[Primer/Deck] Burn

[Brael]

So I have a (probably bad) idea (basically I want Pyrostatic Pillar, Eidolon, and Flame Rift in the deck) and to accomplish it cards are required that dodge those triggers. And I came across Inferno Trap. Has anyone ever played this card? I'm thinking that on the basis of Eidolon triggers being one of the creatures dealing damage to us, it might be easy to fire off.

[elconquistador1985]

Seems like an extraordinary effort to go through to get an instant speed Flame Slash. The trap can't hit players, so you're taking 2 damage from Eidolon plus taking damage from an opponent's creature just to deal 4 to a creature? Seems very bad.

[jrsthethird]

Honestly he probably missed the fact that it can't target players.

[Brael]

Seems like an extraordinary effort to go through to get an instant speed Flame Slash. The trap can't hit players, so you're taking 2 damage from Eidolon plus taking damage from an opponent's creature just to deal 4 to a creature? Seems very bad.

Oh, right you are. Lesson of the story, don't read cards at 3 am. I completely missed that it only hit creatures.

[Chatto]

Top never draws a dead card. (...)

Indeed, but it can be a dead turn. Again, just speaking my mind, and I will test in the near future.

[Brael]

So I have a burn spreadsheet I use in order to quantify a lot of cards and figure out what is and isn't optimal. I've come to the realization though that it's hard coded in some ways that I don't like such as looking at mana fed to it but not mana curves so it only gives the average game but can't give a breakdown of a 3 vs 4 vs 5 turn game and needing some SDT specific calculations. Plus, I really want to set up some variable creature tuning to get different outputs based on how friendly the format is for a creature (eventually this could be extended to matchups). All in all I need to fully revamp it, and coincidentally I'm on a winter break with nothing to do other than catch up on my Steam library and fun self projects. So like the other one I posted a while back (or you can have it again here https://www.dropbox.com/s/xr4i44ypigzjwbt/burn.ods?dl=0) I'll post this one incase anyone is interested, and likes this approach to try and build powerful lists (a warning, I currently assume a best case scenario for creatures, that's obviously not realistic).

But before I start building a new one, if anyone is willing I would like a list of cards to add for comparison. Ideally it should be easy to add cards, Lava Spike and Lightning Bolt are functionally identical in this approach. Others though like Magma Jet, Sensei's Divining Top, and Countryside Crusher require work to make usable, which is why I would like to identify interesting ones and include them early on. These are my cards on the list right now, some of these are a stretch but I went back in the past 5 years of burn looking for cards that saw play.

Recurring damage
Goblin Guide
Monastery Swiftspear
Keldon Marauder
Hellspark Elemental
Grim Lavamancer
Vexing Devil
Sulfuric Vortex
Eidolon of the Great Revel
Black Vise (this was proven bad pretty fast, but for the sake of completeness I'm leaving it on for now)
Mogg Fanatic
Kiln Fiend
Pyrostatic Pillar
Spike Jester

1 shot damage
Fireblast
Flame Javelin
Incinerate
Lightning Bolt
Price of Progress
Chain Lightning
Rift Bolt
Barbarian Ring
Lava Spike
Flame Rift
Tyrant's Choice
Searing Blaze
Searing Blood
Skullcrack
Atarka's Command
Volcanic Fallout
Thunderous Wrath
Destructive Revelry
Boros Charm
Lightning Helix

Library Manipulation
Magma Jet
Countryside Crusher
Sensei's Divining Top

Is there anything I've missed that should be under consideration?

[Offensive_username]

So I have a burn spreadsheet I use in order to quantify a lot of cards and figure out what is and isn't optimal. I've come to the realization though that it's hard coded in some ways that I don't like such as looking at mana fed to it but not mana curves so it only gives the average game but can't give a breakdown of a 3 vs 4 vs 5 turn game and needing some SDT specific calculations. Plus, I really want to set up some variable creature tuning to get different outputs based on how friendly the format is for a creature (eventually this could be extended to matchups). All in all I need to fully revamp it, and coincidentally I'm on a winter break with nothing to do other than catch up on my Steam library and fun self projects. So like the other one I posted a while back (or you can have it again here https://www.dropbox.com/s/xr4i44ypigzjwbt/burn.ods?dl=0) I'll post this one incase anyone is interested, and likes this approach to try and build powerful lists (a warning, I currently assume a best case scenario for creatures, that's obviously not realistic).

But before I start building a new one, if anyone is willing I would like a list of cards to add for comparison. Ideally it should be easy to add cards, Lava Spike and Lightning Bolt are functionally identical in this approach. Others though like Magma Jet, Sensei's Divining Top, and Countryside Crusher require work to make usable, which is why I would like to identify interesting ones and include them early on. These are my cards on the list right now, some of these are a stretch but I went back in the past 5 years of burn looking for cards that saw play.

