My $0.02, based on the math: It takes an EXTREMELY long time for the thinning effects of fetches to become significant, and even then their usefulness is highly debatable. If you're running monoR, there's no reason to be running fetches unless you enjoy killing yourself, losing to Stifle, and undoing your Ringleaders' effects (which are least on par with cracking a couple fetches).
@Perm" originaly posted by Perm
You need 12+ to reach 6%. If you play fetches in monocolored you're bad lol, that's about all I can say
are you aware that stifle is the be st land destruction in the format?
Can you show me how did you come up with that number using 12 fetches?
Anyways, Ill copy paste gobolord's diagram example:
Let's assume we are in midgame (cause that's when we want to thin out our deck).
Let's assume we run 22 lands, 4 of which are already in play, no fetchland is used so far.
It's about turn 6. we went first and play 1 Matron and 1 Gempalm so far. Pretty average.
Thus our library contains 60 - 7 (opening hand) - 5 (drawphases) - 1 (Matron) - 1 (Gempalm) = 46 cards (18 lands, 28 non-lands)
The odds on drawing a non-land card are 28/46 = 60,86%
Let's now assume "ALL" of our 4 lands we had so far were fetched
Thus our library size is reduced by 4 , so is our landcount. It's 42 cards (14 lands, 28 nonlands)
The odds on drawing a non-land card are 28/42 = 66,67%
60.86%(without Fetches) minus 66.67%(cracking 4 fetches) = 5.81% rounded down to 6%
( wow a 6% thats good imagine this in a late game with more fetches cracking up those % would go up)
That if we all drew fethches in the opening hand but try to imagine this if ever we play control in some matches this would realy help us in the latter game in top drawing good cards 2% makes a difference what more is 6% or more in earlydrawing of fetches and during late games.
Life is not as important as card quality and card advantage, I will give you that. But it's not just about life. Stifle stills sees play (and plenty of it) and personally, the 4 life you're giving up to get that noticeable advantage (assuming Gobolord's math is correct) is making Zoo laugh at you, giving any storm based deck an additional 2 to their storm count, and screwing with your Ringleaders, who are far more important than the slight percentage it gives you. Ringleader clashes with fetches, he does not synergize with them, and that is something you need to accept. Once that has been accomplished, you need to ask, which is more important, fetches or Ringleader.
Absolutely! That's the point.
-------------------
Different topic: What do you think of Gaea's Cradle in Goblins?
* killer synergies with MWM and SGC
* mana ramp for Matron, Ringleader and SGC
My current list:
//Lands [22]
7 Waste/Port
7 Fetchlands
2 Taiga
5 Mountain
1 Gaea's Cradle
//Core [26]
...
//Others [12]
4 Gempalm Incinerator
3 L. Bolt
1 Stingscourger
3 MWM
1 Tin Street Hooligan
//Sideboard [15]
4 Chalice otV
2 Tormod's Crypt
1 Relic of Progenitus
3 Pyrokinesis
3 Nature's Claim
1 Vexing Shusher
Last edited by GoboLord; 02-13-2011 at 12:28 PM.
MountainCaverns, Lackey, Go.
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchanges our apples, we each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange our ideas, we each have two ideas.
Cradle is interesting at least, but i often find myself lacking enough red sources to spam the board, because the colorless cost is already reduced by warchief. Its useless in the first turns and later not useful enough.
Got tired of Legacy and you like drafts? Try my Paupercube What?
That's why I cutted the 8th manadenial.
It's not useless in the first few turns because that's when you usually have 1-3 creatures in play. After some testing I dodn't find it bad in lategame because it enables overwhelming, sudden cardadvantage with RL even without Vial in play. So far Cradle has been producing not less than 2 mana everytime I had it in play.
MountainCaverns, Lackey, Go.
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchanges our apples, we each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange our ideas, we each have two ideas.
Sure, there might be some uses from time to time but in the end the question is if those events happen more often than the use of another land.
As i said, on an advanced board i usually cant get much use of colorless sources. But thats just my impression.
Also i can remember many games where i started with 2 lands, vial and 3-drops and couldnt play them before vial hits 3 because i was lacking the 3rd land.
But i really like to discuss the advantages of rb over rg and monoR
I dont see any in the current meta.
Last edited by Humphrey; 02-13-2011 at 01:58 PM.
