[Primer/Deck] Nic Fit

[sdematt]

I disagree with some of this logic. Sylvan is one of the best cards against Delver in general. It's a FoW bait card...and if they let you have it, you crush them in CA.
You need Pulse, Scooze #2, and Thalia (not Canonist) in the SB.


RUG -- you stop delver and goyf, that's most of their offense. By default I'd bring in 3 Surgicals. They wasteland you once they lose it for the game. Any business in the yard? Cantrips? RFG. I took out a dude's ponders AND trops (vind -> trop -> surgical on G sources). Shave 1 deed (you got more than enough removal), 1 truths, 1 Diabolic Intent (as you don't want to give up any creatures clogging up the board. My personal philosophy here. If you run Thalia over Canonist, she's a must-have.

BUG -- pain in the ass. Ride Sigarda into the sunset. If you know this is in the meta in significant numbers, you could also pack smiters/baloths/WLL or other "free into play off your opponent's discard effect" creatures. Trim lackluster spells (truths, diabolic, possibly Meren) for the team of Scooze, Thalia, Surgical. Choke is randomly good too.

Against Shardless, I trade some Veterans for Carpets to match their velocity. If they hit 3 mana, expect to see all the toys: cantrips, agent -> visions or liliana. Choke and surgical are your call here. More techy lists near me make it hard to decide on surgical because the removal and bounce packages often include miser 1x delve-instants. I don't bring in Choke against shardless because they get too much mana.

Grixis --- depends on the build. Toxic and Surgicals fo sho.

Shardless is all about controlling Jace and Liliana. You can beat their boards since you have sweepers against light countermagic, but Liliana and Jace are more difficult. Ideally, you wipe the board and drop Sigarda. Sigarda and walkers are something that Shardless falls behind with, and tries to make up by derdling around with 2/2's that draw more cards. Rhinotime them, and save Veterans for Liliana bait, if you can. Truths helps you keep up with Visions.

Grixis is all about Rhinos. They can't remove or beat Rhino except for Gurmang Cock Gobbler. Therefore, bait Stifles and Forces with Therapies, and blow Deeds on their upkeep if possible to at least use their mana up if they have Stifle. They realistically cannot beat sweepers into Rhinos. Their only hope is Stifle and Force.

RUG is okay, but again, Stifles and quick Tarmogoyfs can kill you. If you can activate Explorer, you can get through all their conditional countermagic and goon them with Rhinos. Again, they can't beat him, except to try to outclass him with Goyf, but you have 6-8 pieces of fuck you, coupled with sweepers. Play tight and don't underestimate mana denial against your ramp deck. Watch out for Submerge.

[Warden]

Matt I agree with most of what you're saying but he was asking about SB and game 2/3 plans based off his list

[Echelon]

RUG/BUG/Grixis delver decks seem to be increasing exponentially at my LGS. I'm currently only at 50/50 success rate (25 matches or so) with the deck listed below, so I assume I'm doing something wrong. In G2 I take out 1xPruths, 1xMeren, 1xSylvan and 1xEternal Witness (they all go anti-gy in g2) and I bring in 2xCarpets, 1xChoke and another Toxic Deluge. What would you do?

First off I'd run PtEs, they shine in those MUs (especially when you run into the zombie fish). Second, I'd switch some of my duals for more fetch and basics. Fuck Wasteland. It should be ignored, not dealt with. That's part of what makes this deck so good. Just hit yourself on the fingers everytime you fetch a dualland until you stop doing it, more often than not (and yes, I'm the crazy person with the 10 fetchlands) you really don't need a dual. All it takes is a little bit of planning.

