New article up (http://theepicstorm.com/looking-glass-elves-vs-storm/) where we sit down with Julian Knab to talk Elves. This is the first in what will be an irregular series where we approach the deck from the other side of the table, sitting down with experts in other archetypes and picking their brain on how they approach the matchup. Very special thanks to Julian for his excellent insight!
Eternal Weekend Report - 23rd Place!
http://theepicstorm.com/eternal-week...17-23rd-place/
Couple questions from a new TES player.
The list on the site had cut the Bayou and Decays last month, but Bryant showed up with them for EW and for the Open this weekend and I would like to know what influenced that decision and what the best Decay targets are? If it's purely a meta decision I would like to know what decks the Decays are best against, because initially I was pleased to cut the Bayou, I don't really want that in my sideboard.
I'm also really curious about the raw number of Empty the Warrens that are in the SB now. I understand that these are no longer Wish targets and are coming in to make sideboard games where Goblins are good win cons easier to do without tutoring for the card? I don't understand how ending up with multiple Empties can ever be good though, after we've blown our hand on going off once I have to assume no game really goes long enough to Empty again.
I thought Bryant ran the pure Grixis website list for EW. As for the multiple Empties, having empty in hand reduces the mana cost required to make goblins while simultaneously insulating you from Force of Will. This is good in Delver matchups due to the fact that it helps against soft permission, hard permission (force), and the fact that low amounts of goblins are usually enough to kill a delver deck since they don't normally have sweepers. This is why two extra copies are sided in vs Delver decks.
@Bayou & Decays
Its the way of the least resistance if you otherwise would have to gamble on if UWx (Miracles) boards in Counterbalances or Canonists. The list of cards available to cover both without splashing green is short
@Multiple EtW
The two core ideas are to have 4 mana playlines and reestablish pressure in case your green team gets wiped
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Thoughts & changes after the last few weeks: http://theepicstorm.com/deck-list-up...weekend-scgdc/
Latest Matchup Mulligan - Sneak & Show.
http://theepicstorm.com/matchup-mulligan-sneak-show/
Interesting read, there's no shame in returning to the older manabase and Abrupt Decay - Counterbalance/Soothsaying unfortunately made that inevitable. As some one who pushed the Goblins plan as hard as he could, I don't think the Goblins plan is worth the SB space because eventually people tech for tokens - be it Empty the Warrens, Monastery Mentor, Young Pyromancer or True Name Nemesis the hate is out there and the hard copies of Empty the Warrens often force you to take those play lines when you don't really want to. You're possibly better off with Massacre and Consign/Oblivion in the board, D&T aside I see a lot of Meddling Mages so Massacre has enough applications elsewhere. I'm not a big fan of Telemin Performance anymore either, the problem is the card is a HUGE gamble in game 2 vs ANT and Lands because a lot of those guys have creatures to SB in so it's often a lose condition post board and chokes on Chancellor of the Annex vs Reanimator.
List I'm running if it's of any interest,
MD
1 Ad Nauseam
1 Empty the Warrens
3 Infernal Tutor
4 Burning Wish
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
3 Duress
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Dark Ritual
4 Rite of Flame
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox
4 Polluted Delta
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Swamp
SB
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Grape Shot
1 Diminishing Returns
1 Bribery
1 Past in Flames
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Thoughtseize
1 Consign/Oblivion
1 Massacre
4 Abrupt Decay
1 Bayou
I haven't tried the 2nd Past in Flames out in awhile, I assume you want to use it against Czech Pile?
Another episode of the series TheEpicStorm.com: TES MATCHUP BATTLES! is up and this time we face Dragon Stompy! Giving a breakdown of the matchup that we could face in a tournament and that is less of a major player, but has been around for a while.
http://theepicstorm.com/tes-matchup-...dragon-stompy/
Let me know your thoughts and opinions. Thank you.
- Alex Poling
WantToPonder
former: Team SpasticalAction & Team RugStar Berlin
Team MTG Berlin
The Dragonstorm
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...he-Dragonstorm
Thanks for the heads up! Just responded to you.
New article up by yours truly: Today I Fucked Up
http://theepicstorm.com/today-i-fucked-up/
Hi all. I'm a new TES player here looking for some sage advice. I've played storm-style decks before (High Tide in legacy, Doomsday in EDH, Gushbond in vintage, dragonstorm and eggs in modern a long, long time ago), and I've done a fairly large amount of goldfishing and testing with both ANT and TES over the past month. I've got an event coming up tomorrow and I was hoping to get a few pieces of advice before I shuffle the deck up for the first time in a paper tournament. I've read the vast majority of the information on the TES site, the last dozen or so pages on here, and everything recent on Reddit or MTGsalvation, but that amount of information can be a bit overwhelming at times. Assume I'm playing a relatively stock Grixis list (no Bayou unfortunately). My questions:
In a blind matchup, game 1 on the play, how many goblins is enough to warrant going off? I've seen Bryant go off for 10 on occasion, and others on stream/youtube going off for 10 pretty often. Obviously that's a turn 3 kill with no interaction, which is pretty threatening, but easily stymied by Deathrite Shaman, etc long enough for the opponent to stabilize. Is it still worth it to make 10 goblins? How does this decision change for you on the draw, and how does it change during games 2 and 3? If 10 isn't worth it, how many are?
