A 5-3 Lodestone Golem’s story at SCG FW
If you guys don't care for innovative decks or a 5-3 (27th) finish at SCG event, please feel free to trollz! Otherwise, this is my boring report on Steel Stompy
Hey guys, this is the 2nd SCG Legacy event that I participated. Being primarily a Landstill player, I was tempted to bring UWb Landstill to the event. However, knowing my bad history of initial matches with Landstill (I get paired against Belcher Match 1 ALL THE TIME, read the first match report lol!), I decided that I would like to give Steel Stompy, a deck that I had been developing for over 2-3 months, a shot at the tournament.
Before the report, I would like to present the decklist, and brief notes on what matchups Steel Stompy is strong/weak in.
4 Seat of the Synod
1 Darksteel Citadel
4 Ancient Tomb
4 City of Traitors
4 Inkmoth Nexus
2 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Steel Overseer
4 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Etched Champion
4 Master of Etherium
4 Lodestone Golem
3 Mox Diamond
3 Mox Opal
2 Cranial Plating
2 Umezawa’s Jitte
2 Sword of Fire and Ice
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Crucible of Worlds
3 Cursed Totem
3 Ratchet Bomb
3 Tangle Wire
2 Winter Orb
4 Thorn of Amethyst
BRIEF NOTES ON DECK:
Steel Stompy is an aggro Chalice deck that is focused primarily on winning by beaters while playing disruptions. Unlike traditional Stompy, Steel Stompy is not revolved around resolving game-winning lockpieces and win under them, instead, Steel Stompy plays more like Merfolks than anything else: It wants to keep applying pressure, and pump up a force of multiple creatures, maximizing board position with minimal mana spent, while at the same time disrupting an opponent’s tempo and board development with Wastelands, Revokers, Chalice, Lodestone Golem. In that respect, the style of playing is much different than regular Stompy, and instead is tied more similarly to how Merfolk plays.
The good matchups of Steel Stompy include:
- Goblins (if Lackey is out of the picture)
- Classic Zoo and Bant (without GSZ and/or Natural Order)
- Affinity if I get Revoker online
The bad matchups of Steel Stompy include:
- Goblins (if lackey connects and I don’t draw Champion/Jitte)
- Natural Order/Show and Tell
- Possibly Team America (haven’t tested this matchup much but should be neutrally favorable)
Since I knew I was expecting a ton of Merfolks, Affinity, Gobs, Bant, Junk, NO, I knew the deck was going to do well and have a tough time against various matchups. I wasn’t willing to face against a potential Belcher deck in game 1 with Landstill and lose to blue fishes, so I decided to fry them up with Sword of Fire and Ice instead.
MATCH 1: Dude with SCG Green “I <3 fatties” sleeves playing Belcher
I took out my hand-drawn Landstill playmat and place my solider tokens next to my deck box. This guy had the SCG “I <3 fatties” sleeves and I thought to myself: “Great way to start game one, a bad matchup!”. We joked around a little and he won the die roll.
He passed the turn and I immediately put him on Belcher/Dredge. On his next turn, he goes Land Grant (Thank God for me not playing Landstill!! Although I did go 2-0 on my Belcher opponent on Saturday in the Legacy Challenge, anyway back to topic). He reveals Rite of Flame, Ritual, Desperate Ritual, SSG, ESG after dropping 2 Petals.
I answer his double Lotus Petal with Tomb + Revoker and he looks annoyed. Next turn I followed up with Chalice @1 and Wastes his dual. Played a Lodestone Golem and slapped Revoker with a Plating and get there in 2 turns.
Game 2:-4 Overseer, -2 Crucible, -1 SoFI +4 Thorn of Amethyst, +3 Ratchet Bomb
He goes first and passes the turn AGAIN! I guess I’m lucky. I draw the nuts and start my first turn with Mox Diamond + Land into Chalice@1 and Chalice@0. He Land Grants next turn revealing 1cmc spells + 3 Desperate Rituals. I was not entirely safe but if I can lock him out with the THIRD Chalice in my hand, I should win this easily. I didn’t draw lands for the next two turns (thanks 23 lands), and he didn’t draw outs/business as well, and 2 turns later, I followed up with a Chalice@2 + Lodestone + Wasteland to seal Match 1.
