Eldrazi at SCG Philly

[btm10]

This is a topic that's come up indirectly in several deck threads and explicitly in several conversations I've had since the weekend, so a centralized thread seems appropriate. What overall metagame penetration do people expect Eldrazi (all variants) to have at SCG Philly? My personal guess is that it's going to be about 10% of the day 1 field and hold that number into Day 2, largely due to some of the pilots being Modern players who bought 4 Ancient Tombs and aren't familiar enough with Legacy to play the port optimally. I definitely expect to see at least one copy in the top 8, and at least one more in the top 32.

[Koby]

My line is 1 Stompy deck in T8, of which Eldrazi is the most likely variant to succeed.

[H]

Yeah, maybe one in the top 8. Maybe another in the top 16 on just sheer weight of numbers.

Thing is that Legacy decks are generally a lot more consistent than Modern decks. So having a very powerful inconsistent deck in Modern is fine, because your opponents aren't much better off than you are and your power level is higher.

This doesn't fly so much in Legacy, which is why stompy decks of today don't fare so well over time. 15 rounds is an awful grind when you don't have cantrips or anything else to smooth your draw.

[Barook]

This is a topic that's come up indirectly in several deck threads and explicitly in several conversations I've had since the weekend, so a centralized thread seems approproate. What overall metagame penetration do people expect Eldrazi (all variants) to have at SCG Philly? My personal guess is that it's going to be about 10% of the day 1 field and hold that number into Day 2, largely due to some of the pilots being Modern players who bought 4 Ancient Tombs and aren't familiar enough with Legacy to play the port optimally. I definitely expect to see at least one copy in the top 8, and at least one more in the top 32.

Expecting Eldrazi in some form is definitely a good idea for two reasons:

a) It doesn't require duals and can be build in various forms from the Modern versions without many or no RL cards.

b) Everybody wants the bragging right for breaking Eldrazi first.

"Pros" like Hoogland or now Jim Davis are streaming Legacy Eldrazi, so there are people working on it.

I do think that the "right" build has potential to be Tier 1 since it's much more consistent than other Stompy decks and it wrecks most other blue decks with the right build.

[Tammit67]

Decks I'm looking to be prepared beat for me going into SCG Philly are:
Delver
Miracles
Eldrazi
----------------
Everything else (aka I want to do something that feels powerful to deal with everything else)

I wouldn't play a deck unless I'm comfortable with at least 2 of those 3 matchups at the top

[shocked439]

I think you are overhyping the eldrazi deck. When the modern version was being built and it became obvious how good the deck could be it also became obvious that modern didn't have the answers for an overpowered strategy like eldrazi. Legacy is still the format of stifle, wasteland, daze, and force of will. Do I expect some modern players to sleeve up a deck with freshly acquired ancient tombs, yes. But I don't see how the deck is any more degenerate than the rest of the legacy field. Legacy has turn one kills and turn two kills, it has the answers for overpowered strategies. This might be the most consistent stompy deck, but it's still beatable.

[Ephemeron]

Yeah, maybe one in the top 8. Maybe another in the top 16 on just sheer weight of numbers.

Thing is that Legacy decks are generally a lot more consistent than Modern decks. So having a very powerful inconsistent deck in Modern is fine, because your opponents aren't much better off than you are and your power level is higher.

This doesn't fly so much in Legacy, which is why stompy decks of today don't fare so well over time. 15 rounds is an awful grind when you don't have cantrips or anything else to smooth your draw.

This x 100. I don't want to take anything away from the people innovating the deck right now and putting in the hours but there's a big difference between 5-0'ing a league or 4-0'ing your weekly and going the distance in a 12+ round tournament. The fact that these stompy decks sometimes just lose to themselves is probably the biggest thing holding them back and it's why MUD is also a Tier 2 deck. Maybe being lower to the ground will solve that but Eldrazi is also vulnerable to stuff like Goyf whereas MUD just laughs at that card. It's a trade-off.

