Let's speculate! How low do you think goyfs will drop

[DragoFireheart]

Another thing is that Goyf is continuing to see less play with the rise of scavenging ooze. At least on a Legacy level.

- Modern is probably the driving force behind it's value atm.

[Megadeus]

Thats kind of what I assumed. Hopefully they let scavenging ooze be a modern card!

[Dark Ritual]

- I do love the card.

And we'll see in the summer next year who is right. Alternate art does affect prices of cards so it isn't that much of a stretch.

Okay so the alternate art FTV maze of ith is worth more than the dark version? Oh wait, they're the same price with the dark version edging out the FTV version because the dark version is tourney legal due to it not warping like crazy.

The new art for goyf isn't a spectacular piece of art by any stretch of the imagination. It's mediocre at best in my eyes, the only cool part about it is that deer in the picture.

The old goyfs will be worth more, foreign goyfs will retain a lot of value due to the pimp factor depending on language. I see the new goyf going for under 50 bucks a pop and the old one for about 60-70. It all depends on the total print run of the set though and how many goyfs are introduced into the market.

[lavafrogg]

Shouldn't we be talking about how good this is for Legacy? There has to be a post about that somewhere....(goes looking)

[UnsungHero]

Okay so the alternate art FTV maze of ith is worth more than the dark version? Oh wait, they're the same price with the dark version edging out the FTV version because the dark version is tourney legal due to it not warping like crazy.

The new art for goyf isn't a spectacular piece of art by any stretch of the imagination. It's mediocre at best in my eyes, the only cool part about it is that deer in the picture.

The old goyfs will be worth more, foreign goyfs will retain a lot of value due to the pimp factor depending on language. I see the new goyf going for under 50 bucks a pop and the old one for about 60-70. It all depends on the total print run of the set though and how many goyfs are introduced into the market.

I agree with this. Mox Diamond (FTV/Stronghold) are the same price as well. Also original Ravnica shocklands are worth more then the RtR ones. Orginal cards most of the time are always worth more then their new counterparts. Its not really even about artwork. Old cards always seem to be worth a little more.
I feel that these staples that are being printed is good for legacy. However, due to these staples being more "common" we could see other staples that were not printed hiking up. Everything is really up in the air right now, Will legacy die? Will Modern be a flop? Should I collect staples for x or y format, or get the ones for both? Should I pick up ban-list cards for modern for fear that they may become unbanned and see a price hike? Questions like this just suck for people who want to get into and enjoy eternal formats.

[JACO]

After Modern Masters 1 is released I think you can expect Future Sight copies of Tarmogoyf to be averaging less than $50 each on eBay, and the Modern Masters one will be less than $35. The value on MTGO of both version will be totally destroyed.

[Jamaican Zombie Legend]

Very little change. Modern demand has spiked hard due to the PTQ season, prices of Magic cards tend to be very sticky, and Modern Masters is a limited print run. Unless Wizards really goes all out with Modern Masters and loads the rare/uncommon slots full of value, or makes the Mythic list absolutely insane, all of the set's value will be concentrated in a few Mythics, leading it to be a $7 lottery ticket to get a Goyf/Clique/Confidant, and hardly lowering the prices.

Also, that assumes this is sold widely at MSRP. But with a limited print run distributed only to certain stores based on affiliation, it wouldn't be unlikely to see packs of this go for more than MSRP. It may be like an FTV in that Wizards wants this product to be a "thank you" to brick and mortar stores, to give them a little extra profit.

[KobeBryan]

Very little change. Modern demand has spiked hard due to the PTQ season, prices of Magic cards tend to be very sticky, and Modern Masters is a limited print run. Unless Wizards really goes all out with Modern Masters and loads the rare/uncommon slots full of value, or makes the Mythic list absolutely insane, all of the set's value will be concentrated in a few Mythics, leading it to be a $7 lottery ticket to get a Goyf/Clique/Confidant, and hardly lowering the prices.

Also, that assumes this is sold widely at MSRP. But with a limited print run distributed only to certain stores based on affiliation, it wouldn't be unlikely to see packs of this go for more than MSRP. It may be like an FTV in that Wizards wants this product to be a "thank you" to brick and mortar stores, to give them a little extra profit.

I don't think the print run will be THAT limited where it is a 'thank you' to stores. Wizards did mention that it is possible to draft this set. Its not easy to draft a set if stores don't sell at MSRP.

[SpikeyMikey]

24 packs in a box. Mythics every 8 packs. 3 Mythics per box, average. 5 boxes per Tarmogoyf, average. That's not going to add much to the supply. I think prices will initially drop to around $50, SCG price and creep back up to $70 within a year. $10-$20 less for eBay.

