So Chalice seems, the solution... no love for Sphere/Thorn? About Chalice set to 1, i'm really a bit concerned about how many spells i'm playing it does cripple too, that's why i was thinking about something different.
Thorn is good but has the same drawback as Chalice @ 1: 2 mana could be too slow.
Thorn was a solution to Storm in Elves too before facing the issue of being too slow against combo. Elves chopped the resistors in favor of more discard ... dunno if that solution is manageable/desired here. Chalice is also amazing vs. Elves, Delver and Burn ... just saying.
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12 post plays nearly 20 cards CC 1. I think chalice 1 isnt the best choice. maybe u can slow the storm player, but u will be slowed more (if u havent the perfect hand), and he will find wish into abrupt decay = gg
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I love how Lenmear is partaking in this smear campaign against my TES skills and ANT skills, when the two best pilots to each of those archtypes are in New England, and I have been playing against them for years. You clearly have been playing against novice Eldrazi players, but forget that I have been playing against Bryant Cook for years. I welcome extensive playtesting with any pilot you have for me since you consider my ability to pilot either ANT or TES, decks I consider easily 3 or 4 times easier to pilot than Turbo Eldrazi, as insufficient.
He's just trolling. Suggesting cards that come down turn 2, which could be good, but not on their own. I would suggest a mix between Thorn, Force, and Flusterstorm.
How has Swan Song been for you?
Hypergeometric probability of at least one swarm of the 3 is 1-((3 choose 0)*(57 choose 10)/(60 choose 10)) = 42.7%. This is without cantripping and only using the draw step.
Let's put the matchup at 65% in your favor postboard and say 20-80 preboard (is that too harsh?). Thus you win if and only if
= 51.35% match win percentage against TES (or whatever storm matchup you proposed those figures). I however submit the postboard matchup isn't that far in your favor.
G1 L, G2-3 W .8 *.65*.65 33.8% G1 W, G2 W .2 *.65 13% G1 W, G2 L, G3 W .2 *.35*.65 4.55%
If we instead drop your postboard matchup to 55-45 in your favor, we get:
= 40.15% win percentage assuming 80-20 in TES favor preboard and 55-45 in Eldrazi's postboard.
G1 L, G2-3 W .8 *.55*.55 24.2% G1 W, G2 W .2 *.55 11% G1 W, G2 L, G3 W .2 *.45*.55 4.95%
Do you really think your sideboard tech, which honestly is little different between what other decks in the format hope to do against storm, swings the matchup from say 20-80 preboard to 65-35 post? How is storm successful if sideboards like yours would change the matchup a full 45%?
Matt Bevenour in real life
Interresting ... Chalice @ 0 (against the acceleration; especially post AN) is a turn 2 play for you and not good on their own if played @ 1 against Elves, Burn and ANT?
I can get behind your suggested SB as Thorn (doesn't count as tirn-2-play for you?) also blocks OmniTell, but my main concern was the blue-count to support FoW and the dilemma that the Locus lands interact poorly with (several) counterspells while needing double green for Titan as well. I felt, colorless ways to block TES would more fitting aside from Swarm/Silence laughing about Flusterstorm, Swan Song and MBT.
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When siding up to 14 cards, changing ~ 42% of the non land cards in the deck to hate, yes I believe a matchup can see a full 45% swing. However, I don't really buy any of this statistics stuff the assumptions are too large - especially for a showdown between two corner decks of the format. That being said, TES is obviously a rough matchup, which warrants such a heavy sideboard plan.
One thing I don't agree with is this assumption that the post player's plan is to keep a hand with two blue cards, fold their arms and emerge turn six unscathed. There is definitely pressure and interaction. Without any pressure, yes TES will shred through any wall of counter spells, as designed.
Compare to RUG:
RUG has to keep a hand with disruption, and likely hold back threats to keep mana available to use them. Flipped Delvers, Threshed Mongeese, and 4/5 goyfs only really end up becoming game ending threats turns 3-6. In addtion, their tax based counters aren't like the hard-counters used by post.
