Not sure which forum to post this in, but I'd like to know what the percentages are for seeing a single Leyline in your starting hand, assuming that you are running a full set. I know that its ~40% in your opening 7 but what about if you mull to 6, 5, 4, etc. What about a Double leyline, per each (includng mulled) hand?
I'm also currently running a set of Leyline of Sanctity in my UR Sneak Show decks SB. I'm in two minds about it though. If I don't see it in my starting hand it is an essentially a dead card barring SnT'ing it or using double Lotus Petal to cast it (Petal often gets boarded out anyway). On the positive side it completely blows out Burn, AnT and tremendously helps against discard heavy decks, which can be a huge pain in the butt. But not seeing it in the staring hand means that I have 4 dead cards in my deck...
My question is: Do you consider it a good move to run an off-colour Leyline? Any numbers to prove the benefits/disadvantages?
Thanks.
Originally Posted by (nameless one)
The odds of an opening hand (7) having 1 is 40% and having 2 is 6%. As you mulligan those values go down but I wouldn't base my decision to run them solely on numbers because numbers do lie. In my experience against Ichorid, I lost game 1 then I sided in 4 Leylines and drew one in my 7 and won. Game 3, I mulled to 6 and drew 2 Leylines. lol. Like you said, you have SnT/Tombs/Petals and cheating it into play shouldn't be a problem for you in case you draw it later on. The odds of drawing a Leyline increases from 44-60% by turn 5.
I think it is worth it to run them since decks that they are good against usually have little to almost no outs at all. LoS against Burn for example, they'll simply retort by attacking with 2/2's. ANT without Mystical Tutor will be in topdeck mode to find their bounce spell.
If you're interested in the mathematics of the game, I would check this site out
The Mathematics of Magic the Gathering
The articles may be older, but the math doesn't really change.
Nice call Fossil. I ran across that site a few years ago and since have used the hypergeometric distribution function in Excel extensively for deck construction. That's the part that applies here as well. I've actually considered writing an article on the importance of using probabilities to maximaize ideal lines of play in deck construction, but I'm too lazy to sit down and actually do it. Regardless, it's not just me that does it. I know Caleb does the same thing (using the built in MWS function instead of Excel) when he brews. If you want to be a top tier builder, learning to use probabilities is your first step.
Ah thanks a lot for that. I remembered someone had done that, but didn't know the site. Useful info there.
86.5% chance to see at least 1 copy if you mull to 1. Unless that card is life or death, I wouldn't mull to 5 just to see it. You still have to keep a hand, with it or not, that has a shot at doing something. Keeping Leyline + 5-6 weak cards is just begging to get blown out by ETW or discard decks just dropping guys and beating face. Unless you're playing against Belcher or something, you're gonna see more cards than your opening hand, even more so in blue decks.
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