[jtos84]

I think tarmogoyf is a 160 to 200 dollar card. In my eyes the only thing that would lower the price is its reprinting (which I don't think should happen). I asked some people what they thought it was worth at eighty dollars, and they said probably 60 to 80. I told them what I thought, and they disagreed. Now its at 100. I think the value of this card is that it is the most efficient two drop you could hope for. It is playable in vintage, extremely valuable in legacy, and I am sure it very good in modern. I don't play modern so I am unsure there. I think its value in vintage and legacy alone make worth 120.

[MirrorMask]

And.. you wrong. It doesn't see that much play to be so expensive. Furthermore, no card, ever, is worth more than the dualands. Of course actual price doesn't always reflects this but goyf is NOTHING more than a silly creature with good mana cost. Even a 0/1 can and will block it. It has zero abilities (other than getting big) and right now it doesn't help than much when we have delver, ooze, stoneforge and a ton of other more efficient critters. For me, what goyf is really worth is only 20-30$. The 100$ that is sold right now has to do ONLY with limited supply that cannot satisfy the players of 2 formats.
As for the price range after the reprint I believe 30-50$ (at least for the new one) depending on the amount printed.

[Esper3k]

Furthermore, no card, ever, is worth more than the dualands.

Moat, Tabernacle, Candelabra, Power 9 would like to have a word with you...

That being said, I think Future Sight nonfoil Tarmogoyfs will drop slightly with the increased number of Tarmogoyfs on the market with the Modern Masters one being maybe $10-15 less than the FS ones.

[bruizar]

Moat, Tabernacle, Candelabra, Power 9 would like to have a word with you...

That being said, I think Future Sight nonfoil Tarmogoyfs will drop slightly with the increased number of Tarmogoyfs on the market with the Modern Masters one being maybe $10-15 less than the FS ones.

Except for alpha Black Lotus, there is not much that outvalues alpha Underground Sea.

[Lord Seth]

I think tarmogoyf is a 160 to 200 dollar card.

How?

Something's worth is, and always has been, primarily the result of supply and demand. How do you somehow come to the weird conclusion that Tarmogoyf is worth more than it is? Something is worth how much people will pay for it, and people are not paying that much for Tarmogoyfs.

In my eyes the only thing that would lower the price is its reprinting (which I don't think should happen).

Er...why?

I asked some people what they thought it was worth at eighty dollars, and they said probably 60 to 80. I told them what I thought, and they disagreed. Now its at 100.

So...what? When it was at eighty dollars, they correctly said it was worth around 60 to 80. Now it's increased and is at 100. How does that prove them wrong? Black Lotus being worth $1,000+ now doesn't mean it wasn't worth $300 in the past, and likewise it doesn't mean at that point it was somehow worth $1,000.

I think the value of this card is that it is the most efficient two drop you could hope for. It is playable in vintage, extremely valuable in legacy, and I am sure it very good in modern. I don't play modern so I am unsure there. I think its value in vintage and legacy alone make worth 120.

Well then you're wrong, because objectively speaking the card is not worth that much. Even the most overpriced sellers I know of are selling it for less than that.

Something isn't worth $120 just because you think it should be (especially when the reasons you provide don't make sense). It'd be worth $120 if the supply/demand is enough to make it that high. It isn't, so it isn't worth that much, and it certainly isn't worth $160+.

[ramanujan]

I don't think the price will change significantly. Yes, I know that I am in the minority here. I think that MM will drive up demand for the card through interest in the format. People have been clamoring for years for reprints and finally, they are getting them. I am not convinced that people wanting reprints were making the right request. I think most of them were asking "Please give me a way to buy the cards I want cheaply". They made a pretty silly assumption that reprints would satisfy that need so they asked for reprints. Wizards has done several things to ensure that the value of the card remains relatively intact.

1. The price for booster packs is substantially increased (without any real justification in my mind), making it far easier to justify a really high price for the most sought after cards from the set. The fact that there are fewer boosters per box is not of any consequence.

2. The rarity of the card was moved to mythic, resulting in a much smaller probability of openning the card than if it were just a rare.

3. The print run has been stated, time and time again, to be small. People who want these sought after singles have been relatively ignorant of this fact, often saying that it can be drafted or that there will be a GP. Beta has been drafted and a single GP is a small impact compared to an entire print run, even a small one.

4. Modern is being pushed really heavily by Wizards. All of this support will increase demand. Wizards has played thier hand, and it reads "Play Modern". They have a vested interest in designing great cards for this format with every product. The modern format will get better with time as the designers get better and better at designing cards with it in mind.

I am pretty convinced that MM will get a largely positive reception. The vast majority of the cohort that plays this game (late teens to late twenties men) don't manage thier money all that well. They don't think about how many dollars it costs to buy the packs to open tarmogoyf. I do not mean to steriotype, it is more that the averages seem this way. In my many years playing this game, I see new faces each year throwing away thousands of dollars (usually student loan money) on standard staples that give about the same investment return as calendars.

