the number of two drops and win%. If this is the case then it is very informative. However as I mentioned in the previous post I would consider the two drops a bit differently.
Looking at the win percentages that GoboLord posted, it seems that the thalia build has a win% of 69.95% whereas the classic build is at 67.21%. There are 4 differences:
- thalia +/-
- 2 vr 4 PD
- 8 two drop vr 7 two drops
- 20 thigs to do by turn 2 vr 22 things to do by turn 2
The first 3 points are very much related. I put in 3 thalia removing 2 PD and thereby increasing the actually 2 drops from 7 to 8. Where does the benefit come from doing this? is it the unique effect of thalia? is the removing of PD? is having an extra actual 2 drop? Amixture of the three?
I am very surprised that the list with 20 thigs to do by turn 2 performs better that 22 things to do by turn 2. I would have guessed the opposite. Mmm.... .After reasoning more on it maybe it makes sense. I mean we want to curve out right? so it might be that if you fill your deck with too many "things to do by turn 2" you end up casting 2 drops also on turn 3 and 4 which is suboptimal. It is a complicate matter.
I feel like if you play 7-8 drops and a number of rishadan port + some removal you rarely waste your second turn. As I said before I feel that Prospector, Sharpshooter, 4th Gempalm are rather situational. I want to minimize dead cards in my hand G1 and then sideboard specific cards G2 and G3. I want to see prospector against equipments, in other cases I prefer to see whatever else goblin. I want to see sharpsooter against elves/maverick/D&T and lingering souls otherwise I prefer to see something else. I want to see gempalm in my opening hand ONLY if I have a lackey AND a mountain otherwise I prefer to see something else, hence the 3-of. Therefore, I dont think that these cards are necessary MD unless specific meta. However I am always happy to draw a chieftain because it is always relevant and good in multiples.Given the importance of early game interaction, how do you feel about cutting 2 things to do on turn 2 for 2 Chieftains?
-Prospector, Sharpshooter, Gempalm
+3 Chieftain
My meta is not all combo otherwise I wouldn t be all this hyped for krenko. Against aggro: +1/+1 is super relevant, against control: haste is amazing because you don t give them time to stabilize. Seriously it is not that a removal is always the best thing you can have against aggro: being aggressive yourself pays off. having access to 3 +1/+1 effects and 7 haste + 2 krenko really changes the way that aggro MUs play out. You force them to interact with you. You are the combo player here, haste+krenko is a real combo, either they interact with you or they are dead. Chieftan will be best is a build with many MWM and krenko sure. However, as long as you play gobins it fits in any lists. I just don t see good enough reasons why I shouldn t play MWM and krenko so yes it fits probably better in my build. I think it is a mistake to cut warchief in favor of chieftain. They fill different roles. I think that chieftain competes with the other flex slots: conistency vr flexibility. Too many times I drew a prospector vr miracles or a sharpshooter vr reanimator or too many Gempals in my opening that at least for G1 I prefer to have a consistent cards. I do play one singleton artifact hate in the MD, I havent decided yet whether it is a good choice.But if your meta is all combo you shouldn't be playing Goblins anyway. What about your non-combo matchups? In all of those, Chieftain costs more and potentially slows down your deck and removes interactivity. Are you adding Chieftain because you think it optimizes that specific build, or because you think Chieftain in general will help matchups? If you just want Chieftain, might it be better to cut other expensive less-interactive slots like Krenkos or Warchiefs? GoboLord's analysis suggests conventional builds that tried to cram in more expensive slots (e.g. more Chieftains) tended to perform worse. This meshes with my experience, with most losses from having too many expensive cards stuck in hand in suboptimal builds.
Or if you think Chieftain would help, what about switching to the WInstigator build? Chrome Mox and WInstigator make it easier to support more 3-4 drops.
On WI it is not my thing, it is a powerful card but it doesn t match with my playstyle.
I have just finished reading this VERY interesting discussion between magicmerl and fimo.
