I have also great troubles beating Miracles...
For the strategy Lemnear was suggesting: This is a good starter, but remember that a good Miracles player will float a 2 on the top of his library and wont counter your 1cc spells with balance when running out of mana to spin. Then you are forced to have the Empty/Tendrils in hand, which is more unlikely than having a tutor. Even PiF does not help here.
This Matchup is also a reason why i prefer 1 Grim Tutor in my list, since he can power through a CB, since CMC3 is afaik the casting cost they have the least in their deck, and it has been of good service to me lately.
Have you counted the number of 2cc cards in an average Miracles list? Floating a 1cc + a 2cc spell in the top three is far from guaranteed. It's your best shot once they stick CB+Top without you being able to combo before that. I don't see how Grim Tutor would be any help if they can counter all your Dark Rituals and Cabal Rituals anyways like you implied
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My point was: They don't need to float 1 AND 2 if they have a 2 in the top 3. It has been my experience, that if they are low on mana and have a CMC2 in their top 3, you are not going to win, even if you play 4 rituals, LED and whatever, because they float 2 and sit on that forever.
And CMC 3 is rarer than CMC2, that is for sure, so my point here is: it is very likely that after they are running out of mana they will focus on 2, so you can win with Grim where you otherwise wouldn't have.
But it is like many discussions concerning Storm: If... when... you need to.... just do this... : if you don't have it, all theory is nonsense.
I can tell you that it's not easy, as a Miracles player who played this matchup a lot (Berlin meta consist mostly of control and combo). But Carsten Kötter and Kai Thiele both proofed me that it's possible ;)
You have basically four ways:
- Have a protected kill Turn 1 or 2
- Play unexpected Bombs early (Dark Confidant/Young Pyromancer/Carpet of Flowers)
- Have enough protection while they haven't CB/Top online.
- If they have CB/Top online: Exploit the stack to get them short on mana
The first two options are a no-brainer but work anyways (It is unlikely that they have much countermagic online in the first turns, even if they board 9-12 cards), the last one is the tricky one. Try to go off when they are short on mana and you have enough mana on the table. If they are unexperienced they will give you good windows of opportunity because they play lot's of cantrips/top activations or ideally Jace in their round to filter their hand. The idea is to play many spells with idealy different CMC on the stack so that they use a lot of mana to hopefully counter some spells. For example:
You start with Infernal Tutor, they put CB trigger on stack and activate top to rearrange. You let the top ability resolve and put an Dark Ritual on top of the stack, they put a CB trigger on stack and want to rearrange, you let that resolve and cast a Cabal Ritual...
There are a lot of ways how you could do it and they don't work on any opponent as well but it can work to win this way against CB/Top. Well, at least if they have only CB/Top on Board and not 1 or 2 more hate cards.
That should be enough (I SB AdN, x PN and Extirpate), Manaless is one of the best MUs and can be very frustrating for them imo, you start with a timewalk, the can't kill you T1, every your discard is a timewalk (preferably GP and Street wraith), every their SB interaction is a timewalk... basicaly be aware of Leyline, SE and posibilities of U version
until they have 2 and 1 on top and 4+mana nothing is lost and game si on and there are windows of opportunity, after that chances are pretty slim, basicaly reduced to players making mistakes like going for Jace and other unwise mana spending, value hunters not countering 1CC being too secure with 2CC on top... natural storm into EtW if you have it (actually interesting gamble if you want to play around 4CC), maybe Ad nauseam into natural storm if they don't have 0 and other marginal stuff like GT an all 0... waiting for EtA can be long but you'll find you about their version by then
MKM was very disheartening experience regarding Top under balance for me, I'll try more G+top in the future (I like splitting with KGrip) but I still prefer PN for now (landing SDT an PN is the same problem), I don't know the MU/approach might got worse due to DTT in crucial moments anyway, I don't know, I can't claim to have much experience with City of Solitude... Good luck in Milan, I'm not going this time...