Got tired of Legacy and you like drafts? Try my Paupercube What?
And why is Cradle worse than any other land in this situation?
The current German meta is different from that in the US.
I feel the same way: I don't see any reason why Rb is superior to Mono R and Rg in our meta. After intense testing the only black card I found good was Earwig Squad (I think he deserves a slot in MD). I'm not willing to splash B just for that.
MountainCaverns, Lackey, Go.
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchanges our apples, we each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange our ideas, we each have two ideas.
Please read this article:
http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/print.asp?ID=3096
Believing in deck thinning at this point is like believing in astrology. There are several valid reasons to run fetchlands even in mono-colored decks, but deck-thinning is not one of them.
Comparing deck thinning to astrology is a joke. The article assumes you're drawing 1 card per turn. In decks with a draw engine (ie good decks) the thinning obviously shows up much quicker. For instance try playing combo elves with 14 forests vs fetches plus forests and tell me that "believing in deck thinning is like believing in astrology".
Are you actually trying to say that decks without draw engines are bad?
And this is a thread about goblins. there is no draw.
The only decks with a statistically significant draw engine as far as thinning is concerned is specific types of combo, usually just ones that involve glimpse of nature really.
I will make use of every tool that fate presents.
My superficial observations:
Sensation Gorger looks completely bonkers. It serves two purposes: Constantly refilling your hand, as if you keep four or more card in hand mid to late game in vial goblins, something is very wrong. It is also nice to screw with control decks and other decks that keep large/specific/tutored hands. It's even optional if you don't want to. Could compete with Ringleader, maybe going half and half.
Goblin King: How is it bad as a 1-of in sideboard is so bad. If it play you absolutely steamroll a red deck.
I will make use of every tool that fate presents.
I decided to mix the two splashes yesterday and came up with a list that looks like this:
Lands - 22
5x Mountain
4x Wasteland
3x Rishadin Port
3x Bloodstained Mire
2x Wooded Foothills
2x Taiga
2x Badlands
1x Arid Mesa
Creatures - 32
4x Goblin Lackey
4x Goblin Warchief
4x Goblin Ringleader
4x Goblin Piledriver
4x Goblin Matron
3x Mogg War Marshal
3x Gempalm Incinerator
2x Siege-Gang Commander
1x Goblin Chieftan
1x Skirk Prospector
1x Goblin Sharpshooter
1x Tin-Street Hooligan
Artifacts - 4
4x Aether Vial
Sorcery - 2
2x Warren Wierding
Sideboard:
4x Leyline of the Void
4x Cabal Therapy
3x Krosan Grip
3x Pyrokinesis
1x Vexing Shusher
I was thinking of cutting a Gempalm Incinerator so I could put Stingscourger back in, but I'm not sure if that's the right move.
Well, the question which removal is best has to do with metagame of course.
But I feel that Lightning Bolt(s), the 4th Gempalm and Stingscourger are way better option to deal with anything that WW can deal with.
This is how I weigh it's PROs and CONs
PRO: WW is a Goblin
CON: Stingscourger is a Goblin
PRO: It doesn't target (it's an editct)
CON: It doesn't target (oftentimes opponents sacrifice creatures that could be dealt with by either Bolt, Gempalm or Stinger too)
CON: it needs B splash
CON: it is a Tribal Sorcery (which Goyfs out of Gempalm's range very often, this in turn requires you play MWMs in Goyf-heavy metagames)
CON: it can only be played with Instant-Speed (even Stinger can be Vialed in!)
CON: it can't deal dmg to your oppnent's life (STnger, Gempalm and Bolt can!)
The best arguments (with respect to the meta) to run WW are Progenitus, Argothian Enchantress and Nimble Mongoose - we have no other removal availabe for them.
MountainCaverns, Lackey, Go.
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchanges our apples, we each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange our ideas, we each have two ideas.
As a 1-of it probably doesn't make a huge difference one way or another.
