Belcher on an upswing?

[iatee]

Okay, did some basic math on excel. This is all based on (1-x)^y where x is the % of blue decks and y is the rounds. The number is the % chance you'll have never had to face a blue deck by the end of that round. If anyone can come up with a more sophisticated version of this I would be interested.

Anyway, looking at this, if you play 3 round events at your local store, and the store has shifted from 60% blue decks to 40% blue decks, you get a fairly huge boost, going from only 6% chance of totally dodging blue all night to 21%. However, take those %s to a 10 round event, and the differences are no longer nearly as meaningful, since your chances at dodging blue are now under .01% regardless of whether it's 40% or 60% of the meta.

I think I actually guessed wrong w/ the sample numbers I gave + a 6 round event.

[Crimhead]

Belcher did take 1st in a 221 player event last weekend!

http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=20191

[btm10]

That's quite interesting. And looking at TCDecks, D&T was the best performing archetype for April. Very, very interesting.

[Koby]

I always bring Belcher to my LGS when decks with FoW are a low % of the meta. However last time my opponent needed two FoWs AND and ancient grudge to beat me. Belcher is more resilient than people think.

This. Your opponent is 40% likely to have FoW in their opening hand. That should mean you can win even against blue decks at least 50% of the time on average.

[ESG]

This. Your opponent is 40% likely to have FoW in their opening hand. That should mean you can win even against blue decks at least 50% of the time on average.

The issue with Belcher is that it doesn't necessarily convert those opportunities into wins, so we can't just look at percentages or presence of blue-based decks. Making a bunch of goblins on Turn 1 or Turn 2 is a common play and has a much lower rate of success than dropping out the cannon. Cards like Terminus and Toxic Deluge are commonly played and are strong answers to half of Belcher's win conditions. Deathrite Shaman allows decks to get that crucial mana to be able to drop out a 3 CMC answer to race a T1 goblin horde. Less commonly played answers would be Tabernacle, Pyroclasm, Izzet Statiscaster, Engineered Explosives, Zealous Persecution, Engineered Plague, and Elephant Grass. We also shouldn't overlook getting raced as an effective foil. Storm, Tin Fins, Reanimator, All Spells and Lands are all adept at racing goblins. I personally favor nonblue decks, and over the past five years or so, I have a strongly positive record against Belcher. I've also tested with the deck and against the deck at various points and was never impressed enough to play it in a real event. The deck gives its pilot very few actual decisions, and even when your good seven-card hand should theoretically get you there, it often doesn't. Belcher's viability is improved when fewer people are playing blue-based decks, but its viability is considerably worse now than in earlier years of the format.

[btm10]

For what it's worth: 2 more copies of Belcher in the SCG Milwaukee t16 (3rd and 12th). It's a pretty wonky list, with Goblins, Junk Nic Fit, a BG Midrange deck with 4 Geth's Verdict, and Slivers all represented.

[iamajellydonut]

a BG Midrange deck with 4 Geth's Verdict

More importantly, two Woodland Cemeterys.

Edit: Jesus Christ there's four Pithing Needles in the sideboard.

[MiraclesWizard]

belcher is one more of the more inexpensive legacy decks you can build. Frankly with the way modern has been tanking in terms of popularity and standard is overpriced....legacy is the format of choice. There are high levels of entry from a financial stand point but you can get in with Dredge, Belcher, Burn to name a few of the less expensive decks.

I see legacy popularity growing in my area...

[Richard Cheese]

More importantly, two Woodland Cemeterys.

Edit: Jesus Christ there's four Pithing Needles in the sideboard.

Making Legacy Great Again.

[Crimhead]

For what it's worth: 2 more copies of Belcher in the SCG Milwaukee t16 (3rd and 12th).

How many players? The SCG "Classics" tend to be fairly small and therefore highly variable.

[iamajellydonut]

How many players? The SCG "Classics" tend to be fairly small and therefore highly variable.

117.

For reference (in order of most recent), Baltimore fielded 97 players. Indianapolis had 163. Louisville had 93. Columbus had 98. Atlanta had 64. Charlotte had 75.

[btm10]

There are some very unusual deckbuilding decisions all over that top 8. The Esper Stoneblade list had a 1-of Esper Charm (which seems reasonable, tbh), just Nic Fit at all (I have no idea what counts as unusual in that shell, but it seems 'normal' by the bizarre standards of the archetype), the BG deck...

[MasterBlaster]

Belcher did take 1st in a 221 player event last weekend!

http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=20191

I'm so happy to see this. Belcher is my favorite deck and I haven't really played in a few years. It's nice to see a deck that is so close to my old list. I run black for Spoils of the Vault and Dark Ritual. My list doesn't have Gitaxian probe or that 2 for 3 red ritual.

[Sloshthedark]

More importantly, two Woodland Cemeterys.

Acid Rain-proof deckbuilding...


http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...?DeckID=102518

I'm wondering what can you confuse for a Balusrade spy

[ESG]

http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...?DeckID=102518

I'm wondering what can you confuse for a Balusrade spy

Xantid Swarm? Guttural Response? Spoils of the Vault? The other 3 LEDs? I have no idea. Also, there are only 11 cards listed in that sideboard.

Maybe the plan is to "accidentally" drop the Spies face up during sideboarding so your opponent dilutes his or her deck with graveyard hate. I kind of want that to be the explanation.

[Julian23]

A friend of mine who usually plays Burn is going to launch the people's cannon in Annecy. It's gonna be glorious. With everyone and their mother trying to one-up themselves in grindy lategame wars following the Eldrazi invasion, Belcher might be the hero this format deserves.

[iamajellydonut]

On second thought, let's not go to Milwaukee. 'Tis a silly place.

[Crimhead]

Belcher might be the hero this format deserves.

FoW is still a card, and Chalice decks are doing pretty well. I think we'll see Belcher steal the occasional event, but not much more. It would be pretty cool though if we could have a cyclic meta!

[Plm]

Belcher might be the hero this format deserves.

http://www.bazaar-of-moxen.com/en/co...ent=18&evt=18#

It might be

[Barook]

http://www.bazaar-of-moxen.com/en/co...ent=18&evt=18#

It might be

The graphic is false. Eldrazi utterly dismantled Belcher in the finals if you watched the livestream. Like Chalice @0, @1 AND @2 G1 and Pithing Needle on Belcher + Warping Wail on Burning Wish G2.

Edit: It's also questionable how the Elves player with 78 (!!!) MD cards made top 8.