Is it wrong that I'm often tempted to fire off Probe + Therapy on turn 1 to handicap my opponent's grip, even if I'm not prepared to immediately go off? I find that this play comes up pretty often for me, and I usually take that play instinctively even though I know it's generally better to hold your disruption until you're about to go off. As another layer to this question, does the fact that I often find myself with Therapy + Probe a sign of poor mulligan choices on my part?
Is it ever worth it to mulligan down to 4, barring extreme circumstances like 0 mana hands or 5 land hands? I've had objectively terrible 5 card hands that I've kept because going to 4 seems like you won't see enough cards to go off.
In paper games, how do you bait people into forcing mana sources? Online there are no false tells you can give, so it's all up to probability, but in paper you have the ability to headgame the opponent.
If you're playing against a known FoW deck and you have the ability to present a turn 1 combo (with LED/tutor as a chokepoint) with no discard backup, do you go for it? There's a Bryant quote that gets thrown around a lot that goes something like "my odds are never going to get any better," but that seems like a platitude, and I don't put a lot of stock in platitudes. If that rule of thumb is generally true, that's fine, I'd just like to read it in certain terms. I'm also aware that opponents' mulligans have a lot of bearing on this decision.
Thanks for taking the time to read/answer my questions, and thank you guys for all the great content.
Riding the Spiral
Note: 1-person's knee-jerk thoughts while I'm on a conf call so someone might want to fact check my numbers and s*
I'm usually plenty comfortable with 10 gobs T1-otp. The math works out even if the opp plays something like a DRS on each their T1 through T3 that they die to exactly lethal on your T4 barring anything weird happening. If you're playing against D&T and they have T1 play Mom with a SFM for BSkull follow-up; they still die to exactly lethal with 10gobs T1 OTP. Are there situations where you lose to something? Of course - I've played against Eldrazi opps that just had a magical hand of eye and then all the mimics and endless ones.
OTD my comfort level usually 14+ based on what the opp does. This is where it varies based on the opp having the ability to deploy a threat that blocks more than 1 turn.
I'm going with 'maybe'. I tend to be somewhat aggressive with my discard but it's contextual. If Probe is showing me crap I don't need to worry about a ton I'm assuming that you aren't just firing therapy for the sake of it. Is Probe drawing me into things where setup of my hand from there is better? What is the rest of our hand anyway? I'm not keeping hands with no direction based on 'probe, therapy, getcha'.
Mulligan questions - dunno...what was the rest of the hand? What's the opp on?
(Note I don't play online so, grain of salt)
In both cases I would assume you're attempting to use the (without slowplay) 'thoughtful play' to your advantage? It depends what it is, the opp/deck, and your 'reputation' to that point. I don't think of it very dissimilar to poker. If I've created the reputation with my opp that I take riskier lines or something that goes a long way. I've had FoW/Daze pointed at Petals and Moxes because I led with them before playing a land. I'll reiterate storm count at times or speed my pace of play to create the perception I've got the blinders on.
I mean, if you don't like that line/approach then don't go with it...?
That line of thought is based on an opp with 4FoW on 7 is ~40% to have one in their opener and something like 85-90% to have a blue card to go with it. As you can imagine the ability to find either of those missing components is going up some amount as they see more cards.
No problem, I appreciate the quick response.
This is exactly the kind of answer I was looking for, thanks. I have few/no problems with the technical side of the deck, I just don't want to get blown out by a lack of familiarity with optimal numbers of goblins. I know we're still primarily an AdN->Tendrils deck, but the opportunity to make a pile of green men on turn 1 can't be overlooked. I just don't want to waste that opportunity on too few goblins.
Yeah, I'm definitely not playing Therapy just to play it. What I meant was deploying it on turn one to go ahead and rip the Force that I'll have to deal with sooner or later. I think the reason a lot of players wait is that many opponents feel like they're safe, so they'll use their brainstorms etc. to find gas instead of interaction. That definitely makes sense, but ripping it turn 1 just feels so right a lot of the time.
That's exactly what I mean to do. I built a reputation for going for safe lines with Zur Doomsday in cEDH, so many times my opponents would take a little extra time preparing their interaction for me. If I could find a line that won a turn earlier, it often meant they weren't ready to interact sufficiently or had tapped out the turn prior. I'd like to find techniques that accomplish the same kind of thing in TES, and didn't know if there were any specifics that you professionals use. ;)
I'm familiar with the math. My question was mostly if that 60% chance of resolving your line is enough to warrant going for it. Are most experienced TES players comfortable with that number?
Riding the Spiral
So I play this deck in a very chalice/D&T/lands heavy meta, and really heavy on wastelands. I have all the duals, except no Volcanic, and am wondering if I should play a Swamp, a Mountain, or a Steam Vents in its place. Please advise
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