Choosing a deck for Denver (a brief article)

[SpikeyMikey]

What will the field look like at GP: Denver? As with any major tournament, this is the most important question you can ask if you want to win. Everything is determined from there. What deck you play. What cards you sideboard. What hands you keep, what role you take as the default, even what you bring to the venue with you (if I expect long, grindy matches, I will bring food with me. If I expect short matches all day, I’ll bring a book). But knowing the field is more than knowing the breakdown of decks. Even when a deck is heavily represented at a tournament, there’s no guarantee that you’re going to face it. While knowing lists is important for tuning your main and board to a field, when selecting what deck to bring, you want to look at the format as a whole.

Legacy, currently, is slow. Now of course, terms like slow or fast are contextual. Compared to Standard, Legacy is always fast. Compared to Vintage, it’s always slow. But there is an ebb and flow within the context of itself; sometimes the format is a little faster and certain strategies benefit, sometimes its slower and other strategies become dominant. Like a wave, Legacy has its peaks and valleys, slow and then fast and back to slow again. It’s my opinion that we’re currently at the apex of the slow part of that wave. The format isn’t going to trend to the slow side anymore because we’ve reached a point where the general mass of decks that comprise the field at any major tournament is slow enough that balls-to-the-wall speed can now beat it consistently.

Normally, this would mean that the correct deck to take to Denver would be something like Reanimator, Dredge or storm. But Reanimator is not a good choice in the current environment because of Deathrite Shaman. Dredge, on the other hand, is still playable. The presence of DRS and Rest in Peace in the main deck of a couple of different competitive lists has made players complacent about keeping enough sideboard GY hate. Deathrite definitely hinders Dredge, but the deck can work through it and unlike Scavenging Ooze, Deathrite cannot remove Bridges.

Moving on to the storm listings, Belcher and SI are too inconsistent for a GP. Over the course of 15 rounds, you’re going to lose more than 2 to your own deck. However, ANT and TES are both solid choices right now. In fact, most of the rumblings I’ve heard from Legacy players in the know is that people are picking up Tendrils-based storm decks in order to take advantage of the rise of Shardless BUG and the fact that people are trimming Force of Wills. Combine that with the fact that Miracles is running more heavily towards anti-creature (Terminus, StP, Energy Field, etc.) and that Counterbalance is taking a backseat to Stoneforge Mystic with Abrupt Decay being everywhere and suddenly, storm makes sense. People taking storm combo to Denver is definitely going to be a thing, and it’s not a bad decision at all.

But I don’t want to play storm. One, I don’t have the experience with it and two, 15 rounds of playing storm sounds like as much fun as jamming slivers into my eyeballs. I like to play storm and dredge from time to time on Workstation just to keep people honest, but anything more than a match or two is too much. So let’s recap quickly and see what else is available.

*GY hate is dipping because of playable maindeck hate, so Dredge will be there, probably in the hands of very competent pilots. This is less true of Lands because Lands is slower and that maindeck hate actually *is* enough to stop that deck by itself.
*ANT and TES are the worst kept secrets for Denver, which is to say that people who don’t stay in touch with Legacy will not have those decks on their radar, but everyone who keeps an ear to the ground will either be playing them or tuning against them. I wouldn’t expect them to comprise a heavy percentage of the field (they never do in the US), but there will be 2-3 times as many there as usual.
*BUG flavored decks with heavy discard are going to comprise the largest segment of the field.
*UW Miracles and Esper Stoneblade are merging in response to DRS and Abrupt Decay.
*Goblins has been a presence in the field in the last month or so, while I wouldn’t expect the presence there to be huge, it will be there.

So we need to be at least somewhat effective against Dredge and storm variants, as we can dodge a fair amount of them, but will probably face one at some point. We need to beat BUG decks, but in addition to beating the usual listings, we need to beat ones that are tuned for storm. In fact, those are the most important ones to beat, as they’ll likely have the best pilots. We need to beat Stoneforge Mystic but we probably don’t need to beat Counterbalance. It wouldn’t hurt to be able to beat RIP/Helm.

So how do I plan on doing this in Denver? Zoo. With blue, of course, because as people are fond of pointing out, Brainstorm is amazing. Although in this case, I’m actually playing it because Delver of Secrets does a passable job of imitating Wild Nacatl. By emptying my hand quickly, I can ignore the discard of the tempo BUG decks. I’m fast enough that I can seriously hamper ANT’s ability to use its namesake card (TES is somewhat less exciting, but having access to blue for board cards helps). I can definitely beat Stoneforge Mystic, as it’s unlikely that Mystic will ever survive through an untap step. RIP/Helm is a slow combo and I can race it. Zoo is generally favorable against Goblins. Only Dredge is not a fantastic matchup, but you can’t have everything; of the decks outlined above, I expect it to be the least played.

