You Make the Play.

[SpikeyMikey]

It's game 2, turn 1. You're on the draw against a UGR Counterbalance deck. You won game 1, seeing some relatively standard CB stuff, Lavamancer, Clique, Tarmogoyf, Counterbalance, Force, Brainstorm and Preordain.

You play a Bayou and Thoughtseize. The remainder of your hand is Tarmogoyf, Tarmogoyf, Terminate, Troll Ascetic Taiga and Bloodstained Mire. Your opponent has a basic Mountain and a Lavamancer in play with a Scalding Tarn in the grave. He reveals a hand of Force of Will, Brainstorm, Preordain, Misty Rainforest and Tarmogoyf. What do you take?

















I went with Brainstorm. My guess is, he's going to Preordain on turn 2, one because he can (and will want to find a 3rd land, two to hold Tarmogoyf until it's out of Lightning Bolt range (because he doesn't know that I'm not holding it obviously) and three to fill the yard for Lavamancer. If he finds and draws a blue card, Force is still active, but if he blows Force of Will on a turn 2 Tarmogoyf, I still have another Tarmogoyf plus Troll Ascetic as threats and I know my Terminate will be clear on his Tarmogoyf. By taking Brainstorm, I limit his options to find things that I actually care about like Counterbalance or Sensei's Divining Top. If he two for ones himself to tempo me when I've got an advantage in hand strength, I feel like I win. But he was definitely confused by the move, going so far as to actually say "?" in the MWS chat window. Am I the only one that felt like Brainstorm was the bigger threat there?

[Lemnear]

Tarmogoyf. Then terminate his lavamancer to get the future goyfs out of bolt range and throw him Dead with creatures because he's completely dependend on his topdeck. Moreover if your opponent is not a damn good player he'll timewalk himself with his FoW countering a creature or ... Much better ... Terminate

[KevinTrudeau]

I agree with taking Brainstorm. You have a Goyfwall in addition to Terminate for his Goyf (you shouldn't really care about Lavamancer since you have a Mire in hand to make Goyf a 2/3), so you shouldn't take that. You shouldn't take Force because it means he had to hold back his Preordain just to counter your spell, hindering his progress, and if he counters your Goyf or your Terminate, he's pretty much out of gas to your additional creatures. Brainstorm gives the opponent the largest window to find a card or combination of cards in one turn that could swing the game back in his favor, so you should take that.

[dahcmai]

I picked Force, just to be able to shove both Goyfs through unimpeded. You can then terminate his goyf if he plays it and try and run the table with two goyfs that are too big to lavamancer away and out of bolt range. Sure missing out on the 2 for 1 in that scenario sucks, but there's something to be said for rushing against a control deck. A lot would depend on the creature control I saw the first game. If I had saw EE, I might change my mind over that.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

His hand already has relevant cards so you don't take Brainstorm, Force doesn't hurt you much so you don't take that. Preordain is worse than Brainstorm, so you clearly take Goyf. Kill Lavamancer and drop Troll and then a couple Goyfs and Just Go Kill Him.

[Phoenix Ignition]

Basic mountain + fetch land make me take Preordain over Brainstorm. Brainstorm really isn't that good without having a fetch land, at least not compared to preordain. Most things in his deck need at least two Trops in play to cast, so in the situation where he's just digging for lands I would go for Preordain over BS.

Force of Will doesn't affect your hand at all (in fact you want him to cast it), and your creatures are better than his. If he brainstorms and doesn't find a fetch then you've as good as won. Granted he could draw another land on his turn to fix his mana problems, but then once again all he has is Force + blue card to stop your superior hand.

[Malakai]

This is actually a very, very interesting situation. However Lightning Bolt doesn't kill Tarmogoyf regardless of which card you take, unless someone's graveyard has cards removed.


So far the opponent has chosen to:

1. Lead with Scalding Tarn into basic Mountain.
2. Play Grim Lavamancer.
3. Not set himself up for casting UU spells in a timely manner.
4. Not hold up Brainstorm as protection from Thoughtseize.
5. Not counter your Thoughtseize.

From all of this we can infer some scenarios:

1. He intends to setup Goyf+Lavamancer, and is hoping you will take one of the other three cards. If this is the case not Forcing Thoughtseize is wrong.
2. He intends to leverage his cantrips in order to setup an end-game. In this case not Forcing Thoughtseize makes sense.

In the first case, taking Tarmogoyf is backbreaking to his strategy, while taking any cantrip does very little. Taking the Force of Will also isn't entirely effective; you get to kill his Tarmogoyf, but then he can leverage his two remaining cantrips on his third turn to find either a replacement or an alternate plan.

In the second case, taking Tarmogoyf is fine as it allows you to put pressure on him to carry out his plan. Taking either cantrip directly disrupts his plan. Taking Force of Will is terrible as he probably doesn't want to cast it anyway--most likely the card(s) he's searching for are blue.

However, we can't just consider his side of the game. We have to consider our plan as well. Given the hand you have, your plan is to beat him down with Tarmogoyfs and other creatures, and killing his blockers when necessary.

Against #1, your plan is terrible. Imagine you didn't have that Thoughtseize. He drops goyf on two, then you either Terminate which gets Forced and he has a whole turn to attack you and play whatever, or you drop a goyf which resolves. On his turn he casts Preordain, then passes. If you still have the Terminate it's still going to get countered--possibly by Spell Snare or Counterspell now--and you proceed to lose the game from there. Sure, you have multiple guys, but you can't profitably attack, and at some point he's going to have CounterTop or Jace or Vendillion Clique.