Recurring damage
Goblin Guide
Monastery Swiftspear
Keldon Marauder
Hellspark Elemental
Grim Lavamancer
Vexing Devil
Sulfuric Vortex
Eidolon of the Great Revel
Black Vise (this was proven bad pretty fast, but for the sake of completeness I'm leaving it on for now)
Mogg Fanatic
Kiln Fiend
Pyrostatic Pillar
Spike Jester

1 shot damage
Fireblast
Flame Javelin
Incinerate
Lightning Bolt
Price of Progress
Chain Lightning
Rift Bolt
Barbarian Ring
Lava Spike
Flame Rift
Tyrant's Choice
Searing Blaze
Searing Blood
Skullcrack
Atarka's Command
Volcanic Fallout
Thunderous Wrath
Destructive Revelry
Boros Charm
Lightning Helix

Library Manipulation
Magma Jet
Countryside Crusher
Sensei's Divining Top

Is there anything I've missed that should be under consideration?

Would you please add Abbot of Keral Keep to the creature list? I am curious if it is up-to-snuff...

Also, is it possible to calculate for Fork or Reverberate?

[Jon]

Why do you need a formula to figure out if a card is dumpster? Play the deck and you will see you never want Abbot.


I have fat fingers and I am posting from my iPhone.

[MGB]

Why do you need a formula to figure out if a card is dumpster? Play the deck and you will see you never want Abbot.


I have fat fingers and I am posting from my iPhone.

Abbott of Kheral Keep is like a red Snapcaster mage. Are you kidding me?

[paeng4983]

Abbott of Kheral Keep is like a red Snapcaster mage. Are you kidding me?

Well, almost... except if it hits a land. ^_^

[Brael]

Would you please add Abbot of Keral Keep to the creature list? I am curious if it is up-to-snuff...

Also, is it possible to calculate for Fork or Reverberate?

Fork and Reverberate are a bit more difficult, I'll see if I can come up with an approach for them, they're very reliant on what else is in your deck so I might not come up with a good approach for that. My instinct is to count it as 3 damage (4 for a 2 damage spell+Fork is too unreliable), but that puts it in the classic "worse than Incinerate" territory, which perhaps is where it belongs. Even when you're getting 4 off of it I have to ask the question, why would you run a conditional 4 damage spell when we have so many unconditional ones to pick from? It seems to me that in order to make it work you need to be getting 5+ damage from it every time.

That said I'll include Abbot of Keral Keep, I'll also include Dualcaster Mage because I think that comes closer to doing what you want Abbot to do. Though I'm not all that optimistic on either one. I think Hellspark Elemental does what Dualcaster is trying to do at the same mana investment and Abbot is just too slow.

Well, almost... except if it hits a land. ^_^

Well, there is Top to manipulate what Abbot hits (and you can always tap top to ensure there's something to hit) but assuming you have 3 mana total. You're using a point to set up Abbot (probably on turn 2-3, meaning no 2 mana spell that turn), 2 to cast Abbot on the following turn (leaving 1 left for that turn), getting a free 1 drop, and casting that for 3 damage. If Abbot doesn't swing you'll have spent 4 mana to get 3 damage, and if it can swing on the following turn you'll have spent 4 mana to get 7 damage over 3 turns (assuming 2 prowess triggers). That just doesn't feel very fast or efficient to me, especially since it's cutting you off of so many 2 drops that give you faster returns.

[jrsthethird]

Dualcaster could be better in a meta with lots of other Burn decks, RUG Delver, and Jund (i.e. Bolt decks). Late game it can copy a Brainstorm or whatever or help punch an Eidolon through countermagic. With our own spells though, Abbot requires a minimum 3 mana to do anything, but Dualcaster requires 4. That seems a bit much to be reliable.

Has anyone done hard testing with it?

[Brael]

Dualcaster could be better in a meta with lots of other Burn decks, RUG Delver, and Jund (i.e. Bolt decks). Late game it can copy a Brainstorm or whatever or help punch an Eidolon through countermagic. With our own spells though, Abbot requires a minimum 3 mana to do anything, but Dualcaster requires 4. That seems a bit much to be reliable.

Has anyone done hard testing with it?

I've never tested it, 3 mana for a creature without haste is a really tough sell (personally it's one of my favorite cards, just not in this deck). There are ways to play with the cost a bit such as setting up a Rift Bolt or a Fireblast and then using it, but it comes back to the same problem Reverberate has, if I'm doing all this setup for a 0 damage body, in order to get 3-4 free damage, why not just play another 4 damage spell and save some mana?