Counting by Threes

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Hidden Herd
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Qasali Pridemage
1 Scavenging Ooze

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Chain Lightning
3 Lightning Helix
2 Fire / Ice

4 Brainstorm
2 Ponder
1 Sylvan Library

4 Wooded Foothills
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Arid Mesa
2 Windswept Heath
3 Taiga
2 Tropical Island
2 Savannah
2 Plateau
1 Volcanic Island
1 Tundra

Sideboard

3 Spell Pierce
3 Rest in Peace
3 Krosan Grip
2 Red Elemental Blast
2 Stony Silence
2 Detention Sphere

I named the deck as a joke, since there are a high number of 3 power, 1 mana creatures combined with Lightning Bolt effects. If you can count by 3, you can pilot this deck. Of course, it’s not actually that easy. Brainstorm and Ponder give you a lot more choices than a normal Zoo deck and add another dimension to your play. They also help you find board cards more easily, allowing me to spread the board out a little more and still effectively stop problem cards. With the disappearance of SnT based decks, I’ve shaved an REB in order to make room for Stony Silence, which is a reasonable board card against storm combo and happens to splash against Affinity and UW with RIP/Helm if I should see either.

I eschewed the more traditional 2 power creatures like Kird Ape and Loam Lion in favor of more 3 power creatures, even if they’re a bit harder to trigger. Having double and triple “Nacatl” openings really pushes the power level of the deck and allows you to punish opponents for keeping questionable hands. Brainstorm and Ponder let you smooth your midgame draws, making it easier to flip Delver and giving you a way to shuffle off late game Hidden Herds when your opponent doesn’t need to make further land drops. Between the two, the deck features an incredibly consistent and powerful start as well as better draws than Zoo is accustomed to. It also has a better game against combo than Zoo has traditionally had. One, because it’s faster than Zoos of old and two, blue gives it access to Spell Pierce which does an excellent job of complimenting REB and Stony Silence to slow down storm. With 7 board cards and 6 cantrips, you’re likely to find one before they go off and with this deck’s clock, 1 is often enough.

The deck matches up well against BUG as they cannot race and their incremental advantage engines are weak vs. Zoo (Hymn to Tourach is less than stellar vs. Zoo and Deathrite Shaman should almost never even get active). It matches up pretty evenly with storm combo and with Miracles (which has a number of tools to crush Zoo if it ever goes to late, but can often have starts that are too slow) and it beats Goblins. The deck’s bad matchups, Dredge, Reanimator and Maverick, are underplayed right now.

[Ellomdian]

Being a Judge can be almost like cheating when it comes to scouting upcoming Meta's. Having said that...

I feel very strongly that Denver will be a turn faster than the 'average' we've been seeing lately. There is going to be a large influx of West-Coast combo, and I feel that if card availability has an impact at all, it will be against the Midrange and Long game control strategies. I think ANT is the deck to play if you want to T8, and that suggests that U/W miracles that is more loosely built (not lazer focused against Creatures) is the deck to play if you want to win and already have byes.

Dredge is a boogey-man, but I feel like only the hardcore dredge players are going to push it with the level of Deathrite love and the incidental RiP usage.

I've been testing extra against AnT and Stoneblade, and neglecting (to my Peril) the Gobbos matchup.

Whatever you are playing, be comfortable sitting down against anything, don't freak out when you see a card you don't recognize, and CALL A JUDGE FOR ORACLE WORDINGS! It's why most judges dislike large eternal events, you spend most of the day showing Oracle to players. Don't just think you know how the card works, and don't be embarrassed to ask (the Judge.)

[Tammit67]

*ANT and TES are the worst kept secrets for Denver, which is to say that people who don’t stay in touch with Legacy will not have those decks on their radar, but everyone who keeps an ear to the ground will either be playing them or tuning against them.

It is the worst kept secret, but both are good enough to win while being expected. Obviously if you show up with discard/counter/hatebears then congrats, you'll beat storm, but should fail hard as you progress through the other 14 rounds.

At this event, I really think more people need to prepare to beat Jund: that deck is strong and grindy against pretty much every fair deck in the room. GerryT's 4 color cascade deck too is rather strong against things that aren't looking to win by turn 3, so plan accordingly. There are so many strategies viable for this GP I don't think you can go in being tuned against combo and beat forceless bug/jund easily. You'll have to pick one.

[Clown of Tresserhorn]

The Denver Metagame is Tempo (RUG, UR delver, BUG) and combo. That pretty much it.

A really solid choice would be burn, since so many people are on BUG right now. My boy Lee just took down the last GPT with burn.

[Koby]

The Denver Metagame is Tempo (RUG, UR delver, BUG) and combo. That pretty much it.

