10 Months of TNN

[HSCK]

It's been a couple months since the last update, but with August over and most if not all the results TC will have in, I wanted to share the data I collected over the last 10 months. Criteria remains the same as previous updates: 6 or more round tournaments gathered from tcdecks.net.

In the last 10 months I've cataloged the placing of 1616 decks from dozens of tournaments around the world. From the beginning I've taken a special interest in decks that could be considered tier 1, 12 decks that make up the bulk of top 8 performing decks. Before TNN came in in November of 2013, these 12 decks took up around 80% of all placing decks in the top 8 criteria I listed before (Arsenal mined this data.) From November 2013-August 2014, these same 12 decks are 51.61% of all the top 8 decks.

Breakdown by percentage:

Team America 7.43%
Miracles 7.12%
RUG 4.39%
Sneak and Show 4.15%
Deathblade 4.08%
UWR Delver 3.96%
Elves 3.59%
Jund 3.59%
Blade Control 3.47%
ANT 3.47%
Death and Taxes 3.34%
Shardless BUG 3.03%

I remember the arguments about how format warping (and destroying) TNN would be after it came in. It as definitely warped the format to something very different than what it was before, but instead of a giant percentage of placings being one or two decks, we've seen a huge fragmentation, with only Team America and Miracles really being ahead of the other tier 1 decks, and neither coming close to what RUG and Jund were doing before.

I'm sure the arguments about what health and diversity are will continue in the same trajectory as they have been before, but I did want to present this as we can finally compare the 10 months of data from 2013 to the last 10 months and what it may mean for the rest of the year.

[klaus]

thanks for this.

[lyracian]

In the last 10 months I've cataloged the placing of 1616 decks from dozens of tournaments around the world. From the beginning I've taken a special interest in decks that could be considered tier 1, 12 decks that make up the bulk of top 8 performing decks. Before TNN came in in November of 2013, these 12 decks took up around 80% of all placing decks in the top 8 criteria I listed before (Arsenal mined this data.) From November 2013-August 2014, these same 12 decks are 51.61% of all the top 8 decks.

Thanks; it is interesting to see the changes and to know that the top decks have slightly less coverage than they did before.

[Julian23]

Thanks for your work. Judging from my anecdotical evidence, TNN is hardly even a relevant factor for anything where I play (MODO + Southern Germany). My perception might be skewed because I play a lot of Elves which naturally doesn't give a big shit about the card.

After all, 3 mana is still 3 mana in Legacy.

[catmint]

As much as I hated tnn when in came out, it seems like the strategies fighting/ignoring tnn are a bit ahead of the decks playing it and overall things seem to be pretty balanced and "healthy" for legacy standards.

[iamajellydonut]

which naturally doesn't give a big shit about the card.

While this data is nice, considering the rate at which True-Name Nemesis is played and the number of decks that are able to simply ignore it, I'm guessing True-Name Nemesis is not the only determining factor.

[Julian23]

While this data is nice, considering the rate at which True-Name Nemesis is played and the number of decks that are able to simply ignore it, I'm guessing True-Name Nemesis is not the only determining factor.

Determining factor for....what? I'm clueless about what you mean

[Quizzlemanizzle]

By my personal experience TNN is hardly a factor in the meta game.

When it gets equipped with Jitte it is a beating but so is Vendillion Clique. I don't see how TNN changed much actually and it does not show up in top8s often. It is just an annoying card but not particularly great and far from being the best creature in the format.

[iamajellydonut]

Determining factor for....what? I'm clueless about what you mean

Sorry, it's early morning and I just got to work. What I mean is that people can't just look at this and say "wow, look at all this change True-Name Nemesis, and True-Name Nemesis, alone brought to the format!", because it's probably not true. The OP's an honest dude from what little I've noticed, but I know other people will see the results and think that.

[HSCK]

Thanks for the feedback everyone! I wish I could figure out how to put my spreadsheets up here in case people really doubted the data. Yeah, TNN is definitely not the only reason we've seen fragmentation, I just thought it was interesting that everyone complained it would make the meta all one deck or another but the opposite has occurred. I think Julian's right though, 3 mana is 3 mana, which is a huge investment in Legacy.

[Zombie]

Thanks for the feedback everyone! I wish I could figure out how to put my spreadsheets up here in case people really doubted the data. Yeah, TNN is definitely not the only reason we've seen fragmentation, I just thought it was interesting that everyone complained it would make the meta all one deck or another but the opposite has occurred. I think Julian's right though, 3 mana is 3 mana, which is a huge investment in Legacy.

