Let me set this straight: you want to remove Ad Nauseam and EtW (Because of terminus) in your MB for the Emrakul (vulnerable to Terminus + Karakas) and 3cc setup spells because you wanna gamble against SDT/Ponder/Brainstorm finding one of these outs within 2 turns with Emrakul not entering the battlefield before turn 3 in 97% of all cases? Is that correct?
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You shouldn't be siding in Xantids versus Miracles anyway. It seems like a lot of your issues are in understanding match-ups. Also, how the hell is Top good in a deck that wants to win turn 1/2? This is what frustrates me about you Mario. It's the same concept that you had with your Deathrite Shaman idea a few months ago, you keep adding in midrange concepts into a fast deck. It's not where you would like to be.
I stopped bringing them in bryant. You were right. If i could have t1-2 hands consistently in sideboarded games through protection i would absolutely agree w you. The deck isn't consistent in that aspect. Top completely sucks if your only land is gold, but on 1 landers you are in a rough spot vs miracles anyhow. I was able to beat miracles solely through amassing better cards. I feel that exclusively in the miracles match, we need a backup plan in case our opener cant jam. Having top+decay accomplishes that better than needle+decay.
Actually, i think duress makes the deck more midrangey than silence does. I need my protection spells to always help me go off, not sometimes.
You sideboard out one to two copies of Chrome Mox in that match to ensure a higher card quality, while not slowing down the deck to a halt using poor cards like Sensei's Divining Top in a deck with admittedly, not a lot of shuffle effects and Gemstone Mine which shouldn't be used for rearranging cards. Our back-up plan should be to grind them down with storm cards that are applicable in other match-ups while not hindering the deck, if we don't happen to have Pithing Needle or Abrupt Decay.
Your statement about Duress is ridiculous and further proves that you are having a tough time understanding the fundamentals of the deck. Duress along with Cabal Therapy actually make us faster as they reduce the colored mana requirement of our combo turn.
I actually just bring out every mox. Sure, duress does improve speed. I don't value speed as highly as you do in the deck and it reflects in my play.
While I do understand and agree with the dynamic of Deluge over Golgari Charm that you mentioned, Meddling Mage in Shardless BUG is a thing. Savannah in the SB to power Meddling Mage is something Lejay popularized, I ran into it last night (playing against Lejay), and it does pop up once in a while. I might try the Pithing Needles next time, leaning on maindeck Tendrils to beat possible Meddling Mage, if I had Pyroblast they'd really shine though.
I have tried running Pithing Needle in place of Surgical Extraction and I think the choice may be dependent on the metagame. Surgical Extraction is stronger against Reanimator, Rogue Hermit (on the draw), and various dredge strategies, whereas Pithing Needle is stronger against Belcher, Wasteland + Deathrite Shaman decks, and Miracles. I think we already have positive matchups against Wasteland and Deathrite Shaman decks, and many cards are already being boarded in against Miracles.
I have found little difference in consistency between running 4 fetchlands over 4 Gemstone Mines, with the downside that a Badlands may be necessary in the maindeck. Running 4 additional fetchlands helps against Wasteland decks as you can play the fetchland and pass to have 2 lands available on the next turn, in addition to the obvious benefits of having additional shuffle effects with cantrips. I would probably run Scalding Tarn over Polluted Delta to try to disguise as Sneak and Show/Tempo, but I prefer the old frame.
I haven't had any trouble finding a business spell with 3 Burning Wish + 3 Infernal Tutor, and I think the Cabal Rituals in the maindeck are required to consistently find Ad Nauseam through Burning Wish + Infernal Tutor as well as bolstering the Past in Flames plan. I could go down to 6 discard, as Burning Wish can act as a very slow hand disruption spell, but I've been happy with 6 tutors.
After the Brainstorm, assuming no LED + cantrip (roughly 8% of finding this combination) was hit off of the brainstorm, I would have one IMS (land or Petal) + 4 cards in hand, two likely being a Rite of Flame and an Empty the Warrens with the option of having a guaranteed Chrome Mox. Therefore, in order to cast the Empty the Warrens on turn 1 I would have to find +2 mana, so Rite of Flame, 2x Lotus Petal, and Dark Ritual work, which (if my math is correct), comes out to roughly 38% (16% to see 1 out of 3 Rite of Flame out of 54 cards, 2% to find 2 out of 3 Lotus Petals assuming no Rite of Flame, and 22% to find Dark Ritual assuming no Rite of Flame), to make 10-12 goblins on turn 1. In order to cast a tutor I would need +4 mana in addition to finding the tutor, which would be difficult (turns out my top 3 cards were just that, but I think this is a low % play).
