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Thread: The Rogue Hermit

  1. #981

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Looks fine; I would not run the 2nd Cabal Therapy over the 4th Street Wraith tho', I think with the London those extra black cards are just a wet blanket.

  2. #982

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    So, Im well over 200 matches played on MTGO with this deck. I think I almost figured out everything.
    Got a couple of 4-1 with this list:

    4 Balustrade Spy
    4 Undercity Informer
    4 Narcomoeba
    1 Dread Return
    1 Lotleth Giant
    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Chancellor of the Annex
    1 Cabal Therapy
    3 Street Wraith
    1 Bridge from Below
    4 Chancellor of the Tangle
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Simian Spirit Guide
    4 Summonerís Pact
    1 Wild Cantor
    4 Lotus Petal
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Dark Ritual
    4 Cabal Ritual

    I think that shaving the color fixers is the way to go.
    We want max 1 fixer per game usually. Wild Cantor is vastly superior than Manamorphose imo , but the 2nd Wild Cantor is pretty bad.
    We want at least 8 protections maindeck. There are way too many Aggro-Control/Control decks around. While I dont think that Chancellor is particulary good maindeck, it still probably the best thing we can possible have. The 2nd best possible thing is probably Unmask, bit its pretty awkward even with 20+ black cards due to the conflict with Chrome mox. Maybe there is a way to fit at least a couple of copies in the maindeck, idk.

    I extensively tested Veil of Summer and Guttural Response and they are just bad. One mana answers are way too much for this deck.
    Last edited by Jax-; 07-22-2019 at 01:25 PM.

  3. #983

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    So, Im well over 200 matches played on MTGO with this deck. I think I almost figured out everything.
    Got a couple of 4-1 with this list:

    4 Balustrade Spy
    4 Undercity Informer
    4 Narcomoeba
    1 Dread Return
    1 Lotleth Giant
    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Chancellor of the Annex
    1 Cabal Therapy
    3 Street Wraith
    1 Bridge from Below
    4 Chancellor of the Tangle
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Simian Spirit Guide
    4 Summonerís Pact
    1 Wild Cantor
    4 Lotus Petal
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Dark Ritual
    4 Cabal Ritual

    I think that shaving the color fixers is the way to go.
    We want max 1 fixer per game usually. Wild Cantor is vastly superior than Manamorphose imo , but the 2nd Wild Cantor is pretty bad.
    We want at least 8 protections maindeck. There are way too many Aggro-Control/Control decks around. While I dont think that Chancellor is particulary good maindeck, it still probably the best thing we can possible have. The 2nd best possible thing is probably Unmask, bit its pretty awkward even with 20+ black cards due to the conflict with Chrome mox. Maybe there is a way to fit at least a couple of copies in the maindeck, idk.

    I extensively tested Veil of Summer and Guttural Response and they are just bad. One mana answers are way too much for this deck.
    You don't like Belcher in side?
    4 Belcher
    4 led
    4 spoils vault
    3 rite of flame

  4. #984

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    So, Im well over 200 matches played on MTGO with this deck. I think I almost figured out everything.
    Got a couple of 4-1 with this list:

    4 Balustrade Spy
    4 Undercity Informer
    4 Narcomoeba
    1 Dread Return
    1 Lotleth Giant
    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Chancellor of the Annex
    1 Cabal Therapy
    3 Street Wraith
    1 Bridge from Below
    4 Chancellor of the Tangle
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Simian Spirit Guide
    4 Summonerís Pact
    1 Wild Cantor
    4 Lotus Petal
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Dark Ritual
    4 Cabal Ritual

    I think that shaving the color fixers is the way to go.
    We want max 1 fixer per game usually. Wild Cantor is vastly superior than Manamorphose imo , but the 2nd Wild Cantor is pretty bad.
    We want at least 8 protections maindeck. There are way too many Aggro-Control/Control decks around. While I dont think that Chancellor is particulary good maindeck, it still probably the best thing we can possible have. The 2nd best possible thing is probably Unmask, bit its pretty awkward even with 20+ black cards due to the conflict with Chrome mox. Maybe there is a way to fit at least a couple of copies in the maindeck, idk.

    I extensively tested Veil of Summer and Guttural Response and they are just bad. One mana answers are way too much for this deck.
    Looks close to a list I posted awhile ago, Veil of Summer, Guttural Response and Unmask are only ever meant to be played on the draw when you have the 8th card to afford them.

  5. #985

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Yep. Took the list from one of your posts here. Caprino was also on something similar, I think.

