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Thread: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

  1. #61

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by andrebonotto View Post
    Sylvan Library vs. Mirri's Guile:

    I guess you're right on this. I'll swap the Guile for the second Library, because of it's card drawing ability.

    Also, do you side in the Libraries against blue decks too, or only against discard?
    I would side in Libraries against discard and blue decks. My first desire to play Mirri's Guile was to counter the lock of Jace and fateseal. In a game you don't expect to win within the first or second turn, Library allows you to rebuild for that sudden kill, rather than pray your deck is shuffled with luck and slow drawing the number of critical spells. Decks with Jace will typically let you draw cards again (be aware there'll be more answers to fight through as well.)

  2. #62

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by ahg113 View Post
    I would side in Libraries against discard and blue decks. My first desire to play Mirri's Guile was to counter the lock of Jace and fateseal. In a game you don't expect to win within the first or second turn, Library allows you to rebuild for that sudden kill, rather than pray your deck is shuffled with luck and slow drawing the number of critical spells. Decks with Jace will typically let you draw cards again (be aware there'll be more answers to fight through as well.)
    Library is what I would run. Paired with carpet, you have good late game.

  3. #63
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Hmmm... I had completely forgot about Jace and fateseal and was only considering the extra relevant draws to surpass the quantity of counterspells. It seems even more interesting now.

    Against RUG Threshold, though, boarding in the Libraries seems a bit risky to me, since the lifeloss from the drawing might be an issue, for they can put us on a real clock.

    ...

    @ Buckjunt:

    Despite the more flexible mana requirement from the latter, that you pointed, I'm actually prefering Pyroblasts over Guttural Responses because a dead Pyroblast in hand could become a somehow usefull card if used to increase storm count.

  4. #64

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    True. I had actually forgotten that point.

  5. #65

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    With the new legend rule, maybe mox opal + grim monolith can make this deck more consistent. petal, mox, diamond, belcher, monolith, opal = 24 artifacts

  6. #66

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    If you do a number crunch, you will find its still not viable.

  7. #67
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    If you do a number crunch, you will find its still not viable.
    There is absolutely no way you can do anything to calculate if it's viable or not.
    "Part of me belives that Barrin taught me meditation simply to shut me up."

    -Ertai, wizard adept

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  8. #68

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Its called math. You just need to find the odds of drawing a mox with 2 other artifacts, and belcher doesn't count because you usually need belcher for metalcraft to cast itself. Having that many artifacts will impact the effectiveness of chrome mox as well. So yeah, there is. Also, I have tested it personally, it is just too inconsistent.

  9. #69
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    Its called math. You just need to find the odds of drawing a mox with 2 other artifacts, and belcher doesn't count because you usually need belcher for metalcraft to cast itself. Having that many artifacts will impact the effectiveness of chrome mox as well. So yeah, there is. Also, I have tested it personally, it is just too inconsistent.
    I know what math is, I use it daily. So you calculate the probability of drawing Mox+2 artifacts. Now what? You don't know anything. Do you include Manamorphose? Because Manamorphose will situationally give you a higher probability of getting another artifact. Do you take into account that you cannot always cast Monolith without Mox Opal mana? No, you don't. Even if you were to find some kind of probability taking all such factors into account, then what does that tell you? Absolutely nothing. You have nothing to compare it against, except your own judgements like "Oh, well, that sounds pretty low". I didn't even mention the fact that a mana source that remains in play can be much more valuable than one that doesn't.
    "Part of me belives that Barrin taught me meditation simply to shut me up."

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  10. #70

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Obviously reusable sources are ideal, but its still not going to have metalcraft consistently. And mentioning monolith only hurt your argument. And wouldn't manamorphose be the first thing you cut?

  11. #71
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    You don't understand my point. My point is that you cannot say for sure that running Mox/Monolith is a bad plan. Saying that you won't get metalcraft consistently is a moot point. It's possible that it's fine to occasionally not have metalcraft if the upside is big enough in the cases you do have metalcraft.

    I hope you see that mentioning Monolith does not hurt my argument. On what basis would Manamorphose be the first thing you cut?
    "Part of me belives that Barrin taught me meditation simply to shut me up."

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  12. #72
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Rather than theorizing, why doesn't someone create a list, proxy it, and goldfish a ton to see if it's reliable? If the math is too complex, experiment.