MATCH 2: Chris with Death and Taxes
He leads with Plains + Vial and I sigh inside. Death and Taxes isn’t a favorable matchup despite no testing since flyers + Mangara owns my ass hard. I answered his turn 1 with an Overseer. On turn 2 he Revoked my Overseer making me more sad and I followed up with a Crucible + Inkmoth. The Inkmoth + Crucible turned out to be crucial in this game, answering his Serra Avenger. He plays a Port shortly to answer my Inkmoth, and I waste his Port (I have Crucible out). He drops Mangara and I answer with my own Revoker and play out an Etched Champion. He cannot swing in the air as Inkmoth keeps it in check while I slowly push in with an immortal Etched Champion.
Game 2:+2 Cursed Totem, +3 Ratchet Bomb, -4 Steel Overseer, -1 Darksteel Citadel
I answer his Mother with a Cursed Totem (in bed!). My hand was x2 Golem. I resolved them one by one and each ate an StP (he was low on lands). Meanwhile a Serra Avenger is chipping my face in the air. He got another Avenger online and a Flickrwisp and it was GG in 2 turns when he’s beating for 9 in the air.
I kept a good hand that is good when stompy goes first: Tomb + wasteland + Chalice + Champion + Plating + Revoker + Stuff
Turn 1 Chalice@1 and he looks a little in trouble. I drop Champion on turn 2 without metalcraft since his StP is locked under Chalice and Oring/Mangara don’t matter on turn 2. I equip Plating turning on Champion (lol this sounds wrong) and Champion gets in there as a 5/2 and grows to a 7/2 next turn to seal up the game fast.
Chris was a cool guy. He mentioned that he found the deck interesting. I wished him good luck and we met each other in almost every round after (sitting and playing next to each other in other matchups lol)
MATCH 3: Chris with GW NOrder (finished 6th place!)
I played Chris and lost to him on Saturday’s Legacy Challenge playing UWb Landstill. His deck was fairly strong, but I was ready to surprise him with a new deck. We talked to each other and he comments on our matchup yesterday (good games BTW) and as I lay down my Landstill playmate and soldier tokens I win the die roll and lead with an Inkmoth. He looks at me “Inkmoth? That’s not the same deck!” He plays a forest + Hierarch and on my turn 2 I play another Inkmoth + Steel Overseer. He drops a goyf turn 2 and I play out a Chalice@1 protecting Inkmoths from StP. He StPs Overseer in response and I pump two Inkmoths to 2/2. I drop an Etched Champion next turn, play another Inkmoth and hit him to 4 poison. Eventually the board position was:
Him: 4 lands, Goyf, 7 Poison, 12 life
Me: 3 Inkmoth (two 2/2) + lands, Etched Champion, Phyrexian Revoker (2/1 with +1/+1 counter), Chalice@1, 13 life
This is where I punted and costed me the matchup entirely. He plays out a Noble Hierarch and grabs a Natural Order sacking Hierarch into a Terrastadon nuking my 3 Inkmoth (which will kill him next turn). We both forget to check that Hierarch should be countered by Chalice. When I realized the mistake after my draw step and playing a land, I called for a judge and asked if it was possible to rewind. The judge confirmed with the head judge that they are not going to rewind, and I sit there hitting myself so hard. He would have natural ordered anyway but he had to sac a Goyf, and it was precisely the goyf that was stopping me from being able to race his 12 life with the three 3/3s, Champion, 3/2 Phyrexian Revoker that I had in play. I lost this. I’m really annoyed I lost an otherwise winnable game, but I learned a big lesson regardless.
Game 2:-4 Overseer, -2 SoFI, +3 Cursed Totem, +3 Tangle Wire
This was a close game I don’t remember much except that he was locked under Cursed Totem (killing 2 Knights, Hierarch and a Pridemage). Regardless his knights were still big from fetches and he was going to kill me next turn. I had him at about 4 poison tokens from a lone Inkmoth (not drawing creatures), and finally needed to topdeck one card to win: Plating. A jitte would have been a turn slow since it doesn’t pump instantly, and Plating putting Inkmoth to just a 6/1 won the game.
