I think what happened here is that Einherjer mentioned the cards he most fears out of BUG's sideboard, including Null Rod, Bitterblossom, Pithing Needle, and Sylvan Library, but wcm8's sideboard isn't chock full of those. Look at wcm8's sideboard from page 69 of the BUG Delver thread:
After boarding, Disenchant hits 2 Sylvan Libraries and 2 Null Rods. They're highly relevant targets, but there aren't a ton of them. Envelop and Vendilion Cliques are extremely good against Miracles but don't die to Disenchant; if instead of the 2 Envelops and 2 Cliques wcm8 ran more Null Rods, Needles, and Bitterblossoms, you'd both agree about how important Disenchant is in the matchup.
Rest in Peace, on the other hand, neuters DRS, Goyf, and the singleton Tasigur, leaving only Delvers and Cliques as threats until the RiP can be destroyed. That's much more of a speed bump than Disenchanting a Sylvan Library, especially if the BUG Delver player gets a draw step with the Library in play.
InfoNinjas
The article was a thoroughly informative read. I like the expansive list of configurations you suggest for different metagames and their reasoning, which shows that you think in more than one perspective. Thank you.
Want to beat True-Name Nemesis? Here's what you do when your opponent resolves it, and they name you.
This may not have been directed at me, but I'll respond anyway. First off, most Magic players are bad. Really, all of us are. I can't think of a tournament or testing session in the last two years where I walked away thinking I played perfectly, and post-event self criticism is one of the hallmarks of a good playgroup. You might argue that Miracles is less forgiving of mistakes than BUG (and you're likely right about this), but that's not particularly relevant to this discussion.
I think Miracles is a very good deck; indeed, it's one of the best in Legacy. However, I also think (and will expand on this below) that Miracles' relative merits are perceived as greater in Europe than they are in the US and I'm not totally sure of the reason for this.
This may be right in an idealized world of both decks playing the perfect lines every time. That being said, our playtesting around the time of GP NJ showed how much play there is to the matchup, especially postboard. It was especially helpful to rewind the game states when we did so to see how each of us taking different lines would've changed the outcome.
I agree that this is the case empirically, but I'm still somewhat surprised that with all the attention that gets paid to Legacy now we still see such large regional metagame variations. I big part of this might be cost and the relatively lower frequency of big events in Europe, but we still see large variations within the US as well, with the relatively high popularity of decks like Lands and Imperial Painter in parts of the US and their almost total absence in others. Even in our region, I see far fewer Stoneforge Mystics at local weeklies (and this is across several stores) than seem to turn up in the Pacific Northwest.As for why Miracles does not Top 8 as much in the U.S., It seems to me that its for a similar reason that Storm was doing better in Europe than in the States pre-Treasure Cruise: 1. Different preferences among players in a given part of the world will yield different metagame compositions. People in Europe seem to really love combo and control decks which is why you will see a higher penetration of Storm and Miracles. Really though, this is not something that's hard to figure out if you even have an inkling of how to compare different cultures.
This doesn't surprise or offend me, though one could make the same argument about having fewer extremely proficient BUG players in Europe and I don't think the difference in skill cap between the two decks is particularly large. The main reason I've stuck to BUG over Miracles (aside from the 'I sold my Tundras' issue; I could get Tundras pretty easily if I wanted them) is that while both decks have good and bad matchups, Miracles' bad ones seem to be much more polarized (Post, MUD) than BUG's (Painter, Burn), especially in the case of BUG Delver.2. This might seem slightly offensive but I'm starting to believe it's actually true. I think that Europe probably just has a higher number of proficient to excellent Miracle players. In America, on the other hand, this doesn't seem to be the case still, which is why the amount of people who Top 8 with Miracles is not as much.
I agree there is a lot of play in the MU. I've had some of my best games of legacy playing this MU from both sides whether I was on BUG Delver or Miracles. With that said, I also enjoy testing with you so if you ever have time in the future, hit me up and I'll try and make time to test on Cockatrice. Probably a good idea since I won't seeing you at locals anymore...
I'm pretty sure cost coupled with playerbase preferences are the biggest determining factors in what gets played where. Sure SCG results have a significant influence on players in the U.S. at least, but you said it yourself even then there are still huge metagame variations between regions in the U.S. The financial barrier of entry is just too high for most people to afford having more than one or two decks. I wish the legacy meta could be more organic in paper but I think this is just the result of: 1. A format shackled by the reserve list 2. One of the essential ideas of an eternal format is that you can play the decks you want to play for a very long time, which is what many people do 3. Not only Magic but Legacy in particular is HARD. I think this is another reason most people stick to a limited number of decks rather than trying to be a jack of all trades. Many legacy decks are complicated in and of themselves compared to decks in other formats and so are the games as well.
If I'm understanding what you mean by "skill cap", I disagree on the skill cap between the decks. Miracles seems to take more practice to get proficient with than BUG Delver since the former is just inherently more complex than the latter. This is why I think I've only recently gotten to a point where I can consider myself an "above average" Miracles player. After SCG Columbus last year where I Top 64'ed with Miracles, I just lost most of the time, even at locals. Other factors aside, I was still learning how to play the deck proficiently. With that said, I can understand your decisions to stick with BUG based on MUs, but I'm pretty sure Painter and Burn see more play than 12 Post and MUD still. Either way, there's no problem saying you like BUG more overall as I gravitated towards Miracles because I thought I'd like it more, and that is how it is now. Metagame considerations did factor into my decision as I wouldn't play something that is almost or completely unplayable, but they were only secondary to what I thought would make legacy more fun for me
RiP is really really bad in BUG Delver match-up if you play Snapcaster build. Fundamentally, if you successfully resolve creature removal on DRS, Goyf, Delver, and Clique, BUG cannot win, doesn't matter even if null rod is on board. I would understand RiP if you're fighting Loam/PFire/reanimator decks.
Most of the BUG Delver loss I have experienced is because BUG's explosive start. Thoughtseize, Hymn, then Threats. That's very tough. While I am looking for removal, BUG's looking for Stifle or Counter to try to trip up my eventual removal spells.
Hence this MU is certainly dynamic and I would slightly favor Miracles. There're worse MU Miracles should pay attention to, this is not one of them.
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