4 SnapcasterOriginally Posted by fluuu
4 Counterbalance
4 Ponder
4 Terminus
4 Brainstorm
4 Plow
2 Counterspell
2 Spell Snare
4 Force of Will
2 Predict
2 JTMS
4 Top
1 Mountain
4 Island
1 Volc
1 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Arid Mesa
3 Tundra
SB:
3 Flusterstorm
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Meddling Mage
1 Monastery Mentor
1 Blood Moon
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Wear//Tear
3 Pyroblast
This is the list he played at that event.
I remember playing Predict...card was sweet, but I eventually dismissed it as just a grindy card. I didn't like that I couldn't float a card with it and how it had a decently high chance of being dead, with an upside of "draw 2".
Is it actually better than Ancestral Visions?
I've got a foil playset, so I'd love this to be the new secret tech ;)
In short, yes. Miracles real weakness is that we never could gain actual card advantage without cutting into the construction of our decks. Predict let's us do that, and since the quality of our cards are so relatively more powerful than anything else in legacy, when we draw cards more than we're used to, it's nearly backbreaking. Especially since it appears as if we're heading into a slightly more grindy metagame than in the past, but metagame predicting (heh...) is difficult with little-to-no events actually occurring.
Predict is excellent, and I, Mackan, and AnziD cannot recommend it enough. Usually resolving it once will put us extremely far ahead of any grindy deck just because our cards are better. See Mackan's original post about it, and you'll have more examples of how amazing it is.
I currently play 3 Ponder. Would you suggest/recommend cutting 1 for 1 Predict? I don't think I'll ever move to an ETA-less Miracles list so take that into account.
I think Ponder is still stronger than Predict. Mzfroste switched to 2 Ponder/2 Predict (in testing I assume), so take that for what you will. Also, streaming the 6pm EST daily at www.twitch.tv/anzi104 w/ Predictable Miracles. Come watch the deck in action!
I ran this list ( http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...p?DeckID=95698 ) prior to trying out predict. I moved the mentors to the side, cut Bloodmoon from the deck entirely, moved the Entreat back to the main, and finally cut a ponder to make room for the 2 predicts. The idea was that the point of drawing more cards was that the cards we were drawing were good at trading recourses with our opponent, so I didn't want to cut any counter magic or removal. Swapping the 2 mentors for 1 Entreat made room for 1 predict while leaving the deck with a "strong" wincon. Mentor was always at its weakest game 1 anyways, when our opponents have most of their removal, so it seems like a reasonable decision. Cutting the Ponder for the second predict was tough. T1 Ponder into T2 Predict is a nice curve, and ponder in general makes a lot of marginal hands keepable. I'm still not sure it was the right decision, and that I should instead cut a Jace, but I look at it as how many role players do I have. Top, Brainstorm, and my last 2 ponders are our card selection, and make hands keepable. You generally want to have atleast 1 of them in every opener. Jace and Entreat, and to a lesser extent mentor, is what allows us to outmuscle our opponent. I figured it better to go from 11 to 10 on card selection instead of going from 4 to 3 of muscle cards. Then again, we are so good at going over the top of our opponent once we've found the right cards, maybe card selection is just that important that the 3rd ponder is that necessary. The easiest way to figure this out is more testing, and so far the deck has done well in this build, but if I start noticing a trend of more mulls, then I'll have to consider putting the ponder back in.
The predict deck is very interesting, it is a good way to get an edge in the mirror and other grindy matchups without compromising the delver matchups.
I tested the deck, admittedly very little, and found that I feel weak in matchups where counterbalance isn't good. I almost managed to lose a match to zombardment after realizing that I have no feasible way to win game one. I think I need to test it more and get used to how it plays, but I think that finding space for a single entreat could be worthwhile moving forward. However, entreat presents the problem of needing double white which makes cutting the second plains more difficult. Maybe it is alright to compromise those weird matchups, but one thing that has always been attractive about miracles is that you can win every game against every deck.
Also, this isn't the biggest deal but with only one plains I've been sweating bullets against lands.
After a little more testing if I still feel the same way about the deck I'm going to try:
-2 spell snare
+1 plains
+ 1 entreat
and maybe,
-1 ponder
+1 jtms
Also, good job getting the discussion quality up, the last 10 pages had been pretty dark.
Extremely valid suggestion! I don't think I'd cut the ponder for the third Jace, and it's likely fine to go down to 3 snapcaster if you're gonna go with the 21 land 3 Jace build. I think we're all working with 20 land atm just due to how clean the deck feels, but it's definitely an idea to try out!
You're probably right about the ponder if I want a third jace it probably isn't the right cut. I agree that the full predict deck has felt great with 20 lands, I just believe that the second plains is the significant cost of doing business with EtA.
