1-((43*42*41/53*52*51)*43/53)=57% (including Ponder shuffle and the chance to redraw a card)
You are right ... stupid brainfart and twisted numbers at 7:30am. Thanks for pointing out my nonsense. To the question: mull into a likely slower hand in a meta with plenty of softcounters, discard and hatebears or go for a coinflip instead ... tough. I can't really blame anyone mulling here. I, personally would go for the coinflip (Ace+King vs. Bottom Pair)
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Having visual opening hands like this being dissected is really interesting and fun to watch. I personally find it much easier to recognize the hand with a picture, with opening hands in the primer I've always had to take my cards out and lay the opening hands in front of me to really get hold of what's going on. :) I would not have kept the first hand in wonderPreaux's example, but after Lemnear doing all the work I would definitely have kept that hand.
I really liked the old version with two Ad Nauseams and I feel like it could really be good in this metagame with all the discard going on. I would love to have a discussion about possibility of adding another AdN to the MD or is it just completely useless at the moment?
Hand 1:
On the play this hand is pretty bad, if I had another blue card to imprint so I can ponder and keep a mana source I'd probably keep it though. That said, on the draw you basically only have LED and Mox as bad draws, and you have a high chance of going off t1/t2 with protection on the draw.
Hand 2:
Always keep this. Probably just Brainstorm on their end step.
Hand 3:
I'm pretty inclined to keep a lot of hands against miracles, as the game is bound to go long. This hand kind of sucks, but I'd rather have it than a 6 card hand I think. Unless you know they're doing something that demands a fast response (basically Meddling Mage or Canonist) you're not really under any pressure to disrupt their plan in the immediate future.
Hand 4:
Even if you hit a black source, you aren't doing anything productive. Ship it.
Hand 5:
Keep it. Probe to see if you need to therapy/seize, ponder if you don't.
Hand 6:
I don't see any reason to mulligan here. It's certainly not great, but it's fine.
Hand 7: I'd keep this unless I know I'm under a huge amount of pressure to go off turn 1 (Chalice decks, Belcher), but even then the chance of drawing an LED/Brainstorm are probably better than having the nut five.
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JD Nir pointed this out to me.
From yesterday's open (377 total participants - who says Legacy is dead?), forgive me for my spotty notes and memory. I went with the full-discard protection package with 2 Duress and 1 Thoughtseize (and one more in the SB).
Round 1 - Corey on Bant
G1 - First turn Hierarch, I Probe only seeing Daze as interaction. Second turn he taps out for Mystic playing a land he just drew. I cast 16 goblins on my turn, flashback Therapy on Batterskull
G2 and 3 - Between these two games I mull three times. Between counters on on my cantrips and quick creatures, I am unable to get back into the game
0-1
Round 2 - Eric on monoblack Pox
G1 - 12 goblins on turn 2 does the job
G2 - A Sinkhole and Wasteland slows me down somewhat but I'm still ready to Ad Nauseum soon. However he topdecks Hymn and Liliana to keep me hellbent. A Rack does it's best Delver impression early on.
G3 - 16 goblins on turn 2 with natural EtW in hand. I made a mistake and used my land drop before cantripping without any red source. However Brainstorm finds Petal to save me.
1-1
Round 3 - Anthony on U/R Painter
G1 - I have no lands but three cantrips and a Chrome Mox. I hate mulliganing so I imprint one to try to find some lands. Unfortunately maindeck REBs make that impossible and a Painter followed by an Intuition into Grindstone ends the game
G2 - I probe and see he has three Grindstones, Therapy in my hand does best Ancestral imitation. He topdecks Welder and drops LED. I Abrupt Decay it the first chance I get. I Ad Nauseum and have to go all the way down to 1, risking bolts but I didn't think he played them (he didn't). I still needed to cast some cantrips in order to find the 0-cast artifacts to win. Whew!
G3 - He has an early Painter. I cast Therapy planning on naming Grindstone and he FoWs my spell, and drops Grindstone right after that.
1-2
Round 4 - Mike on Oops All Spells
G1 - He turn 1's me
G2 and 3 - In both of these games I have an early discard to set him back. By the time he has Probed and Wraithed himself low to try to find what he needs, I can naturally spell-chain him with Tendrils.
