Modern GP San Diego Results

[Phoenix Ignition]

Well it's a couple days after the GP but just to give those forum lurkers a bit of info on the metagame, here's an easy link for you to check out the results: Top 8 Decklists

In which the top 8 was (linking to the discussions on these forums):
1st: Eggs Combo
2nd: UWR Control
3-4th:
Vengeant Jund (no active thread, here's regular Jund)
Scapeshift Combo (no active thread)
5-8th:
5-color Aggro (no active thread)
Midrange Naya (no active thread)
Affinity
Junk

So for a little discussion, I think it's telling that there are no Tron decks in the top 8. Even though that deck is one of the cheaper ones and from personal experience is everywhere, perhaps inconsistency really is its killer. That or people with decent sideboards ready to hate it. Also notable is the addition of Ajani Vengeant in 2 of the top 8 lists. He has good control elements and at least 1 relevant ability against any deck (except Scapeshift, maybe, since they only need 4 lands to go off and usually have 7 on the board when they do).

As for Eggs, there are plenty of cards that can hate the deck out of any metagame, but the problem is always hitting them before Eggs wins. A question of how many hate elements you play in your sideboard, really. Will they ban it? Perhaps, it's a very fast combo that is ungodly boring to play against or watch on a stream. I hope they do just because of that, I hate finding another stream to watch just because they're showing Eggs vs anything else, but I'm a fan of banning things, which I know is like the anti-christ on legacy forums.

[Koby]

It's hard to tell from the top 8 results what was around in the room.

I played two Affinity decks, Scapeshift (Scharfman), UWR (Tukeman), Pod, and Burn on Day 2 of the GP. There was quite a bit of UWR, and I got lucky in dodging a whole ton of it until Day 2.

[(nameless one)]

If there were a lot of Affinity, then I can see Tron having a rough time.

Tron usually durdles to turn 3 until it hopefully gets Karn online. Affinity will have you at 4 life at that same turn with 10+ damage coming next turn.

I have yet to see Tron top8 a tournament of this class. It's quite unfortunate since I've been piloting a mono-blue Tron deck.

Also, a turn two Chalice at one > Eggs. Just make sure you win before they find that Echoing Truth

[JDK]

If you want to I could make a two-monthly metagame breakdown like Nihil Credo does for the legacy section.

[kombatkiwi]

post

How does scapeshift go off with 4 lands?
The second ability of Ajani seems pretty relevant against scapeshift because every 3 life you gain is another land that they need to have in play to kill you.

I find that Affinity against Tron basically comes down to whether Tron draws pyroclasm or not.
When I was testing against the MonoU Tron when playing affinity I basically felt that I couldn't lose (maybe they were just bad players though; cockatrice).
It's still a strong deck but I think it's such a well-known factor that people are hating it out.
It's also not a deck that strong players tend to pick up because it's so one-dimensional (no offense meant to anyone).

They better not ban eggs :/
I think it's a cool deck, it shows the wide variety of things that you can do in mtg. I don't think that they will because it's essentially a turn 4+ deck which seems like it fits their criteria of acceptable.

[Kich867]

I'd be willing to ban eggs, it looks like a stones throw away from 4 horseman..

[Fizzeler]

How does scapeshift go off with 4 lands?
The second ability of Ajani seems pretty relevant against scapeshift because every 3 life you gain is another land that they need to have in play to kill you.

I find that Affinity against Tron basically comes down to whether Tron draws pyroclasm or not.
When I was testing against the MonoU Tron when playing affinity I basically felt that I couldn't lose (maybe they were just bad players though; cockatrice).
It's still a strong deck but I think it's such a well-known factor that people are hating it out.
It's also not a deck that strong players tend to pick up because it's so one-dimensional (no offense meant to anyone).

They better not ban eggs :/
I think it's a cool deck, it shows the wide variety of things that you can do in mtg. I don't think that they will because it's essentially a turn 4+ deck which seems like it fits their criteria of acceptable.