A really solid choice would be burn, since so many people are on BUG right now. My boy Lee just took down the last GPT with burn.

And a large portion of the West coast players are on Blue (60% tempo, 40% control) or combo, so that adds more.

[SpikeyMikey]

It is the worst kept secret, but both are good enough to win while being expected. Obviously if you show up with discard/counter/hatebears then congrats, you'll beat storm, but should fail hard as you progress through the other 14 rounds.

Of course. What I meant when I said tuning against was more along the lines of Pierce over Snare or shaving a Terminus for a Counterspell, etc. Minor changes to the deck that will add percentage points against storm combo. I mean, even if it shows up in force, you're still not talking about more than 8% of the day 1 meta, tops. You could very easily go the first day without playing it all and I can't imagine anyone seeing it more than 3 times over the course of the weekend, well-positioned or not.

Being that it's a Legacy GP, I am personally expecting to play against 8 different decks day 1 (I only have 1 bye because I dropped out of a PTQ early after a bad start and ended last season 33 PWP short of the 2 bye cut-off...), which is why it was important to me to have something that can beat a wide variety of decks. Being really, really fast can do that, sometimes you can just ignore your opponent and melt their face off.

I was nervous about the storm matchup with Zoo and almost jumped off of it before I did the testing because I expect a heavier than normal storm presence in Denver, but testing actually went incredibly well. Fast Zoo starts can be bad for storm, especially for ANT where they need a little set up time. If I'm on the play, Ad Nauseam isn't viable and if I'm on the draw, it's still dangerous. Postboard with Stony and counters in, the matchup moves to favorable. TES is a little harder, as they're faster with the Chrome Moxen and extra Rituals, but it's not as consistent either. I ended up posting a positive record against storm in general, with Belcher being the worst matchup and Hight Tide being the best.

[xfxf]

I think UR Delver (probably Flusterstorm/Nivmagus version) would be a good choice for Denver as it's a pain for BUG decks (PoP) and has enough pressure+counters to be a pain for the storm decks. My second choice would be Sneak Attack as it is good against all of the above decks when dedicated hate isn't there.

[obituary 95]

I feel like this tournament is just going to be dominated by abrupt decay decks. especially since they push out every single counterbalance control deck. welcome to the aggro control meta game where you are almost forced into creature combat.

[Koby]

I'm working on a quick study of the Nov+Dec metagame and how we could use that data to model a potential "open" tournament based on TCdecks tournament data (much like our DTB forum is). I'll post it tonite after I massage the data to make a more coherent picture. Namely, combined BUG Tempo with BUG Control, sort out expected strategies (ie, Tempo vs Midrange vs Combo), etc.

Quick point: The top performing 50% of the metagame are: (based on Dec data)
RUG Delver 13%
Miracles 10%
Team America 8%
Goblins 5%
Maverick 5%
BUG Control 4%
Stoneblade 4%

EDIT: Oops, that's November data. Still fairly valid provided we realize it's using weighted data based on final finish.

[Tormod]

If I was going to GP Denver, I would bring maverick.

Decline of miracles and counter balance
Taxing effects vs combo
Mother of runes beats abrupt decay
Maverick beats BUG, Stoneblade, RUG
Slower format
Choke is well positioned
Perish has been dropped to a sb singleton or less in sideboards
Noble Hierarch
Access to stoney silence and rest in peace.

Should fly completely under the radar

[JACO]

I don't think there will be tons of Storm decks in Denver, because frankly most people are terrible with Storm. It's much easier for them to feel like they know what they're doing casting Tarmogoyf, and extracting maximum amounts of 'value' trying to 'get there' with cards like Deathrite Shaman (lame).

I feel like this tournament is just going to be dominated by abrupt decay decks. especially since they push out every single counterbalance control deck. welcome to the aggro control meta game where you are almost forced into creature combat.

This seems like a more prescient sentiment. I think BUG variants will be the most played deck. If I was going to play a fair deck for this tournament it would almost certainly feature multiple Scavenging Oozes and 4 Punishing Fires. Between those two cards you would annihilate the other fair decks like RUG Delver, BUG, UR Delver, Maverick, Jund, and Esper Stoneblade.

[Vacrix]

How does having a Pierceable "Nacatl" affect your game plan? Otherwise, looks like a pretty solid choice.

[door]

I don't see much logic in what you say:

So we need to be at least somewhat effective against Dredge and storm variants, as we can dodge a fair amount of them, but will probably face one at some point <...> Only Dredge is not a fantastic matchup, but you can’t have everything; of the decks outlined above, I expect it to be the least played.

And as a result you suggest playing a deck which can't win against storm combo and looses to its own manabase. The deck is a joke indeed. I even think it does not have a chance against miracles; you attack until the first Terminus occurs, then all the creatures are easily countered by CB. Or maybe I'm mistaken?