He leads with a turn 2 Pridemage. I open a strong hand of 2 Chalice, 1 Crucible, 2 Inkmoth, 2 Champion (i.e. Champion is all I need in this matchup). I play Inkmoth he waste, I play Inkmoth he wastes). Pridemage gets there and I don’t see lands (got my 3rd land in play but my hand was dead at that point).
Wasteland is THAT good. I drew very below average, but that’s what you get sometimes when decks shit on you.
FEATURE MATCH 4: Chris Vanmeter with Team America
At this point, I was a little unstable from my punt against GW. I was in a feature match and since I’m not really been to big competitive circuits, I went to my table number like a n00b and was called to the feature match table after 2 minutes passed. I shuffled up and Chris was a nice guy to talk with. I told him that this is the 3rd Chris in a row I’m playing against.
I win the die roll and lead with Ancient Tomb playing Revoker, blindly (since I have 2 revokers in hand) naming a Pridemage (my hand was double Revoker, Plating, Tomb, City, Jitte and I figured that it was aggressive enough to utilize Revoker’s disruption to get some counters on Jitte fast).
He follows up with a Wasteland on my tomb and comments “I just gave away a lot of information on what I’m playing”. We laughed since Wasteland is played in like every deck? He brainstorms next turn off a Sea and initially I put him on UB Merfolks although it’s clear now that he’s playing TAmerica. He drops a goyf as my Revoker + Plating is eating in. He swings with Goyf and I resolve a Jitte and get I again. He follows up with an EE@2 clearing his Goyf and my Revoker + Jitte + Plating. I hit myself for not playing the 2nd Revoker forgetting that TA lists now play 2 EE maindeck. I play my 2nd Revoker but it was no match for Tombstalker GG.
This game, I drew a bunch of lands since the only cards relevant were already in my opening hand.
Game 2:-2 SoFI, -2 Umezawa’s Jitte (these suck since they cost too much and get Stifled or Snuff Out = huge tempo loss), +4 Thorn of Amethyst
I lead with an Tomb + Chalice which resolves, keeping a hand of Opal, Champion, Tomb, Thorn, Inkmoth, Chalice, Crucible. He hymns away my Thorn and 2nd Opal drawn (making it a less powerful hymn). I resolved Champion. He grips Chalice@1 EOT and gets a Tombstalker online which I shrink to a 2/2 with 2 inkmoth + 1 Blinkmoth pump. I can now try to race with my Champion. He gets a Jace online, Snuffs out my manland at one point, and Champion is without metalcraft. A second Tombstalker comes in to fateseal my game.
I saw 2 Revokers in game 1, and 1 Etched Champion in game 2. I don’t like bitching, but Chris Vanmeter was a great player and I know I wasn’t a great player, but I knew my deck runs 20 creatures and this was not representative on what the deck could have done. The whole 2 games, I was getting very impatient/annoyed that I was not drawing into any threats while he was playing out more threats than I was running 8 creatures and having cantrips locked under Chalice.
SCG called me over for an interview cause I guess my deck looked like a weird pile lol. I answered their questions happily, glad that the deck got some notice. I tried explaining the point of the deck and its interactions and philosophy, and its approach to winning games. I’m not very good with interviews but I think I did a good job regardless.
MATCH 5: BYE
At this point, I was about to just say fuck it and drop. I was really pissed at my punt against GW, and just having drawn terrible 3 games in a row (game 3 against GW, two games against TA). But I knew that after the interview, I had to do this deck some proud. I mustered some morale and head to my table.
To some good news, I got a bye although I would have wished to earn it legitimately. SCG didn’t update their system I guess so I was luckily paired against a person who dropped. I’ll take this win regardless and try my best
MATCH 6: Justin with UB Merfolks
He leads with an Island and I pray hard inside to play against Merfolks. He plays a Mutavault and Standstill and I try my best not to look too happy. My hand was: Blinkmoth, Wasteland, Champion, stuff. I waste his Mutavault and he wastes my Seat. This made my Blinkmoth very happy as it starts ‘pounding the shit out of him’ for 1 damage a turn until he was at 13. “I have never done this before,” and Justin cracks his own Standstill. I draw to 10 cards with double champion, double revoker, SoFI, Lodestone Golem. He plays a Adept revealing Coralhelm and pass turn. I bait FoW with Etched Champion which resolves, so I played out another champion, and baited his daze with Revoker. He dazes, drops Coralhelm, and next turn I play out another Revoker naming coralhelm, slap on a SoFI and the game ended shortly.