2-2
Round 5 - Phi on Elves
G1 - Turn 2 Ad Nauseum
G2 - Turn 3 Ad Nauseum after my opponent mulls. He says he plays with and against Storm a lot. I ask how he on Elves does against Storm. Answer, "The opposite of undefeated"
3-2
Round 6 - Matt on RUG Delver
G1 - He Dazes something on turn one and because of an early Probe and his sequencing I know he has no additional interaction. T2 Ad Nauseum
G2 - Because of 3 Probes, I have to go off around 13 life with no mana floating. He has a Volcanic untapped and I know he has Stifle and 2 Bolts in hand. I stop at 5 life because I don’t want to get bolted but I only have a Petal for black mana. I discard his Stifle and summon 20 goblins. I flashback Therapy, he bolts in response putting me on 2, and I discard his last one. I need to avoid Delver flipping two turns in a row, I ask him to flip his top card and it’s a Daze
G3 – I probe him and see Scalding, Wasteland, Volcanic, Surgical, 2 Pierces and Brainstorm. Seems pretty good, except I drop 12 goblins T1.
4-2
Round 7 – David on Team America
G1 – I Therapy away two Hymns early, I drop 12 goblins on turn 2, flashback Therapy on Brainstorm just in case he can find some sort of answer, miss but it doesn’t matter.
G2 – Notes are spotty but I know I get hit by Hymn and a 4/5 Goyf takes out my life in 20% increments
G3 – I probe and see Delver, Clique, Pierce, Goyf and 3 lands. He draws and taps out for DRS on his T1. On my T2 I have plenty of mana and this is my chance but no business. Ponder, brick, shuffle, draw another Ponder, cast it and find an Infernal! At that point I naturally spell chain into Tendrils
5-2
Round 8 – Nick on Death and Taxes
G1 – I haven’t punted all day so might as well now. I’m ready to go off around T3 and lay down a Petal which he then Vials in a Revoker naming Petal which makes the second in my hand dead and unable to continue. No problem, I ponder see Ad Nauseum and grab it quickly to go along with Dark Ritual in hand and pass the turn. During my next upkeep he Ports my only live red source (Volcanic) and I have two other Underground Seas. I forget that Ad Nauseum is an INSTANT and can be cast in response to Port. By the time I realized my mistake my life is too low to matter
G2 – Keep a slower hand and hoping to hit the right hatebear with Therapy. Cast it calling Thalia and miss seeing Spirit which hits the table soon. Makes my top-decked Brainstorm bad. By the time I get rid of the Spirit with the Pyroclasm in my board, it doesn’t matter.
5-3
Round 9 – Nick on Sneak and Show
G1 – I probe and see Emrakrul x2, Show and tell, Top, Sneak attack among lands. I Therapy away Show and tell. On his turn he casts Top on his turn. I go for it knowing I can get past Pierce and a topdecked Force would be useless without another blue spell. He spins Top, I resolve Ad Nauseum and go from there.
G2 – Nick goes heavy control mode Spell Piercing my first two or three cantrips. I only have Burning Wish eventually in hand so I go for DimRet path which seems like a bad idea to refill his hand but I don’t have much choice. Even with UUU floating thanks to LED I have to pass after drawing new 7. A turn later he casts Sneak Attack but doesn’t have a second R to put a creature in play. On my turn I can opt to go for it and take a chance he has no counters or cast my Swarm, pass the turn and hope he doesn’t have a fatty to sneak in. I go for Swarm route, pass turn, and a Griselbrand enters the play on his turn.
G3 – He still goes full control mode, Piercing an early cantrip and Forcing a Swarm. I try to resolve a Burning Wish, he Pierces, I Ritual in response, he Forces the Ritual. I still have mana in hand but no business. He only has 1-2 cards in hand but only an Island and Tomb for lands and pitched two Show and Tell’s for the Forces. We topdeck for a couple of turns and I pick up an Infernal Tutor. I go for it against his three unknown cards and he opts to Swan Song my ritual instead of waiting for my business spell instead which was a mistake. Ad Nauseum finishes off here.
6-3 (finished 53rd out of 377)
Quick Props: Wife for taking care of kids all day and buddy Jon for lending cards and making ride up with me
Quick Slops: Sloppy play on my part including a couple of warnings
Why do most lists not run a main deck Tendrils? I been wanting a main deck Tendrils sometimes when Wish is turned off by Meddling Mage or just can't get enough mana to Wish for Tendrils.
Davelin
When ur opp put sneak in play you should have gone 100000000% for the combo.
He has only 4 fows but 8 creatures plus cantrips in his turn and tops. So he will have/find the guy 99%.
If you go for it and he does have fow and dont draw the 1% guy u may be can recover. But waiting is sure a mistake.