1. How do people feel about a second Meren? I haven't had a chance to play much Legacy lately but in the back of my mind I've kept a comment Ralf (think that's the right user) made several months ago about lowering the curve of the deck. It was something I agreed with in general, this deck levels out around 4-5 mana usually, which means the largest thing you can GSZ super consistently is a 4 drop. This may be heresy but how do people feel about excluding the 6 drops, and even the 5 drops changing what is usually the Sigarda slot for a 2nd Meren? Sigarda could still have a place in the sideboard but I think I might like the G1 Meren plan more and then in G2 where GY hate might come in, take it out entirely for something big and strong on it's own like Sigarda. Part of me really likes the idea of putting down a Meren, building some counters, making the opponent go through the trouble of removing it, and then being able to get another Meren that already has some counters to work with.

@Meren no. 2: If you want to do that, do yourself a favor and run Fierce Empath + Karador, Ghost Chieftain. It doesn't come up often but when it does, it's the shit. Under no circumstance drop Sigarda from your list. It's the baddest bitch in the deck.

2. I've had something of a hobby lately in trying to write a computer script that can goldfish (or eventually play against an opponent with some interaction) games, in order to generate a huge dataset and compare through Magic's variance rather than rely on a very small and volatile sample size. I've applied the principal to two decks so far, Legacy Burn and Modern Knightfall. This approach doesn't work for Nic Fit because the deck isn't linear enough (all of the decisions in tutoring makes cards like Diabolic Intent and GSZ a nightmare to try and calculate fast enough to maintain a decent runtime on the script) , but my approach with other decks has shown me something interesting that I think crosses over which is that the optimal number of lands is much higher than typically believed. In my Knightfall deck for example the optimal mana count ended up being 28 lands 0 manadorks (the typical accepted number for that deck is 23/4). Obviously with 28 lands this means several lands need to also function as spells so that you have some insurance against flood. Now, it's just a guess on my part and I'm not advocating that many lands here because Veteran Explorer and Top are both additional factors to consider but I'm confident enough that I would put money on the optimal land count for Nic Fit being 24-25 rather than 22-23. What do people think about adding a few lands like Tabernacle (slows opponent, asymmetrical since we have excess mana, sac outlet) and Volrath's Stronghold to the deck alongside say 1 Crop Rotation to effectively double up on the tool box?

I've had a similar pet project a couple of years back. Do you take into account different colours of mana and fetch/duallands (and determining what lands to fetch based on the card you'll most likely want to play next)..? And what sample size did you use?

[Arianrhod]

Just popping in quick to say that shaving Vets vs Shardless is definitely incorrect. The easiest way to beat Shardless that I've found is to play/zenith like 3 Explorers into play and then just ram your mana advantage down their throat.

[sdematt]

Just popping in quick to say that shaving Vets vs Shardless is definitely incorrect. The easiest way to beat Shardless that I've found is to play/zenith like 3 Explorers into play and then just ram your mana advantage down their throat.

Agreed, I never shave them.

[Echelon]

Agreed, I never shave them.

That's the manly way of going about things.

[Bobmans]

Agreed, I never shave them.

That's the manly way of going about things.

Dr Pol would also agree.

[Brael]

I've had a similar pet project a couple of years back. Do you take into account different colours of mana and fetch/duallands (and determining what lands to fetch based on the card you'll most likely want to play next)..? And what sample size did you use?

No. In order to maximize runtime I was simplifying where possible. Part of that means assuming rainbow lands. I'm in the process of implementing fetchlands now. They can't really be added until most of a decks skeleton is known however because adding additional card choices to a pool dramatically increases the permutations of decks you have to compute. For example lets say I take a pool of 40 rainbow lands, 40 grizzly bears, and 40 lightning bolts, there are 64,000 possible options there (though a large number of those will be below 60 cards and thus not get tested). On the other hand lets say I cut the lands in half and test 20 fetch, 20 rainbow land, 40 bears, 40 bolts. That's 640,000 possible options which results in a 10 fold increase of the runtime.

This meant fetches have been pretty low on my priority list. I suspect that adding fetches may increase the number of suggested lands by 1, but that has yet to be proven.

