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Thread: Predictable Report from a GPT for GPT Columbus

  1. #1
    Predictor of Miracles
    Minniehajj's Avatar
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    Predictable Report from a GPT for GPT Columbus

    Event Report: GPT Columbus 3/24

    Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening!
    We had the first Grand Prix trial here in Columbus on 3/24 and it was a great time! I know the legacy scene in Columbus inside and out so I composed a matchup analysis for possible decks of the people I expected to show up, as well as a comprehensive metagame analysis. I only had two real truths going into this event in regards to what I wanted to play: I wanted to play miracles (of course =P) and I wanted to play predict. As one of the original innovators of the predict build, I still hold true to the theories behind the build, but as decks became more hateful to the card “counterbalance,” we needed to adjust a bit to the metagame
    Enter Entreat the Angels:
    We came back to entreat when the eldrazi deck started taking off the ground, because stock predict just couldn’t handle this new menace and how the metagame changed in order to adapt to it. Stock predict was meh vs lands and other loam decks, but crushed other blue decks, and now, since the loam decks are more powerful than ever, it’s time to adapt. For reference, below is what I refer to as “stock predict”, as built by my friend Mackan on this forum:

    4 Snapcaster Mage
    3 Tundra
    1 Volcanic Island
    1 Mountain
    4 Island
    1 Plains
    4 Scalding Tarn
    4 Flooded Strand
    2 Arid Mesa
    2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
    2 Predict
    4 Ponder
    4 Brainstorm
    4 Swords to Plowshares
    4 Force of Will
    4 Terminus
    4 Sensei's Divining Top
    4 Counterbalance
    2 Spell Snare
    2 Counterspell
    SB: 1 Containment Priest
    SB: 2 Red Elemental Blast
    SB: 2 Wear // Tear
    SB: 2 Vendilion Clique
    SB: 2 Flusterstorm
    SB: 2 Blood Moon
    SB: 2 Stoneforge Mystic
    SB: 1 Batterskull
    SB: 1 Pyroblast

    At first glance, you’ll notice that this list is devoid of any main deck win conditions, like mentor or entreat the angels. This was due to us wanting to maximize and abuse the power of a super streamlined engine with predict, essentially doing its best Dig Through Time impression. Super streamlined, super controlly, draw cards and win the game. That was the essential concept and it worked flawlessly, to a point. It was amazing against other blue decks, and especially crushing in the mirror. So much so that others started to adapt the card to their own, but we were still advantaged, simply because of how clean this list was.
    However, Oath of the Gatewatch came out, and with it, the Eldrazi menace. We could no longer rely on controlling the game, because while we are attempting to establish control, we get punched in the face by recurring 4/4s and 5/5s and that’s just not something we’re well equipped to deal with. In the meantime, loam decks started seeing a strong resurgence, because of how well equipped they happened to be at dealing with this new eldrazi menace. If you look at the list up above, you’ll notice that there’s only 1 Plains, making lands a fairly difficult matchup. We had to change, we had to adapt, so we moved to a 21 land build like the days of old, with entreat the angels as the win condition.

    Now I had the win condition, the rest of the cards needed to fall into place, and I had to base a lot of things on what I anticipated the metagame to be. With much deliberation, and lots of research, I arrived at the following list:

    3 Snapcaster Mage
    3 Tundra
    3 Volcanic Island
    4 Island
    2 Plains
    1 Polluted Delta
    2 Scalding Tarn
    4 Flooded Strand
    2 Arid Mesa
    2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
    2 Predict
    4 Ponder
    4 Brainstorm
    4 Swords to Plowshares
    4 Force of Will
    4 Terminus
    4 Sensei's Divining Top
    4 Counterbalance
    1 Spell Snare
    1 Counterspell
    2 Entreat the Angels

    SB: 1 Containment Priest
    SB: 2 Red Elemental Blast
    SB: 1 Pyroblast
    SB: 1 Wear // Tear
    SB: 1 Council's Judgment
    SB: 2 Vendilion Clique
    SB: 2 Flusterstorm
    SB: 1 Surgical Extraction
    SB: 2 Stoneforge Mystic
    SB: 1 Batterskull
    SB: 1 Izzet Staticaster (flex slot)

    Some of the card choices are pretty easy to get to, but the shell is pretty similar to the original (we went through many iterations of the deck, but this is where we ended up, with the exceptional help of Exallium and Mackan).
    The staticaster was a metagame call for what I expected here, less gy and loam decks, more DnT, x-1, and mirror decks. I think it’s objectively correct to be playing the second surgical extraction instead of the staticaster, because the new lands deck is a huge problem and surgical is a must-see card in the matchup.
    We also cut blood moon for a few reasons, the most important being that the decks that blood moon is good against now know that its coming and are adjusting accordingly: eldrazi is now splashing a color, lands has decays AND grips, shardless plays and fetches more basics, etc. More often, the threat of landing a blood moon from our side is one of the most polarizing things within the matchup, as it often acts as one of the most important cards. The problem with blood moon is essentially what I mentioned before, and that it’s not a card that comes in against matchups that moon naturally isn’t good against, like the mirror, etc, making sideboarding awkward in many regards. I like to view my deck as 60 cards that are ideal in every scenario, post board against the field, and this is how I attempted to design this. Losing blood moon, but wanting a card that’s good against the blood moon decks while also having a more applicable usage in the rest of the field.