[Offensive_username]

Fork and Reverberate are a bit more difficult, I'll see if I can come up with an approach for them, they're very reliant on what else is in your deck so I might not come up with a good approach for that. My instinct is to count it as 3 damage (4 for a 2 damage spell+Fork is too unreliable), but that puts it in the classic "worse than Incinerate" territory, which perhaps is where it belongs. Even when you're getting 4 off of it I have to ask the question, why would you run a conditional 4 damage spell when we have so many unconditional ones to pick from? It seems to me that in order to make it work you need to be getting 5+ damage from it every time.

That said I'll include Abbot of Keral Keep, I'll also include Dualcaster Mage because I think that comes closer to doing what you want Abbot to do. Though I'm not all that optimistic on either one. I think Hellspark Elemental does what Dualcaster is trying to do at the same mana investment and Abbot is just too slow.



Well, there is Top to manipulate what Abbot hits (and you can always tap top to ensure there's something to hit) but assuming you have 3 mana total. You're using a point to set up Abbot (probably on turn 2-3, meaning no 2 mana spell that turn), 2 to cast Abbot on the following turn (leaving 1 left for that turn), getting a free 1 drop, and casting that for 3 damage. If Abbot doesn't swing you'll have spent 4 mana to get 3 damage, and if it can swing on the following turn you'll have spent 4 mana to get 7 damage over 3 turns (assuming 2 prowess triggers). That just doesn't feel very fast or efficient to me, especially since it's cutting you off of so many 2 drops that give you faster returns.

I'd think Fork and Reverberate would average out to 3.5 or so. You shouldn't run any burn spell below 3 damage, so that's the bottom end for copying. You'll also have Fireblast and potentially fringe cards (Like a miracle'd Thunderous Wrath) that will push the average up slightly.

On a non-damage (and therefore not part of the equation) note they also provide a bit of flexible reach in some aspects, but that is unreliable since it depends on what you're playing against.

[Ace/Homebrew]

I'd think Fork and Reverberate would average out to 3.5 or so. You shouldn't run any burn spell below 3 damage, so that's the bottom end for copying.

You've used all the cards in your hand to get your opponent to 1 life. Their turn just ended with a massive attack and you are staring at lethal damage if you let them untap. You untap your cards, breeze through your upkeep, and draw... Fork.

Well, good game.

[Brael]

I'd think Fork and Reverberate would average out to 3.5 or so. You shouldn't run any burn spell below 3 damage, so that's the bottom end for copying. You'll also have Fireblast and potentially fringe cards (Like a miracle'd Thunderous Wrath) that will push the average up slightly.

On a non-damage (and therefore not part of the equation) note they also provide a bit of flexible reach in some aspects, but that is unreliable since it depends on what you're playing against.

Besides the fact that they do nothing on their own, Fork and Reverberate each cost 2 mana, the 4 damage spells also cost 2 mana (aside from Fireblast). You're much more likely only going to have 1 mana to spend which means you're going to copy a 3 damage spell which pushes it much closer to 3 than to 4.

Thunderous Wrath's big issue is it being in your opening hand. Of the times you draw it, 70% of the time (in a 4 turn game) it will be in your opening 7. In order to push that to 50% you need to see 14 cards or +4 over what you naturally see. In order to get that to 25% you need to see 28 cards. or +18 cards. At being dead 25% of the time it's still only worth 3.75 damage on average. In order to make it worthwhile you probably need to be seeing in the 40 card range which I'm not sure is possible.

[Brael]

Finished the sheet
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6nwrdp1g9n...burn2.ods?dl=0

I ended up not including Thunderous Wrath, Fork, or Reverberate into the sheet. If we get something in the future that makes them good they'll go back in. Basically, they were excluded because they don't fit into time constraints. The approach involves setting the turn you want to win, how much damage you need to deal, and how many cards you see. The typical rate there is 10 cards for a turn 4 win, though I actually use 9 cards in order to account for the worst case scenario of a mulligan to 6 on the play. Basically what this means is you have 3 draw steps... turns 2, 3, and 4 to hit Thunderous Wrath. At any other time it's a dead card, so it's a little too narrow. Fork and Reverberate are strictly worse than Incinerate at 3 damage, and when copying a 4 damage spell, they need 4 mana which goes past the mana limitations I'm assuming (1-2-2-3 for land drops). Thus, as a good play it would only be a turn 5 or 6 play when we're looking to win on 4.

The biggest changes are that creatures are calculated a little more conservatively, and I added support for Tops and other library manipulation, plus a few more cells to easily change whatever estimates I'm using, because some of this is subjective. The main things I noticed is that it's really difficult to work Lavamancer+Top into the same deck and if you want to do that you have to make sacrifices elsewhere such as in anti lifegain effects like Sulfuric Vortex, which is a sacrifice I'm willing to make since I assume I need to deal 24 damage in the first place. Recalculating creatures actually made Eidolon look better than it already was.