[Sloshthedark]

No.1 choice - Belcher (over Ant)
2. Jund - seems underplayed in US
3. Nivmagus Thresh

Ant has problem with Shaman, not Wild Nacatl, I can't imagine your deck going more favorable with Ant than Burn, you always die G1 via PiF, G2+3 you have comparable amount of hate, Rest in Peace more relevant than spellpierce/REB, so you lose G3 to a horde of goblins at best

Ant is a fine choice, everybody knows you play it, everybody gets ready and still die awfully, so even better when unprepared... recent drop of FoW but rise of hand disruption+GY hate combination present makes me doubt it's strenght as you randomly lose the same way (unlike just counters - you just wait and they die depending on luck and preasure)... I'd not call it solid choice, still when it's probably your best shot if you know what you're doing with it...

Jund is surprisingly strong card advantage archetype and I'd prefer it to Zoo in the field, it also has more game with Ant

[Maximus]

If I had to pick a deck going blind, I'd pick 19 land rug delver personally.

[Amon Amarth]

I don't think there will be tons of Storm decks in Denver, because frankly most people are terrible with Storm. It's much easier for them to feel like they know what they're doing casting Tarmogoyf, and extracting maximum amounts of 'value' trying to 'get there' with cards like Deathrite Shaman (lame).

This seems like a more prescient sentiment. I think BUG variants will be the most played deck. If I was going to play a fair deck for this tournament it would almost certainly feature multiple Scavenging Oozes and 4 Punishing Fires. Between those two cards you would annihilate the other fair decks like RUG Delver, BUG, UR Delver, Maverick, Jund, and Esper Stoneblade.

I sometimes wonder if I'm the only one who isn't in love with really shitty DRS mirrors. It's like people are willing to play Islands, and Brainstorm but no permission so they can grind out other fair, mostly Blue decks, but they aren't willing to pull the trigger and jam something like Nic Fit or whatever because it has a "terrible" combo matchup. Color me confused.

[twndomn]

This is very contradictory. You said, "in order to take advantage of the rise of Shardless BUG and the fact that people are trimming Force of Wills." Then you said, "GY hate is dipping because of playable maindeck hate." Dude, if BUG is the number 1 choice, naturally all the non-BUG players would pack at least 2 relic of progenitus in the SB. Why would you play something that would take splash-hate since every non-BUG is hating graveyard right now? Of course GY hate is rising not dipping.

Your so-called zoo deck is crying for [card]Green Sun's Zenith[/card] since you don't need ponder, can you hear it? GSZ allows you to run singleton Gaddock Teeg or any other toolbox.

[Tammit67]

I sometimes wonder if I'm the only one who isn't in love with really shitty DRS mirrors. It's like people are willing to play Islands, and Brainstorm but no permission so they can grind out other fair, mostly Blue decks, but they aren't willing to pull the trigger and jam something like Nic Fit or whatever because it has a "terrible" combo matchup. Color me confused.

And nic fit (not rector fit since DRS give it fits if I understand that interaction correctly)/jund are plain under represented compared to how strong they are against the fiel.! "We play blue for combo, then cut forces from the main". Oh ok.

[SpikeyMikey]

I don't see much logic in what you say:



And as a result you suggest playing a deck which can't win against storm combo and looses to its own manabase. The deck is a joke indeed. I even think it does not have a chance against miracles; you attack until the first Terminus occurs, then all the creatures are easily countered by CB. Or maybe I'm mistaken?

CB Top is a great answer to decks with lots of cheap spells, this one included. But you need both the turn 2 CounterTop and the Terminus on turn 3 to effectively lock the deck out in G1. That's about 5.5% of games on the play and 7.5% of games on the draw. Miracles has the tools on paper, but in the games that I've played against it, it just doesn't get there as often as you'd think it should.

The mana base is beyond stable. I've actually been considering shaving a land because I tend to get flooded out from time to time. Yes, you're running a 4th color, but you're also running 21 fetches/duals in comparison to a deck like RUG that's running 13 fetches/duals. You've still got Brainstorm and Ponder, but you're running 62% more land.

Again, storm, overall, has been just fine for me. I did lose to it at the last SCG I went to, but that was the result of a play error on my part in G3, when I let him walk me along too fast and didn't Pierce the LED. I compounded the mistake by Piercing the IT which left me unable to bolt him to death after his Ad Nauseam.

[Richard Cheese]

Your mistake was including a decklist in the original post, because you know the whole thread is just going to boil down to nitpicking that one list.

I think your analysis will prove to be mostly true. If people are net decking based on recent events then it's going to be a pretty good time to play something unfair. Dredge, Reanimator, Storm, and burn all seem pretty solid.