Modern Metagame

[JDK]

Modern has become quite the interesting format with a lot of different archetypes. In order to keep track of which of those decks are doing well and which don't I thought about posting a breakdown of the meta-game. Like Nihil Credo does for Legacy, but every two months instead of every single one, because Modern isn't as popular and has fewer tournaments going on except for PTQ seasons, but I think there is a need for a somewhat current breakdown in order to obtain the best ratio of relevance and accuracy (which sets this one apart from Feline's 'Tier'-thread and TheCouncil's monthly rankings).

February/March 2013


Fix: "Punkte" means score


Major Tournaments:
Grand Prix San Diego 2013 - 17/03/2013 - Winner: Second Breakfast

As you can see UWR Midrange is by far the most popular and successful archetype followed by Jund and Birthing Pod (Kiki-Jiki). Twin, Affinity and RG Tron are the follow-up candidates, although Zoo has made a comeback thanks to the printing of Burning-Tree Emissary and some others (e.g. Experiment One).


Source: TheCouncil's monthly rankings

[Koby]

Good work H3llsp4wn, this is really helpful to gauge where Modern sits right now.

I just wish WotC would stop banning stuff and let the format stabilize.

Or just reprint Force of Will. Either solution is fine with me.

This is so helpful to the discussion of the hard work H3llsp4wn did. Thanks for contributing meaningfully.

[Arsenal]

Looking at UWR (I also play it), I don't see any one piece that you'd off the bat say "way too powerful". Maybe a case could be made for SCM, but still I'd say "no". If UWR continues to do well, you think Wizards will ban it/cripple it like they did with Jund?

[Phoenix Ignition]

Sorry, what are the axes on this graph?

Is it just decks that made the top 8? If so it's hard to say that UWR is doing the best as field saturation can make even the worse decks have a high frequency of placement.

I'm also wondering where UWR aggro is? I would have assumed that would be a different category since it functions pretty differently than UWR Midrange (I'm thinking midrange is more the Kitchen Finks + Restoration Angel, and aggro is Steppe Lynx or Goblin Guides). If they actually are combined right now I think that WUR Midrange would still be the top played deck, but not by nearly as much.

I don't really see a reason to ban anything UWR decks right now, but I'd love to see some win percentages on them compared to the rest of the format.

[JDK]

I realized the table says "Punkte" (german for 'points' or 'score'). The graph is just a visual representation of the table, to illustrate the difference in points. The points are given by TheCouncil's "Tier deck"-system:

This application it's a way to determine the tier decks of a selected month. This system gives each archetype one point for each round of the tournament based on it's asistance (note by me: probably 'appearance') and one point for each round won in the top 8.

Is it just decks that made the top 8? If so it's hard to say that UWR is doing the best as field saturation can make even the worse decks have a high frequency of placement.

That pretty much irrelevant if you want to determine the decks you have to face in a tournament rather than the "best" deck. That's why I said "most popular and successful" and not "best".

A quick search for Modern decks with Delver of Secrets and (Goblin Guide or Steppe Lynx) will show you, that there are non listed under "WUR Midrange" in the relevant period of time. However, those decks from the glorious UWR Delver days are actually in the same category. I guess the admin of TheCouncil just renamed the category after Delver lost it's place and completely got replaced by the Midrange approach. As long as Delver doesn't make a comeback, it's no problem.

If you want win percentages you have to look out for Wizards tournament reports (PT, eventually GPs).

[DragoFireheart]

WUR aggro is different from WUR mid-range.

The former has delver and lynx but hasn't been the popular choice lately. WUR-midrange has been the deck putting up most of the numbers. Geist, Snappy, Clique, lots of burn and counter spells seems to be the general shape of the deck.

[(nameless one)]

What surprises me is that Jund is still the "second best" deck.

I know it's still a deck post-banning but to really keep up like that, I guess BBE is way over the top.

What saddens me is that U/R storm isn't even a factor in the meta.

[Arsenal]

I'm not surprised at Jund. Jund's shell is still strong, and it's power level:manacurve is better than 90% of what other decks are trying to do at turn 1, turn 2, turn 3.

[DragoFireheart]

Please tell us more about things everyone knows about. Your input to the discussion is as valuable as ever.