Colored mana I have no interest in trying to compute. My goal with the project is to find optimal deck structures, more traditional deck building methods still need to be in place when you're looking at things like your color mana curve along side colored mana requirements. As such, I'm of the opinion that rainbow lands are the best option. They don't involve any logic in tapping for colors, and properly thought out deck construction and foresight in game in fetching the appropriate colors as needed can deliver the same result without any computational overhead.

I've used many different sample sizes depending on what I was testing for any given run, anything from 5000 to 250,000 games per deck permutation. My largest run before I shut it down to rework everything and try to add some interaction from an opponent (a task that has now been sidelined for weeks as homework I've been neglecting has piled up) was 50,000 games per deck across just under 5000 deck permutations using a 13? card pool. The long, long term goal (summer project) is that I can let the simulator eventually run on a spare computer that acts as my webserver, and that after a few weeks I'll have a database of billions of games played out step by step to run various queries on, alongside a front end form for anyone to access the DB. Those games won't quite be at the quality of say LSV vs Finkel, but certain trends can definitely be seen from that many matches.

If you want to know anything more about it just ask, I like talking about the project a lot, but a PM would probably be best as it has little to do with Nic Fit beyond some general deck composition observations I've found from it (that I've since been trying out in every deck I play).

[Echelon]

Yeah, we'll continue this in PM.

Also... Here's a little something I'm considering having made:

[Ricardio]

Yeah, we'll continue this in PM.

Also... Here's a little something I'm considering having made:

wow that's hilarious.

[Arianrhod]

4 Veteran Explorer
2 Deathrite Shaman
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
1 Eternal Witness
1 Glissa, the Traitor
3 Siege Rhino
1 Meren of Clan Nel Toth
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
2 Baneslayer Angel
1 Sun Titan

4 Cabal Therapy
4 Green Sun's Zenith
2 Painful Truths
1 Toxic Deluge
1 Vindicate

2 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Engineered Explosives

3 Pernicious Deed
1 Sylvan Library
1 Recurring Nightmare

3 Bayou
2 Savannah
1 Scrubland
1 Taiga
3 Verdant Catacombs
3 Windswept Heath
3 Forest
2 Plains
2 Swamp
1 Karakas
1 Phyrexian Tower

//sb
2 Slaughter Games
2 Pithing Needle
2 Thoughtseize
3 Surgical Extraction
2 Krosan Grip
1 Toxic Deluge
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
1 Engineered Plague

On this for Mythic tomorrow. I think the Post version needs more time to come together -- there's just too many questions right now and not enough time to properly test and answer them.

EE over Deluge #2 maindeck is a concession to the Glissa. I wanted to have something other than Top to get back with her, and the loop she forms with EE is actually faintly degenerate. Courtesy of the Taiga for Slaughters, we can actually get to 4 colors, as well, which is nice. In the abstract I would rather have the second Deluge, but at the point at which I want Glissa main, I think the EE is worth having. I could be talked into siding Glissa and EE in exchange for Deluge #2 and either Sorin or Wurmcoil going maindeck.

The only other thing on my mind with this list at the moment is if I want to try to open two slots main for a pair of Decays, which would put me to 8 maindeck removal spells. I kind of want to, but it'd cost me Qasali and probably Sylvan, which is a steep price. Alternatively -Glissa -EE -Qasali +Deluge +2 Decay is another option, and then open a sideboard slot for the Glissa/EE package.

Regardless, I'm somewhere within a couple cards of this. I'm comfortable going to 2 Slaughters with the addition of the Surgicals.

Side topic on the Slaughters: what are everyone's thoughts on boarding in Slaughters vs Eldrazi, to name Reality Smasher and possibly Endbringer? Very not sure if worth, just an idea that I wanted to toss out.

[Jain_Mor]

Is anyone else other than Warden siding in surgical extractions against delver decks??
Have I been missing out on some well known tech?