Post similarly needs to keep a hand with disruption. But at that same window of turn 3-6, they are threatening to end the game on the spot (yes, I'm aware of the grapeshots for 50, but often not an option). S&T or posts into early titan. They arrive at this state in a similar way to RUG, just countering stuff to buy the time.
It feels similar to me.
So my board this weekend (I did beat TES in the weekly), which I feel is well rounded for a lot of what troubles post:
4 Force of Will
4 Fluster Storm
2 Swan Song
2 Glen Elendra
1 Chalice of the Void
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Glacial Chasm
[2x MD Trinkets]
With these cards sided in here are some of my paths:
Against BUGs: Force of Will bugs, Repeal Bugs, Race Bugs (they're nasty, but can be slow and take a card)
Silence: Force, Fluster, Swan, Mayyybe Glen Elendra if we get there.
Discard: I often have a counter to use on therapys, Defensive brainstorm, hide spells under top with bought time from other counters
ANY business spell, Including cantrips: I'll counter it, if available. The density of disruption usually allows a turn 1 counter and a turn 2 counter, with hope that a draw and a brainstorm/top gets more or arrives at pressure.
Goblins: TES shouldn't choose the goblins path.
Rituals, Accelerants: Unless its an obvious, rare, blow out counter, I will disregard them and focus on business since post counters aren't tax based (that is VERY relevant). Maybe bog the Rites>Flames path.
Turn three play from purchased time: S&T Titan/maybe eldrazi > GP's or Trinket Chalice @ 0.
Turn four play (which usually has 5 mana) from purchased time: S&T stuff, Glen Elendra, or Trinket Chalice 1
Chalice: As early as I can. 0, 1, or 2.
...so this creates quite the dance between TES and POST. The often neglected angle of this matchup is that TES is also very low on time. Do I feel on my heels when playing TES? Yes. Do I feel doomed? No. In fact I don't think I feel any different than I do with any other deck against TES, I just want to stop some shit and get to turn 3 where my deck better start doing something.
My chalice experience is positive with the trinket > chalice, or the lucky draw. I'd maybe take that board -1 swan song for +1 chalice if there were more TES. But right now I feel that post is weaker to Omni, and strong against the more popular ANT.
Thorn to me is just a bit too slow. Its an easy discard target, lowers the blue count, and several slots are needed because it isn't tutorable or castable off a library manipulation like said chalice.
Also, the cage is good with a very similar plan as above except the trinket destination is cage. And counters are to protect crops. Anyone else been having trouble with reanimator?
I've been a huge fan of spaghetti monsters since I first came across this archetype. I've played it quite a bit in different incarnations, and am hoping to make our eldrazi overlords proud at the GP. I have streamed Legacy Daily events and made some videos on youtube, although when Legacy semi-died on MTGO it became difficult to keep the videos up. Legacy is on the upswing on Magic Online and I will be streaming as many evening EST events as I can over the next few weeks before the GP. I would gladly welcome your thoughts and input on both specific deck selection and gameplay, so come and watch (archives will be on youtube as well).
I will be playing tonight at 9:30PM EST, with something similar to this decklist:
4 Cloudpost
4 Glimmerpost
3 Vesuva
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Polluted Delta
1 Island
4 Tropical Island
1 Bojuka Bog
1 Karakas
1 Eye of Ugin
1 Glacial Chasm
4 Crop Rotation
4 Brainstorm
4 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Expedition Map
2 Candelabra of Tawnos
2 Show and Tell
2 Trinket Mage
1 Venser, Shaper Savant
1 Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
1 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Repeal
Sideboard:
1 The Tabernacle of Pendrel Vale
2 Spell Pierce
1 Swan Song
2 Elephant Grass
1 Last Word
3 Mindbreak Trap
1 Glen Elendra Archmage
4 Force of Will
Some odd choices of pet cards I want to try, plus I've been cheap and haven't picked up Flusterstorms on Modo. If I am convinced I need them I will get them though, no card is out of the question at this point.