How about this then:

Delver is very bad in Modern. You have little to no mana denial to capitalize on him, most decks run far too much removal for him to stick around, and you don't have Brainstorm to ensure that he's a 3/2 on turn 2.

You won't have to worry about him coming back to Modern anytime soon and screwing up TC deck database. I seriously don't know why decks thought using him in the past was a good idea. Cards that work in one format are terrible in another.

[DragoFireheart]

What surprises me is that Jund is still the "second best" deck.

I know it's still a deck post-banning but to really keep up like that, I guess BBE is way over the top.

It has Tarmogoyf, Abrupt Decay, Deathrite Shaman, and Dark Confidant in it. It's not that surprising that it's still doing well as it's just a "good stuff" deck.

[JDK]

How about this then:

Delver is very bad in Modern. You have little to no mana denial to capitalize on him, most decks run far too much removal for him to stick around, and you don't have Brainstorm to ensure that he's a 3/2 on turn 2.

You won't have to worry about him coming back to Modern anytime soon and screwing up TC deck database. I seriously don't know why decks thought using him in the past was a good idea. Cards that work in one format are terrible in another.

Delver is not per se bad in Modern, but way below the value he has in Legacy. The metagame is shifting and Delver.dec was a very strong contender back in early to mid 2012.

Anyway, your point is?

@(nameless one)
I could still cry at the Seething Song ban, but we have to move on. ^^

[CardboardCrack]

How about this then:

Delver is very bad in Modern. You have little to no mana denial to capitalize on him, most decks run far too much removal for him to stick around, and you don't have Brainstorm to ensure that he's a 3/2 on turn 2.

You won't have to worry about him coming back to Modern anytime soon and screwing up TC deck database. I seriously don't know why decks thought using him in the past was a good idea. Cards that work in one format are terrible in another.

I mostly agree. Serum Visions is the only decent 1 mana blue spell to help make Delver of Secrets and even this is not ideal.

Great statistics. I was really surprised because this is not the metagame I see on MTGO.

[feline]

Gosh I love stuff like this, thank you H3llsp4wn!

[DragoFireheart]

Anyway, your point is?

My point is that WUR decks with delver/lynx are significantly different from WUR mid-range decks and not just a couple cards different. It might seem like an obvious point to make, but making the point that Devler is very bad in Modern is one worth making. Lynx in all honesty probably had a much larger role in making the deck good.

Also, Geist, but he goes without saying. Being immune to 90% of the formats removal is a nice plus.

[JDK]

My point is that WUR decks with delver/lynx are significantly different from WUR mid-range decks and not just a couple cards different.

No one denies that. I was just talking about the categories used on TC.

@feline
You're welcome.

[(nameless one)]

Not crying about Seething Song.

I couldn't care less as a run Tron in Modern

[DragoFireheart]

No one denies that. I was just talking about the categories used on TC.

@feline
You're welcome.

And that data is flat out wrong. TC decks screwed up because (IIRC) it does include WUR delver decks in the UWR Mid range group.

[Lemnear]

And that data is flat out wrong. TC decks screwed up because (IIRC) it does include WUR delver decks in the UWR Mid range group.

Don't blame them. Not even WotC gives a fuck about categorisation or Deck names (See TES/ANT)

[DragoFireheart]

Don't blame them. Not even WotC gives a fuck about categorisation or Deck names (See TES/ANT)

Well someone should care. Otherwise, it makes it harder to discuss deck archtypes effectively and accurately record which decks are performing well. It's like someone going to the Esperblade deck and claiming their burn deck is also esperblade because they shoved a SFM and a swamp into it (extreme example).

[JDK]

And that data is flat out wrong. TC decks screwed up because (IIRC) it does include WUR delver decks in the UWR Mid range group.

I know, reading is very hard, but I kindly advise you to try reading my previous post:

A quick search for Modern decks with Delver of Secrets and (Goblin Guide or Steppe Lynx) will show you, that there are non listed under "WUR Midrange" in the relevant period of time. However, those decks from the glorious UWR Delver days are actually in the same category. I guess the admin of TheCouncil just renamed the category after Delver lost it's place and completely got replaced by the Midrange approach. As long as Delver doesn't make a comeback, it's no problem.

So no, the data is not flat out wrong.