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Thread: Six Months In Update

  1. #1
    Joe Cool Above All
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    Six Months In Update

    So, when TNN was released there was (and sometimes still is) a major debate as to its effect on the meta. There were a lot of arguments using data and how it would change metagame percentages and how that could be an indicator of Legacy health/decline. Arsenal pointed out that The Source uses The Council's 6+ rounds as a way of measuring so he created a one year analysis of what had happened before TNN and I've been collecting data since.

    In the past 6 months I've surveyed 1090 decks across dozens of tournaments to see what the top 8 percentages have been:

    Miracles 9.17% of the top 8 meta
    Team America 9.17% of the top 8 meta
    UWR Delver 5.23% of the top 8 meta
    Deathblade 5.23% of the top 8 meta
    Sneak and Show 5.14% of the top 8 meta
    RUG Delver 5.14% of the top 8 meta
    Elves 4.68% of the top 8 meta
    Blade Control 4.59% of the top 8 meta
    Jund 4.77% of the top 8 meta
    Death and Taxes 4.40% of the top 8 meta
    ANT 4.40% of the top 8 meta
    Shardless BUG 3.39% of the top 8 meta
    UR Delver 3.03% of the top 8 meta
    Maverick 3.21% of the top 8 meta

    These are all the decks that have at least a 3% share of the metagame for a total of 71.74% of the top 8 shares. In the prior ten months, these same decks took up at least 85% (I can't find Arsenal's original post at the time) of the metagame meaning there has been more space for other decks to place. No deck has surpassed 10% of the top 8 shares and the bulk lie between 5.23% and 4.4% (57 top 8s to 48 top 8s over six months).

    What does this mean for Legacy's health at the moment? Is this good or bad to you?

  2. #2
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    Re: Six Months In Update

    Quote Originally Posted by HSCK View Post
    So
    Looking good to me at first glance.
    However your calcs should take the tournament's size into consideration, to make them more meaningfull.

  3. #3
    Joe Cool Above All
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    Re: Six Months In Update

    So the difference between 6-7 rounds and 8-9, etc? I do have all the tournament sizes on my monthly updates as well.

  4. #4

    Re: Six Months In Update

    Quote Originally Posted by HSCK View Post
    What does this mean for Legacy's health at the moment? Is this good or bad to you?
    This means that BS decks occupies the top 39%. If you like playing blue I'm sure things seem great.

  5. #5
    Joe Cool Above All
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    Re: Six Months In Update

    If that's the case can you point out a healthier time in Legacy's existence?

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    Re: Six Months In Update

    This is more a question I have than a comment about the data, which looks great (and like a pretty healthy meta).

    I know that an issue with the DTB Forum is the aggregation of similar archetypes into a single entry in The Council's database. This is particularly true when it comes to the BUG Midrange/Control decks. I know that Nihil Credo pointed out in this mont's DTBF update that only about half of the decks he counted under The Council's BUG Control label were Shardless BUG, with the other half being the more controlling deck with more Planeswalkers and True-Name Nemesis. Are these two decks separated in your analysis, or does your "Shardless BUG" coincide fully with The Council's "BUG Control"?

  7. #7
    Joe Cool Above All
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    Re: Six Months In Update

    I have them named as PW BUG and Shardless BUG, separated. I have PW BUG with 5 placings in April as well with Shardless BUG at 6.

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    Re: Six Months In Update

    Cool, thanks.

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