It doesn't seem so great. Don't tell me it's because you want to vindicate their land, is it because they run so few threats that preventing them from drawing the remaining three delvers/goyfs in their deck is legitimate play?

[Bobmans]

Is anyone else other than Warden siding in surgical extractions against delver decks??
Have I been missing out on some well known tech?

It doesn't seem so great. Don't tell me it's because you went to vindicate their land, is it because they run so few threats that preventing them from drawing the remaining three delvers/goyfs in their deck is legitimate play?

Surgical can hit something important for them specifically in that game. It does change per game, but i have won a lot of times cus i either remove their Bolt's while on low life and when the board was going in my favor. Also if they Brainstorm or Ponder and don't shuffle you can screw up their day. Untap and then Cabal Therapy. Surgical not only removes cards, it also gives a forced shuffle and information on their hand. Disrupt their tempo, as you will.

[Jain_Mor]

Right, but is that any good? Is it worth a slot? I guess if you have lots of cards to side out it can come in..
But what are typically taking out of your deck to make room for extraction?

[Tom4ik]

I have never and would never side in Surgicals against anything other than Combo, and loam based decks. The card is for sure not worth it against delver decks or shardless. Just play a normal game against those types of decks and dont bring in cards that are mediocre at best and a total blank at worst. I cannot imagine most nic fit decks have enough dead cards against aggro/midrange decks that you are bring them in.

Vet should never come out against shardless. Vet is the best way to turn the game. The longer the game drags out before Nic fit can land a bomb the more likely it is that Shardless will build up a board that can either win through a deed/sweeper and a single threat. Shaving a therapy or 2 is usually fine because even landing a vet will sometimes give you the time but removing them all together is not a good idea. Insurance against lily is also nice late game as aside from Sigarda losing your bombs to lily can happen.

@Ralf- I just took a look at your sigged bug lists. Both intrigued me. I'll pick one to work on and post a list. Thanks! I am a fan of probe but it does run up the card space issue.

[Arianrhod]

I just put the Surgicals in the deck for the first time since like, RTR was in standard. I haven't decided if I'm going to try to board them in vs Delver or not -- they are effective at hitting their reach, dicking their "Brainstorm in response to your Therapy HURRRR" lines, and punishing their low number of wincons (Therapying away a Young Pyro and then surgicaling it is pretty backbreaking, I think).

That does not mean I have any idea what I'm taking out.

In the list I just posted, I'd probably want to go:

+2 Seize
+1 Deluge
+1 Sorin

-1 Sun Titan
-1 Nightmare
-1 Meren
-1 Qasali

I guess I could -2 Painful Truths -1 Nissa for +3 Surgicals. Not sure if that's actually better, but it might be.

[Arianrhod]

I have never and would never side in Surgicals against anything other than Combo, and loam based decks. The card is for sure not worth it against delver decks or shardless. Just play a normal game against those types of decks and dont bring in cards that are mediocre at best and a total blank at worst. I cannot imagine most nic fit decks have enough dead cards against aggro/midrange decks that you are bring them in.

Vet should never come out against shardless. Vet is the best way to turn the game. The longer the game drags out before Nic fit can land a bomb the more likely it is that Shardless will build up a board that can either win through a deed/sweeper and a single threat. Shaving a therapy or 2 is usually fine because even landing a vet will sometimes give you the time but removing them all together is not a good idea. Insurance against lily is also nice late game as aside from Sigarda losing your bombs to lily can happen.

@Ralf- I just took a look at your sigged bug lists. Both intrigued me. I'll pick one to work on and post a list. Thanks! I am a fan of probe but it does run up the card space issue.

Tom, I have a question for you, inspired by Brael's posts of late. Maybe the answer to BUG's card space issue is to just go to 64/65 cards (pending 60 vs 61), and just ADD the 4 Probes on top of whatever other list. They replace themselves, so you're not ACTUALLY adding to the number of cards in your deck. You would be hurting yourself a bit more under this paradigm since you would essentially be operating under the assumption that you're always paying life for them, so you'd probably have to add more lifegain -- but it's worth thinking about.

