Metagame analysis for GP DC

[Dzra]

-Identity Nemesis (or whatever its English name ends up being) will perform well, but it's highly doubtful that this new tech will take down the GP.

I agree that it probably won't be taking down the tournament (unless it happens to revive Deathblade), but I do think it's worth noting that a lot of people are going to take a look at Identity Nemesis and think about sleeving their Fish deck up again. I'd expect a slightly higher saturation of Fish because of this. Luckily we have the BOM beforehand to actually gauge the effects Identity Nemesis might cause.

[Megadeus]

You finally stop bringing Devastating Dreams and I decide on hoops league instead. Failure.

Most of the decks in that top 10 can't beat Moat. Those that don't care about Moat can't beat Trinisphere or Chalice 1. Those that might have a prayer if I drop a Trinisphere off the SnT can't beat the Armageddon.

Decision: Moat Stompy.

Yeah I didn't feel like thinking. But I did find out the power of loxodon smiter plus double exalted. Spoiler alert, it's pretty solid.

And with moat stompy you get to just rape the budget decks in the first few rounds. Half because your noob opponent doesn't know how to fight you and half because decks can't actually beat exalted angel

[JPoJohnson]

If you're gonna play White Stax of sorts, you might as well play Ravages of War over Armageddon

[Barbed Blightning]

Hey all, I wrote up this piece on analyzing the mid-atlantic regional meta in hopes of predicting the types of decks you might expect to see at the top tables in DC. I suppose DC and Philly are close enough that you could also use it to help prepare for Legacy Champs.

http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/20...game-analysis/

Beautiful analysis. Also makes me happy to be making Reanimator.

[ziggy_stardust]

I made a bit of a mention of this before, so I figured I'd ask, would people be interested in seeing an analysis like this done on the national level (perhaps also using a weighted method where weight is assigned by distance from DC)? Maybe a comparison of national data vs regional data? Or do you think the marginal value gained from a national analysis over my initial regional analysis wouldn't be worth the extra effort? If people are interested, I can look into it for next week (decided to go with something a little lighter for this week).

[Lt. Quattro]

I made a bit of a mention of this before, so I figured I'd ask, would people be interested in seeing an analysis like this done on the national level (perhaps also using a weighted method where weight is assigned by distance from DC)? Maybe a comparison of national data vs regional data? Or do you think the marginal value gained from a national analysis over my initial regional analysis wouldn't be worth the extra effort? If people are interested, I can look into it for next week (decided to go with something a little lighter for this week).

Yes please.

[Dzra]

I made a bit of a mention of this before, so I figured I'd ask, would people be interested in seeing an analysis like this done on the national level (perhaps also using a weighted method where weight is assigned by distance from DC)? Maybe a comparison of national data vs regional data? Or do you think the marginal value gained from a national analysis over my initial regional analysis wouldn't be worth the extra effort? If people are interested, I can look into it for next week (decided to go with something a little lighter for this week).

Yeah, I'd be interested in seeing that if it isn't a ridiculous amount of trouble.

[Higgs]

I've done a similar analysis for the global meta using the tcdecks data. The funny thing is, it is not telling anything that we already don't know..

The data set is tcdecks results between Sep 2012-Sep 2013:


Accumulated means straight up addition of normalized points. Weighted means Sep 2013 results have a factor of 1 and Sep 2012 results have a factor of 0.1 (everything in between decreasing with the corresponding rate of decay).

[Kayradis]

Great analysis.
Im probably gonna work with those numbers since we start our playtesting for DC tonight (I need to get rid of all that beer in the fridge, so there's gonna be a lot of testing!!!)

Thanks for all the work you put into that and stay clear of my Cratherhoof in DC!

[ziggy_stardust]

Here are the results on a national level. I've also included a link to the spreadsheet with the raw data in case anyone felt like playing around with it and doing their own analysis.

http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/20...game-analysis/

[Kayradis]

Once again. Good analysis.

We are finishing the prep for DC this weekend. Time to crush!

[ziggy_stardust]

Once again. Good analysis.

We are finishing the prep for DC this weekend. Time to crush!

almost out of beer?

[Kayradis]

Getting there! hahaha!
2 Flats to go!

[ziggy_stardust]

I figure most of the people in these forums are seasoned Legacy players, but if anyone feels like they need a cheat sheet to what some of the more popular (as defined by my earlier analysis) decks in the format do and how to identify them quickly, here it is:

http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/20...heat-sheet-dc/

If you are a Legacy expert, this probably won't tell you too many things you didn't already know, but I figured I'd put it out there.

This is not an meant to be an exhaustive list, but because I took tomorrow off and my flight to DC isn't until mid-day, maybe I'll add a few more archetypes, later tonight.

[Lord Seth]

I figure most of the people in these forums are seasoned Legacy players, but if anyone feels like they need a cheat sheet to what some of the more popular (as defined by my earlier analysis) decks in the format do and how to identify them quickly, here it is:

http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/20...heat-sheet-dc/

If you are a Legacy expert, this probably won't tell you too many things you didn't already know, but I figured I'd put it out there.

This is not an meant to be an exhaustive list, but because I took tomorrow off and my flight to DC isn't until mid-day, maybe I'll add a few more archetypes, later tonight.

You should edit your Death & Taxes bit. You suggest that Phyrexian Revoker can be used to name fetchlands, but it can't--it can't name land cards. You're getting it mixed up with Pithing Needle.

[ziggy_stardust]

You should edit your Death & Taxes bit. You suggest that Phyrexian Revoker can be used to name fetchlands, but it can't--it can't name land cards. You're getting it mixed up with Pithing Needle.

Oh wooow, good catch there. Embarrassing lol

[twndomn]

I've done a similar analysis for the global meta using the tcdecks data. The funny thing is, it is not telling anything that we already don't know..

The data set is tcdecks results between Sep 2012-Sep 2013:

These data are deceiving. I expect the opposite regarding Blade control due to True-Name-Nemesis. That card is the latest fad, people can't wait to put equipment on it. In time, the data will reflect that.

[rockout]

Do you like the draw tables?

I lol'd so hard.