I understand that all the options are bad, I'm just not seeing how this line is better than our other not great lines.
So we cast Past in Flames with one black floating. They respond by surgicalling dark ritual. You double probe, so now we have two cards in hand and storm count is 5 (so natural tendrils is lethal, since our opponent is at 12). Those two cards have to somehow generate 3 additional mana and find tendrils. I'm seeing a few ways to do that.
1) Draw Tendrils of Agony (1of) and Lotus Petal (2of)
2) Draw Lotus Petal (2of) and Cabal Ritual (2of)
3) Draw LED (2of)
4) Draw Lotus Petal (2of), cast Ponder from graveyard, find LED (2of)
So basically you have to hit the same cards you would have to hit if you cast Ad Nauseam, except with Ad Nauseam you have 15 life to find them and with the Past in Flames line you have 2 cards.
Edit: if you get LP and flashback PIF and they SE targeting LED, then you win. Flashback PIF first and this will maybe force this response.
Can you even beat Surgical if you go with Ad Nauseam? You theoretically can, it just requires a combination of a bunch of cards that I'm too lazy to go through right now (sorta interesting though).
If you go with Past in Flames float B and they Surgical DRit, you get another 6 1/2 life cards in discard / Crypt. 2 Past in Flames in the graveyard, random card + four lands vs. two cards + three lands + LED is definitely a position I don't mind being in if I just cast a discard spell.
What I find most interesting is how are we dead next turn if we're not dead this turn? Looks like Martin cracked Crypt in response to CRit and suddenly the opponent couldn't win, they have the same amount of mana next turn + a random card, but still not a full graveyard and one less Storm.
Oh and I also like that we all have different ideas of what's going to happen with that Surgical. (No sarcasm. Maybe we should actually go through all the potential uses for Surgical here, that would be interesting.)
Don't mind me, i'm just writing about Pauper these days: theweeklywars.wordpress.com
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So to sum it up, I did this, I hope there aren't many things I forgot about, these write up are hard not make mistake in...
so I owe you the start, it's true that if I had thought about what has happened the turn before, there are combinations in which I'm not dead, if you want to make it a perfect play scenario I can give you the details (although dont want to show my opponents list here), but I was working under the assumption I'm dead so I presented it the same way:
1. act or not?
last turn my opponent has cast Preordain, kept both, GPed into it, played a land, fetched and cast CR to which I Crypted his GY in expectation of him going for nonlethal Ad Nauseam... he just passed
so I assume he has
1.1 IT+PIF
1.2 CR+Ad Nauseam
1.3 IT+crap, wanted to get rid of Crypt
in which case basically every his topdeck leads to Ad Nauseam ... ok not 100% dead he can hit discard or blank bussiness and have nothing and I can topdeck mana/cantrip->mana... but let's say we were dead, the decision was made... not taking a possible 2nd Extraction into account
2. the original picture - Ad Nauseam
if I cast this Opp
2.1 - Extracts the LP figuring out the bottleneck - so we need to hit 2x LED in 40 cards with average ~1life/card
2.2 - waits - he has all the key spells in the GY so he can act on what we flip responding to the first spell with the benefit of chance of our suicide, the winning combinations are mixes of LPs, LED, DR and ToA (like 2LP, DR, CR, ToA), the fact there is only 2 LP doesnt help
2.3 - extracts other card - only makes Ad Nauseam better
3. the original picture - grab 2nd PiF
I have to say I dismissed this one too soon, casting it Opp
3.1 Extracts DR (assuming he take all of them - not a good play but likely)
3.1.1 = GP - 2/39 for LP CR -> IT-> LED -> cantrips (very good position), 2/39 +2/38 ftw with LED , 2/38 LP to Ponder for LED, 6/39, 6/38 for discard which would be a satisfactory outcome, but ultimately doesnt improve the position unless the 2nd GP card is relevant card like IT or EtW is involved
3.2 Extracts IT
3.2.1 = GP 1/39 +1/38 for ToA, 1/39 +1/38 for Ad Nauseam, 6/39, 6/38 for discard for discard which would be a satisfactory outcome, but ultimately doesnt improve the position unless the 2nd GP card is relevant card like IT or EtW is involved
4. the original picture - flashback PIF
now this is what I like about the situation - the mindgame
4.1 Grab LED - by flashbacking PiF your opponent
4.1.1. does nothing - waits for what you play next as there is no mana (possible if he doesnt realize a landdrop was made), extracts IT when LED is played
4.1.2. Extracts LED as the obvious target = loss
4.1.3. Extracts LP in assumption of trying to next level him = win
4.1.4. Extracts IT - doesn't realize the mindgame or ignores it and just wants to make a his loss as improbable as possible
4.1.4.1 = there is 2GP + 2x Ponder, 3U mana to hit 2xLP or 1LED + combination of relevant cards
4.2 Grab LP - if you feel that opponent will figure out what you found and tries to outsmart you can try to next level him ftw. - this is actually a thing I'd really consider in real life or knowing my opponent
4.2.1 Extracts LED = win
4.2.2. Extracts LP - 2/41, 2/40 for LED ftw via 2x GP
I ended up grabbing LED thinking my opponent will go for IT most likely, he did, by 4.1.4.1 I arrived and made a mistake here:
judging by my opponents play G1 I assumed he doesn't remember me, and went for the n00b win by taking and Extirpating ToA and got rightfully punnished by EtW few turns after in the same fashion I kill ppl who do this to me...
