[Deck] T.E.S. - The EPIC Storm

[wonderPreaux]

I don't see this making much sense. You have one more IMS here for casting AN fast, but its a horrible card to reveal to AN as well

By the way, I would not squeeze in discard for the cost of cutting a Ponder

Chrome Mox and SSG over 2 Cabal Rituals is lower average CMC, and an additional IMS post Ad Nauseam. statistically speaking, the success rate should increase if i have a lower cost to turn cards over and lower average number of card that i need to turn over. the only thing SSG's cost really does to diminish AdN is increase the variance involved as one card cost more than it's replacement and the other costs less. If I get hit for 3 off SSG, yes, that does suck, but if I then don't have to keep turning cards over to find Petal or w/e, I forgo possible damages from multiple cantrips/discard etc.

[Lemnear]

Chrome Mox and SSG over 2 Cabal Rituals is lower average CMC, and an additional IMS post Ad Nauseam. statistically speaking, the success rate should increase if i have a lower cost to turn cards over and lower average number of card that i need to turn over. the only thing SSG's cost really does to diminish AdN is increase the variance involved as one card cost more than it's replacement and the other costs less. If I get hit for 3 off SSG, yes, that does suck, but if I then don't have to keep turning cards over to find Petal or w/e, I forgo possible damages from multiple cantrips/discard etc.

We can't create a statistic middle for damage for only 2 cards here and compare 2 Cabal Rituals to Mox+Land or Mox+SSG and say, "well, if I reveal both cards in question, Mox+SSG does less damage, so it's better".

I stick with 13 lands maindeck for better starting grips and one more SB slot

[wonderPreaux]

We can't create a statistic middle for damage for only 2 cards here and compare 2 Cabal Rituals to Mox+Land or Mox+SSG and say, "well, if I reveal both cards in question, Mox+SSG does less damage, so it's better".

I stick with 13 lands maindeck for better starting grips and one more SB slot

its not a statistical middle, the average cmc of the top card of your whole deck drops if you remove 2 possible 2cmc cards and replace them with a 0cmc and 3cmc card. since the average cmc of the top card of your deck is lower, you can turn over more cards on average without losing all your life. with more IMS, you don't need to turn over as many to reach 1 or 2 IMS, or however many you require. thus you are more likely to find the needed IMS and have an average amount of life lost that is less than your life total when ad nauseam resolves. the only issue is variance,the fact that while the average is lower, the actual result now sits in a wider range of actual possible results. I could calculate the relative impact of the change in variance versus the change in average success rate, but given the dependencies of life total, library size/composition and hand composition, that could take me hundreds of hours.

Like any prospective change, I'm gonna go at it with an open mind and try it out. If it's absolutely terrible, or a totally nutter SB that needs all 15 slots to warrant mained Trop comes to my attention, I'll switch off. But if the EV on SSG is even marginally greater than the variance increase vis-a-vis personal risk aversion, it is an improvement to the deck's primary win condition, and I think thats worth investigating.

[Lemnear]

its not a statistical middle, the average cmc of the top card of your whole deck drops if you remove 2 possible 2cmc cards and replace them with a 0cmc and 3cmc card. since the average cmc of the top card of your deck is lower, you can turn over more cards on average without losing all your life. with more IMS, you don't need to turn over as many to reach 1 or 2 IMS, or however many you require. thus you are more likely to find the needed IMS and have an average amount of life lost that is less than your life total when ad nauseam resolves. the only issue is variance,the fact that while the average is lower, the actual result now sits in a wider range of actual possible results. I could calculate the relative impact of the change in variance versus the change in average success rate, but given the dependencies of life total, library size/composition and hand composition, that could take me hundreds of hours.

Like any prospective change, I'm gonna go at it with an open mind and try it out. If it's absolutely terrible, or a totally nutter SB that needs all 15 slots to warrant mained Trop comes to my attention, I'll switch off. But if the EV on SSG is even marginally greater than the variance increase vis-a-vis personal risk aversion, it is an improvement to the deck's primary win condition, and I think thats worth investigating.