If all of a sudden tons of people just decided to start playing MUD I think you'd see your share of 5-0 leagues with that deck too. But I bet a lot of people will be playing it at Philly so I'll say 2-3 in the top 32 with the over/under for top 8 copies set at .5.

[Tammit67]

I think you are overhyping the eldrazi deck. When the modern version was being built and it became obvious how good the deck could be it also became obvious that modern didn't have the answers for an overpowered strategy like eldrazi. Legacy is still the format of stifle, wasteland, daze, and force of will. Do I expect some modern players to sleeve up a deck with freshly acquired ancient tombs, yes. But I don't see how the deck is any more degenerate than the rest of the legacy field. Legacy has turn one kills and turn two kills, it has the answers for overpowered strategies. This might be the most consistent stompy deck, but it's still beatable.

Consistency is the only thing keeping stompy in check IMO. See: Vintage shops.

I'm not saying the deck is good or here to stay, I'm saying I'm expecting to see it because it is threat dense enough to avoid folding to force of will, immune to stifle, often shuts down entire strats with chalice and trinisphere, has the sol lands to play around daze and generally has bigger creatures than most decks. That combined with the deck receiving a lot of attention and is perceived strong leads to more players switching to the deck

[tescrin]

Meh, probably not. Even with sheer numbers. I think it just loses to Shardless (Goyf in Shardless is bigger than everything but Endless, their removal is relevant, Strixes beat everything, they have huge CA advantages, they have faster tempo if they hit Shardless, they are more consistent.) Shardless is also pretty popular.

The thing is, the threads complaining about this deck are largely filled with people who don't care about it. The deck has plenty of openers that aren't explosive and is boardstalled by your typical Goyf or Angler.

They're also (probably) terrible against Burn (which is always everywhere), bad against Moon decks (which are usually hanging around) and despite Thorn/Chalice, are bad against a variety of combo decks. I wouldn't be surprised if Dredge and Shardless performed abnormally well this tourny.

[Stuart]

Meh, probably not. Even with sheer numbers. I think it just loses to Shardless (Goyf in Shardless is bigger than everything but Endless, their removal is relevant, Strixes beat everything, they have huge CA advantages, they have faster tempo if they hit Shardless, they are more consistent.) Shardless is also pretty popular.

The thing is, the threads complaining about this deck are largely filled with people who don't care about it. The deck has plenty of openers that aren't explosive and is boardstalled by your typical Goyf or Angler.

They're also (probably) terrible against Burn (which is always everywhere), bad against Moon decks (which are usually hanging around) and despite Thorn/Chalice, are bad against a variety of combo decks. I wouldn't be surprised if Dredge and Shardless performed abnormally well this tourny.

I agree with most of this, though I wouldn't expect Eldrazi to struggle with Burn*. MUD handles Burn pretty well thanks to cards that Eldrazi also run: Chalice, Trinisphere, etc. And, obviously, if they can tackle Burn, that should go a long ways in helping their standings at SCG Philly.

Interesting to see the Dredge prediction. How's that match for Eldrazi? I would think they could just Sphere them out of the game, but I dunno.


*I've never played with/against Eldrazi Stompy, so take that with several grains of salt.

[Barook]

Meh, probably not. Even with sheer numbers. I think it just loses to Shardless (Goyf in Shardless is bigger than everything but Endless, their removal is relevant, Strixes beat everything, they have huge CA advantages, they have faster tempo if they hit Shardless, they are more consistent.) Shardless is also pretty popular.

The thing is, the threads complaining about this deck are largely filled with people who don't care about it. The deck has plenty of openers that aren't explosive and is boardstalled by your typical Goyf or Angler.

They're also (probably) terrible against Burn (which is always everywhere), bad against Moon decks (which are usually hanging around) and despite Thorn/Chalice, are bad against a variety of combo decks. I wouldn't be surprised if Dredge and Shardless performed abnormally well this tourny.