Predict has been a pretty exciting card as a relatively direct response to the rise of shardless. The card is our analogue to ancestral visions, but requires less setup and plays very well with top as a pseudo shuffle effect. How are you guys siding with this deck against shardless. With a significant increase in the amount of card advantage we can generate I believe that, once again, it is worth discussing leaving in counterbalance and overloading on decay targets.
Specifically, looking at the board you recently posted:
3 Flusterstorm
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Meddling Mage
1 Monastery Mentor
1 Blood Moon
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Wear//Tear
3 Pyroblast
I belive I would want 2 clique, 2 meddling mage, 1 mentor, 1 moon, and 1-2 wear//tear. Historically we've boarded in pyroblasts as a concession to visions, but as I understand it the new game plan is trying to go tit-for-tat with visions. Assuming we cut force, then there are still 3-4 cards left to cut. Especially with this board of 2x meddling mage I would feel better about leaving counterbalance in. Spell snare is a potential cut on the play, but the presence of hymn makes it difficult to pull the trigger on that. Perhaps the answer is to shave 1-2 cb, 1 swords, and maybe a snare, but that feels very middle of the road. The gameplan woud essentially be keep the board clear, land a meddling mage on decay, and play a moon or counterbalance to lock it up.
streaming @ twitch.tv/anzi104
come catch my misplays!
EDIT: There's some analysis at the end of the video today that I'd like some feedback on - it's kind of slow so you'd have to be patient in watching it, but if there is feedback, I'd love to hear it. If anything it could be a topic to discuss here. One of the topics was analyzing the kind of action that flashing in VClique EOT is and the other topic was evaluating Jace vs CB in low-resources game states.
Last edited by AnziD; 12-26-2015 at 07:04 PM.
Predict CRUSHES GBx decks, including shardless. Secondly, I'm not leaving in Counterspells in the matchup at all.
How does it crush GBx decks? Because we draw 2 (net 1) rather than crantrip?
LOL, exactly.
Say Shardless has resolved Liliana/Jace already, you don't have CB or your own planeswalker. Sure, you draw 2 cards instead of 1 using Predict, still doesn't changed the fact that Shardless is way ahead. Let's not kid ourselves here, Predict is no Dig, not even close.
Let me be clear here, I ain't hating on Predict. The credit of putting Predict in Miracles should go to Reid Duke, as seen here: http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=7584&d=243519&f=LE
He was running 1 Predict as early as June of 2014, that's before GP NJ. If he's running it, can't be that bad. Maybe Joe has tried one Predict even earlier. People have been there and done that in the past, but the conclusion appeared to be running 1 Predict is ok, but definitely not something that can change the board state when you're behind.
Try to win against G/b Post -.-
Predict has also been played in past countertop lists including bug and 4c Landstill lists since forever, it's not like it's super-secret tech or anything. It's good, just not untested.
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https://youtu.be/VIeuJ9xHUWo
Here's a sample of Reid Duke playing Miracles with 1 Predict. He managed to draw Predict all 3 games against Shardless BUG. Let's see how crushing it is.
Game 1: makes no difference.
Game 2: you could argue that he would not be able to find the out if he didn't actually filter the top 3 cards by putting 1 in grave and actually draw 2. I would argue that he didn't understand his opponent's out. He realized it after the fact that he could have take away the Pulse out by keeping StP and another card to feed Liliana. To me that's the actual difference, not Predict, he didn't have that much of a library by the time he cast the card.
Game 3: Predict actually makes a substantial difference. Reid decided to ride Clique to victory here. How often is that the case for Miracles? I would say pretty often. If you run Karakas, it's probably gonna happen. I sometimes ride a hate bear like canonist to victory as well.
bonus
https://youtu.be/aO8xduPWpLA
Game 3 against Omni-tell: Reid actually came up with an rare line such that he could use Predict as an insurance back-up policy. I don't think it's possible unless you've been playing Predict for a while.
Can someone explain me the sense of Baneslayer Angel?
Thanks
Baneslayer is good in a grindy meta. Strong against BUG decks, DnT (though good luck having enough mana to cast her), and random creature decks you might encounter. But since we're so good at dealing with creatures anyway, it's not really worth the 5 mana. She can blank Gdaddy, but SnS will often go for Sneak against us anyway so you'll never get her on the field.
As I thought. It doesn't make sense.
Against SnS the best draw possible is Priest
Against BuG I just plan for Pyroclasm/Mentor and anyway they play Stufle/Wasteland
Against DnT.... 5 mana non-flash spell? Just overwin then
I would think of MUD but anyway.. Snap + Tear are way better
A singleton predict in regular miracles shell is meh. 2 Predicts in a shell built to abuse it, a low land count, and snapcaster mage, is really really really good.
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