The recurring sources of damage that came in at above 3 damage/card and above a 3:1 standard efficiency (thus putting out damage, and doing it cheap) were:
Eidolon of the Great Revel - 3.933 ratio
Pyrostatic Pillar - 3.7 ratio
Monastery Swiftspear - 3.675 ratio
Goblin Guide - 3.35 ratio
Vexing Devil - 3.132 ratio

Also worth pointing out, Abbot of Keral Keep looks like it outperforms any 4 for 2 spell (better ratio, higher damage/card) but it requires a high top count (probably maxing out on them) and a lower curve than normal. Plus it doesn't play well with Swiftspear, getting enough Prowess triggers on an uncontested Swiftspear is actually a very real issue, and there's the issue that Eidolon/Pillar are just way more powerful so you're giving those up to play Abbot (remember, Abbot needs a low curve). I do think there's a way to make it work, I'm just not sure what that way is or if it's better than the cheap haste creatures, due to the fetches/tops it needs it's not even a budget option for those without Guides.

This is the 60 I'm considering trying next time, I haven't settled on a SB yet.

Land 19
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Scalding Tarn
1 Arid Mesa
1 Taiga
6 Mountain
1 Barbarian Ring

Creatures 12
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
3 Eidolon of the Great Revel
1 Grim Lavamancer

Spells 25
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Chain Lightning
2 Rift Bolt
4 Fireblast
4 Price of Progress
3 Atarka's Command
4 Searing Blaze

Enchantment 1
1 Pyrostatic Pillar

Artifact 3
3 Sensei's Divining Top

3 tops might be high, but I'm really curious to see if the theory matches up with reality. The Pyrostatic Pillar is because I needed slightly more Prowess triggers to make Swiftspear good enough and it might be nice to have a non dying copy of that effect. One thing that makes me ok with 3 tops is that it's not too hard to shuffle extras away. Also, 2 tops with a Swiftspear gives you 3 pumps/turn (assuming 3 lands) when there's no other ways to spend your mana.

This build I'm trying just barely hits my damage threshold preferences and comes in just slightly overbudget on mana but I think tops can solve the mana issue since we're talking about less than 1 point across the whole decks cost. That's something I'll need to play with, how reliably can tops make our mana curve 1-2-3-3 or 1-2-3-4 rather than 1-2-2-3. If a single top activation can consistently get the third land drop a turn sooner we break even on mana, and if it gets us the 4th land on curve as well we net 1 mana minimum or 2-3 in a longer game, or again break even at worst if it takes a second activation.

[echofish]

How is this even possible? This is the worst burn list I have ever seen: http://tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=19190&iddeck=145861
Spark Elemental, Shoal, Cave-in (and Eidolon main), Wrath, Ancient Grudge (without access to green)

[Brael]

How is this even possible? This is the worst burn list I have ever seen: http://tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=19190&iddeck=145861
Spark Elemental, Shoal, Cave-in (and Eidolon main), Wrath, Ancient Grudge (without access to green)

Variance happens.

[MrMonday]

Hey guys, my main Legacy deck is Dredge, but I had Modern Burn and figured that I'd spend the extra $100 or so to grab the pieces for the Legacy version since it seems to be much more competitive in the current meta. However, I've run into a bit of a problem with tweaking the number of certain cards. I've read the last few pages, but I figured I'd throw my questions out here to get some more specific advice.

For reference:

Lands (20)
1 Barbarian Ring
7 Mountain
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Scalding Tarn

Creatures (14)
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Spells (26)
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Price of Progress
4 Fireblast
2 Searing Blaze
4 Chain Lightning
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

My questions:

1. Searing Blaze, how many? I've seen anywhere from two to four and I've settled on two, but I'm not sure about this. People have been trying to set up a Legacy group in my local area and I know one guy is on Infect and one on Jund, which makes me want to go up to three, but I'm kinda scared of running into decks like Storm or Miracles (which one guy is likely on) where it's completely dead. Is three a better choice?
2. Barbarian Ring, same deal. I'm on one right now but I've seen some people go up to two. To be honest, I don't like dealing damage to myself in racing situations against decks like UR Delver and whatnot and I don't like further reducing the number of mountains in my deck. If I do add another, would I have to change around my land numbers to make sure that I still have 7-8 mountains in my deck for Fireblast, or is that going a bit too deep?
3. Monastery Swiftspear, yay or nay? I know this is a bit of a touchy subject, but I've seen a lot of lists running the monk and I've come to side with them after seeing how great she is in Modern. It seems to me that the consensus is yes, run her, but I could be totally wrong here.
4. On a related note, is Sulfuric Vortex good in the maindeck right now? It seems to me that there's a bit of a split between lists running Swiftspear and no Vortex and vice versa.

Hopefully these aren't too stupid.