You can calculate how many more cards you can turn over for Ad Nauseam if you'd reveal the 13th land instead of the SSG for instance or evaluate the +3 for two damage off a CR instead of the +1 for three damage off SSG. Picking on a single manacost removed in total in a 60 card deck isn't worth the discussion of average cmc; the value of the card in hand or if being revealed to AN is and I doubt that revealing a land (which can be a needed IMS too) and drawing like 2-4 extra cards (to find Moxen/Petals/etc) is worse than revealing a SSG as a guaranteed IMS instead

[Asthereal]

When Ad Nauseam first can out I played 4x Simian Spirit Guide next to multiple Ad Nauseams.
Guide hurts, but the mana also helps to win. Running into a second Ad Nauseam was a big problem, otoh.
So if one here is to try Guides again, don't worry about your Ad Nauseam, unless you run multiple copies of it.

Funny thing. A couple of weeks ago I too suggested we could reintroduce Simian Spirit Guide.
I felt it fit TES better than the Cabal Rituals that have been tried for some time now.
I would be very interested in testing results or tournament reports of a TES list with Guides!

[Lemnear]

When Ad Nauseam first can out I played 4x Simian Spirit Guide next to multiple Ad Nauseams.
Guide hurts, but the mana also helps to win. Running into a second Ad Nauseam was a big problem, otoh.
So if one here is to try Guides again, don't worry about your Ad Nauseam, unless you run multiple copies of it.

Funny thing: a couple of weeks ago I suggested we could reintroduce Simian Spirit Guide.
I felt it fit TES better than the Cabal Rituals that have been tried for some time now.
I would be very interested in testing results or tournament reports of a TES list with Guides!

There as the talk about running one Guide instead of the 13th land (with one more free SB slot as a result), which is not compareable with a build including SSG as a backbone for fast mana

Edit: The time you tested the 4 SSG was also long before Delver and friends

[Asthereal]

There as the talk about running one Guide instead of the 13th land (with one more free SB slot as a result), which is not compareable with a build including SSG as a backbone for fast mana

True. But I'd be interested nonetheless.
I am not saying we should run 4x Guide.
Just 1-2 would be an interesting starting point.

[Lemnear]

True. But I'd be interested nonetheless.
I am not saying we should run 4x Guide.
Just 1-2 would be an interesting starting point.

I just prefer flipping 2-4 extra cards, possibly including Lands, Petals, Moxen and Rituals, instead of any SSG. I guess you get my POV here

[Asthereal]

I just prefer flipping 2-4 extra cards, possibly including Petals, Moxen and Rituals, instead of any SSG. I guess you get my POV here

It can be better, absolutely. I have encountered situations both ways. Hard to tell what's best in the long run if we don't have statistics to back it up.

EDIT: Just saw your edit from before. I never "tested" 4x Guide. It was in my early days as a combo player. I had just started playing Magic again. I ran 4x Guide because TES just ran 4x Guide. Ad Nauseam had just been released (2008), and I ran an excessive three copies at first. Lots of turn one kills though. I opened the big tourney with four turn one kills in a row.
Don't let the meta from back then fool you into thinking the hate was weak, though. I had to fight against decks like Countertop Thresh, Eva Green, the original Team America (with Sinkhole, Stifle, Thoughtseize), Dreadstill Countertop and It's The Fear. Without Probes, of course. Also, Staxx was a big thing back then. Pretty awesome meta, if I think back to it...

[Bryant Cook]

4 Gemstone Mine
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Tropical Island

3 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Rite of Flame
4 Dark Ritual

3 Infernal Tutor
4 Burning Wish
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Duress
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Ad Nauseam

Sideboard
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Xantid Swarm
2 Pyroblast // Pithing Needle
1 Void Snare
1 Thoughtseize
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames

This is what I'll be testing again soon. My only issue is having five cards to side in and out versus Sneak Show/Miracles will be tough, what do we side out at that point? -1 Empty the Warrens, -1 Chrome Mox, -3 Ponder?

Also, I've considered this:

3 Abrupt Decay
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Pithing Needle
2 Thoughtseize
1 Void Snare
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames

One more Thoughtseize allows a sideboardable discard spell over the third Xantid if I find myself liking Pithing Needle.

[wonderPreaux]

Doesn't 3 Decay and 2 Pithing seem like a bit too much for Miracles? Those Ponders can be pretty valuable, wouldn't wanna be siding out so many, I think the 2/2/2 split of decay/xantid/needle would probably be best.