Mono U Tron can beat Affinity, since the deck has zero MD outs to Platinum Angel, the problem is living that long

Some notable decks that Day 2'd
Griselbrand.deck
Mono Black Infect
Dredgevine
Aggro Loam
Bogle.deck
Living End
UW Tron

I was happy to see UWR make the finals, but more-so that UW Tron is good in the meta again (as it hasn't been for awhile), no Mono U Tron is

[Koby]

An Affinity deck I lost to was playing Galvanic Blast (Alex Majlaton, of GP Chicago Top8), so yes they do have ways to remove it, or kill you before you get lucky to find it.
Affinity is actually pretty good deck and is an equalizer amongst both the combo and the control (UWR-esque) decks. I don't think people gave it enough consideration going into the GP, and it resulted in Eggs basically getting a few byes. I mean honestly, how are 2 Stony Silence going to be effective as a SB plan?

[kombatkiwi]

Eggs is not even close to 4 Horsemen in terms of derp-ness.

As koby says, most affinity lists play either Dispatch or Galvanic Blast.
The problem with affinity is that its UWR matchup is pretty awful with the infi removal + Electrolyze. Etched Champion is really good there (as in, You Are Not Dealing With This Card Ever) but I'm not sure how many maindeck champions current players are advocating.

The other issue is that it occupies a similar niche to the RG beatdown deck. Both have the plan of "Don't care wut ur doin I get u dead lolol" and both can execute that plan in a reasonable timeframe but affinity is a lot easier to hate out. Affinity is also worse against commonly played cards like Lingering Souls.

I still think it's a good deck just because Cranial Plating is abusurd. People need to fully explore tweaking the numbers on the flex slots and maybe trying some out of the box stuff (Vial, Disciple, Tempered Steel? idk) because the majority of people are still probably playing the successful lists from past events and the metagame now is rather different.

EDIT Lol the guy came 5th at the GP with a pretty stock list scratch that then
You can find lists from the PTQ season of successful affinity decks playing various combinations of everything.
I guess 4 Cranial Plating and some artifacts is all your really need to be in with a chance. To quote Ari Lax (talking about the Tempered Steel deck in standard), you can "just jam four auto-wins and win the other half of your games with 56 ham sandwiches."

[Lord Seth]

I have yet to see Tron top8 a tournament of this class. It's quite unfortunate since I've been piloting a mono-blue Tron deck.

G/R Tron got Top 8 at GP Chicago.

I'm puzzled at the Four Horsemen and Eggs comparisons. I don't really see them as particularly similar. A significantly better comparison would be Spiral Tide.

[Kich867]

G/R Tron got Top 8 at GP Chicago.

I'm puzzled at the Four Horsemen and Eggs comparisons. I don't really see them as particularly similar. A significantly better comparison would be Spiral Tide.

Because I don't exactly understand how the deck isn't considered slow-playing. Spiral Tide is way faster than Eggs if you aren't awful at the deck, take a look at Feline's performance at SCG awhile back, she zipped through the combo pretty quickly.

I'm not going to lie, I don't really know enough about the deck, but from watching it at the recent GP, it seems like the combo relies heavily on drawing into multiple Second Sunrise effects. Which seems to bank on bottom decking them from your graveyard, shuffling, and hoping to hit another one that you put back into the deck.

I don't really see how that differs from Four Horseman banking on being able to infinitely loop milling their deck, making incremental progress per iteration and hoping for a specific result from a randomized set of cards. Compared to Eggs, which seems to also rely on roughly the same thing. Or is there some level of certainty that I missed while watching this? Is there some setup of cards that 100% guarantees he won't fizzle, or can he actually just durdle after shuffling his Second Sunrises into the deck again, whiff on drawing them, and lose?

[Phoenix Ignition]

How does scapeshift go off with 4 lands?
The second ability of Ajani seems pretty relevant against scapeshift because every 3 life you gain is another land that they need to have in play to kill you.

except Scapeshift, maybe, since they only need 4 lands to go off and usually have 7 on the board when they do).