Shardless is a difficult match-up from what I've seen so far because they run a bunch of problematic cards. But I'm in the Wx Midrange instead of the Aggro Eldrazi camp, which offers better solutions to various of those problems.

Burn depends alot if they hit their PoP or not and if the Eldrazi can deploy their Chalices at the right time. Lifegain from Jitte can also help.

Moon decks depend on how fast they can deploy it (the Wg build has various outs against Moon). I would be more worried about From the Ashes because that card annihilated me twice post-board in the Miracles match-up where Blood Moon was more a nuisance compared to that.

I'd also like to know against what combo decks you think Eldrazi is weak against. Fast Marit Lage in Lands is definitely a problem and I assume Painter is abyssal due to the combination of fast Moon effects AND Painter hosing your mana, while Ensnaring Bridge is another anti-Eldrazi card. From what I've seen in playtesting so far, Storm and Reanimator are favorable and the Sneak & Show match-up is heavily in favor of White Eldrazi due to hate card overload (Karakas, Eldrazi Displacer and Post-SB Containment Priest). Can't really comment on Elves due to not enough playtesting, especially after upping the Priest count. If you want to count Infect as Combo deck, it becomes quite managable with enough Displacers and Jittes in your 75.

The best angles of attack against Eldrazi are problably:
- (fast) Moon effects
- recurring LD (multiple Wastelands, Port, Loam, KotR)
- From the Ashes (one-sided Armageddon in Miracles, definitely a sleeper card)
- roadblocks, e.g. Goyfs, Strix, Mentor, Batterskull, etc.

However, many of those cards are far from unsolvable. I'm merely naming what can hurt alot if not answered.

@Stuart: Dredge seems (very) favorable with the White build, but then again, I run 3 RiP and 3 Priests post-board. Played 2x LED and 2x Manaless Dredge so far, went 3-1 in matches (should have been 4-0, but I completely threw away a match against Manaless due to playing like an idiot with Warping Wail twice, giving away the games I should have won otherwise).
GY-hate aside, Chalice @1 and Sphere effects can also be pretty effective against them.

[MGB]

I fully expect at least 50% of the field to be Eldrazi decks at SCG Philly.

I'm adjusting my MD and SB to combat this menace.

[supremePINEAPPLE]

I really hope you are being sarcastic.

[Barook]

I fully expect at least 50% of the field to be Eldrazi decks at SCG Philly.

I'm adjusting my MD and SB to combat this menace.

What the percentage of UR Delver at GP New Jersey at Day 1? That might a rough estimation of people going in with a "budget" deck ported from Modern.

[MGB]

Of course I'm guilty of hyperbole, but the hype that this deck is getting in Legacy now is out of control. Everybody and his grandmother will be like "So i got these Ancient Tombs and City of Traitors and this Modern Eldrazi deck lying around, hey, why don't I register LegacyDrazi at the Open, guys?"

If you're playing Eldrazi at any upcoming Legacy event and you're planning to be "rogue" and take the field by surprise, that ship has long ago sailed. People are going to know exactly what they're playing against and they will probably have specific sideboard options and gameplans for it now.

[hymnyou]

Decks I'm looking to be prepared beat for me going into SCG Philly are:
Delver
Miracles
Eldrazi
----------------
Everything else (aka I want to do something that feels powerful to deal with everything else)

I wouldn't play a deck unless I'm comfortable with at least 2 of those 3 matchups at the top

Lands, NE loves lands.

[tescrin]

reply

I'm hardly an expert on its MUs; so take my guesses with a grain of salt.

Explanation:
* Painter - As you said. They have a bunch of cards that seem very good mained that are the exact kinds of plays that insta-gib the deck. I don't think there's a relevant thing you can do here OTD or OTP without knowing beforehand; and even then; just REBing your lands seems double-amazing. Seems abysmal.