    You would be shocked but im trying the old Wish list too. I never played it before but with the online meta at around 70% fair blue decks, I kinda like the higher threat density.

    I kinda like a couple of sweet silver bullets like Magus of the Moon in this super greedy 3c/4c decks meta.

    Im also thinking about trying the new 7/6 zombie. It looks sweet in theory as an alternative win condition vs Delver since they cant basically kill it and it ignores Snare , Pierce, Flusterstorm and Force of Negation.

  6. #986

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    This is the list im playing.

    MD

    4 Spy
    3 Informer
    3 LW

    4 Narco
    1 DR
    1 Giant
    1 Therapy

    4 LED
    4 SSG
    4 ESG
    4 D. Rit
    4 C. Rit
    3 Tangle

    4 Mox
    4 Petal
    4 Green Pact
    4 Wild Cantor

    4 Annex

    SB

    1 Informer
    1 Swamp
    1 Cavern
    4 Leyline of Sanctity
    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Force of Vigor

    Some thoughts.

    I think the Living Wish or some form of tutor is needed. Even with the London Mulligan.
    I think that 10 win conditions is the sweet spot. Double Wish hands are bad imo, you want max 1 LW in the opener, LW+Hermit is fine tho'.
    3 Tangle is probably wrong, Im a strong believer that Tangle is secretly the best card in the deck.
    Uncounterable mana + imprint on Mox + LW for Cavern/Swamp is a very solid play. Pitchs to Force, stores Wild Cantor mana. Do a lot.
    Why 3 then? Because space is tight. I think I could probably cut one Wild Cantor, but I hate shaving on mana fixer since im already playing 16 instead of the 17 of the "speed wishless" list.

    No Bridge and only one Therapy. Im totally sure that this is the way to go. It's the high risk high reward way. You will occasionally lose to bad players that sandbag a counter or because of some unlucky draw, but shaving dead cards in the deck is certanly right.
    LED can also mitigate this.

    About LED. I think it's good. It improves all the non blue matchups while also having some utility g1 vs tax counters and makes Informer a better card overall.

    The best thing about this list is how easy is the sideboarding.
    I never ever touch anything besides LEDs and Annex.
    I never mess with mana and mana fixers or win conditions.

    So outside some plus/minus stuff, the core is pretty much solved. Everything rotates around those cards imo:

    Lion's Eye Diamond
    Chancellor of the Annex
    Pact of Negation
    Leyline of Sanctity
    Force of Vigor
    Carpet of Flowers
    Xantid Swarm
    Unmask
    Nature's Claim

    I tested pretty much anything at this point. Those are the best of the best.
    Almost all the 1 mana or 2 mana answers are bad in this deck because they require too many resources.

    We can fit 8 of those in the maindeck and 12 in the sideboard and switch them in the various matchups without altering the core structure and consistency of the deck.

    I think that overall, besides any configuration, 8 of those cards are pretty much locked in: 4 Pact and 4 Force of Vigor/Nature's Claim.
    Pact is by far the best answer to counterspells and Surgical Extraction that are enemy #1 of this deck.
    Force of Vigor/Nature's Claim are mandatory online, way too many Leylines.

    So we are left with:

    Lion's Eye Diamond
    Chancellor of the Annex
    Leyline of Sanctity
    Carpet of Flowers
    Xantid Swarm
    Unmask

    If you go with LED its either maindeck LED and sideboard Pact or the opposite. You can't fit both in the maindeck because of the obvious bad interaction between the two.

    Chancellor of the Annex is best played when on the play, but on the draw it stills have some utility vs Chalice and Thoughtseize.
    If you play it in the SB you will really use it in one game tho.

    Leyline of Sancity is a strictly SB card. I think it's really good and have a pretty big range of utility. The main problem of it is that it doesn't improve our worst matchups, stopping a random Tormod or Nihil spellbomb is not enough probably.

    Carpet of Flowers. This card is different from the other, it's not an answer/protection, but it acts like a very very improved mana fixer and infinite resource generator.
    The thing I like of this card is that it has a very good synergy with Chancellor of the Tangle, also this is the only card that you can freely sideboard vs blue based without messing with the consistency of the deck but actually improving it.
    You can, for example, cut 3 Wild Cantor and add 3 Carpet of Flowers, I think this a straight improvement post side vs blue because that makes our creatures castable, and a lot of other stuff.
    Vs blue based you can have 4 Chancellor (already maindeck) 4 Pact 3/4 Carpet and shave 4 LED and 3/4 Wild Cantor.
    I also had thoughts of maindecking some copies of it due to the 70% blue based meta online, but thats probably too much.