I meant his + ability doesn't affect them since they need 4 lands to tap with and usually 7 lands in play to win. If they hit 8 lands they can deal 36 damage so I guess his - ability is going to be useful if the Jund player can get from below 18 life to above 18 life, in that it buys them 1 additional land drop from Scapeshift.

If you want to I could make a two-monthly metagame breakdown like Nihil Credo does for the legacy section.

This would be cool. We kind of have a similar thread here, but I think more content of that sort would bring more Legacy players into the Modern section. No one really wants to dig through a specific deck thread if they're just starting to get into the format without knowing anything about any metagame


Re: Eggs
Like I said it isn't like the deck is so good it can win through hate. Silence is pretty good maindeck, but honestly you just need a couple hate elements to shut them down completely. Here are some catch all's in Modern:

Blood Moon: Only hurts Ghost Quarters, but that's a major source of their mana the turn they go off. It also helps them thin out non-second sunrise cards. I mention it because it's one of the best sideboard cards in greedy greedy Modern.
Stony Silence: Basically one of the many "bounce this or never go off" cards. Good against Affinity.
Rest in Peace: Another "bounce this or never go off" card that is a good catch-all against random combo decks. Not bad against decks with Deathrite Shaman + Goyf even. (Hi Grizzelbanned!)
Thalia: Not played very much because the decks that would use it generally play so many non-creatures themselves, but still good at slowing Eggs down quite a bit and throwing off worse player's mana math.
Surgical Extraction/Extirpate: Again obvious graveyard hate. Sadly they can usually still go off with 1/2 of their Second Sunrises removed, but hitting a Lotus Bloom is almost game ending.
Gaddock Teeg: Haven't seen this in any decks at all, yet it shuts off 1/2 of their combo and Reshapes. Also stupid good against Tron, and most of the control decks out there. Kind of surprised none of the decks are playing this.
Chalice of the Void: Can significantly hinder them, shutting off their win condition if x=1. Good against a lot of decks in Modern.
Silence: This can cause them to lose if you can time it correctly, but other than that it probably doesn't do much more than buy you a turn and possibly "counter" Lotus Blooms that were suspended.
Ethersworn Canonist: Another "answer or never go off" card.
Mindbreak Trap: If they didn't Silence you, should win you the game.

The problem, as always, is just playing enough of these to draw into them to stall for a significant amount of time.

[Kich867]

Offtopic: Tasteless is the man.

[Koby]

Horseman is non-deterministic, but repeatable.
Eggs is deterministic (at a certain point), but relies on having critical mass of draw effects.

I finally saw the finals, and I don't really see an issue with the Eggs deck. It sucks that inexperienced players will take too long to execute it and running the round way over time. For that reason alone, I could see something implemented to discourage the behavior. However, strategically - the deck is sound for Modern.

[JDK]

I will start with a metagame-breakdown at the beginning of April (February/March breakdown).

@Eggs vs Horsemen
It's different, because you actively draw cards and thin your library. You can state the (changing) size of your hand and library, the amount of "Sunrises" you have to use in order to reach the desired state and don't need to use a possibly indefinitely loop (non-deterministic vs deterministic). It's fairly easy to thin your library out to make the fizzle rate (almost) zero at a certain point (that's why you saw so many pros conceding to it at the PT and GP San Diego).

If you think of stalling, go watch Conley (the GP winner's speed was fine too) play the deck. It's nowhere near Horsemen and speaking of a ban is way too early.

@Phoenix Ignition
Don't forget Aven Mindcensor and Blind Obedience (which is also a second win-condition for Eggs and good in the mirror match).

[Kich867]

I will start with a metagame-breakdown at the beginning of April (February/March breakdown).

@Eggs vs Horsemen
It's different, because you actively draw cards and thin your library. You can state the (changing) size of your hand and library, the amount of "Sunrises" you have to use in order to reach the desired state and don't need to use a possibly indefinitely loop (non-deterministic vs deterministic). It's fairly easy to thin your library out to make the fizzle rate (almost) zero at a certain point (that's why you saw so many pros conceding to it at the PT and GP San Diego).