I finally draw some creatures: I keep an insane hand of Tomb, 2x Revoker, Champion, Lodestone, wastelands. He mulls to 6 and leads with vial. I turn 1 Revoker he doesn’t have the Daze. I wasteland his lands, follow up with Champion + Lodestone and it was over soon.
Justin was a cheerful funny guy. I told him to shake him off since my list just has an inherent good merfolk matchup.
MATCH 7: Quinn with Goblins
He leads with Mountain Lackey and I go fuck. My hand was: 1 Overseer, 1 Tomb, 1 Master, 1 Opal, 1 Diamond, 1 Jitte, 1 Seat so I know that either I win this incredibly fast or lose incredibly fast if he had multiple removal.
I respond with Overseer which he bolts, Lackey resolves and he drops a Ringleader fueling a hand of Incinerator, Sharpshooter, Chieftain. Thank god my 2nd turn was Seat + Opal + Diamond + 5/5 Master unkillable by Incinerator + combat maths. He plays a Chieftain and passes turn. I get a Jitte equip next turn and start bashing in with a 6/6 Master. Quinn kept up with Jitte because goblins is that stupid, but Jitte ends up sniping every gob he eventually plays.
He leads with Mountain Lackey and I go fuck again. I have turn 1 Overseer as a response. He swings in and I block successfully phew! With Lackey out of the picture, this game becomes much easier. I get Champion + Lodestone online which stops his attackers, Overseer pumping them larger each turn made it impossible for him to block/race.
MATCH 8: Drew with Imperial Painter
Drew and I are buddies back at Houston/Asgard and I’ve played his Painter list a ton. I joked to him that he should had played his (CAB)-Jace control deck which I would had crushed (we had to convince him to play Painter against a field of Merfolks, WTH!!! :P) I’m glad we both came this far. Our other buddy playing PFires Big Zoo with Zenith ended up having to play two counterthopter in a row, forcing his matchups to go to draw and not having a better record. Drew and I were in contention for top 16. I knew this was my chance to beat him (tested this matchup before and it’s about 60-40 in my favor due to Chalice/Revoker/Ratchet Bombs). Oh how wrong was I. When Drew’s in his hood playing Painter, you don’t win. (Drew Top 4’d Dallas a year ago with Imperial Painter)
He wins the die roll and leads with Grindstone. I mull to 6 and have Revoker answering Grindstone and resolved Chalice@1 to shut off his blast to protect my Revoker. Drew follows up with Painter + Jaya and makes me feel dumb that Revoker + Chalice are going to die and that I’m going to lose. Yupp, I lose.
Game 2:-2 Crucible, -1 Overseer, +3 Ratchet Bomb
I lead with a non-sol land (sadly but my hand was insanely good: 2 Revokers, 1 Chalice@1, Champion). Drew sneaks a Grindstone into play. I play a turn 2 Chalice@1. He gets Painter online. I play Revoker naming Jaya and Grindstone just in case. Drew Stingscourgers my Revoker naming Jaya blasts off my Chalice and REBs my replayed Revoker next turn and grinded me with just enough mana.
I LOSE!!!!! I was kinda pissed that he had outs to something as insane as 2 Revoker + Chalice@1 (no bolt/no REBs for him to get out of the mess). Drew told me he was considering not boarding his lone Stingscourger and decided to. He drew everything against me! So I QQ’d more that I missed Top 16, but I was happy regardless that Drew did well!
So there’s a 5-3 Lodestone Golem at SCG FW. I knew the deck was well-capable of a strong 6-2 contention had I played a little better and drawn just a little better in one match, or Drew drawing a little less retardedly. Regardless, I also knew that there were some mistake in the decklists. I should have gone 4 Platings, and probably have played 2 Ornithopters. Theses decisions were decided against due to limited playtesting. I wasn’t ready to let my emotions take the results of multiple testing and switch my list.