  13. #73

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    @ bahamuth: Do you read what you type? The entire point the deck exists is because of consistency. Saying metalcraft is moot is absolutely absurd. Secondly, you said yourself there will be hands that you will have monolith and cannot cast it because you need Metalcraft. This would be what you mentioned we need to consider, so making a point against yourself is...counterproductive. I hope YOU see this.
    And I am beginning to think you haven't actually play the deck if you honestly need to ask why manamorphose would be the first cut.

    As for sleeving up a list, I have. I stated this. I tried a few different builds but would draw too many dead hands.

  14. #74
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    Saying metalcraft is moot is absolutely absurd.
    Since you don't seem to understand what I'm trying to say, I'll make it clear by ad absurdum.

    Let's say Mox Opal requires metalcraft, but instead of a single mana, it would tap for 5 mana. Now, your argument would be that we wouldn't run the card because you think it would hurt consistency. I'd say we would absolutely run that card, because, even if there are some cases where we miss Metalcraft, the upside of the cases where you do have metalcraft is way too big.

    Now obviously, Mox Opal doesn't tap for 5 mana, but it does tap for 1 and is a sustainable source. All I am saying is that you cannot immediately say that running Mox Opal is bad. You seem to think I'm saying you should run Mox Opal. I'm not. I'm saying it's a real possibility.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    Secondly, you said yourself there will be hands that you will have monolith and cannot cast it because you need Metalcraft. This would be what you mentioned we need to consider, so making a point against yourself is...counterproductive. I hope YOU see this.
    I don't even understand what you're saying here. The fact that you can't play Monolith at times is a relevant point, but it doesn't instantly mean running Mox Opal is a bad idea. It's just something you have to take into account.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    And I am beginning to think you haven't actually play the deck if you honestly need to ask why manamorphose would be the first cut.
    I can say for a fact that I have at least goldfished Belcher more than anyone here. I have a program that can goldfish Belcher for me, and the results of that are telling me that there's no real reason to cut Manamorphose.
    "Part of me belives that Barrin taught me meditation simply to shut me up."

    -Ertai, wizard adept

    http://solidarityprimer.proboards85.com/index.cgi

  15. #75

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Obviously bad hands will happen regardless of the build or deck. But having a card that is dead more often than not is bad, let alone the fact that we are talking about a deck that is trying to go off turn 1. I have personally attempted many variants including the mox, and it was not nearly as consistent as it needed to be. If we found room for at least another playset of a different artifact than maybe, but nothing viable comes to mind. I thought everflowing chalice could be cute, being able to use lions eyes to multikick it. Have not tested that, but i wouldn't hold my breath. Maybe other people have had better results, but personally opal has been bad.

    As for monolith, i have no problem with it, i currently run 2 in my build. I was simply pointing out that you had unintentionally maid a point against your idea of using opal by suggesting a scenario where the mox is needed to cast the monolith but you need the monolith for metalcraft.

    And on manamorphose, what would you suggest cutting to fit in opals? Manamorphose is easily the weakest card in any given build with the exception of maybe street wraith.

    And you aren't the only person on the interwebs who knows how to download programs (or make them) more magic. Please show proof that you have goldfished this deck more than anyone else here. You should be able to, since you know this as a fact. I thought you were ending the absurdity.

  16. #76
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    Obviously bad hands will happen regardless of the build or deck. But having a card that is dead more often than not is bad, let alone the fact that we are talking about a deck that is trying to go off turn 1. I have personally attempted many variants including the mox, and it was not nearly as consistent as it needed to be. If we found room for at least another playset of a different artifact than maybe, but nothing viable comes to mind. I thought everflowing chalice could be cute, being able to use lions eyes to multikick it. Have not tested that, but i wouldn't hold my breath. Maybe other people have had better results, but personally opal has been bad.

    As for monolith, i have no problem with it, i currently run 2 in my build. I was simply pointing out that you had unintentionally maid a point against your idea of using opal by suggesting a scenario where the mox is needed to cast the monolith but you need the monolith for metalcraft.
    I'm fine with your statement that you have tested various configurations with Mox Opals, and found them to be bad. I think it's probably likely that including Mox Opal is the wrong decision, but remember that I was initially just responding to your statement about doing the math on the inclusion of Mox Opal, which I disagree with.