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maybe it's a personal issue, but I don't see the point of 2 SDT to find 3 Decays rather than running 4-5 removals from the start especially in regards to other possible annoyances across the table like Chalice, RIP, Thorn & Co. which not necessarily give you the time or opportunity to dig for the 3 Decays.
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Another question which came to my mind while testing:
Game1, unknown opponent you are on the play and have a sure T1 Kill in hand. You have no idea what opponent is playing, and you have no Discard or Probe to see if the coast is clear or to clear the coast. Do you go for it?
Different situation: From your scouting you know that your opponent is playing a Force of Will deck, but your opponent does probably not know what he is up against. Do you go for it?
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Question turned around:
In which case would you NOT go for it on the play Turn 1 without seeing opponent's hand? Or do you always go for it? =)
1, in vacuum 99% of games 2, depends what deck he plays, what T1 kill I have, how opp behaves and what I think of him, still about 9/10
You don't always go for it, but it's a pretty good rule of thumb. Basically what you should be asking yourself is "Am I more likely to win if the game goes longer than I am right now?"
The answer is almost always "no" once you allow your opponent to start using their mana to cantrip into protection and making Daze/Pierce/Stifle/Thoughtseize live cards for them. Given that turn 1 kill hands are virtually all mana + action and leave little room for cantrips, your draw is unlikely to improve significantly within the first few turns. I suspect there are situations in which it is correct, but I'm unable to conceive of one off the top of my head that doesn't involve at least some knowledge of my opponent's decklist.
Thanks for the replies.
I am also always going for it on Turn 1 when possible. Just wanted to know how others handle this.
What I also learned from talking to some opponents was, that even if someone playing Force in his deck knows what he is up against, they won't mulligan till they find a Force, because chances that we have the T1-Kill are statistically pretty low (ANT, not TES). Is even more true since people moved AN to the board and lists became more grindy.
Thanks for the replies! I was wondering if Surgical/Extirpate is a better option than Leyline of the Void, and why? Seems like mulligan to Leyline is just a game win against a lot of GY-based decks.
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- Leyline is bad with AN, which is good vs combo decks.
- This deck runs a lot of cantrips, which are better with hate that you don't need in your opener.
- You need to run 4 Leylines if you want to go for the mull-to-leyline plan, which is a lot of slots.
- It makes for awkward mulligan decisions.
Surgical & Extirpate are both playable with their own upsides, for your issues I'd just run 2 Surgicals (but manaless always seemed like a good MU to me, unlike LED dredge with its speed).
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With regards to Leyline being bad with Ad Nauseam, you could always run Helm of Obedience alongside Leyline. Also opens up Ill-Gotten Gains as an engine. We did that in Grinding Station ages ago, although I have to admit that Pascal liked it much more than I did, I always felt Ad Nauseam plus Grafdigger's Cage, Tormod's Crypt or Surgical Extraction was more reliable. I do like Ill-Gotten Gains in combo mirrors though.
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Got rekt by dredge tonight. He had the nut turn 1 in game 2 making 16 dudes and double therapy me. Game three he had a pretty nut hand while I had to mull to five. Luckily I had surgical to hit both of his Grave Trolls off of his LED but I didnt find enough lands and was a red source short of killing him on turn 3.
Then got a savage beating from Esper Helm/Leyline. Beat him game one from stripping his brainstorm. Game two he has the nut after a few turns. I Therapy, he flusterstorms, I duress, he forces, I cast rituals, cast IT, he spell snares, I draw with top, cast Tendrils, he has a second Flusterstorm. Yep. That's basically how my night went.
Tried out Bolts though and they seemed fine. It was nice against the deck with Meddling Mage when he couldn't really profitably stop me from killing his mages. It ended up being a pretty combo heavy night though. What do you guys think about High Tide? Do we just board in the Swarms and call it a day? What about the new Omni deck? Same principle?
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