    Xantid Swarm. I think it's by far the best kind of protection we can board in but its super fragile and forces you to wait a turn and hope it doesn't die (and dodge their graveyard hate too).
    The fact that it forces them to be' on Force of Will/Lightning Bolt or scoop is the thing that keeps me still interested in it.
    It's the only protection card that stops their Surgicals and it's not a 1x1.
    But it dies so fast to pretty much anything.

    Unmask. This is only good vs Faerie Macabre. I don't see any reason to play it unless you want an out to FM. I would rather just scoop to it because its barely played. A lot of things need to line up perfectly to make this card valuable vs blue based. You need to win the turn you cast it otherwise a single Brainstorm can mess it, its a 2x1 at best or it just eats a Daze and that sucks. It could work in some versions of the deck with like 25-30 black cards, but I still think it's a pretty medium choice.

    I'll leave my conclusions for the next wall of text.
    Last edited by Jax-; 07-27-2019 at 01:46 PM.

  7. #987

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Played in the Legacy Challenge. Didn't go well, lost some very close games tho.

    Played two Leagues between rounds and 4-1d twice.

    List is:

    4 Petal
    4 Mox
    4 LED
    4 SSG
    4 ESG
    4 Green Pact
    4 Wild Cantor
    4 D. Rit
    4 C. Rit
    4 Tangle

    4 Wish
    4 Spy
    3 Informer

    2 Therapy
    1 Bridge
    4 Narco
    1 Giant
    1 DR

    SB

    4 Leyline of Sancity
    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Force of Vigor
    1 Cavern
    1 Swamp
    1 Informer

    List is very good.

  8. #988

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Havent played a lot of Oops recently. Played a League and ended 3-2 vs FIVE blue decks.

    This is my last take on the deck, not going to change anything anymore, I think that I tryed pretty much anything at this point and this seems the best you can get in this fair blue meta.

    This is basically the list that Final Fortune posted a couple of pages ago, so nothing new.

    4 Pact of Negation
    4 Chancellor of the Annex

    4 Balustrade Spy
    4 Undercity Informer

    4 Simian Spirit Guide
    4 Elvish Spirit Guide
    4 Summoner's Pact
    4 Lotus Petal
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Chancellor of the Tangle
    4 Dark Ritual
    4 Cabal Ritual

    4 Street Wraith
    1 Wild Cantor

    1 Cabal Therapy
    1 Lotleth Giant
    1 Dread Return
    4 Narcomoeba


    4 Unmask
    4 Force of Vigor
    3 Nature's Claim
    4 Leyline of Sanctity

    The only way you can improve this list in my opinion is switching 4 Street Wraith with 4 Zombie Spirit Guide. Until then there is really nothing and just min/max on mana sources and dead cards will not make the deck any better.

  9. #989

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    I may come back to the deck.

    Any deck with 8 pacts and 8 chancellors is right up my alley.

    Oops was my first legacy deck back before top, probe, and DRS were banned.
    I never actually liked the belcher plan. It always felt like worse belcher, which isn't where any deck wants to be IMO. You could just be belcher.

    Gonna test on MTGO.

    Thanks for continuously testing and updating things!

    Does anyone have any blinged out versions of this deck to see?

  10. #990

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Once Upon a Time looks broken in this deck, if we switch out Manamorphose for Wild Cantors then it's either a win condition, a mana source, a cantrip or a mana filter. I think between Land Grant, Summoner's Pact for Forest Cycle, Swamp Cycle and Once Upon a Time there is a 1xBayou list out there as well, this card just makes us insanely consistent from the few gold fish games I have done .. I mean good lord was printing this a hell of a gamble.

  11. #991

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Final Fortune View Post
    Once Upon a Time looks broken in this deck, if we switch out Manamorphose for Wild Cantors then it's either a win condition, a mana source, a cantrip or a mana filter. I think between Land Grant, Summoner's Pact for Forest Cycle, Swamp Cycle and Once Upon a Time there is a 1xBayou list out there as well, this card just makes us insanely consistent from the few gold fish games I have done .. I mean good lord was printing this a hell of a gamble.
    Thought about it immediately when I saw the spoiler.
    But im not playing Manamorphose already, so the only free slot are Street Wraith, but Street Wraith imprints on Mox for black.
    Also 2 of those in hand are pretty bad, and whats the chance to hit a Spy off the top if we keep a turn 1 kill without a win condition (which is something I NEVER do)?