[Bobmans]

List

The other day you mentioned that the more removal you run, the more trouble you had winning. Would you want to elaborate? Also doesn't the low removal count scare ya, make you soft to stuff?

[Arianrhod]

The other day you mentioned that the more removal you run, the more trouble you had winning. Would you want to elaborate? Also doesn't the low removal count scare ya, make you soft to stuff?

I like sweepers quite a bit, actually. There's 6 sweepers in that list, with another in the board. I favor sweep over spot, because of the inherent card advantage. Admittedly I'm a bit less harsh on spot removal than I once was, with the advent of Painful Truths giving us actual CA to make up for spending our time 1-for-1ing, but it's still not a game that I want to play. It favors the blue decks too much.

With a deck like Nic Fit, I tremendously prefer having modal spells: things that generate advantage and are rarely useless. Path to Exile is basically hot garbage against Miracles, but Engineered Explosives, for example, is still great. Deluge is the worst card in the deck vs Miracles (aside from Therapy/Explorer), and even then, it can clean up Mentor where spot removal cannot.

Decay tends to get a bit of a pass on that in my estimation, because of being uncounterable and because it's also a naturalize/can kill planeswalkers. This is also why I like Vindicate and Pulse, but wouldn't run a Terror/Doom Blade/Dismember/etc. My problem with Decay at the moment is that it's often very mana inefficient for what it's trying to kill, and the artifacts and enchantments that you care about, you can clean up with K.Grip out of the board. Like, vs Delver, let's say they open on Delver, on the play (not uncommon). We have to make two lands drops to kill it. Even assuming we have other plays on 1, they're massively ahead by the time we kill it -- and then they use their turn 3 to play one or two more threats to replace the Delver, while we still have an empty board and a threatened life total. I'd rather use my life total as a resource a bit, sweep away multiple threats, and then regain life with Rhino and Baneslayer into a win.

Again: that's not to say that the spot removal + card draw plan can't work -- it's been great for blue decks for as long as magic has existed, after all -- but it's not somewhere that I typically want to be.

[Bobmans]

I like sweepers quite a bit, actually. There's 6 sweepers in that list, with another in the board. I favor sweep over spot, because of the inherent card advantage. Admittedly I'm a bit less harsh on spot removal than I once was, with the advent of Painful Truths giving us actual CA to make up for spending our time 1-for-1ing, but it's still not a game that I want to play. It favors the blue decks too much.

With a deck like Nic Fit, I tremendously prefer having modal spells: things that generate advantage and are rarely useless. Path to Exile is basically hot garbage against Miracles, but Engineered Explosives, for example, is still great. Deluge is the worst card in the deck vs Miracles (aside from Therapy/Explorer), and even then, it can clean up Mentor where spot removal cannot.

Decay tends to get a bit of a pass on that in my estimation, because of being uncounterable and because it's also a naturalize/can kill planeswalkers. This is also why I like Vindicate and Pulse, but wouldn't run a Terror/Doom Blade/Dismember/etc. My problem with Decay at the moment is that it's often very mana inefficient for what it's trying to kill, and the artifacts and enchantments that you care about, you can clean up with K.Grip out of the board. Like, vs Delver, let's say they open on Delver, on the play (not uncommon). We have to make two lands drops to kill it. Even assuming we have other plays on 1, they're massively ahead by the time we kill it -- and then they use their turn 3 to play one or two more threats to replace the Delver, while we still have an empty board and a threatened life total. I'd rather use my life total as a resource a bit, sweep away multiple threats, and then regain life with Rhino and Baneslayer into a win.

Again: that's not to say that the spot removal + card draw plan can't work -- it's been great for blue decks for as long as magic has existed, after all -- but it's not somewhere that I typically want to be.

Thanks for the answer. I am very curious how things will work out for you tomorrow. Good luck to you.