Enough of my yapping. I think that the price will not move more than 10% (assuming a three month delay), and I will not give a direction.

[Esper3k]

Except for alpha Black Lotus, there is not much that outvalues alpha Underground Sea.

Sure, but there are plenty of other cards that are more expensive than the majority of the other duals much less the UNL/REV ones.

For example, all of your UNL Moxen, Time Walk, Ancestral Recall, Lotus are going to singificantly outvalue all of your UNL dual lands.

[bruizar]

How?

Something's worth is, and always has been, primarily the result of supply and demand. How do you somehow come to the weird conclusion that Tarmogoyf is worth more than it is? Something is worth how much people will pay for it, and people are not paying that much for Tarmogoyfs.

Yes but no. As a speculator, I can tell you that market values aren't always in sync with the actual supply/demand. Market values catch up slower than supply/demand, and supply/demand catch up slower than spoilers/hidden gems. If you're faster than the market, you can make some very good trades/buys.



It's also extremely silly to state that something is worth its current price. Magic exists for around 18 years. Removing the time factor is just plain silly when its a big reason why many of the old cards are as expensive as they are. Venture capitalists take the time factor into consideration through discounted cash flow. The same principle can and should be applied to magic speculation, otherwise you will simply make sucky deal after sucky deal.

[KobeBryan]

I think tarmogoyf is a 160 to 200 dollar card. In my eyes the only thing that would lower the price is its reprinting (which I don't think should happen). I asked some people what they thought it was worth at eighty dollars, and they said probably 60 to 80. I told them what I thought, and they disagreed. Now its at 100. I think the value of this card is that it is the most efficient two drop you could hope for. It is playable in vintage, extremely valuable in legacy, and I am sure it very good in modern. I don't play modern so I am unsure there. I think its value in vintage and legacy alone make worth 120.

How is tarmogoyf a 200 dollar card?

Supply and demand dictates the market value of this card and the market right now has him sitting about about 80 dollars.

Where did you come up with the conclusion that it is 200 dollars?

Also, modern masters is going to reprint the card.

A reprint is a reprint is a reprint. Price will drop.

[bruizar]

How is tarmogoyf a 200 dollar card?

Supply and demand dictates the market value of this card and the market right now has him sitting about about 80 dollars.

Where did you come up with the conclusion that it is 200 dollars?

Also, modern masters is going to reprint the card.

A reprint is a reprint is a reprint. Price will drop.

If supply increases by 200% but demand is increased by 1000%, the price will not drop, reprint or not.

[bruizar]

One aspect of investing in Magic has been speculation on the effects of reprints. Increasing the supply of a card should lower the price. For some cards, there is an argument to be made that reprints can be neutral or even positive for certain cards as a reprint allows the card to be rotated into new formats and makes players aware of the power of cards: Mana Leak from Stronghold, a neglected counterspell, got a big boost when it was reprinted and became legal in Standard. However, this argument is more about tournament legality than reprints per se. Because the coëfficient for ln[Reprints] is insignificant in Table 4, the evidence that reprints lower prices is weak for cards not legal in Block, Standard, or Modern. However, the number of reprints is correlated with but not equal to the print run size. Hence, there is a good chance that using the number of reprints rather than absolute print run sizes is subject to measurement error.

Table 4:

=======================================
Reprints, Tournament Legality, and Price
=======================================
1% increase in reprints = -8% price
Card is Block legal = -38% price
Card is Standard legal = +42% price
Card is Modern legal = +11% price
1% increase in reprints for Block legal cards = -14% price
1% increase in reprints for Standard legal cards = +16% price
1% increase in reprints for Modern legal cards = 5% price
1% increase in reprints for a 1% newer card = +2% price
1% increase in reprints for a 1 rank in draft pick = -3% price
=======================================


To disentangle the tournament legality question from the issue of reprints, several interaction effects were included in the model. What this means is that the number of reprints for a card are evaluated conditional on the card being legal in a tournament format. The term ln[Reprints]*Standard captures the effects of reprints if the card is legal in Standard tournaments. The estimate above tells us that an additional reprint for an average Standard card lowers the price of the card by about 18%.

The multiplication of the logged number of reprints and power level tells us that reprints are especially detrimental to high-powered cards. Specifically, each reprint lowers the value of a card exponentially: an average first-pack first-pick Cube card like Sol Ring would lose about 36% of its value if it were to be reprinted; a reprint for a 10th pick Cube card like Regrowth, will lower the price only by about 13%. For cards that do not even making onto the power ranking list, this additional effect on price disappears..