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    And on manamorphose, what would you suggest cutting to fit in opals? Manamorphose is easily the weakest card in any given build with the exception of maybe street wraith.
    I don't know what the consensus is on lists nowadays (I'll look through this thread a bit), but as an example:

    4 Mox Opal
    4 Grim Monolith
    4 Petal
    4 Led
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Rite
    4 SSG
    4 ESG
    4 Tinder Wall
    4 Grant
    1 Taiga

    4 Gitaxian Probe
    4 Mamamorphose

    4 Belcher
    3 Empty the Warrens
    4 Wish

    I'm not running Seething Songs here, because I'm under the impression it's a strong card in goldfishes, but a bad card in actual magic where my opponent might have counterspells.


    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    And you aren't the only person on the interwebs who knows how to download programs (or make them) more magic. Please show proof that you have goldfished this deck more than anyone else here.
    I don't know what that first sentence means, but anyway, I wrote this program myself and to my knowledge, there's no one else who has done this, or at least who has made this public. Here's the source code:

    http://codepad.org/fqdeHwVQ

    It's probably unreadable, but I doubt anyone would bother anyway. In any case, the program takes quite long to run, so I can't just instantly reproduce results. Here are some results I got when I wrote it a while back.

    Keep in mind that I am 'counting' EtW for less than 10 tokens or dropping Belcher and saying go as a 'win'. That might be the wrong term, so take it as you will.


    List:
    8 Pyretic Ritual
    4 Petal
    4 Led
    4 Chrome Mox
    4 Rite
    4 SSG
    4 ESG
    4 Tinder Wall
    4 Grant
    1 Taiga

    4 Gitaxian Probe
    4 Mamamorphose

    4 Belcher
    3 Empty the Warrens
    4 Wish

    Results:

    7 cards: 10000 games
    (Belcher Win, 12+ Tokens, 12- Tokens, Belcher Drop)
    (1048, 1934, 1622, 1525)

    Total wins = 6129 (including just dropping belcher)=61.29%

    6 cards: 10000 games
    (Belcher Win, 12+ Tokens, 12- Tokens, Belcher Drop)
    (269, 781, 1254, 1300)

    Total wins = 3605 = 36.05%

    5 cards: 10000 games
    (Belcher Win, 12+ Tokens, 12- Tokens, Belcher Drop)
    (6, 147, 427, 493)

    Total wins = 1073 = 10.73%

    4 cards: 10000 games
    (Belcher Win, 12+ Tokens, 12- Tokens, Belcher Drop)
    (0, 1, 6, 9)

    Total wins = 16 = 0.16%

    Grand total win% including mulligans
    77.93%

    Quote Originally Posted by Buckjunt View Post
    I thought you were ending the absurdity.
    40k games. I think I'm pretty safe.
    "Part of me belives that Barrin taught me meditation simply to shut me up."

    -Ertai, wizard adept

    http://solidarityprimer.proboards85.com/index.cgi

  17. #77
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Playing the deck Sunday at SCG Baltimore. If I have the time (and it's worth it), I'll write a report. Otherwise I'll just tell you how much I failed.

  18. #78
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    astormbrewing, the post above this one I think, is currently 5-1, 3 rounds to go.

    -edit-

    last round!
    Last edited by feline; 06-02-2013 at 07:38 PM.
    Primary legacy deck High Tide primer

  19. #79
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    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by feline View Post
    astormbrewing, the post above this one I think, is currently 5-1, 3 rounds to go.

    -edit-

    last round!
    Yep, started 5-1 yesterday, then fell hard to 5-4. Tough match-ups, tough opponents. I'll write up a report later today.

    Edit: Had time before work to write up the report. View it here.
    Last edited by astormbrewing; 06-03-2013 at 08:49 AM.

  20. #80

    Re: [Primer/Deck] Belcher

    Quote Originally Posted by astormbrewing View Post
    Yep, started 5-1 yesterday, then fell hard to 5-4. Tough match-ups, tough opponents. I'll write up a report later today.

    Edit: Had time before work to write up the report. View it here.
    Congrats anyway!! I like the 11 wincond list more than yours but it worked very well thoguht.
    What can you tell us about chancerllor? was it good as 3 off in the side?

    Moreover....gaddock teeg if we get slow...its gg...

    GC

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