Of course, doing these calculations would be impractical during an actual game, but your approximation was close, about 45% to make 10-12 goblins if we used Brainstorm on turn 1, which may be better than gambling on 8 goblins turn 1 (which loses to turn 1 Deathrite Shaman/turn 2 Stoneforge Mystic, barring sweepers, which would beat any number of goblins). In figuring out whether to use the Lotus Petal or fetchland, I think that using the Lotus Petal has a higher upside, but has the potential of resulting in a hand which has no action on turn 2 (a loss due to Thalia). This is highly unlikely though and using the Lotus Petal probably gives the best probability of a guaranteed turn 2 win.
EDIT: Math
Last edited by DireNTropy; 08-07-2014 at 03:51 PM.
Exactly.
pros:
- you reduce the average mana cost of threats in 2 , regarding A.N via I.T. and B.W. to X so you'll be quicker than ever. Ex.: Land+Rite+B.W.+LED.
- it avoids Conterspell effects once you have the setup.
- avoids etherswornn canonist
- I believe that can be an alternative plan vs other decks, Ex.: Blade Control.
Cons as said:
- Emrakul + Shelldock Island + 1DD needs to go to main on 2nd and 3rd match ups.
- vulnerable to Karakas or 3rd turn Terminus only in your turn.
- not sure if a M.M. naming Emrakul will ruin the plan also, I think so.
- Taking out EtW and A.N. main, the 3rd card could be ponder. (sure you take out A.N, but the virtual mana is 5 for I.T. and B.W.!)
I'm not saying I would play this, or it's the key to beat miracles but It's something I'd like to test vs miracles to see if it works.
can you guarantee that this does not work vs miracles?
I remember the Era when played DD and won a tournament, I had Emrakul main, and that time people was surprised about that plan, won some other tournaments and a friend of mine too. but next times we even removed Emrakul for 2 reasons: a) people finally expected Emrakul. b) is the worst card you can draw. I dont think a) occurs by the moment.
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I can't agree with the bolded statement. You can't amass better cards when you let them find their permanent based hate easier and/or let them float counterspells on top and/or resolve EoT entreat. If you want to amass better cards, let your cantrips do the work, don't fight them on the axis they are arguably the best deck in the format for fighting on. You aren't going to out-top the best sensei's divining top deck in the format, that's ridiculous.
I have no idea what you are talking about. If you are saying duress is slower, that's demonstratively false when you consider the color requirements for the combo turn. if you are saying duress is a lasting solution to counters, sure whatever. that does not mean we are midrange and aren't looking to kill people at the earliest possible opportunity. If you are finding the tradeoff on color requirements isn't worth blanket answering everything then stick with silence. I'm not finding them useful personally.
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I agree that having a Badlands as the only land in your opening 7 is terrible. My argument is that the likelihood that Badlands is your only land (and in this case, it's replacing a Chrome Mox, which is arguably worse), may be less than the likelihood that you would want a fetchland to produce black mana on the current turn and then red mana on the combo turn. The benefit to running a Badlands increases with the number of fetchlands and I have not decided whether or not it's worth the risk of not being able to cantrip on turn 1 (I have had to mulligan a couple of hands for this reason).
It also provides a slight benefit against Wasteland as a third land, since a single Wasteland cannot completely cut off of a color.
I often cast Burning Wish for Infernal Tutor and then pass the turn, but of course it's better to combo on the same turn. Cabal Ritual also helps with discard heavy matchups where it may be the only ritual you have in your hand and adding +3 mana is great value. However, Cabal Ritual is definitely the first ritual effect to be cut from the deck.
You are right, a single Dark Ritual is enough. That raises the probability of a successful brainstorm to roughly 46%. I think the Brainstorm play is probably the best play in that it gives you a decent chance to win on turn 1, while also providing setup for a longer game.
Last edited by DireNTropy; 08-08-2014 at 11:08 AM.
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The opening post has been updated.
I changed fronts yesterday and played TES for the first time after having some good results with ANT.
I sleeved up the 75 from the OP and went into mighty 4 rounds of action.
Round 1 burg Delver
I am on the draw in the first game and he thinks I am on Grixis Delver and keeps accordingly. He lands Deathrite via Tropical and says go. I can look at his hand with Gitaxian Probe and see nothing relevant. At this point I have Ad Nauseam and 2 LEDs in hand with the Brainstorm/Probe setup but manage to get there with additional 2 Probes after the Brainstorm, 2 Lotus Petals, 2 LEDs and Burning Wish for Tendrils. In the next two games he manages to assamble pretty powerful hands, where I draw mana sources. In the third game there was a situation where he had a flipped Delver and three cards in hand (one of which I knew was Spell Pierce), and I had some mana, Infernal and Wish but unfortunately Wish on Thoughseize was not possible due to not enough mana for Infernal > Burning Wish > Tendrils, and EtW wasn't an option. Up to this point I had just one Tutor and drew the Infernal from top, so I guess a earlier tutor for Thoughtseize wasn't a solid either.