    Re-enter Stoneforge mystic:

    Thanks to Exallium’s great idea, we tried reintroducing stoneforge mystic back into the sideboard, since it was the card that was brought in the most in prior iterations of the deck, much more so than mentor as it’s a great defensive card, costs only 2 mana (critical in the mirror), and provides a very important source of lifegain against delver decks, burn, etc. It worked out beautifully and the decklist was set.
    I won’t go into too much detail on how we arrived at the rest of the deck, but it should be fairly easy to understand, feel free to ask questions about specific card choices!

    NOTE: I gave Dragonslayer_90 the original, correct decklist for this event, but I swapped out the second surgical for the staticaster last minute, and was unable to communicate the changes to him in time for the event, but it didn’t end up mattering anyway

    The event:

    27 people showed up to battle, which was an amazing turnout, considering it was during the middle of the week and the legacy scene in Columbus wasn’t quite as strong as it used to be. I felt like we had a great idea of what to expect going into this event, and felt confident about our deck selection.

    Round 1: vs Esper Mentor Landstill
    Played against a player I was already familiar with, playing a deck that was a bit of a brew: Esper Mentor, but with a standstill/myth realized/man land plan added into it. A deck designed to be able to play the long game pretty easily, but also has some decently aggressive starts.

    Game 1: He had a pretty decent early start, with a t1 myth realized plus probe, into a t2 standstill. I eventually forced him to pop the standstill after getting hit a few times by a 2/2 myth realized and a factory, but putting cb on the stack. He didn’t find the force and I had the lock established. Easy enough to find a terminus, a plow, and locked the game up with a Jace.

    Sideboarding:
    -4 FoW. -1 Terminus, -1 Entreat the Angels, -1 Spell Snare, -1 Counterspell
    +2 SfM, +1 Batterskull, +2 REB, +1 Pyroblast, +1 W//T, +1 Staticaster

    He’s a discard deck with standstills. I know him to also have mentors and also expected x-1’s like cliques, and bitterblossom.

    Game 2: He opens with probe into bitterblossom, I w//t it, he follows up with pithing needle, then standstill. I snapcaster to flashback w//t on needle, (I have a top in play), and force him to crack his own standstill or otherwise die to the snapcaster mage. I draw the cards and crush him with the lock the following turn

    Round 2: vs Jund
    This round, I was against a good friend of mine and a great player, on Jund. Tradionally a rather difficult matchup for miracles since cb is a stoneblank, it was going to be a rough match. Or, so I thought.

    Game 1: He keeps 2 lands, doesn’t find others, but has a steady stream of goyfs and Bobs. I live long enough to get a miracle terminus, followed up immediately by a blind entreat off of a Predict to seal the game.

    Sideboarding:
    -4 FoW, -4 CB
    +1 CJ, +1 W//T, +3 SFM package, +1 Surgical, +2 V Clique

    Game 2: I do a lot of irrelevant things, he lands a quick Sylvan Library, and, at one point, he has 2 bobs and a goyf in play. I can’t find a terminus at all, but he goes down quite low. I eventually land a Jace, brainstorm, find 2 eta’s and a top, and the game is extremely easy after that. I spent a lot of time preparing for the matchup, but ETA is ETA, the best trump of them all.

    Round 3: vs Belcher
    This was against another good friend of mine, and he was on the legacy deck he always plays: Belcher.
    Game 1: He keeps a 7, I keep a 7, I have force of will, and I feel decent. He eventually hard casts 2 Simian Spirit guides, I have cb in play, but no top or brainstorms. I proceed to go down to 4 life from this spirit guides, having been unable to find any cantrips, or removal spells. I manage to deal with the guides cleverly with Jace, but he has drawn too many cards at this point, and combo kills me with empty. What a weird game….

    Sideboarding:
    -2 JTMS, -4 StP, -2 Plains, -2 EtA, -2 Predict
    +1 W//T, +2 SFM, +2 V Clique, +1 Surgical, +2 Flusterstorm, +1 Staticaster, +3 Blasts

    I had too much stuff I wanted to take out so I just brought in three blasts to stop his probes… or something. I also anticipated him being on the Goblin Welder sideboard plan, so surgical would be important.

    Game 2: I lock him on t3 and have infinite counterspells, he dies to a vendilion clique

    Game 3: Very similar to game 2, but I surgical away both empty the warrens and charbelcher and kill him with a snapcaster mage.