- Eugene and Drew for driving the Asgard crew up and back respectively.
- Asgard crew for bearing with this annoying deck and helping me playtest quite extensively over the past few months
- The deck for being a blast to play, and blowing out unprepared opponents, and having the solid potential to go 6-2 if it had a better pilot.
- SCG Interview for this deck although I can’t find the link
- SCG for successfully holding these circuits and increasing the popularity of Legacy AND card prices :P
- Merfolk resolving Standstill against me :D
- Lodestone Golem for being awesome.
- Plating for being a lifesaver topdeck and the best equipment in the deck.
- Drawing 3 creatures (2 revokers, 1 champion) against Team America
- Punting the GW NOrder matchup
- Playing drew in Round 8 and losing to his stone-cold nuts (that’s what she said), therefore finishing 27th while Drew takes 12th. Grats!
- Getting home at 2am and work next day.
How did he Blast your Chalice at 1?
Nice report and interesting deck. I'm only a bit confused by siding in only 2 Cursed Totem against D'n'T ? I mean that card seems nuts in hating Mangara and Stoneforge Mystic...
Are you into Jazz? Have a look at the Lp's I have for sale on Discogs!
@kiblast: I actually forgot about SFM, so yes boarding 3 in would be the right call (stops Mom, SFM, Mangara). I don't really know what DnT plays. I'm familiar with the deck 3 years ago, and I'm more familiar with Green and Taxes and the Wb and GW variants.
I have a big revelation based on observations in SCG. There's the interest in going:
4 Platings MD
4 vault of whispers (improves metalcraft, with a mox = instant speed equipping platings, which is huge)
This is the core of the new build that I will eventually test, but all these function synergistically but the big question remains:
Can 4 Mox Diamond + 3 Mox Opal + 4 seat + 4 vault of whispers support 2-3 Tezz 2.0??
I would imagine drawing a Mox and either artifact lands would make Tezz castable. Tezz is quite nutty in affinity (as seen by the 1st placing list). I'm not sure if I can support UB with the configuration mentioned here. If I can, I believe Tezz could be the missing piece to win fast (without combat when needed), draw cards, power on when I'm out of gas, or put myself out of the life-danger zone when abusing ancient Tombs and racing other aggro decks.
The interesting thing that creeped up to me with this idea was because there's one card that really solves the issue of GWx decks (with/without) NOrder that I have trouble with: Perish. 3 Perish in the SB with 4 Diamond, 3 Opal, 4 vault can be easily casteable, the way Master of Etherium can be easily casted. This is the direction that I'm taking for the deck, and i will be working extensively on testing it out. I feel that GWx decks are my shakier matchups. They're usually 50/50 (it all depends if they get knight out). Cursed Totem was great, and Tangle Wire helped a little against NO/Show. I do know that Perish is the very answer I need against such decks, but I can't drop Master. Playing 4 vaults could increase overall synergy with Master/Plating/Plating insta-equip/running Perish, and if I can work it out, playing Tezz 2.0
Great job despite the bad luck! Cranial is such a bomb, I agree, you need 4 with Jitte/Sofi as your extra pieces. As for Tezz, I have no idea if your deck can support it without springleaf drum. But you have mox diamond so it might be possible. Might have to cut back on the wastes/manlands to support Tezz though. Cheers!
Really enjoyable read, sounds lke you had a blast!
I joked at the start of the tourney that I might go 5-3 (which I'm fine with). Turns out Drew (Imperial Painter) had to fulfill that prophecy! I'll Natural Order into force of Savagery. They won't know what hit them! (at worst it pumps Goyf +2/+2 to NO into Force of savagery).
The unsolidified slots are: 6 equipments. During the tourney, I felt that if maybe I had just ran 4 Platings and nothing else, I would have been able to do just as fine if not better. SoFI was great but never really gave me wins out of nowhere where Platings did. I wanted to play a deck with Opals and Lodestone Golems and I knew I didn't enjoy the style of Meandeck MUD, so this was as close as I could go. Opal is quite busted in the right deck, makes you feel like you're playing Vintage MUD against Legacy decks when you draw those hands.