    So I think that realistically the best case scenario is that it gives +1 mana if you hit SSG/ESG and maybe mana fix for black if you hit Cantor.

    I agree that may be a new list that could run it properly, but you need to rework the list completely.

  12. #992

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax- View Post
    Thought about it immediately when I saw the spoiler.
    But im not playing Manamorphose already, so the only free slot are Street Wraith, but Street Wraith imprints on Mox for black.
    Also 2 of those in hand are pretty bad, and whats the chance to hit a Spy off the top if we keep a turn 1 kill without a win condition (which is something I NEVER do)?

    So I think that realistically the best case scenario is that it gives +1 mana if you hit SSG/ESG and maybe mana fix for black if you hit Cantor.

    I agree that may be a new list that could run it properly, but you need to rework the list completely.
    Head math is around 80% to find a win condition if you donít have one in hand.

  13. #993

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Nope, the % is way lower. Around 57%.

    It's 85% because you calculated it like if you drawn 12 (or 13) cards. But it doesnt work like that, because if you are looking for a win condition you have already 7 cards in hand and you know that you don't have a Spy in hand, only after that you can calculate the % of seeing one of the eight Spies in the top5.

    So its 8 cards in 53 cards, not 8 cards in 48 cards.

    But anyway I think its still worth testing, because it also have a 57% chance of finding SSG/ESG so its an extra mana in the opening hand. And the chance is a bit better on the draw.
    You can imprint extra copies on Mox.

    It does have a better chance of finding the 4th mana than Street Wraith, and its pretty good at finding Cantor too, and Cantor is a better card than Manamorphose vs Aggro Control.

    The only downside if you switch Street Wraith for this is going down in creatures and black cards.

    There is also a chance that you can play both Wraith and this and have an insane 6 cards look for free, but the space is super tight and you need to shave on protections spells.

    Maybe you can just go for a zero maindeck protections and try to pull out the most consistent list and still have a better win rate because you never fizzle while your opponents have a lower chance of having interaction, seems unlikely but who knows.

  14. #994

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    It's 8/53 + 8/52 + 8/51 + 8/50 + 8/49 right? Regardless it's a free Impulse for the deck, I don't know how that can be passed up.

  15. #995

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by Final Fortune View Post
    It's 8/53 + 8/52 + 8/51 + 8/50 + 8/49 right? Regardless it's a free Impulse for the deck, I don't know how that can be passed up.
    If this is for saying "I have none of my 8 win conditions in hand and am casting a Once Upon a Time, what's the probability I hit at least one win-con", that's not quite right; you can sanity-check that by considering if the Impulse actually let you see every card in your deck, in which case your sum of 8/53 + 8/52 + ... + 8/3 + 8/2 + 8/1 would be much much much larger than 100% :P

    The correct probability is what Jax- said, of ~57.4%; hypergeometric calculator on 53 cards, 8 successes, sample size of 5, and looking for at least 1 hit. Another way of calculating it would be "what's the probability I whiff?", and subtracting that from 100% - the probability there is 45/53 * 44/52 * 43/51 * 42/50 * 41/49 ~ 42.6%.

    Hope this helps :)

  16. #996

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Quote Originally Posted by notkevin View Post
    If this is for saying "I have none of my 8 win conditions in hand and am casting a Once Upon a Time, what's the probability I hit at least one win-con", that's not quite right; you can sanity-check that by considering if the Impulse actually let you see every card in your deck, in which case your sum of 8/53 + 8/52 + ... + 8/3 + 8/2 + 8/1 would be much much much larger than 100% :P

    The correct probability is what Jax- said, of ~57.4%; hypergeometric calculator on 53 cards, 8 successes, sample size of 5, and looking for at least 1 hit. Another way of calculating it would be "what's the probability I whiff?", and subtracting that from 100% - the probability there is 45/53 * 44/52 * 43/51 * 42/50 * 41/49 ~ 42.6%.

    Hope this helps :)
    Ah it's a multiplier and not additive, been out of school for way too long.

  17. #997

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Wow nobody came back with Once Upon a Time?

    I wanna see that new stuff

  18. #998

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    Yup. Deck is pretty good.

    Just take the last list posted and do -4 Wraith +4 OUAT.

    With less black cards I also shaved the Unmasks, replaced them with Carpets.

    Now the bottleneck is completely on the black mana filtering, we can easily fix it by playing 4 Cantors or 4 Manamorphose, but going under 8 protections maindeck is wrong imo.

  19. #999

    Re: The Rogue Hermit

    well that makes a lot of sense. thanks

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