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The question is, if you rather have a confidant drawing random cards or additional disruption/Protection in the same SB slots. You'll likely want dark confidant to draw you into disruption and gas (Gas you may invested in confidant before). Therefore you can play confidant for the grind against Control (unlikely to work) or add more disruption/protection without passing the Turn for confidant to reveal exactly those duress/silence/therapy.
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Assuming we had space for bob in the board could you justify bringing in 3-4 additional cards against miracles? I'm a huge fan of the card but it doesn't belong in TES
Edit: even though slower decks like miracles don't have direct pressure or a clock most of the time that doesn't mean we don't want to just kill them. Every turn we wait thhey get more resources to fight us with.
I have a scenario for you guys that I have run across a few times. I'm not sure which is the correct way to go.
You are playing against a blue deck (RUG, Miracles, Esperblade). You have a good hand on the play which cannot win on the first turn and contains probe and ponder.
Example hand would be - probe, ponder, gemstone, scalding tarn, rite of flame, rite of flame, dark ritual
Now, do you probe first and see what you have to fight through or do you ponder saving the probe for the combo turn?
If I 100% knew the deck I was playing against...
I'd Gemstone Mine < Ponder vs. Esperblade (if they ran discard) or BUG
I'd play Tarn and say go against the others.
Swim, Bike, Run, MTG
You would play for the long game against Miracles as well?
Edit - could you explain what your thinking a bit more? For example if you probed rug you could check for stifle. By sitting there against Miracles you may let them slam a cb while they have no other protection. What pros and cons are you weighing here?
Let me answer your question with a question. What are you hoping to see in your top 3 cards if you ponder on t1, even if you know 100% what you're sitting down from?
You obviously need an action spell. It's also highly possible that you need a protection spell.
Let's say you ponder t1 and hit duress, land, land. You can't reasonably keep those, so you shuffle. Now you've spent your ponder, and you're not just on the back foot, you're losing, badly. You now need to rattle 2 out of your next 3 draws off to have a chance and you have no way to manipulate that. What if you get the burning wish/IT, but the protection you find is silence?
Also, if they have CB, they can't slam it on their turn 1.
Basically, I'm saying you aren't winning on turn 2 barring a magic christmas land ponder... so digging one deeper (and being able to draw 1-2 cards then shuffle away the unwanted) is worth the turn TO ME.
I hardly ever burn a probe on t1 if all it's doing is cantripping for me. Seeing their hand is useful, but you don't have much to do about it. You see stifle, break fetchland and get volcanic island, then what? Go back to ponder (now making it a "ponderlock" if you decide to keep 1-2 mediorce cards), or hope wasteland isn't in your future?
I'm not saying my way is always right (all this comes from somebody who plays way more Doomsday than TES the last year or so, which is certainly a different beast altogether). I'm just saying that you are already basically putting your eggs in the ponder basket when you keep that hand. You need to make that ponder as good as you possibly can.
Swim, Bike, Run, MTG
actually the more I look at it the more I think I might go all in against CB/Top.
On the reasoning that I don't think your hand can feasibly beat any disruption spell other than Counterbalance.
Swim, Bike, Run, MTG
I'm not sold that Bob is good in this deck either, but I think it's valuable to explore the scenarios in which he might be good. I know people have tried him in the past, and he's always been very impressive out of ANT against control.
I think that if the Force of Will combo players were to switch to Miracles or Esperblade, switching the 2-of Xantid Swarm to 2 Dark Confidant would help those matchups greatly. Based on experience from myself and friends on both sides of the table, Dark Confidant is pretty much game over if he sticks for a turn or two, and those decks can't afford to both leave in wraths and Swords against TES. If you draw Bob, great, he can take over a game on his own. If not, great, you won quickly. It's kinda like we get to play 2 more huge bomb spells without playing 2 more 4-5 drops.
Our gameplan against Miracles is not exclusively to win quickly. The matchup description on the primer puts it pretty well - we go off when we're ready. With Bob in play, we gain resources faster and better than they do.
Most often I would probe on turn 1, but most often I don't know what I'm playing against. Probe will tell me if I need to dig for protection, play around Stifle, etc.Originally Posted by testing32
Ponder's tougher. If they have Wasteland and seem likely to play it, I'll lead on a fetch and Ponder t2. If not, I want to keep my velocity up - it might take 2 or more cantrips to find the tutor alone. I never want to be mana-constrained going forwards. Ponder could very easily reveal protection or a tutor and another cantrip, and I want to be able to use a cantrip and something else turn 2.
Once I've found a tutor I'll prioritize protection, but before that I'll always shuffle off Ponder.