My rationalle behind taking LED (assuming it more or less safe from Extraction) is this develops my position the most, as all the scenarios are quite luckluster and involve LP or LED as the starting point, I think I have the best chances to find it this way, if I do it rewards me the most - hitting just a discard spell with a mix of cards leaves me in decent position... whether this is likely to happen or it is more rational to pass the turn (or safely IT just for discard) I can't say... that's why I was asking what you'd do..
we went into a G3 in which I timed out having 6 goblins while my opponent needed to present his own Goblins on 4 life with no gy, no ToA and no Tutors which wasn't improbable, so definitely an anticlimactic ending of an interesting match... and ppl say mirror match is boring ;)
encouraged by the silence of intense thinking I present more food for thought! now even more calculatable! - overall config for relevant cards is 2 ToA, 1 Pif, 0EtW, 1 Ad Nauseam, all cantrips 4x, no sweepers, Opp has nothing relevant in hand, landdrop is available... let's assume Op lifetotal doesnt matter
If I'm reading the screenshot correctly, you're on 1 life and then I just don't see any possibilities. I'd be interested to see how I'm wrong here, but without a shuffle effect or extra mana-free draws from Gitaxian probe, I see how you can make five mana, flashback PiF and then nothing.
He already casted pif, since brainstorm is casted by flashback. So storm is already at 3 I suppose (I'm missing something, but with 2 blue mana in pool this means he cracked the led for blue, 1 blue use to flash back brainstorm..... I don't know how he casted pif).
with brainstorm, put back fetch and petal.
use 1 blue mana to cast gitaxian, draw petal. Storm 4.
cast petal. storm 5.
use last blue mana in pool to flashback the second brainstorm. Storm 6. You will see the fetch and two unknow cards. One is tendrils because the deck loves you.
Flashback dark ritual tapping underground sea, storm 7, 3 black mana in pool, 5 available with petal and tropical.
Flashback cabal therapy, storm 8, 2 black mana in pool, 4 available with petal and tropical.
tendrils for 18 damages.
The Turn is DR, PIF, LED-> UUU ->BS
The question is do you cast the 2nd GP for mana or not?
so it should be:
DR/CR/LED/+IT // any mana+cantrip->ToA // LED+Cantrip->IT // ToA in 3 cards via Brainstorm w 4 mana available
vs
DR/CR/LED/land+IT // (mana)+cantrip(s)->(IT)/ToA // ToA in 2 cards via Brainstorm w 5 mana available
I have headache, I'll pass XD
Hey Slosh!
I can't remember most of the details of that match, only the stupid end of it I can remeber i considered taking LED, but i was afraid of you taking Lotus Petal and i went for the easy choice taking tutor, maybe not the best choice there.
I hope we play again soon
I'm struggling to see a determinate line but I think the question is do you value the additional card you'll see by casting GP, GP, Brainstorm, Vs. the mana you'd retain by casting GP, Brainstorm. With the cards remaining, I'd likely cast both GP. My evaluation is that the additional card would more easily allow you to draw into the combo since you still have the majority of your rituals, LED, LP, and IT in the deck.
Just randomly noticed that I think casting Infernal in the first scenario is wrong. Think I prefer Past in Flames, crack LED for BBB.
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Two black mana.
Don't mind me, i'm just writing about Pauper these days: theweeklywars.wordpress.com
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I suppose. I think I'd still take my chances with the Ad Nauseam that has to hit some very specific cards than the double probe that has to hit very specific cards, but that's just me.
EDIT: Just realized that your line that gives you two black mana also (i think) dramatically decreases your live draws. Since they'll have surgicalled Infernal, and not Dark Ritual, don't you literally have to find the Tendrils itself now? All of the "find enough mana to flash back Cabal Ritual and Infernal" lines that we had before don't work when the Infernal is gone. You have to either find the Tendrils or Lotus Petal/LED that let you ponder into the Tendrils. That *seems* less likely to me than finding the mana, but I could be wrong.
EDIT AGAIN: Though I suppose Petal/LED + Discard might let you use Empty as the wincon.
It's the same as if they Surgical Infernal with the other line, only you have Past in Flames in your deck still. Drawing Ad Nauseam off Probe here is significantly better though. It's all very close, but I like Past in Flames floating B the most with the other lines and this is the same only with more mana and Past in Flames in your deck. Given that Tendrils and Ad Nauseam are live hits here, it should be better.
(This does not change the Infernal for Petal mindgame that might just win you the game. As I said befoe, I'm no going down that route without having played the game myself.)
Don't mind me, i'm just writing about Pauper these days: theweeklywars.wordpress.com
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more mana = more possible combinations but in fewer cards... the RL scenario was actually easier because Opp was on 20 and storm was a factor, anyway found this interesting to think about
great point!
I totally missed that, looks like a very good line... actually UB or BR then
I have more! (don't panic I'm selling the deck after the weekend) this time a more common one , Opponent has nothing in hand, landdrop available...
btw. if Pif is the choice and Opponent lets it do you start with GP or IT->LED?
Hello guys,
Been away for a while, since the metagame became unfavorable for our deck and I chose to learn new things and new decks instead of trying to make this work.
I've seen that Rodrigo and Nevilshute are putting up some results, and I'd like to ask the reasonings behind maindeck abrupt decay and culling scales in the board!
Thanks a lot!
Not sure whether this is the answer you were looking for, but I would hold onto the Probes and tutor for LED. Leaving aside that I find tutoring with a blank card in hand to be a really dangerous move that almost never works for me, we both need to make blue to use our Ponders, and we've got to pick up at least one initial mana source and at least four mana's worth of initials and rituals. Probe also might let us use the final LED to cast cards we've topdecked from Ponder (assuming we find LED #4).
[EDIT: The thing to watch out for is that they'd eat the Tutor and leave us with almost nothing. Not sure whether there's a good way to prevent that. If we left Tutor uncast as bait, we'd need to hit at least one initial source off the Probes, and we wouldn't be able to Ponder without a drawn blue source.]
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