But it's a card that thrives when you have guys on the board, and produces off color mana. It has poor synergies with Goblin Warchief and Aether Vial. IE: both of those cards help alleviate the high mana costs of your guys and make a surplus of colorless mana less useful. It strikes me as win more - when you're curving out and your opponent isn't answering your guys on board, then it will power you into more stuff. Where the mana disruption from Rishadan Port or Wasteland can help you disrupt your opponent to get important spells to resolve or important spells of your opponent's not to resolve. Just seems like the mana disruption has the ability to dig you out of some unfavorable positions (answering Tabernacle or Maze of Ith; keeping control off 3-4 mana), where Gaea's Cradle isn't going to help. While rare, it seems like it has the potential to make some hands that would be workable unkeepable. IE: Mountain, Lackey, Port/Waste/Cradle, Driver/MWM, 3 other spells - where if Lackey gets answered you're stuck on mana and with Port/Waste you'd still have options open.
Again, overall it probably makes little difference, but I'd err on the side of running the 4th Rishadan Port or Wasteland over it.
Manabase looks really solid. I used to run the same manabase when I ran Rbg. However, I switched away from it when I realized a lot of non-basic hate was being played against me. There was also a regular 43Lands player at my weekly tourney and his deck just preyed on decks that ran all their sorces of one color as non-basics. Having a color locked out by mana denial (Wastelands) left me with dead cards in hand. I decided that if a color was worth playing then at least 1 basic land for that color should be played. I couldn't see myself running a basic forest EVER (since I ran no MD green cards), but I could run a swamp. So I switched to a Rb build and haven't looked back since. There actually aren't that many times that you really need K-Grip anyway, i've found. Having a Swamp to guarantee playing a perish or Weirding has been much more effective.
2 Weirdings looks good.
Prospector and Sharpshooter I could do without. Prospector as a 1-of just doesn't seem worth it to me. Sure, he lets you do cool and sneaky things, but I don't think he's overly necessary. Same with Sharpshooter. Occassionally he's a game winner, but often he just sits around. I would replace these guys with a 4th Gempalm and that Stingscourger you wanted.
Sideboard-
Leyline is fine if you insist on playing scared (yeah, I said it). I think you can get away with running 3 Crypts instead, but it's your call.
Therapy is also fine. You can play it against anything but I prefer Chalice against combo.
KGrip I don't think you really need. What do you play it against that you can't find a red card for? Moat, Engineered Plague..... ?
Pyrokinesis is great. You should add a 4th or a Perish too.
Shusher has been surprisingly good to me in the past, especially when I've played Chalice.
Overall, pretty good 75.
happy hunting
http://www.quietspeculation.com/2011...e-at-scg-indy/
http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...p?DeckID=36630
MUD is now in Legacy! This is a cool deck that put up good results (2nd at SCG Indy) and I wouldn't be surprised if this and more controlling variants became commonplace. Has anyone had a chance to playtest against it? I built the deck on tappedout.net and it plays quickly and consistently. It seems that our best bet against it would be Pyrokinesis because the deck's explosiveness is based around Metalworker activations T2, so burning it out at instant speed puts them on a slower path and exposes them to their own painlands. But it's not as easy as just burning a Metalworker. You also need to keep Welder from recurring their shit, and Wurmcoil Engine is just a world of beating for us. They can hardcast that shit T3 with no accelerators. And it replaces itself! And it has Lifelink! Eek! I do not want that card to find a home in legacy.
Now my question is, will this deck require us to start playing artifact sweepers like Pulverize? I think this is a strong deck with many possible variations and I think it will find a niche in the format. And hate against it will also be good against Affinity, which is perpetually almost becoming playable.
Thoughts?
Well, I guess it's a matter of personal taste and metagame, but I wanted to quibble about this point specifically, because I won a game last week by turning my 2x Warren Wierding into three goblin tokens by saccing a MWM token to it. It was great. The look on his face when I told them the tokens had haste was just . . .
There are other things that I think we disagree on as well. I love MWM, for example. If Matron is demonic tutor and ringleader is fact or fiction, MWM is moment's peace, except better because he can attack and you don't have to pay for the flash back. I also feel that, unless Dreadstill starts making a resurgence, stingscourger is a little weak. Not terrible, you understand, but a little weaker than killing something (anything, most of the time) dead. First turn lackey second turn stingscourger on their blocker made me sad inside, and I was glad to cut them for the weirdings.
My thoughts are that I wish Manic Vandal had been a Goblin. Seriously. We should not have to pay four to kill an artifact with a goblin, nor have summoning sickness.
Rishadan Port is like scuba gear.
--FoulQ
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