Congrats on the finish Metalworker!
Did you ever get a feeling that 4/2 split on Opal/Diamond might be better than 3/3? Did the increased amount of land in this deck compared with MUD make Diamond more reliable or consistent to cast?
The 4th Diamond is worse than the 3rd Opal for sure. But if the list is more focused on fast mana, then the 4th Diamond is definitely worth the inconsistencies. I.e. If your goal is to get an extra mana on turns 1 onwards, then running the 4th Diamond is worth it if this is your primary goal. Steel Stompy isn't about 3 mana on turns 1 (part of the deck designed to minimize the need to hit 3 mana on turn 1, e.g. I don't play Metalworker/Trinisphere). Steel Stompy needs to hit 3 mana on turn 2, and does not need 3 mana on turn 1 (although it can use it). With this philosophy, the discussion becomes 4th Diamond v.s. 3rd Opal.
On paper, 3rd Opal will look worse than the 4th Diamond, but remember that you don't need to hit 3 mana on turn 1, so the analysis isn't about fast mana, but rather minimizing dead cards. The 4th Diamond results in more clunky situations thatn the 3rd Opal. If you drawn 2 Opals in the course of the game, the 2nd Opal is a dead card. however, if you've drawn the 2nd Diamond through the course of the game, note that resolving the 2nd Diamond involves a total of 4 cards invested: 2 lands pitched to 2 Diamonds. Most likely, you would had played your land drops that the Diamond becomes a sitting dead card when drawn ( just like the 2nd Opal drawn), so both cards are terrible when drawn in multiples.
Now, the 3rd Opal increases the frequency you see them in the game early, just as the 4th diamond does. Since this deck does not need 3 mana on turn 1, fast mana is not an issue, therefore Opal is in every way superior because it does not cause card disadvantage. The 3/3 Diamond/Opal split was tested from 4/2 split for abuot 2-3 months, and it is definitely the ideal configuration.
Now, I'm willing to test 4/3 diamond/Opal split in order to support 2 Tezz 2.0 maindeck (with 4 Vault of Whispers) and 4 Perish in the SB but I know that this will probably be a bad idea since the sacrifice to running Tezz 2.0 smoothly involves a lot of dead cards/card disadvantage. The correct configuration that I'm calculating and playtesting to support 4 Master, 2 Tezz 2.0, 4 Perish will be:
(note that if you have either artifact land + any mox, you can play Tezz 2.0. Supporting 4 Perish is the same as supporting 4 Master when considering 4 artifact lands + 6 moxes).
The probabilities with 23 land and 16 lands with x opening lands are:
To cast Mox Diamond on turn 1 utilizing at least 2 mana, you need 2 lands in your hand. I was most satisfied with 23 lands because when testing this deck out, you usually always want to see at least 2 lands in your hand. The safest configuration is 3 lands in opening hand, this way you know that for the next 2 turns, you still have 4 business spells to play even if you draw lands. With 3 lands opening hand, if you don't draw lands, the hand is almost good to go for the next 2-3 turns. If your opponents have a Wasteland, you dont risk losing to Wasteland if you fail to draw another land. I feel that a lot of times, if your deck does not run fetch/basics i.e. if you open an opening hand of duals, you better pray that you have 3 dual lands instead of 2 since wasteland is going to wreck you. In fact the 23 lands was also based on a lot of recent winning lists e.g. even Zoo lists with Wastelands packing about 22-23 lands (much higher than before). I think the shift to higher land count was both to support playing with Wastelands, and having some resiliency against Wastelands. 22 lands was tested and the differences with 23 lands was slight. You get more 2-land openers than 3 lands, and from many playtesting, I was most comfortable with 23 lands (in fact in a 61 card deck).
There's also the less obvious fact that I tend to view Wasteland as a tempo/disruption card costing a land drop, so that technically means 23-4=19 mana producers although Wasteland can serve as a mana producer in various scenarios.
