I think the link to this will go up on SCG's main page on Monday, but if you're going to Atlanta, you might want to see it now. It's got breakdowns of the last four Opens, matchup statistics for the most popular decks, and a graph of their popularity since New Phyrexia.
Nice article, thanks, look like the format is finally maturing around some stable decks.
What's EV?
If you fail to explain the reason behind your choice, technically, it's the wrong choice.
Zerk Thread -- Really, fun deck! ^^
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If you fail to explain the reason behind your choice, technically, it's the wrong choice.
Zerk Thread -- Really, fun deck! ^^
I think what they mean by it is expected performance of based on historical matchup records and the make up of the open.
If you fail to explain the reason behind your choice, technically, it's the wrong choice.
Zerk Thread -- Really, fun deck! ^^
We calculate the EV ("expected value") number by multiplying a given deck's aggregate matchup win percentage against another deck (right now, that would be the overall matchup result since New Phyrexia became legal) by that other deck's percentage of the field, then doing the same for every other matchup the given deck could have faced, and then adding the results together. The result is an average of a deck's win percentages, weighted by the breakdown of the tournament. It is the win percentage against a random matchup in that field.
We introduced this concept in our analysis of the Boston and Charlotte Opens back in May. Although the numbers are outdated, now, I'll quote the partial calculation, in case it makes things clearer.
I hope that makes sense. We aren't too sure how to interpret EV numbers, or the differences between them and actual performances, simply because it's difficult to define the significance of either. However, they are interesting, and we've decided over the course of writing these articles that win percentage and EV are close enough, often enough, that deviations are at least worth mentioning.For example, to calculate Merfolk's expected value for Boston, we multiply its matchup against the mirror over the course of the year (49.58%) with Merfolk's field presence in Boston (11.11%), which equals 5.51%, then add Merfolk's matchup against Bant (50.90%) times Bant's field presence (9.52%), which equals 4.85%, and then continue through the rest of the field, for a final value of 51.74%.
An EV of 51.74% is not exceptional, but it is positive, and it isn't far from Merfolk's actual performance in the event. If the numbers were further apart, we might seek explanation, such as matchups somehow changing for that event, or pairings that were not representative of the field.
Ok, so let me see if I got it right:
You get the data from previous tourney, calculate EV using the aforementioned algorithm, and compare to the current data to check the deviation from EV to real winning % against the field?
Oh, and if this is so, could you post the next EV for these decks? :D
If you fail to explain the reason behind your choice, technically, it's the wrong choice.
Zerk Thread -- Really, fun deck! ^^
I think one thing stood out for me very oddly. The low amount of Maverick being played, which is no surprise to anyone in the USA. It's incredible how few people play it here in the US, while its numbers in Europe are abundant.
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Just want to repport 1 little mistake in the SCG Pittsburg chart. According to it, there was 1 "Hulk combo" deck in the field, that finished 131th with a 2-2 record. I was in fact playing "Hulk combo" and was probably the only one at Pittsburg, and my result was 7-1 + 2 I.D. for a 4th position. I understand that did not matter a lot, but still.
Conclusion: Right now, play NO Rug if you're good and want to do well in a big tournament. If you're feeling a little lucky, go for Hive Mind which has greater variance.
The seven cardinal sins of Legacy:
1. Discuss the unbanning ofLand TaxEarthcraft.
2. Argue that banning Force of Will would make the format healthier.
3. Play Brainstorm without Fetchlands.
4. Stifle Standstill.
5. Think that Gaea's Blessing will make you Solidarity-proof.
6. Pass priority after playing Infernal Tutor.
7. Fail to playtest against Nourishing Lich (coZ iT wIlL gEt U!).
Right now, RUG is popular and is a bad time for playing Hive Mind. U/W Stoneforge is a better choice since it has decent match ups against the tier decks.
I'm considering NO Rug > UW because it just has the sickest sideboard options being UGr. Especially red with Ancient Grudge, Red Blasts, Grim Lavamancer and maindeck Bolts and Firce Ice destroy like half of the format right now.
The seven cardinal sins of Legacy:
1. Discuss the unbanning ofLand TaxEarthcraft.
2. Argue that banning Force of Will would make the format healthier.
3. Play Brainstorm without Fetchlands.
4. Stifle Standstill.
5. Think that Gaea's Blessing will make you Solidarity-proof.
6. Pass priority after playing Infernal Tutor.
7. Fail to playtest against Nourishing Lich (coZ iT wIlL gEt U!).
I would like to point out that 4C Loam decks have been flying under the radar. With an EV of 54%+, it has outperformed Team America and BUG in the last 3 Opens, decks which were previously dominant post-MM.
Are you into Jazz? Have a look at the Lp's I have for sale on Discogs!
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It looks like your deck from Pittsburgh was listed as "NO Toolbox", though it was listed as "Hulk Combo" in Providence and Boston. There are a few other decks that have been called "Hulk Combo" (including the 131st place deck in Pittsburgh), but since I don't have the lists, I don't honestly know how similar those decks are to yours.
i know for fact belcher went 4-5 in boston and won matches against burn, rdw, glimpse si, and non-existant opponent number 1. lol. By the way playing four turns of draw go against that si almost made me crap my pants.
It's a great article, keep up the good work! ^^
Could we have the EV for the next event?
If you fail to explain the reason behind your choice, technically, it's the wrong choice.
Zerk Thread -- Really, fun deck! ^^
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