[Asthereal]

Call me crazy, but I am seriously thinking about trying Taiga instead of Tropical. Taiga + Sea casts any spell in the list, so I never have to choose between fetching a combo colour or a sideboard colour. The deck only plays 8 cards that require blue mana anyway (apart from the sideboard Void Snare, of course).

What do you guys think? Terrible idea?

[wonderPreaux]

Call me crazy, but I am seriously thinking about trying Taiga instead of Tropical. Taiga + Sea casts any spell in the list, so I never have to choose between fetching a combo colour or a sideboard colour. The deck only plays 8 cards that require blue mana anyway (apart from the sideboard Void Snare, of course).

What do you guys think? Terrible idea?

The 8 spells Trop does cast are the important set-up spells you often want turn 1. It's the same reason why Badlands never made it here either, you look at an opener of Taiga/Badlands + Brainstorm/Ponder and then hate your life.

[Asthereal]

The 8 spells Trop does cast are the important set-up spells you often want turn 1. It's the same reason why Badlands never made it here either, you look at an opener of Taiga/Badlands + Brainstorm/Ponder and then hate your life.

True, but it's the 13th land anyway. If we have no issues on 12 lands, we shouldn't have issues on 12 u-lands + Taiga. At least, that's my thought. I feel I often have more issues in getting 3 lands, than in getting one that makes blue.

Anyway, I'm just putting it out there. Do with it what you will.

[Bryant Cook]

Doesn't 3 Decay and 2 Pithing seem like a bit too much for Miracles? Those Ponders can be pretty valuable, wouldn't wanna be siding out so many, I think the 2/2/2 split of decay/xantid/needle would probably be best.

Miracles is incredibly popular and I've been running into a lot of Chalice of the Void as of late. I'm not playing less than three copies of Decay.

[wonderPreaux]

True, but it's the 13th land anyway. If we have no issues on 12 lands, we shouldn't have issues on 12 u-lands + Taiga. At least, that's my thought. I feel I often have more issues in getting 3 lands, than in getting one that makes blue.

Anyway, I'm just putting it out there. Do with it what you will.

Right, I see what you mean with the 12 U-lands, though the 13th land is supposed to help stability too, not just cast SB cards. if it doesn't play the cards we use to develop then it could cause as many problems as it might fix. Also, with 12 or 13 we just aren't playing a lot of lands either way, and if I open a 1-lander, and it's Taiga, I can't cantrip into another land. One good thing about Taiga, though, is it's still totally compatible with the fetchland suite of tarn/misty.

[Lemnear]

Call me crazy, but I am seriously thinking about trying Taiga instead of Tropical. Taiga + Sea casts any spell in the list, so I never have to choose between fetching a combo colour or a sideboard colour. The deck only plays 8 cards that require blue mana anyway (apart from the sideboard Void Snare, of course).

What do you guys think? Terrible idea?

On the other side you also have only 8 red spells. I apprechiate the idea of making 4 colors playable off 2 lands, but I have bad memories about that approach in bUrg Delver. :/

[Bryant Cook]

Doesn't 3 Decay and 2 Pithing seem like a bit too much for Miracles? Those Ponders can be pretty valuable, wouldn't wanna be siding out so many, I think the 2/2/2 split of decay/xantid/needle would probably be best.

2 Abrupt Decay
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Pithing Needle // Pyroblast
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Void Snare
1 Thoughtseize
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames

You may've been right, I don't hate this.

[Lemnear]

In regards to SB, I can see a 2/2/2 split between Decay/Needle/Xantid to have a total of 4 slots to board for Miracles/Griselbrand.dec (we did a similar split with Pyroblast as well).

Doesn't 3 Decay and 2 Pithing seem like a bit too much for Miracles? Those Ponders can be pretty valuable, wouldn't wanna be siding out so many, I think the 2/2/2 split of decay/xantid/needle would probably be best.

2 Abrupt Decay
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Pithing Needle // Pyroblast
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Void Snare
1 Thoughtseize
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames

You may've been right, I don't hate this.

;D

[d0nkey]

2 Abrupt Decay
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Pithing Needle // Pyroblast
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Void Snare
1 Thoughtseize
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames

You may've been right, I don't hate this.

With Void Snare as a wish target, what are you bringing in the CoV for?