More than 95% of TES these days run EtW main and ToA in the side because the later is a terrible topdeck unlike EtW and it opens up the possibility of dropping turn 1 goblins with 6 mana and infernal tutor. A MB ToA would leave you without action here which is relevant facing discard or hatebears. It is all explained in the OP, dood
The stock list has 6 discard spells, 1-2 CoV and 2 pyroblasts to remove/prevent Meddling Mage. I have no clue what your problem is here.
You don't have 6 mana for Wish into ToA? How would a MB ToA help then? Are you talking about Infernal -> Wish -> ToA here? Makes no sense for me
Cutting Infernals but running PIF maindeck looks like crap
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Because it's usually a terrible card to have in your hand.
Natural Tendrils is a pretty long shot in this deck. Note that we don't run Cabal Ritual for near infinite mana.
The Empty the Warrens we play main instead is actually an awesome card to have in your hand.
So not playing Tendrils main means the only "bad" cards we play are the Chrome Moxen.
Edit: Ninjas. Ninjas everywhere!
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Re: Hand #1
Looking at the numbers, you have 57% chance of going off, and in half those cases you're getting goblins. I'd think the ability to win some matchup right then with goblins, and play around Daze/Pierce more than balances the odds that you might be playing against a blue opponent with FoW. So it leads me to ask: how averse is this deck to a mulligan when chancing a whole game on 57% odds is a comparable option to mulling to 6? I'm sure knowing what you're playing against in g2/g3 would add more clarity to the choice, but do you often find these sorts of hands where you shoot it off "Belcher Style"?
Re: Delver hand:
I think I see more of the appeal of this hand now. In these counter-heavy matches, can you often make a hand with above average levels of stable mana and disruption work, despite the slowness? Or is this more of a case of Pyroblast affording you the opportunity?
Re: Miracles hand:
This is more of the same line of reasoning as above, how viable is it to sort of "hunker down" on these slower matchups wen you have stable lands? I agree with using the Wish to look for Seize while using the stable mana to hold out for an answer to Counterbalance, since the deck can find a lot of fast mana to go off. Is that often what you try to angle towards when you can't sneak a combo though Clique/CB?
Also, I really appreciate the positive response I've seen from everyone else too. If no one minds the image-heavy posts, I'll likely end up posting some more of these as time goes on. I'm really enjoying the cross-examination and learning a bit more about weighing these different angles.
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Would swap the tendrils main for empty. possibly leave tutor config. but the extra slot no idea. would probably in reality just be best as a tutor( leading right back to the original config) but could be something else to leave the BW> IT line open. don't know how good that is these days. haven't played in months so take everything i say lightly. I do know that used to be a thing though (IT in the board for a BW target). I'll dig and read and find out why its bad. i know its somewhere in this thread. something about density of business.
Foresight should have been 20/20 on that one too. You were literally hoping he didn't have a creature to sneak attack into play.
Overall sounds like you did pretty well with the full discard package besides getting unlucky a few times. Did you end up keeping the land base the same with City of Brass, Gemstone mines and 3/3 fetch/duals?
The other day tested the F.Fortune List posted fewpages ago, wasvery good, I faced a Miracles match up which I won...
I really think like F.F. that is not needed A.Decay vs Miracles if you play the Full Discard Package, the only change I made regarding this list was -1 Xantid + 1 Pyro so having then +1Duress +2Pyros was enough to handle the Miracles Match up. but still keeping the 4 moxen. Now you can play a No Silence TES List and still name the deck TES!! Yeah!
Another issue:
i was able to won a Match up with vs a Death and Taxes with a Thalia in play AND I didnt even had the need to put up the bear, sure nobody got this ;)!
If any is interested I can say how this Match up was...
@Royce, Bryant, F.F. , Bahamut and Lem:
Ok I agree that 5 fetches can be excessive, but I think that 3U.Sea - 1 Volcanic vs 2U.Sea-2V.Island makes more sense to me. what do you think about this?
I think scenarios in which you have a Discard effect and a V.Island can occur more than others in which you have no Access to the Red sorce. but all this is theory...
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Yes, I am advanced and you know it...
Suggestion: Play Magic as a Hobby. Competitiveness is uniquely usefull in this Era and just to evolve the human being to a certain extent...
I stop paying attention for a couple months and all of a sudden people aren't playing Silence? What's next, cats marrying dogs!?
"I'm willing to imagine a TES where Past in Flames replaces Ill-Gotten Gains entirely, and we just don't play Diminishing Returns." - me, 29/09/2011
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