I boarded nothing in game 2 and in game 3 2 Xantid Swarms. Not sure about that but I thought of giving it a try.
1:2
0-1
Round 2 Zoo
Easy MU where my opponent scooped to my second turn 14 dudes in the first game. In the next one, he burned me down to one life while I had just some cantrips and mana sources. I went for Brainstorm > found shit and Ponder > Ponder > Brainstorm and hit a Burning Wish which allowed a straight Tendrils kill.
Again, I boarded nothing.
2:0
1-1
Round 3 BWg Bladedeck (not sure how to call this)
I think that I went for a fast Ad Nauseam and killed him with Tendrils. In the next game the deck felt like a carddisadvantage machine because I cantripped into shit, had to shuffle and drew shitty cards like Rite of Flame or Chrome Mox while he had Ethersworn Canonist and Mother of Runes. In game three I managed to kill him with Ad Nauseam from 16 life without mana floating.
2:1
2-1
Round 4 MUD
I can storm him out in my second turn on the play with him having only a Glimmerpost (or something like that) in play. Ad Neauseam got there.
Then he sideboards nothing and slamms his cards onto the table: Chalice 1, Trinisphere and Lodestone Golem = gg. I had 2 Abrupt Decays here but opted to move to the main deck constellation for the decisive match. A fast AdN should be the key in this MU on the play. Or a good loard of discard against his hate permanents. In fact, he took mulligan down to 2!!! and I can combo him out easily with a solid AdN on turn 3.
2:1
3-1
Well, this was my first TES experience. I can see this deck well-positioned if people start slamming their GSZs, where the combo player is in need to win fast. Nevertheless, sometimes TES just discards cards because Chrome Mox is a necessary evil shit and the density of draws with weak mana accelerators (single RoF, Moxen or even multiple Petals without a business spell or a solid win) was fairly frequent. Certainly a fun deck to play and tougher to play than ANT. This assumption is true because in my opinion the difference between the complexity level is caused by TES playing weaker cards therefore the kill is sometimes harder to assemble. Past in Flames and the powerhouse Cabal Ritual were missed. Excuse moi for the comparative statement but as a ANT player it is easier to me to evaluate this deck in comparison to the other well-known storm deck. Maybe I will play this pile again.
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Actually, Lily, Jace and Detention Sphere effects don't work.
You get to cast Emry, so you get the additional turn, and then annihilate for six.
That's why this plan actually makes some sense. Not in TES, but in DD it does.
That's probably a Deadguy Ale variant: BW Confidant/Stoneforge stuff with Deathrites and sometimes some extra green stuff.
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re-read the primer. I understand more about needle's applications. I fear that with the myriad of ways miracles can still interact w/ us via CB/clique/counters, only shutting down one piece of that is narrow. Yes, the primary objective is to win early. Is needle actually more pro-active than more discard in that matchup? In my opinion, the matchup boils down to the following.
On play: you jam t1, or setup for t2-3 provided your opponent only has 1 source of instant speed interaction.
If miracles plays a top, game becomes considerably more difficult as additional discard is practically worthless.
On draw: If miracles has top, t1 is almost a must, discard is a complete dog vs active top. Without top, we can likely assume they have 2 ways to interact. In the latter, discard becomes excellent.
If we are ever in a situation when discard is bad, natural tendrils seems like the only avenue to victory. In the past, we had access to chant effects to compensate for discard's incapability against top. In my understanding, needle gives access to this angle of play against top without playing gold land AND is pro-active. However, needle is incapable of being the sole source of disruption to help us storm off, but paired with discard is potent.
For example, If opponent has one piece of disruption floated on top, they will likely draw it with top then allow needle through. paired with the discard, we will be able to go off that or the following turn.
But, with 2 pieces of disruption, opponent has two avenues. Counter the needle and still be protected (favorable for us if the 2nd piece is not force). or allow top to be shut off and require us to draw 2 more aspects of protection.
This is where my concern comes from and how I can't appropriately value the late-game implication of needling top and not being able to go off. Do our draws become comparably better than miracles since they no longer have sculpted draws?
Please inform me if I've misunderstood. Thanks Bryant
You render their card-quality machine AND their counterbalance-lock useless ... permanent ... for one colorless. It's not that Miracles is a one-trick-pony and was EVER a victim to a single card from storm, but if you manage to keep their CB-lock and SDT under control, you can grind them out of counters as they can stumble over a lot of shitty natural draws like endless lands or Miracles.
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You need to stop focusing on the long game against Miracles, while we can beat them there if need be, it's not about creating better draws over time. It's about ensuring that they don't have the right cards at the right moment, which is part of the hiding cards from discard spells factor. They're essentially allowed to have a ten card hand with a top in play, Needle is there to limit access to this additional, extra hand.
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