I see what you're saying, but you're not counting your chance to hit more cantrips. Doomsday is a very different animal from TES - we're almost always trying to maximize velocity instead of focusing on land drops and setting up a doomsday engine (heh). You're looking for usually 6 mana and essentially 2 spells, whereas we're looking for either 5 spells and 6 mana or a few spells and 7+ mana. It's pretty much never correct to Brainstorm t1 with DDFT, but not unreasonable at all for TES.Originally Posted by leegoo
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Phaz -
I agree with what you're saying, but the times you *would* Brainstorm T1 with TES are the times when it was likely to win you the game. (That is, your hand is very close to killing, but missing something) Otherwise, it is *generally wrong to bs t1. All I'm saying is that this ponder is not going to win you the game on t1 regardless of what you hit. It's also unlikely it's going to win you the game t2 against the listed decks. (RUG in this case) To win on t2 say, you need your opponent to actually be holding absolutely nothing to interact (even daze will stop you currently) AND for your ponder to not be a miss.
You can GP and be sure, but considering you already know what you're facing, you can already be reasonably sure that rug has some way to interact in the first two turns if your opponent is competent and kept 7. I don't want to probe before I ponder, in case I need to draw 2 of the cards and then shuffle the 3rd away with the fetch.
I know there are times to ponder t1, probe t1, or both t1... but I don't think that grip / matchup is one of them. (I also don't think that 7 is something I would keep against U/W or RUG for what it's worth)
This is only pertaining to RUG. I am fine with your line vs. U/W (as stated in my last post, you can only really beat CB anyways and you almost certainly can't win g1 after it hits play) and vs. BUG in my first post.
Swim, Bike, Run, MTG
I've done a lot of T1 Brainstorms off a Petal or a Mox to find a Land (and Cover my Tutor on Top of my Deck), just saying.
You can even read that in my latest report. A generalisation of T1 Brainstorms in TES isn't possible
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Lem -
We all understand that there are situations it is right. It's 100% off topic pertaining to this.
it was a good report btw.
Swim, Bike, Run, MTG
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I played Bob in the deck when Mental Misstep was legal/first printed and he was amazing. First turn ritual, duress, bob was so good. I also had a sb plan of a few smaller storm turns, something like a few rituals and a small tendrils/empty versus an outright kill, and bob was great at fueling these and also finishing the game.Are you sure that's true? We don't try to be balls-to-the-walls fast in certain matchups like UW Miracles. If the meta were filled with control, I think Bob would be excellent. However in the current meta, our board space is super tight and we need other slots more.
Went 3-0-1 and lost in top 8...
Round 1 vs BG Pox
I probably punted G1 and lose. G2 he has liliana on board and I have led, chrome mox and lotus petal. I draw burning wish and wish for pif. A few turns later I draw a dark ritual and do my thing. At one point I can bring wish and into goblins but im scared of pulse so I cast ponder and roll the dice. Finds an LED and that gets me my mana to cast diminishing returns. Returns finds the good stuff.
G3 I win on T2 with goblins. He didnt find pulse.
Round 2 RUG Delver
G1 he stifles one of my LEDs after a burning wish and it doesn't get there because im at 1.
G2 We both realize you can't stifle LED. I let it go. Silence resolves and he dies.
G3 he keeps a sketchy hand But I see he has a stifle. I cast ad nauseam knowing I can't go for goblins. I then go to tendrils him and he scoops. Right after he scoops we both realize the stifle. I forgot about it!
Round 3 Jund
Not much to say. G2 he surgicals my burning wish after I crack my leds so I chain some infernals and make dudes.
Draw into top 8.
Top 8 UW Delver
He does the tempo thing. He draws really really well and I cant win. I almost won game 2 but empty for 8 came a turn to late
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I played against something with a J... Ive seen him before and I let him borrow a Volcanic... Damn His name always escapes me.
Yeah I forgot that you cant stifle a mana source... That was awkward halfway through game 2 when we realized it. Again Justice in game 3 though!
Also Props and Slops
Props:
-Past in Flames. Great against discard! I finally learned how to use it!
-Bryant Cook for playing that insane game against UWR Tempo. That game taught me to be patient.
-The top of my deck. Thanks for the sick rips!
Slops:
-Not knowing how Lions Eye Diamond works. Goddammit.
-Chipotle for not having any corn when I went to get a damn burrito!
-My Top 8 Opponent for not splitting with me. Also beating me with my stifles I let him borrow. Dick
That BG matchup reads like mine against the GB Nic Fit in my latest Report. Wishing for PIF to turn it active later is key unless they pair the discard with Shaman, Pox and Nic Fit thankfully don't do.
In my experience a 3-Swing-EtW is always too late. Too much Time to find and pop Explosives/Deed/Pulse even if you are on the play and drop them Turn 1. I must be really under pressure to EtW for less than 12 gobbos against anything with creatures so I still have a 2-Swing-kill Even if they drop a creature like DRS
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