    Round 4: Vs Burn
    This was against a guy that was relatively new to legacy, but had plenty of hate against miracles. I respect burn a lot, and I knew that this would be a tough matchup, but my specific sideboard cards in this matchup would be extremely important.

    Game 1: Don’t remember the details too much, but I just remember being at 10 and then at zero within the first 5 turns.

    Sideboarding:
    -2 EtA, -2 JTMS, -1 Volcanic Island, -2 Predict
    +1 W//T, + 1CJ, +3 SFM package, +2 Flusterstorm

    Game 2: He has a very aggressive start, I manage to stabilize at 5 and stick a Stoneforge. I defended it well enough and it won me the game

    Game 3: I SFM’d him on turn 2, he tried to bolt it, I forced, I put in batterskull, he tried to smash to smithereens, I had the snare. GG.

    He played quite well, sequencing was impressive. He would go on to win the entire thing (spoilers, sorry =P)

    Round 5: I was undefeated, it was the last round of swiss, I was paired against Dragonslayer (he was 3-0-1) and we drew into top 8, looked around at the other matches, and hung out.

    Our top 8 was quite varied:

    2 Miracles, 1 Dark Lands, 1 Belcher (my earlier opponent), 1 BUG Depths, 1 Omnitell, 1 Infect, 1 Burn (also my earlier opponent).

    I was #1 seed (Dragonslayer was #2), and got paired against another acquaintance, on Infect.

    Quarterfinals:
    Game 1: Didn’t have much on my notes here, I believe I got killed on t3 with force backup.

    Sideboarding:
    -2 Predict, -1 Snare. -1 CS, -2 JTMS, -2 ETA
    +2 V Clique, +2 Red Blast, +1 Staticaster, +2 Flusterstorm, +1 W//T

    Game 2: I live past turn 3 and stabilize. Staticaster was insane here, as I had gotten my plows surgically extracted…. What an annoying card.

    Game 3: I get killed on turn 2.

    Thus, unceremoniously, my awesome streak was cut short by infect, which isn’t a great matchup, but, if we can survive past turn 3, we have a decent shot of winning the game.
    Dragonslayer would win his quarterfinal, but ultimately get Boseijued by Omnitell (3 copies post board !?!?!?) and thus our event ended. The burn player would eventually go on to win the event by nut drawing Omnitell.
    Overall, I sincerely believe that we had the best deck in the room, and I wouldn’t change a single card. We got unlucky against 2 unfavorable matchups, and demolished everyone else. It was a relatively small field, however, so while the results are great, more data is absolutely required. I’ll be taking this decklist to MTGO Leagues and we’ll see where we get.
    NOTE: Mackan played in two events this past weekend with 74/75 cards. Instead of staticaster, his flex slot was Supreme Verdict. He would top 8 the first event and win the second, and the deck performed admirably.
    This is what I believe to be the face of Predictable Miracles v2.0 and I think it certainly has some legs. Feel free to chime in with questions, your own experiences with the deck if you’ve played it, etc.

    Props: SFM was amazing for both Dragonslayer and I, best card in our sideboard
    Slops: Getting nut drawn by Infect :(


    Tune in for reports within the coming weeks, this is likely the deck I’ll be sticking with for SCG Columbus’s Legacy classic as well as another GPT the following weekend. Cheers!

    EDIT: You'll find the other Top 8 Decklists here: http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=11962&f=LE
    Last edited by Minniehajj; 03-28-2016 at 09:29 AM.

  2. #2
    The Agonistic Antagonist
    CutthroatCasual's Avatar
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    Re: Predictable Report from a GPT for GPT Columbus

    You seem to be siding out Predict a lot.
    The purpose of any moat is to impede attack. Some are filled with water, some with thistles. Some are filled with things best left unseen.

  3. #3

    Re: Predictable Report from a GPT for GPT Columbus

    Mainly vs combo and comboesque decks.

    Congratz on your finish, I started a league yesterday day with it (only change is 2 Mentor and 1 Cavern in place of the SFM Package, but if you say it's that good I'll run it next league), will report back on it's performance.

  4. #4
    Predictor of Miracles
    Minniehajj's Avatar
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    Re: Predictable Report from a GPT for GPT Columbus

    Quote Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual View Post
    You seem to be siding out Predict a lot.
    Lol, yes because, as I said originally, predict is amazing with decks that intend to go long, but very meh against tempo and aggro/combo based strategies, most of which I faced off against. Against Jund, predict literally won me the game, as it does against shardless and the mirror. Predict is amazing, our results speak for themselves, and the card is all over MTGO.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipp2293 View Post
    Mainly vs combo and comboesque decks.

    Congratz on your finish, I started a league yesterday day with it (only change is 2 Mentor and 1 Cavern in place of the SFM Package, but if you say it's that good I'll run it next league), will report back on it's performance.
    Thanks! I strongly advocate for playing SFM over mentor in almost every scenario, I specifically highlighted its strengths in the report. Best of luck, and keep us all posted!

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