Against #2, your plan is actually pretty good. Imagine you don't have Thoughtseize again. On his next turn he's going to grab basic Island and cast Preordain, then at best drop a top. You can proceed to play your guys, and can Terminate his goyf without a hit to tempo, and most likely it's going to resolve. Meanwhile he has to find both a second blue source and the Sower/Jace/Threads/whatever that he's searching for.

So what do you take? If he's on #2 you're going to win without Thoughtseize so it doesn't matter what you take, although taking Force is wrong. If he's on #1, however, you have to take Tarmogoyf.

Interestingly, if he's on #1 he has misplayed by not countering thoughtseize. If he's on #2 he has misplayed by not fetching a basic Island on one and casting Preordain.

[kiblast]

I'd pick Brainstorm. This way he can't play Preordain if wants to keep FoW playable. Goyf is not a problem considering your Terminate. Your Goyfs are substantially safe out of Lavamancer's range, and he have to find his Bolts to kill your Goyfs, but without cantrips it's really difficult. Turn 2 I'd play Tarmogoyf- Just to see his Fow wasted.

[menace13]

I take Goyf there. If his Goyf resolves I can't do much without Lavamancer burning out my Goyf after his blocks/swings. Cbalance has an anemic threat count, so the cantrips have to find 1 of 3 Goyfs left. Anything else like Jace/Clique can be outraced with the multi Goyf hand.

[Nihil Credo]

Given that you're going to quickly have at least 3 card types in your own graveyard, an unassisted Lavamancer isn't a real problem for you; the priority becomes to stop him from sticking a Goyf, because once he does all your three creatures are stalled. Your options are taking Goyf directly, or taking Force and Terminating the Goyf. Given that in the former case you'll probably get one of your threats Forced, and in the latter you'll have to spend a turn on Terminate, the options are mostly equal tempo-wise. However, taking Goyf is safer: he now needs to dig for a second Goyf, whereas in order to stop the Terminate-Goyf trade he also has the option of drawing any number of Forces, Cliques, or possibly odder stuff (Spell Snare, CB to go with Brainstorm, etc.).

[dahcmai]

With three threats in hand you're worried about getting one countered? I still kind of have to side with just pushing them all through and terminating his. That's a lot of poundage coming in soon against a deck that uses red as it's removal color of choice. Even Cudgel troll becomes dangerous at that point. It's counting on you not drawing into other removal also vs them drawing into counters. Tricky, but I can see how you would come up with that. It's a tempo thing, I just like being aggressive in these matches. How many threats does RUG play typically? I haven't played the deck so that's some bearing. If it's really threat light past lavamancer, taking goyf might be the better choice.

[daugarten]

This "You Make the Play" thread needs to be a series of some kind. There are many new players to Legacy, like myself, that can gain tons of insight into basic and complex strategies. I've learn a lot already just from this one scenario alone.

Who's going to make that happen??

[KevinTrudeau]

After thinking about it further, I'd now take Tarmogoyf. Goyf+Lavamancer means that none of your three creatures can safely attack into the opponent, and a board stall situation easily favors the Counterbalance player, even if he's stuck on one blue land with only a Brainstorm in hand (Preordain would likely be pitched to FoW to counter the Terminate if you take something other than Goyf or FoW). I still wouldn't Terminate the Lavamancer after taking Goyf.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

'Goyf. Given 'my' hand, that puts the opponent on the defensive and forces him/her to find and waste some kind of answer, all while lowering their already quite low threat density. Brainstorm and Preordain will get the opponent there eventually, but he/she will be wasting turns and mana. In the meantime, I'm developing my board position. Plus, with 'Goyf gone, I can fairly safely bet that Force will target one of my 'Goyfs, thus removing access to one of the cantrips. And given my hand, FoW isn't going to hurt me at all. Instead, it will keep my opponent reeling on his/her back foot.

[Muradin]

Take that Goyf, Force is garbage against your hand.

[RaNDoMxGeSTuReS]

You take the Tarmogoyf because it's all he has. Taking either cantrip is pointless because he's bound to find something whether it be garbage or gold.

Picking Goyf is the safest and probably smartest choice here.

[Tiago_B.]

Id take goyf, it would be easier to put him on a clock with 2 goyfs in my hand, even if 1 gets countered.

[SpikeyMikey]

This "You Make the Play" thread needs to be a series of some kind. There are many new players to Legacy, like myself, that can gain tons of insight into basic and complex strategies. I've learn a lot already just from this one scenario alone.

Who's going to make that happen??

I can come up with more. This one was just interesting to me because I wasn't really sure which way to go. Normally, if you Duress/Thoughtseize someone, FoW is almost a snap take, just because it can end up stopping some bullshit down the road, but in this case, I actually *wanted* him to Force something, just because it puts him down a card when I've already got a superior hand and the board is so empty. But I'll keep an eye out for other situations where judgement calls come up and post them.

[Draener]

Clearly, you take the mystery box... it could be anything... even a tarmogoyf.

[Koby]

Take the Goyf and force him to deal with the steady stream of Goyfs from your hand. Lavamancer will not be able to deal with even one, and he has to draw miraculously to be able to answer all those threats. You get rid of the goyf so that yours aren't facing a goyfwall.