The point of this comment is not to agree or disagree with either one of you - in fact you both make very good points and explain your arguments well.
I just wanted to point out that I'm glad that you actually take my "reasearch" results seriously and that this kind of discussion is one of the reasons why I will keep up this work. Overall I'm very impressed by the friendly atmosphere and the high-level standard of the discussions in this threat. Keep this up guys!
The next part of my analysis will be coming soon (I think some time next week) and I will definitely do some exploration on the "things to do on Turn 2" stuff, that fimo suggested (although I agree with magicmerl that results might give a too simplistic picture of successful goblin decklists).
MountainCaverns, Lackey, Go.
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchanges our apples, we each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange our ideas, we each have two ideas.
These are questions that we don't know the answers to. I am inclined to think that it *doesn't* actually matter whether you are running Thalia vs Piledriver vs MWM, except insofar as MWM is better vs midrange decks and Thalia/PD are better vs combo, so MWM probably deserves a slot. But since PD and Thalia are both good vs combo, maybe it doesn't really matter which if we have to choose one.
The thing is, not every play is equal. I see three categories of cards:
Proactive cards: casting creatures to actively develop your own board and goldfish. Like the bevy of 2 drops
Tempo cards: Using Wasteland and Port are tempo plays that keep the board state the same. These cards are only really good if you already have a Proactive board advantage, since on a neutral board they are usually a net loss for us (given how we run more 3-4CC cards than the average legacy deck)
Reactive cards: Casting Tarfire/Lightning Bolt/Gempalm actively hinders your opponents board (IF they have a relevant target in play).
So having a proactive board development play on T2 seems like the most consistent way to get ahead of the opponent. I think that making sure you ahve enough proactive plays is more important than making sure you have enough total plays.
YES! That's what I was mumbling about above. We want to proactively develop our board.
I think that it's more that we really want to be proactive. About the only time I want to use Port on T2 is when I resolved a T1 Lackey, so I'm continuing to develop my board presence by casting 'free' goblins.
Using port when you have an empty board isn't a waste. Actually, it kinda is. You wasted your turn, they lost a mana. MAYBE that makes them lose their turn. But maybe not. We are effectively timewalking the opponent into the late game, and we only really want to do that with aggro decks that don't really have a late game. Like..... Elves?
You're right, they are. Along with the 23rd land, TSH, inclusion of Chieftains, 2 drop composition and Krenko vs SGC as the 2nd fatty.
Fair enough. So you don't run Stingscourger MD either then?
I personally don't have enough room in my SB to run all of the cards I want (these are the cards I want to include in my SB)
4 Rest in Peace
4 Chalice of the Storm
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Pyrokinesis
2 Krosan Grip
1 Tin Street Hooligan
1 Boartusk Liege
1 Angel of Despair
My only problem is, that's 19 cards total....
Do you SB Prospector?
Look, I have to say, I share your feelings on the Prospector. It looks like SUCH an underwhelming card. But from playtesting it, it overperforms for me every time.
Isn't that a significant enough part of the metagame that it's worth running MD? How many decks do you want to see Stingscourger against?
Confession time: I love drawing cards. I love casting Terror as a cantrip (Gempalm). I love casting Demonic Tutor and getting a 1/1 for free (matron). I love Brainstorming with Jace and getting a 2/2 haste for free (Ringleader).
Sure. And back when I was running Krenko, I definitely was running chieftains as well. In testing the number of chieftains slowly fell until I cut the last one altogether.
When they came for the redundant chieftains, I said nothing. Then they came for the last chieftain, and I said nothing. Now they come for Krenko, and there is nobody left to speak up for krenko....
Last edited by magicmerl; 07-03-2013 at 08:02 PM.
It can well be that. It would be awsome if we could get an answer for this question from the data that GoboLord is gonna bring up next.
I guess we have different views on how situational chieftain is, but it is fair enough if you think that.
You're right, they are. Along with the 23rd land, TSH, inclusion of Chieftains, 2 drop composition and Krenko vs SGC as the 2nd fatty.