The reason why I don't enjoy Meandeck MUD is because of the inherent maths. The deck ran into lots of mulligan issues. It's definitely a strong deck when the correct mulligan decisions were made, but these could have been avoided in the first place. The deck does resolve the 16 land 3 Diamond issues by playing Grim Monolith, so the combination of Sol-Land + Grim Monolith can still produce 3 mana consistently. I'm just not a fan. If you look at the 16 land hands, you are going to draw 2 lands with highest probability, followed by 1 land. This still supports Mox Diamond (since you should draw about 2 lands in most games), but there is a very high chance that you only draw 1 land in many games (29.24%) or no lands (9.92%). Meandeck MUD's design is a lot more complicated though since it involves utilizing other cards to offset its low land count.
I appreciate the in depth explanation for the 4th Mox Diamond. I asked (perhaps unclearly) how the 4th Mox Opal would work with only 2 Mox Diamonds. This would perhaps allow the deck to squeeze by with only 22 lands. With the added artifact lands, this would allow us to more consistently reach the 3rd mana point on turn 2.
I'm fairly terrible at statistics (even for being an engineer), but what's the odds of seeing 2 or more Mox Opal in the course o 10-15 cards? (aka dead draws)
Oh sorry if I misread your question, I've never tested 2 diamond/4 Opal split. On paper it seems that there's not much to gain from that configuration (you get the diamond late game by running 2 copies i.e. you would have played out lands by then, and you may draw double opal quite frequently).
I'm terrible at statistics as well, but I know just the little basics. I can try testing 4 Opals/3 Diamonds (which I feel will still be superior to 4 diamonds/3 Opals for reasons stated above). You can still support 3 Mox diamonds if you dropped to 22 lands (as given in the post above that you will still consistently draw 2-3 lands in opening hands).
But here's the maths before I do any testing:
Running 3 Opals in 61 card deck:
Probability to draw x Opals in y cards (y = total cards drawn over course of game)
x=1, y=7: 27.83% (opening hand)
x=2, y=7: 3.15% (opening hand)
x=1, y=10: 35.43% (turn 3)
x=2, y=10: 6.38% (turn 3)
x=1, y=13: 40.74% (turn 6)
x=2, y=13: 10.40% (turn 6)
Running 4 Opals in 61 card deck:
Probability to draw x Opals in y cards (y = total cards drawn over course of game)
x=1, y=7: 33.27% (opening hand)
x=2, y=7: 5.76% (opening hand)
x=1, y=10: 39.99% (turn 3)
x=2, y=10: 10.99% (turn 3)
x=1, y=13: 43.09% (turn 6)
x=2, y=13: 16.86% (turn 6)
So it's about +2.6% for opening 7, +6% for turn 3, +7% for turn 6 when comparing 3 Opal v.s. 4 Opal.
I think the 6% threshold should be considered significant (I don't know how to test significance, but it's definitely not a small number).
I had thought about running 4 Opals and ZERO Diamond a few weeks ago, but never tested it since I can only do that much Real-life testing for these theoretical lists. There is the added benefit that Diamond has over Opal that is not analyzed in these calculations i.e. Diamond gives an extra mana on turn 1 when you don't draw a Sol-land, something that Opal cannot achieve. I haven't found the best well to organize these calculations in a documented fashion to work out ideal lists for testing, so a lot of the work is done by experience and decisions based on experience e.g. not testing 4/2 Opal/Diamond split.
If I have time, I think I can work out the conditional probabilitie for 4/2 and 3/3 Opal/Diamond split to find out what exactly is ideal on paper for this deck. The stat on Diamond is a little tricky (quite a number of conditions).
How were Winter Orb and Tangle Wire for you? And have you considered running at least one basic land?
During the Tourney, I boarded Tangle Wire against Merfolks (didn't see it). I never boarded Winter Orb since I didn't play agaisnt control/enchantress/lands etc. I would say with the MUD splashing ub for Tezz 2.0, I will have no need for TAngle Wires since I'm playing 4 Perish (I have outs to Progenitus now) and my possibly autolose matchup is now Emrakul (unless I play narrow hate cards like Ensnaring Bridge)
I tested 1 Basic Land but didn't like it. Sometimes I draw the Island against Merfolks. Many other times, the shift of Zoo favoring StP and playing with GSZ + bigger creatures has made little Zoo (The main deck playing multiple path) less relevant so I'm not too worried about Path to Exile.
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