If you think of stalling, go watch Conley (the GP winner's speed was fine too) play the deck. It's nowhere near Horsemen and speaking of a ban is way too early.

@Phoenix Ignition
Don't forget Aven Mindcensor and Blind Obedience (which is also a second win-condition for Eggs and good in the mirror match).

To me it just seems like they're performing a non-deterministic set of actions in an effort to achieve a specific board state that you can't guarantee you'll reach. Which seems to me the reason that Four Horseman was banned, because it takes forever and you can't guarantee you'll get there.

[Koby]

To me it just seems like they're performing a non-deterministic set of actions in an effort to achieve a specific board state that you can't guarantee you'll reach. Which seems to me the reason that Four Horseman was banned, because it takes forever and you can't guarantee you'll get there.

The difference is that you are changing the game state by sacing baubles and drawing cards. You can reach a game state that is repeatable and loopable and changes the game-state (suppose, dealing 2 damage with Pyrite Spellbomb). Horsemen does not change the game-state by milling. Nothing but the graveyard size, library size, and ordering of both changes with each loop.

Remember, looping according to MTR is a shortcut of repeatable actions with expected outcomes. The sufficiently randomized library is not an expected outcome, and fails the definition of a loop.

[Lord Seth]

Because I don't exactly understand how the deck isn't considered slow-playing. Spiral Tide is way faster than Eggs if you aren't awful at the deck, take a look at Feline's performance at SCG awhile back, she zipped through the combo pretty quickly.

And if you're not awful with Eggs you can go through it reasonably quickly also. You're not making much of an argument here, you're just saying "people who are good at combo decks are faster with them." Which applies to both decks, so what's your point?

I don't really see how that differs from Four Horseman banking on being able to infinitely loop milling their deck, making incremental progress per iteration and hoping for a specific result from a randomized set of cards. Compared to Eggs, which seems to also rely on roughly the same thing. Or is there some level of certainty that I missed while watching this? Is there some setup of cards that 100% guarantees he won't fizzle, or can he actually just durdle after shuffling his Second Sunrises into the deck again, whiff on drawing them, and lose?

Koby answered this better than I could.

[kombatkiwi]

A flipping coins analogy: 4 horsemen is flipping coins until you get 60 heads in a row*. Of course, according to probability theory or whatever this will happen eventually but you cant guarantee that it will happen today or even next week.

Eggs is only going to flip ten coins. If they get more than 3 heads they win. If they don't then their coin blows up.

Your complaint with four horsemen was that it takes forever and they cant guarantee they'll get there which is true for eggs most of the time, but unlike horsemen, eggs comboing off will reach a point where either:
A) eggs won
B) eggs passed the turn

It should be obvious why this is not equivalent to horsemen at all.

If you want the technical explanation then see kobys post.

*Actual probabilities surely different to the random numbers I made up just now

[(nameless one)]

If you want to I could make a two-monthly metagame breakdown like Nihil Credo does for the legacy section.

This would be great

How does scapeshift go off with 4 lands?
The second ability of Ajani seems pretty relevant against scapeshift because every 3 life you gain is another land that they need to have in play to kill you.

I find that Affinity against Tron basically comes down to whether Tron draws pyroclasm or not.
When I was testing against the MonoU Tron when playing affinity I basically felt that I couldn't lose (maybe they were just bad players though; cockatrice).
It's still a strong deck but I think it's such a well-known factor that people are hating it out.
It's also not a deck that strong players tend to pick up because it's so one-dimensional (no offense meant to anyone).

They better not ban eggs :/
I think it's a cool deck, it shows the wide variety of things that you can do in mtg. I don't think that they will because it's essentially a turn 4+ deck which seems like it fits their criteria of acceptable.

I think the Scapeshift player had Goyfs as well.

Also, Tron is too slow for Affinity. Tron is too slow against fast aggro in general.

I play Mono-U Tron and that deck doesn't really deal with aggro that effective. It will just try to stall the game via Repeal/permission until it lands a Wurmcoil or Mindslaver.