Lingering souls seems gone with the shifting from esper stoneblade to deathblade. Or maybe it is just my meta but I don t see many lingering souls after the printing of deathrite shaman. Maverick is played much less now than it was 6 months ago which means less tiny creatures around. Elves are a bit on the rise but they are not a huge part of the metagame anyway. It just doesn t seem necessary to me running sharpshooter MD.Isn't that a significant enough part of the metagame that it's worth running MD?
Stingscourger has a much wider application than cards like sharpshooter or prospector. Stingscurger has application against combo decks (show&tell, dredge) as well as control decks and any aggro deck. There are so few situations where it is a bad card. Against aggro it often fills the same role as MWM, bounce + blocker buys you 3 attacks. sometimes it bounces a germ token allowing you to swing for the win. Sometimes it is a chain lightning for 2 mana if you have a chieftain down. Sometimes it ruins the day of an insectile abberration. Sometimes it just wins you the game against combo. It is extremely flexible but always useful. It is useless against storm and enchantress...which is what 10% of the field maybe? hence a very well deserved 1-of. I wouldn t be surprised to see the 2-of in some builds.Fair enough. So you don't run Stingscourger MD either then?
.....
How many decks do you want to see Stingscourger against?
No I don t run prospector in the SB. Disenchant effects and pithing needle deal with the problematic equipments and have wider applications. I prefer the 23th land (rishadan port) over prospector.Do you SB Prospector?
Look, I have to say, I share your feelings on the Prospector. It looks like SUCH an underwhelming card. But from playtesting it, it overperforms for me every time.
Sharpshooter is good vs any deck with little dorky dudes. Where I play I see Death and Taxes, Goblins, Merfolk and Elves. Maybe it's a Sb card, maybe it's a MD card. In my meta I'm happy with it MD. Do you run it SB?
Edit: I agree on keeping the tutor list small to make the deck consistent. My tutor package is currently Prospector, Stingscourger and Sharpshooter. Other than that, the only things I run that aren't 4-ofs are the interchangeable 2-drops (PD/MWM/Thalia). Consistency is part of why I don't run 3 Gempalms.
I agree with Stingscourger as an inclusion in the deck. To my mind it's the 'first among equals' of the tutor targets. I was just throwing it out there because your arguement against prospector and sharpshooter could have been applied equally to Stingscourger as well ("I want to minimize dead cards in my hand G1 and then sideboard specific cards G2 and G3.").
Yeah, and I think this comes down to different preferences, playstyles and metagame. p.s. What is your current list?
magicmerl and I were going on a bit in the mtgsalvation forum about whether there will be a spoiled Goblin with UW hate. So far they've spoiled 3 3-drops and 1 2-drop (mostly) tribal creatures with enemy-color hate built-in. I'm pretty sure they're just going to give us a mediocre 3-drop. So far the white Human Knight sucks, the blue Merfolk Wizard is possibly sideboardable, the black Zombie Warrior is pretty unexciting, and green got a Wolf instead of an Elf...
So a RR Goblin is a real possibility but not a certainty.
So they've spoiled a "can't be targeted by spells/abilities of colors x & y", "keep a creature of color x or y tapped", "if color x or y spell is cast in your turn +1/+1 counter", and "exile a creature card from hand of color x or y"...
Any thoughts on what element of flavor the Red one might get? I was thinking of what would be on the wishlist as far as comes into play abilities.
I think I would like to see a 2/1 or 2/2 with "When ~ enters the battlefield deal damage equal to it's power to each Blue and White creature." Blast SFM, SCM, Geist, and White Weenie stuff.
TPDMC
Well so far we have 2 comes-into-play abilities, 1 whenever-your-opponent-does-this ability, and 1 quasi-protection ability. So the door is wide open. But the ability you listed seems unlikely. Asymmetric board sweepers are few and far between in this game.
I'm just hoping they save the best for last.
Although we're not even sure its a Goblin (Green got a Wolf, for fuck's sake).