I don't recall "all deck or another". I recall the meta being about "decks that ignore/go over TNN (typically, combo and decks packing flyers", "decks that play TNN", "decks that should pack it up", with the oddball exception of Miracles which just happens to be a natural predator in it's counterspelling, creature-omnicidal glory. Nothing about specific decks becoming the nuts, just about overall changes TNN would push on the format.

You can see it in decks like Punishing Jund and RUG taking a good nosedive and Miracles asserting itself firmly on the throne of the format (who would've guessed, it's natural predators include decks like Punishing Jund and RUG is probably its hardest Delver matchup) which then naturally drives the little shit of a fish out. Also D&T pre-TNN and D&T post-TNN are pretty different, new D&T builds pack a lot more fliers and SoFI pretty much just so they can play the "go over and try to race Mr. Uninteraction" game.

btw, could you edit Arsenal's numbers there for direct comparison?

[Julian23]

Sorry, it's early morning and I just got to work. What I mean is that people can't just look at this and say "wow, look at all this change True-Name Nemesis, and True-Name Nemesis, alone brought to the format!", because it's probably not true. The OP's an honest dude from what little I've noticed, but I know other people will see the results and think that.

I agree, but still don't know how that blends in with my comment your quoted as I'm pretty much saying the exact same thing.

[DragoFireheart]

So a 3 CMC mini-Progenitus isn't back breaking to Legacy?

I too was wondering if it was ban worthy long while back, but as usual Legacy is too resilient to such petty crap. Seeing two of my favorite archtypes become tier 1 is just icing on the cake.

[iamajellydonut]

I agree, but still don't know how that blends in with my comment your quoted as I'm pretty much saying the exact same thing.

It's not supposed to be related to your post at all. I singled out the "doesn't give a shit" quip simply because I liked the sentiment it conveyed.

[HSCK]

It seems like a lot of extra work to find that post by Arsenal instead of that user just posting it. The last post I saved was this one:

Well, I think it's best if we get an understanding of what the meta looked like before TNN and what it has been looking like after. That is why I normally compare Jan-Oct 2013 to Nov 2013-Jan 2014 as that will give us a large enough sample size to draw conclusions from. I don't think anything before January 1st, 2013 is relevant, but I could be wrong.

[JPoJohnson]

This is interesting! Thanks for all the work you did on this. I have to admit that I'm not surprised that it ended up this way.

On a side note, just for curiosity's sake. Which major player decklists didn't quite make the cut for percentages? (If you have that information).

[HSCK]

The next 4 decks were:

Maverick: 2.35%
UR Delver/Burn: 2.17%
Fish: 2.1%
Reanimator: 1.49%
Bant: 1.3%

They were the only ones over 1% line for the time period. Your gratitude is very appreciated, especially considering how this all started with people basically flaming each other. I'm not sure if I'll keep collecting the data as the original goal was only for 10 months, but it's become somewhat of a routine to collect the data, so maybe till the end of the year.

[Quizzlemanizzle]

The next 4 decks were:

Maverick: 2.35%
UR Delver/Burn: 2.17%
Fish: 2.1%
Reanimator: 1.49%
Bant: 1.3%

They were the only ones over 1% line for the time period. Your gratitude is very appreciated, especially considering how this all started with people basically flaming each other. I'm not sure if I'll keep collecting the data as the original goal was only for 10 months, but it's become somewhat of a routine to collect the data, so maybe till the end of the year.

I think it is amazing how underplayed Oops All Spell is for how good the deck actually is. Guess many players dislike that you can simply be unlucky no matter how good you play.

[ESG]

Thanks for crunching the numbers.

I sometimes wonder if The Source could ever universally agree on a card being banworthy. Judging from all previous ban discussions and the revolving arguments in the B&R thread, the answer is no. Even Flash had plenty of supporters in its time.

I can look at HSCK's numbers and say, "Hmmm, the aggro decks are gone," or, "The first six decks all play Brainstorm and Force of Will." In an earlier era of Magic, these would have been signs that screamed out that there was a problem with the format, but the majority of posters here seem to not be concerned with that.

I still enjoy Legacy more than other formats, but the fun factor is greatly diminished. I'm glad I got to experience the format in its prime.

[iamajellydonut]

I think it is amazing how underplayed Oops All Spell is for how good the deck actually is. Guess many players dislike that you can simply be unlucky no matter how good you play.

I think more players dislike that it's a graveyard based Belcher.