Hope to catch some of you online!
zahori on MTGO
@modozahori
twitch.tv/modozahori
Check out my Youtube channel featuring Magic Online Legacy Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/modozahori
Follow me on Twitter@modozahori
My only assumptions was those are the matchup percentages and that each game was independent of another. I am in no way saying there isn't room for both parties to outplay each other, just looking to show how badly nearly autolosing game 1 is for your overall win chances for the match.
You can't challenge assumptions I didn't make.
Matt Bevenour in real life
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I have 3 matches against Bryant Cook in the last three years. one win, two losses, with one loss being a Legacy Challenge in New Jersey, when I was not playing a serious version and "testing" for the next day, and one of those losses was before Flusterstorm was a card, nevermind with this setup. To QED this as proof is laughable at the best. Keep trying though troll maximus.
Yeah, it's quite funny how you stumble about your own words and bring up a lame justification like that. It would be a start if you'd acknowledge that variance is a factor in that matchup and storm isn't an auto-win.
Nice, that you bring up Flusterstorm again, which I asked about a page or so ago in regards to why you think that Flusterstorm, Swan Song, Spell Pierce and Mindbreak Trap should affect Xantid Swarm in a way that completely flips the matchup over to a "curb-stomp" and is at least halfways possible. I'm still waiting for an answer that targets the topic rather than me
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Spell Pierce hasn't been in the deck for years, and I caution Europeans who often run it as being weak against specific matchups. The current build doesn't run mindbreak. So again your information is highly flawed. We will pretend that you are using the current build's sideboard layout, and in that I state that you need a 2x Xantid swarm against x4 Repeal and x4 FoW before a Glen Elendra or venser lock hits the battlefield. If you are seriously implying that you have favorable odds of this, then we should stop this discussion now, because you are even more enamored with lack of statistics than I currently envision.
If you address combo by ~15 sideboard cards, you sometimes get there. It's a lot better than giving up, because the deck is great against anything fair. In theory it might look harsh but empirical reality check shows that TES is winnable so no need to be too strict about it either way. I don't approve the idea of always claiming bad pilots when TES loses. By that logic everybody sucks big time all the time as people actually lose in this game of magic. It is only dodging the fact that when the sideboard plan works, TES has hard time winning without excessive protection. The same way as Turbo eldrazi likely can't win without seeing excessive amount of hate. All the protection spells in hand reduce the possibility of combo and eldrazi player shouldn't keep less than two hate cards. Of course, hands with protection + first turn kill exist. So do hands with free counters, swarm-removal and resistors.
What should be obvious to everybody now, is that bees are really good in this matchup. There are not may outs to that, especially if you happened to side out your Repeals, which you shouldn't at least if you play Force of Will. First turn swarm is really, really bad news BUT if you don't accomplish anything behind it during the first, say, two turns, it will get removed and you will be threatened by something big or more permanent hate.
Some of my friends sell records,
some of my friends sell drugs.
I see the option to repeal the Bug, but don't see the issue to simply replay it unless you FoW it immediately after the bounce, which is all the Xantids job: baiting or negating counters.
4cc SB one-offs are a bit unrelyable as is having Karakas + 2 blue sources for Venser paired with FoW and/or Repeal (asuming TES doesn't find another Swarm, Silence, Duress, Therapy for the next turns), don't you think? These are exactly the rare cornercases which are a joke to present as statistical evidence.
Let's stop this here Jerry. It was not my intention to turn this thread into a battlefield.
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Yeah I agree that those end games are nothing to rely on, without permission leading up to it but they are at least relevant. I feel better playing the interaction game and working towards a SnT, Glen, venser, Mage or permanent in hand over having a Goyf or something. Even as lame as the repeal bounce is, it is at least some borrowed time..which then the density hopefully allows the game to continu. I approach TES with a just-get-to-next turn attitude, because we also have a combo finish..
I want to talk about reanimator, you know a deck with more than 2% of the meta. I've found crops to be a little fragile without very good crop and counter spell hands, so in similar fashion to Chalice I added a cage as my trinket 'destination' but cannot decide if it should be a crypt for speed concerns..
Seems like a cockatrice grudge match is in order.
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