But it will definitely hate on UW, and if it costs 3 it will have 2+ abilities. If it costs 2 it will probably only have 1 ability. So no Piledriver reprint. :(
All the other abilities are flavor-specific to their color though, so that should narrow it down. White got first strike and lifelink, so those are out, as are hexproof (G) and intimidate (B). What's left for red that's on-color? Red often has Haste, double strike, fire-breathing, none of which are especially valuable in eternal formats. And the enemy-color hate is also pretty color specific. White has quasi-protection. Blue taps. Green gets counters. Black discards, sorta. So burn is a possibility. Land and Artifact destruction are out, since they aren't color-specific.
Interesting discussion guys.
For me the most pertinent question is "how situational is Chieftain?". I find it very situational, but this depends on the build. Chieftain was MVP in my mono-red list with Instigators and 2 Stingscourger and Krenko. The question I am curious about is "is Chieftain that good in the Thalia builds?"
If you read between the lines of Gobolord's analysis of 2-drops and the archetypes, Chieftain worked very well in the WInstigator lists (10 2 drops). But the successful non-Instigator lists (Thalia and traditional) both ran basically no chieftains and more 2 drops (13 or 14). The Thalia and traditional lists that tried to include Chieftains fell into the 11 and 12 2-drop category, and those lists all underperformed. So, to me, it looks like the data suggests Chieftain underperforms in those lists.
I would be interested to see an analysis of the number of chieftains by deck type (WInstigator, Thalia, traditional, and tomato sauce). Doing an analysis just on number of chieftains wouldn't show a trend since the WInstigator lists do very well with several chieftains and the Thalia lists do very well without chieftains, but I'm more curious how each of the types fares if the number of chieftains changes. Could such an analysis be done? My intuition is that the Thalia lists are better without Chieftains and with more "2 drops". My intuition is that the WInstigator lists are more able to support them since they have more proactive ways to accelerate out the increased number of 3-4 drops (Instigator + Mox) and are also more able to abuse them to get value out (since WInstigator + Chieftain interaction is quite nice). But that's just a guess. I'm curious what the data says.
I don't know if there is enough data available for this, but I'd also be curious to see an analysis of how Chieftain performs stratified by matchup type (aggro, combo, control, tempo..) to see if the lists with Chieftain perform better only against certain deck types or in general.
Last edited by FTW; 07-05-2013 at 11:04 AM.
I am playing:
4 Goblin Lackey
4 vial
4 thalia
3 Mogg War Marshal
1 Stingscourger
3 Gempalm Incinerator
4 Goblin Matron
3 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Ringleader
2 krenko
1 tuktuk scrapper
Lands
4 Wasteland
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Rishadan Port
3 Mountain
1 karakas
2 plateau
5 red fetches
//Sideboard
4 Chalice of the Void
2 angel of despair
1 Stingscourger
1 grafdigger s cage
1 relic of progenitus
2 rest in peace
1 Pithing Needle
1 pyrokinesis
2 wear//tear
I am back and forth on the thalia/MWM split but for now I am happy on this. I decided of thalia over piledriver because I sided him out nearly every game and I think she is better in so many ways, she is useless only aginst tribal which is just a very tiny portion of my metagame. What I like about her is that even though I side her out in G2 to give space to more specific hate that doesn t mean that she was useless G1 she always impact the game in a way or another. I am very happy of these 2 drops because they maximize my 2 lines of play:
- thalia along 4 waste and 4 port maximize mana denial
- MWM gives 2 goblin on the battlefield to maximize the effect of chieftain, krenko and gempalm.
Running thalia is another reason why I run only 3 gempalms. I aim at casting gempalm on average from turn 4 on. I want to cast first my 1-2-3 drops. Then when me and the opponent have casted our hand I will gempalm his best guy. I dont like to cast gempalm before I casted my 3 drop and have established a solid board position (except enabling lackey to connect, sure). I prefer not to have a removal for a tarmogoyf rather than not having enough board presence.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)