* Dredge - The lack of tutors and cantrips in Eldrazi leaves them more open to being T1'd/T2'd I think. I could be wrong. The white version is certainly better here. Most dredge I face is the LED version; can't speak for GPs.

* Shardless - I think we agreed. Basically everything that shardless does is relevant against the deck while being better at every angle of attack in the midrange fight. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 65 or 70 in their favor, but again, haven't gotten to watch/play it. To busy brewing garbage lol

* Burn - I could see it either way. Basically, how many times did you Tomb yourself and did they draw PoP; as you said.


Other combo you ask? I think the more "T1 oriented" combo decks are well positioned against eldrazi (Tin Fins, TES, Belcher, others?) and that the midrange and Delver MUs (going based off chatter on the forums) are probably pretty even; mostly on the back of inconsistency and a very vulnerable manabase.

I imagine Miracles, Sneakshow, and any other Red Splash will be packing Moons too.

[MGB]

I'm hardly an expert on its MUs; so take my guesses with a grain of salt.

Explanation:
* Painter - As you said. They have a bunch of cards that seem very good mained that are the exact kinds of plays that insta-gib the deck. I don't think there's a relevant thing you can do here OTD or OTP without knowing beforehand; and even then; just REBing your lands seems double-amazing. Seems abysmal.

* Dredge - The lack of tutors and cantrips in Eldrazi leaves them more open to being T1'd/T2'd I think. I could be wrong. The white version is certainly better here. Most dredge I face is the LED version; can't speak for GPs.

* Shardless - I think we agreed. Basically everything that shardless does is relevant against the deck while being better at every angle of attack in the midrange fight. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 65 or 70 in their favor, but again, haven't gotten to watch/play it. To busy brewing garbage lol

* Burn - I could see it either way. Basically, how many times did you Tomb yourself and did they draw PoP; as you said.


Other combo you ask? I think the more "T1 oriented" combo decks are well positioned against eldrazi (Tin Fins, TES, Belcher, others?) and that the midrange and Delver MUs (going based off chatter on the forums) are probably pretty even; mostly on the back of inconsistency and a very vulnerable manabase.

I imagine Miracles, Sneakshow, and any other Red Splash will be packing Moons too.

From my testing with the deck online, Lands seems like a brutal matchup for Eldrazi because they have Wastelock and Eldrazi can't effectively answer Marit Lage; both Sneak'n'Show and Reanimator are problematic matchups because Eldrazi can't race Griselbrand/Emrakul.

[Barook]

From my testing with the deck online, Lands seems like a brutal matchup for Eldrazi because they have Wastelock and Eldrazi can't effectively answer Marit Lage; both Sneak'n'Show and Reanimator are problematic matchups because Eldrazi can't race Griselbrand/Emrakul.

Wastelock and fast Marit Lage are definitely huge problems for Eldrazi, which makes it one of its worst match-ups. The best way to handle Marit Lage is Displacer since they need to kill it first. Karakas is okay, but can easily be Wasted or Ported.

I can imagine that the Mono C struggles alot with Sneak & Show and Reanimator alot since it lacks the outs white has. And not all Mono C versions run Endbringer, which seems slow.

IOther combo you ask? I think the more "T1 oriented" combo decks are well positioned against eldrazi (Tin Fins, TES, Belcher, others?) and that the midrange and Delver MUs (going based off chatter on the forums) are probably pretty even; mostly on the back of inconsistency and a very vulnerable manabase.

Tin Fins and Belcher sound like matches decided mainly by the dice roll. Haven't encountered TES yet, only ANT.

[tescrin]

Given that it is apparently Lands/D&T that are good against it, do we expect other Port/Wasteland decks to maybe do well at some point? If Eldrazi did well, could Goblins be a thing!? Old-Style Merfolk!?

I would laugh heartily if the Eldrazi are what made goblins playable